Search Results (184)

In this paper, a data-driven system identification method is presented based on the data fusion of a dynamic model and flight test data. The dynamic model is built by a combination of nonlinear auto-regressive networks (NARX) and the steady-state model. In such a combination, NARX can calibrate the dynamic characteristics of high-pressure and low-pressure rotor speed based on automatic control system steady-state models. As such, the calibrated engine model’s output speed is able to meet the requirements of simulation test tolerance accuracy. To enhance the robustness of the dynamic model against measurement noise, the Kalman filter is used to fuse the model prediction and the measurement data with noise. As such, the fused model can efficiently remove the influence of measurement noise and improve prediction accuracy. The proposed method supports the construction of reliable and environment-adaptive platforms for simulation application verification and provides high-fidelity simulation incentives for the realization of simulation test scenarios in the aviation industry. Full article

In self-consumption (SC) configurations, energy management systems (EMSs) are increasingly being implemented to maximise the self-consumption ratio (SCR). Recent studies have demonstrated that prediction-based EMSs significantly enhance decision-making capabilities compared to non-predictive EMSs. This paper presents the design, implementation, and testing on a real system of two machine learning (ML)-type predictive models capable of forecasting the electricity consumption of an individual building using a small dataset. A nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) neural network model and a support vector regression (SVR) model were designed and compared. These models predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption using forecasted meteorological data from Meteo Galicia (MG) and building occupancy data, both automatically obtained and pre-processed. In order to compensate for the lack of recurrence of the SVR model, the effect of introducing an additional input, a time vector, was analysed. It is proved that both ML models trained with a small dataset are able to predict the next day’s average hourly power with a mean MAPE below 13.96% and a determination coefficient (R²) greater than 0.78. The model that most accurately predicts the hourly average power of a week is the SVR, which achieves a mean MAPE and R² of 10.73% and 0.85, respectively. Full article

Accurately forecasting CO₂ emissions in the transportation sector is essential for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study uses an annually spanning dataset from 1993 to 2022 to evaluate the predictive performance of three methods: NAR, NARX, and GA-T2FIS. Among these, NARX-VK, which incorporates vehicle kilometers (VK) and economic variables, demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy, achieving a MAPE of 2.2%, MAE of 1621.449 × 10³ tons, and RMSE of 1853.799 × 10³ tons. This performance surpasses that of NARX-RG, which relies on registered vehicle data and achieved a MAPE of 3.7%. While GA-T2FIS exhibited slightly lower accuracy than NARX-VK, it demonstrated robust performance in handling uncertainties and nonlinear relationships, achieving a MAPE of 2.6%. Sensitivity analysis indicated that changes in VK significantly influence CO₂ emissions. The Green Transition Scenario, assuming a 10% reduction in VK, led to a 4.4% decrease in peak CO₂ emissions and a 4.1% reduction in total emissions. Conversely, the High Growth Scenario, modeling a 10% increase in VK, resulted in a 7.2% rise in peak emissions and a 4.1% increase in total emissions. Full article

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the effect of earthquake (EQ) preparation on changes in meteorological parameters. The two physical quantities of temperature (T)/relative humidity (Hum) and atmospheric chemical potential (ACP) have been investigated with the use of the Japanese meteorological “open” data of AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System), which is a very dense “ground-based” network of meteorological stations with higher temporal and spatial resolutions than the satellite remote sensing open data. In order to obtain a clearer identification of any seismogenic effect, we have used the AMeDAS station data at local midnight (LT = 01 h) and our initial target EQ was chosen to be the famous 1995 Kobe EQ of 17 January 1995 (M = 7.3). Initially, we performed conventional statistical analysis with confidence bounds and it was found that the Kobe station (very close to the EQ epicenter) exhibited conspicuous anomalies in both physical parameters on 10 January 1995, just one week before the EQ, exceeding m (mean) + 3σ (standard deviation) in T/Hum and well above m + 2σ in ACP within the short-term window of one month before and two weeks after an EQ. When looking at the whole period of over one year including the day of the EQ, in the case of T/Hum only we detected three additional extreme anomalies, except in winter, but with unknown origins. On the other hand, the anomalous peak on 10 January 1995 was the largest for ACP. Further, the spatial distributions of the anomaly intensity of the two quantities have been presented using about 40 stations to provide a further support to the close relationship of this peak with the EQ. The above statistical analysis has been compared with an analysis with recent machine/deep learning methods. We have utilized a combinational use of NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive model with eXogenous inputs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, which was successful in objectively re-confirming the anomalies in both parameters on the same day prior to the EQ. The combination of these analysis results elucidates that the meteorological anomalies on 10 January 1995 are considered to be a notable precursor to the EQ. Finally, we suggest a joint examination of our two meteorological quantities for their potential use in real short-term EQ prediction, as well as in the future lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) studies as the information from the bottom part of LAIC. Full article

Motion control of modern and advanced aircraft has to be provided under conditions of incomplete and inaccurate knowledge of their parameters and characteristics, possible flight modes, and environmental influences. In addition, various abnormal situations may occur during flight, in particular, equipment failures and structural damage. These circumstances cause the problem of a rapid adjustment of the used control laws so that the control system can adapt to the mentioned changes. However, most adaptive control schemes have a model of the control object, which plays a crucial role in adjusting the control law. That is, it is required to solve also the identification problem for dynamical systems. We propose an approach to solving the above-mentioned problems based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) and hybrid technologies. In the class of traditional neural network technologies, we use recurrent neural networks of the NARX type, which allow us to obtain black-box models for controlled dynamical systems. It is shown that in a number of cases, in particular, for control objects with complicated dynamic properties, this approach turns out to be inefficient. One of the possible alternatives to this approach, investigated in the paper, consists of the transition to hybrid neural network models of the gray box type. These are semi-empirical models that combine in the resulting network structure both empirical data on the behavior of an object and theoretical knowledge about its nature. They allow solving with high accuracy the problems inaccessible by the level of complexity for ANN models of the black-box type. However, the process of forming such models requires a very large consumption of computational resources. For this reason, the paper considers another variant of the hybrid ANN model. In it, the hybrid model consists not of the combination of empirical and theoretical elements, resulting in a recurrent network of a special kind, but of the combination of elements of feedforward networks and recurrent networks. Such a variant opens up the possibility of involving deep learning technology in the construction of motion models for controlled systems. As a result of this study, data were obtained that allow us to evaluate the effectiveness of two variants of hybrid neural networks, which can be used to solve problems of modeling, identification, and control of aircraft. The capabilities and limitations of these variants are demonstrated on several examples. Namely, on the example of the problem of aircraft longitudinal angular motion, the possibilities of modeling the motion using the NARX network as applied to a supersonic transport aircraft (SST) are first considered. It is shown that under complicated operating conditions this network does not always provide acceptable modeling accuracy. Further, the same problem, but applied to a maneuverable aircraft, as a more complex object of modeling and identification, is solved using both a NARX network (black box) and a semi-empirical model (gray box). The significant advantage of the gray box model over the black box one is shown. The capabilities of the hybrid model realizing deep learning technologies are demonstrated by forming a model of the control object (SST) and neurocontroller on the example of the MRAC adaptive control scheme. The efficiency of the obtained solution is illustrated by comparing the response of the control object with a failure situation (a decrease in the efficiency of longitudinal control by 50%) with and without adaptation. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the cyclic shear behavior of sand–fly ash mixtures through experimental and data-driven modeling approaches. Cyclic direct shear tests were conducted on mixtures containing fly ash at 0%, 2.5%, 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% by weight to examine the influence of fly ash content on the shear behavior under cyclic loading conditions. The tests were carried out under a constant stress of 100 kPa to simulate field-relevant stress conditions. Results revealed that the fly ash content initially reduces shear strength at lower additive contents, but shear strength increases and reaches a maximum at 20% fly ash content. The findings highlight the trade-offs in mechanical behavior associated with varying fly ash proportions. To enhance the understanding of cyclic shear behavior, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Model with External Input (NARX) model was employed. Using data from the loading cycles as input, the NARX model was trained to predict the final shear response under cyclic conditions. The model demonstrated exceptional predictive performance, achieving a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.99, showcasing its robustness in forecasting the cyclic shear performance based on the composition of the mixtures. The insights derived from this research underscore the potential of incorporating fly ash in sand mixtures for soil stabilization in geotechnical engineering. Furthermore, the integration of advanced machine learning techniques such as NARX models offers a powerful tool for predicting the behavior of soil mixtures, facilitating more effective and data-driven decision-making in geotechnical applications. Evidently, this study not only advances the understanding of cyclic shear behavior in fly ash–sand mixtures but also provides a framework for employing data-driven methodologies to address complex geotechnical challenges. Full article

As robots become increasingly integrated into human society, the importance of human–machine interfaces continues to grow. This study proposes a faster and more accurate control system for myoelectric prostheses by considering the Electromechanical Delay (EMD), a key characteristic of Electromyography (EMG) signals. Previous studies have focused on systems designed for wrist movements without attempting implementation. To overcome this, we expanded the system’s capability to handle more complex movements, such as those of fingers, by replacing the existing four-channel wired EMG sensor with an eight-channel wireless EMG sensor. This replacement improved the number of channels and user convenience. Additionally, we analyzed the communication delay introduced by this change and validated the feasibility of utilizing EMD. Furthermore, to address the limitations of the SISO-NARX model, we proposed a MISO-NARX model. To resolve issues related to model complexity and reduced accuracy due to the increased number of EMG channels, we introduced ridge regression, improving the system identification accuracy. Finally, we applied the ZPETC+PID controller to an actual servo motor and verified its performance. The results showed that the system reached the target value approximately 0.240 s faster than the response time of 0.428 s without the controller. This study significantly enhances the responsiveness and accuracy of myoelectric prostheses and is expected to contribute to the development of practical devices in the future. Full article

Forecasting the price of cryptocurrencies is a notoriously hard and significant problem, due to the rapid market growth and high volatility. In this article, we propose a methodology for predicting future values of cryptocurrency exchange rates by developing a Non-linear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) prediction model that uses the most adequate external information. The exogenous variables considered are historical values of the exchange rate and a series of technical indicators. The selection of the most relevant external inputs is based on the computation of the mutual information indicator and estimated using the k-nearest neighbor method. The methodology employs a fine-tuned Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network as the regressor. We have used quantitative and trend accuracy measures to compare the proposed method against other state-of-the-art LSTM-based models. In addition, regarding the input selection process, the proposed approach was compared against the most commonly used one, which is based on the cross-correlation coefficient. A long series of experiments and statistical analyses proved that the proposed methodology is highly accurate and the resulting model outperforms the state-of-the-art LSTM-based models. Full article

This study aimed to predict and fit the nonlinear dynamic grip force of the human upper limb using surface electromyographic (sEMG) signals. The research employed a time-series-based neural network, NARX, to establish a mapping relationship between the electromyographic signals of the forearm muscle groups and dynamic grip force. Three-channel electromyographic signal acquisition equipment and a grip force sensor were used to record muscle signals and grip force data of the subjects under specific dynamic force conditions. After preprocessing the data, including outlier removal, wavelet denoising, and baseline drift correction, the NARX model was used for fitting analysis. The model compares two different training strategies: regularized stochastic gradient descent (BRSGD) and conjugate gradient (CG). The results show that the CG greatly shortened the training time, and performance did not decline. NARX demonstrated good accuracy and stability in dynamic grip force prediction, with the model with 10 layers and 20 time delays performing the best. The results demonstrate that the proposed method has potential practical significance for force control applications in smart prosthetics and virtual reality. Full article

The power generation by solar photovoltaic (PV) systems will become an important and reliable source in the future. Therefore, this aspect has received great attention from researchers, who have investigated accurate and credible models to predict the power output of PV modules. This prediction is very important in the planning of short-term resources, the management of energy distribution, and the operation security for PV systems. This paper aims to explore the sensitivity of Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Inputs (NARX) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANNs) as a result of weather dynamics in the very short term for predicting the power output of PV modules. This goal was achieved based on an experimental dataset for the power output of a PV module obtained during the sunny days in summer and cloudy days in winter, and using the data in the algorithm models of NARX and ANN. In addition, the analysis results of the NARX model were compared with those of the static ANN model to measure the accuracy and superiority of the nonlinear model. The results showed that the NARX model offers very good estimates and is efficient in predicting the power output of the PV module in the very short term. Thus, the coefficient of determination (R²) and mean square error (MSE) were 94.4–97.9% and 0.08261–0.04613, respectively, during the summer days, and the R² and MSE were 90.1–89.2% and 0.281–0.249, respectively, during the winter days. Overall, it can be concluded that the sensitivity of the NARX model is more accurate in the summer days than the winter days, when the weather conditions are more stable with a gradual change. Moreover, the effectiveness of the NARX model has the specificity to learn and to generalize more effectively than the static ANN. Full article

This study presents an innovative approach to predicting the water level in the San Juan River, Chocó, Colombia, by implementing two hybrid models: nonlinear auto-regressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) and long short-term memory (LSTM). These models combine artificial neural networks with smoothing techniques, including the exponential, Savitzky–Golay, and Rauch–Tung–Striebel (RTS) smoothing filters, with the aim of improving the accuracy of hydrological predictions. Given the high rainfall in the region, the San Juan River experiences significant fluctuations in its water levels, which presents a challenge for accurate prediction. The models were trained using historical data, and various smoothing techniques were applied to optimize data quality and reduce noise. The effectiveness of the models was evaluated using standard regression metrics, such as Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), mean square error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE), in addition to Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE). The results show that the combination of neural networks with smoothing filters, especially the RTS filter and smoothed Kalman filter, provided the most accurate predictions, outperforming traditional methods. This research has important implications for water resource management and flood prevention in vulnerable areas such as Chocó. The implementation of these hybrid models will allow local authorities to anticipate changes in water levels and plan preventive measures more effectively, thus reducing the risk of damage from extreme events. In summary, this study establishes a solid foundation for future research in water level prediction, highlighting the importance of integrating advanced technologies in water resources management. Full article

Accurate prediction of subgrade temperatures in seasonally frozen regions is crucial for understanding thermal states, frost heave phenomena, stability, and other critical characteristics. This study employs a nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) network to predict short-term subgrade temperatures in the Golmud-Nagqu section of China’s National Highway 109. The methodology involves preprocessing subgrade monitoring data, including temperature, water content, and frost heave, followed by developing a temperature prediction model. This tailored NARX neural network, compared to the traditional BP neural network, integrates feedback and delay mechanisms for monitoring data, offering superior memory and dynamic response capabilities. The precision of the NARX model is assessed with the backpropagation (BP) network, indicating that the NARX neural network significantly outperforms the BP model in both precision and stability for temperature prediction in seasonally frozen subgrades. These findings suggest that the NARX model is a valuable tool for accurately predicting subgrade temperatures in seasonally frozen regions, offering significant insights for practical engineering applications. Full article

Road roughness significantly impacts vehicle safety and dynamic responses. For nonlinear suspension systems, the nonlinear characteristics often make it challenging for estimators to identify the actual road roughness accurately. This paper proposes a hybrid road roughness identification algorithm based on nonlinear auto-regressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) and a process noise adaptive square root cubature Kalman filter (PASCKF) to address this issue. Driven by vehicle acceleration data, an NARX-based road roughness identification system is constructed to mitigate the model uncertainties. Furthermore, a hybrid strategy is proposed. On the one hand, the accurate road roughness estimated by the NARX is converted into process noise covariance, enhancing the estimator’s accuracy and convergence rate. Another switching strategy is proposed to optimize the non-convergence issues of the PASCKF. Finally, simulation and actual vehicle experiment data demonstrate that this approach offers superior identification accuracy and adaptability compared to the standalone SCKF algorithm. Full article

Accurate forecasting of the available energy portion that corresponds to the reservoir inflow of the month(s) ahead provides important decision support for hydropower plants in energy production planning for revenue maximization, as well as for environmental impact prevention and flood control upstream and downstream of a basin. Therefore, a reliable forecasting tool or model is deemed necessary and crucial. Considering the fluctuation and nonlinearity of data which significantly influence the forecasting results, this study develops an effective hybrid model by integrating an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) called “PSO-ANN” model based on the hydrological and meteorological data pre-processed by cross-correlation function (CCF), autocorrelation function (AFC), and normalization techniques for predicting the available energy portion corresponding to the reservoir inflow mentioned above for a case study hydropower plant in Laos, namely, the Theun-Hinboun hydropower plant (THHP). The model was evaluated by using correlation coefficient (r), relative error (RE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Taylor diagram plots in comparison with popular single-algorithm approaches such as ANN, and NARX models. The results demonstrated the superiority of the proposed PSO-ANN approach over the other two models, in addition to being comparable to those proposed by previous studies. Full article

This article discusses the development of an enhanced monitoring and control system for helicopter turboshaft engines during flight operations, leveraging advanced neural network techniques. The research involves a comprehensive mathematical model that effectively simulates various failure scenarios, including single and cascading failure, such as disconnections of gas-generator rotor sensors. The model employs differential equations to incorporate time-varying coefficients and account for external disturbances, ensuring accurate representation of engine behavior under different operational conditions. This study validates the NARX neural network architecture with a backpropagation training algorithm, achieving 99.3% accuracy in fault detection. A comparative analysis of the genetic algorithms indicates that the proposed algorithm outperforms others by 4.19% in accuracy and exhibits superior performance metrics, including a lower loss. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations in Matlab Simulink confirm the effectiveness of the model, showing average errors of 1.04% and 2.58% at 15 °C and 24 °C, respectively, with high precision (0.987), recall (1.0), F1-score (0.993), and an AUC of 0.874. However, the model’s accuracy is sensitive to environmental conditions, and further optimization is needed to improve computational efficiency and generalizability. Future research should focus on enhancing model adaptability and validating performance in real-world scenarios. Full article