Search Results (1,077)

The Larimichthys crocea represents a critically important economic marine species in China’s East Yellow Sea. However, its populations have experienced significant decline due to overexploitation. Despite implemented conservation measures—including stock enhancement, spawning ground protection, and seasonal fishing moratoria—the recovery of yellow croaker resources remains markedly slow. To address this, our study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to evaluate and characterize the habitat selection patterns of Larimichthys crocea, thereby providing a theoretical foundation for scientifically informed stock enhancement and resource recovery strategies. Species occurrence data were compiled from field surveys conducted during April and November (2019–2023), supplemented with records from the GBIF database and peer-reviewed literature. Concurrent environmental variables, including primary productivity, current velocity, depth, temperature, salinity, silicate, nitrate, phosphate, and pH, were obtained from the Copernicus and NOAA databases. After rigorous screening, 136 distribution points (April) and 369 points (November) were retained for analysis. The model performance was robust, with an AUC (Area Under the Curve) value of 0.935 for April (2019–2023) and 0.905 for November (2019–2023), indicating excellent predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.9). April (2019–2023): Nitrate, salinity, phosphate, and silicate were identified as the primary environmental factors influencing habitat suitability. November (2019–2023): Silicate, salinity, nitrate, and primary productivity emerged as the dominant drivers. Spatially, Larimichthys crocea exhibited high-density distributions in offshore regions of Zhejiang and Jiangsu, particularly near the Yangtze River estuary. Populations were also associated with island-reef systems, forming continuous distributions along Zhejiang’s offshore waters. In Jiangsu, aggregations were concentrated between Nantong and Yancheng. This study delineates habitat suitability zones for Larimichthys crocea, offering a scientific basis for optimizing stock enhancement programs, designing targeted conservation measures, and establishing marine protected areas. Our findings enable policymakers to develop sustainable fisheries management strategies, ensuring the long-term viability of this ecologically and economically vital species. Full article

Ecological restoration of the Loess Plateau plays a pivotal role in mitigating land degradation and promoting regional sustainability. In this study, landscape pattern metrics were integrated into the MaxEnt model to evaluate the influence of landscape configuration on restoration planning. Nine representative species from three vegetation strata—herbs, shrubs, and trees—were selected based on ecological suitability. A comprehensive set of variables, including environmental, anthropogenic, and landscape metrics, was constructed for modeling. Results demonstrate that incorporating landscape metrics significantly enhanced the spatial explanatory power, providing a robust supplement to traditional ecological restoration assessments. Distinct responses to landscape structure were observed among vegetation types: herb species were more sensitive to patch aggregation and connectivity, shrubs preferred regular edges and larger patch size, while tree species favored extensive, low-fragmentation core habitats. Vertical structure optimization revealed that while large areas were suitable for single vegetation layers, composite vegetation configurations were more appropriate in certain central and southern subregions. These findings underscore the importance of landscape structure in guiding restoration strategies and serve as a basis for designing ecologically coherent and spatially targeted vegetation restoration plans on the Loess Plateau. Full article

Due to its ecological functions, huge economic benefits, and excellent nutritional and physiological activities, Lentinula edodes is a very popular edible fungus in Asia, especially in China. Changes in the distribution and population of wild L. edodes play an important role in conservation, variety improvements, and breeding. This investigation detected wild L. edodes in 28 provinces and municipalities in China, encompassing approximately 300 regions and natural reserves. MaxEnt analysis of 53 effective distribution locations indicated that host plants, Bio19 (precipitation in the coldest quarter), Bio10 (mean temperature of the warmest quarter), and Bio17 (precipitation in the driest quarter) made the most critical contributions to this model. The areas of suitable and highly suitable habitats were 55.386 × 10⁴ km² and 88.493 × 10⁴ km², respectively. Under four climate change scenarios, the L. edodes distribution was predicted to decrease and the suitable habitat area shifted to the north and west of China. The decrease in highly suitable habitat area ranged from 21.155% in the 2070s under the ssp1-2.6 scenario to 90.522% in the 2050s under the ssp3-7.5 scenario. This sharp reduction in habitat areas suggests that we should take measures to prevent the deterioration of the environment and climate and thus to ensure the survival of L. edodes. Full article

Understanding the climate change impacts on the geographical distribution of plant species is vital for biodiversity conservation. Lycium ruthenicum, a second-grade protected plant in China, holds considerable medicinal and ecological value; however, its potential habitat distribution under climate change remains uncertain. By utilizing occurrence records and geographical and environmental data, we optimized a maximum entropy model and evaluated the current and future potential habitat suitability of L. ruthenicum in China. The main results were as follows: (1) The distribution of L. ruthenicum was primarily influenced by the precipitation of the warmest quarter, topsoil base saturation, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and minimum temperature of the coldest month. (2) Under the current conditions, the potential suitable area of L. ruthenicum was approximately 2.25 × 10⁶ km² in China, predominantly distributed in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia. (3) An obvious reduction in the predicted suitable area of L. ruthenicum was found under future climate scenarios, with the centroid primarily shifting northeastward. These findings highlight the potential vulnerability of this medicinally and ecologically important species and underscore the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies to ensure its long-term survival. Full article

Raptors, being at top of the food chain, serve as important models to study the impact of changing climate, as they are more vulnerable due to their unique ecology. They are vulnerable to extinction, with 52% species declining population and 18% are threatened globally. The effect of climate change on raptors is poorly studied in the Eastern Himalayan region. The present study offers a complete investigation of climate change effects on the raptors in the northeast region of the Eastern Himalayas, employing ensemble species distribution modeling. The future predictions were employed to model the climate change across two socioeconomic pathways (SSP) i.e. SSP245 and SSP585 for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. Specifically, five algorithms were employed for the ensemble model, viz. boosted regression tree (BRT), generalized linear model (GLM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and random forest (RF). The study highlights worrying results, as only 10.5% area of the NE region is presently suitable for Falco severus, 11.4% for the critically endangered Gyps tenuirostris, and a mere 6.9% area is presently suitable for the endangered Haliaeetus leucoryphus. The most influential covariates were precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month, and temperature seasonality. Future projection revealed reduction of 33–41% in suitable habitats for F. severus, G. tenuirostris is expected to lose 53–96% of its suitable habitats, and H. leucoryphus has lost nearly 94–99% of its suitable habitats. Such decline indicates apparent habitat fragmentation, with shrinking habitat patches. Full article

The critically endangered African wild ass is found in low population densities and there may be as few as 600 individuals in the Danakil Desert of Ethiopia and Eritrea. An understanding of suitable habitats is important for prioritizing the conservation and management of the African wild ass. In this study, we recorded presence locations of the African wild ass and independently prepared environmental covariates to identify suitable habitats using the maximum entropy (Maxent) model. Model performances were high, with the area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.927 and 0.950 for wet and dry seasons, respectively. The predicted moderately suitable habitat area extent was greater during the wet season (15,223 km²) than during the dry season (6052 km²). Precipitation, temperature, and distance from water sources were vital variables for the wet season, while distance from water sources and distance from the settlements were important determinant covariates for the dry season. This information prioritizes where protected areas should be established for African wild ass conservation and also indicates potential new undocumented locations to guide surveys in the Danakil Desert of the Afar Region, Ethiopia. Full article

Wild orchids, valued for their beauty and economic importance, are facing the challenges of distribution contraction and range shifts from climate change. The rare Cymbidium cyperifolium (class II in the List of National Key Protected Wild Plants in China, Vulnerable on the China Biodiversity Red List) remains understudied regarding its responses to climate variability. Utilizing an enhanced MaxEnt model, we predicted suitable habitats under diverse climate scenarios, revealing a potential distribution of 52.37 × 10⁴ km², concentrated in eastern Yunnan, western Guangxi, the Guizhou border, and southern Hainan. Cymbidium cyperifolium is sensitive to climate change, and temperature annual range (Bio 7) contributes a significant 77.42% of the distribution probability (i.e., habitat suitability), highlighting temperature’s pivotal influence on its distribution. Although the overall potential distribution area and low-suitability regions in China are predicted to decrease, medium and high-suitability areas are expected to expand. The center of mass of the high-altitude habitat is concentrated in southeastern Yunnan Province, migrating just slightly, yet tending westward and northeastward. Based on these findings, we recommend the expansion of existing protected areas or the establishment of new ones for C. cyperifolium, particularly in eastern Yunnan and western Guangxi. Additionally, our research can serve as a reference for the ex situ conservation of C. cyperifolium and other orchids with similar ecological habits, underscoring the broader implications in biodiversity preservation efforts. Full article

Carpomya vesuviana (Diptera: Tephritidae), a significant invasive forestry pest of Zizyphus crops worldwide, has spread globally across jujube-growing regions, causing substantial yield losses and economic damage. In China, it is classified as both an imported and forestry quarantine pest. Existing risk assessments have primarily focused on the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of C. vesuviana, but its economic impact on host plants is unknown. Therefore, we used an optimised MaxEnt model based on species distribution records and relevant environmental variables to predict the PGDs of C. vesuviana under current and future climate scenarios. Meanwhile, we used the @RISK stochastic model to assess the economic impact of this pest on the Chinese jujube industry under various scenarios. The results showed that the human influence index (HII), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and precipitation during the driest month (Bio14) were the significant environmental variables affecting species distribution. Under the current climatic scenario, the total suitable area of C. vesuviana reached 2171.39 × 10⁴ km², which is mainly distributed in southern and western Asia, southern Europe, central North America, western Africa, and eastern South America. Potentially suitable habitats will increase and shift to the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere under future climatic scenarios. Under the no-control scenario, C. vesuviana could cause losses of 15,687 million CNY to the jujube industry in China. However, control measures could have saved losses of 5047 million CNY. This study provides a theoretical basis for preventive monitoring and integrated management of C. vesuviana globally and helps reduce its economic impact on the jujube industry in China. Full article

Comprehending the effects of climate change on the range of endangered species is essential for formulating successful conservation strategies. This research examines two nationally protected dung beetle species (Heliocopris dominus and Heliocopris bucephalus) in China to forecast their probable habitat range under present and future climate scenarios. Employing MaxEnt modeling with validated occurrence records and environmental variables, we discerned critical factors affecting their distribution and anticipated changes in habitat suitability. Results reveal that isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and annual precipitation are the principal environmental drivers. Presently, appropriate habitats are primarily located in southern Yunnan and Hainan, with future forecasts indicating a northward extension into additional areas. These findings offer critical insights for choosing conservation zones for these vulnerable species amid shifting climate conditions. Full article

In Ecuador, the transmission of dengue has steadily increased in recent decades, particularly in coastal cities like Manta, where the conditions are favorable for the proliferation of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. The objective of this study was to model the spatial distribution of dengue transmission risk in Manta, a coastal city in Ecuador with consistently high incidence rates. A total of 148 georeferenced dengue cases from 2018 to 2021 were collected, and environmental and socioeconomic variables were incorporated into a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Additionally, climate and social zoning were performed using a multi-criteria model in TerrSet. The MaxEnt model demonstrated excellent predictive ability (training AUC = 0.916; test AUC = 0.876) and identified population density, sewer system access, and distance to rivers as the primary predictors. Three high-risk clusters were identified in the southern, northwestern, and northeastern parts of the city, while the coastal strip showed lower suitability due to low rainfall and vegetation. These findings reveal the strong spatial heterogeneity of dengue risk at the neighborhood level and provide operational information for targeted interventions. This approach can support more efficient surveillance, resource allocation, and community action in coastal urban areas affected by vector-borne diseases. Full article

Climate change continues to threaten global biodiversity, making it essential to assess how keystone species may shift their distributions and to use these findings to inform conservation planning. This study evaluated the current and future habitat suitability of D. macropodum, an important tree species within subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in China, using 354 occurrence records and a suite of environmental variables. A parameter-optimized MaxEnt model (calibrated with ENMeval; RM = 4, FC = QHPT) was applied to simulate the species’ present distribution and projected changes under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). The main factors influencing distribution were determined to be moisture and temperature seasonality, with the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19, 36.3%), the mean diurnal range (Bio2, 37.5%), and the precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18, 14.2%) jointly contributing 88.0% of the total influence. The model projections indicated a 40.1% reduction in the total number of suitable habitats under high-emission scenarios (SSP585) by the 2090s, including a loss of over 80% of highly suitable areas. Centroid movements also diverged across the scenarios: a southwestern shift under SSP126 and SSP245 contrasted with a southeastern shift under SSP585, with each accompanied by significant habitat fragmentation. Key climate refugia were identified primarily in central Taiwan Province and the mountainous zones of Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces, which should be prioritized for conservation activities. These insights offer a foundational understanding for the conservation of D. macropodum and other ecologically similar subtropical evergreen species. However, direct extrapolation to other taxa should be made cautiously, as specific responses may vary based on differing ecological tolerances and dispersal capacities. Further research is needed to test the generalizability of these patterns across diverse plant functional types. Full article

Species distribution models were built for three short-palped crane fly species of the genus Dicranomyia: Dicranomyia affinis, Dicranomyia chorea, and Dicranomyia mitis. The main objective of this study was to assess potential habitat suitability in undersampled regions and explore differences in environmental space. Dicranomyia affinis was historically considered a variety of Dicranomyia mitis due to their morphological similarity. In contrast, Dicranomyia chorea is a widespread species. The biology and ecology of these species remain poorly understood. Models were developed using Maxent, a widely used tool. Our results indicate that Dicranomyia affinis and Dicranomyia chorea share highly similar predicted habitat suitability, with high suitability across the Mediterranean, Central, and Northern Europe, moderate suitability in Eastern Europe, and low suitability in Central Asia. In contrast, Dicranomyia mitis is predicted to have greater habitat suitability in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, with lower suitability in Mediterranean regions. Analysis of variable importance revealed possible ecological differences between the species. While climatic factors primarily influenced the models for Dicranomyia affinis and Dicranomyia chorea, Dicranomyia mitis was more strongly influenced by the variable pH. These findings may provide insights into potential distributions in undersampled areas and improve our understanding of the species’ ecology. Full article

Climate change is increasingly altering ecosystems around the world and threatening biodiversity, especially species with narrow distribution ranges and a dependency on dedicated conservation practices. In Saskatchewan, Canada, the ecological significance of the genus sedge (Carex L.) from the Cyperaceae family is well recognized, yet spatially explicit forecasts of its habitats under future climate scenarios remain absent, creating a major obstacle to forward-looking conservation strategies. This study assesses the current and future habitat suitability of six sedges, including three nationally at-risk species (C. assiniboinensis, C. saximontana, C. tetanica) and three provincially rare species (C. glacialis, C. granularis, C. supina subsp. spaniocarpa). We applied the MaxEnt algorithm to model the distributions of those Carex species of conservation concern using 20 environmental predictors (19 bioclimatic variables and elevation) under baseline climate (1970–2000) and projected future scenarios for the 2030s and 2050s using SSP245 and SSP585 emission pathways. We optimized and validated models with the ENMeval package to enhance predictive reliability. Model accuracy was high (AUC = 0.88–0.99) and the results revealed a diversity of species responses: C. assiniboinensis and C. tetanica are projected to expand their suitable habitat, while C. saximontana is expected to lose high suitability areas. The distributions of C. glacialis and C. supina subsp. spaniocarpa remain restricted and relatively stable across scenarios. C. granularis is projected to have dynamic range shifts, particularly under the high-emission SSP585 scenario. Temperature-related variables were consistently the most influential predictors. These results provide critical insights into the potential impacts of climate change on Carex species of conservation concern in Canada and offer valuable guidance for prioritizing adaptive conservation planning and proactive habitat management. The diversity of species responses emphasizes the necessity of tailored conservation approaches rather than a one-size-fits-all strategy. Full article

Urban Waterlogging Susceptibility Assessment (UWSA) is vital for resilient urban planning and disaster preparedness. Conventional methods depend heavily on Historical Waterlogging Records (HWR), which are limited by their reliance on extreme rainfall events and prone to human omissions, resulting in spatial bias and incomplete coverage. While hydrodynamic models can simulate waterlogging scenarios, their large-scale application is restricted by the lack of accessible underground drainage data. Recently released flood control plans and risk maps provide valuable physics-informed priors (PI-Priors) that can supplement HWR for susceptibility modeling. This study introduces a dual-source integration framework that fuses HWR with PI-Priors to improve UWSA performance. PI-Priors rasters were vectorized to delineate two-dimensional waterlogging zones, and based on the Three-Way Decision (TWD) theory, a Multi-dimensional Connection Cloud Model (MCCM) with CRITIC-TOPSIS was employed to build an index system incorporating membership degree, credibility, and impact scores. High-quality samples were extracted and combined with HWR to create an enhanced dataset. A Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was then applied with 20 variables spanning natural conditions, social capital, infrastructure, and built environment. The results demonstrate that this framework increases sample adequacy, reduces spatial bias, and substantially improves the accuracy and generalizability of UWSA under extreme rainfall. Full article

Human activities have accelerated the extinction of species, driving biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation. Establishing protected areas (PAs) that encompass habitats of endangered species is essential for achieving biodiversity conservation and ecosystem protection goals. This study aimed to identify and prioritize critical conservation areas for the endangered long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) in five regions of Gangwon and Gyeongbuk Provinces, South Korea. The MaxEnt model was applied to predict the potential habitat of the species, considering key environmental factors such as topographic, distance-related, vegetation, and land cover variables. The InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment (HRA) model was used to quantitatively assess cumulative risks within the habitat from the impacts of forest development and anthropogenic pressures. Subsequently, the Zonation software was employed for spatial prioritization by integrating the outputs of the models, and core conservation areas (CCAs) with high ecological value were identified through overlap analysis with 1st-grade areas from the Ecological and Nature Map (ENM). Results indicated that suitable habitats for the long-tailed goral were mainly located in forested regions, and areas subjected to multiple stressors faced elevated habitat risk. High-priority areas (HPAs) were primarily forested zones with high habitat suitability. The overlap analysis emphasized the need to implement conservation measures targeting CCAs while also managing additional HPAs outside CCAs, which are not designated as ENM. This study provides a methodological framework and baseline data to support systematic conservation planning for the long-tailed goral, offering practical guidance for future research and policy development. Full article