Search Results (166)

This paper investigates the interaction between fiscal policy and non-performing loans (NPLs), a nexus often overlooked in banking stability literature. By proposing a generalized theoretical framework that augments the industrial organization (IO) theory of banking with liquidity preference theory, this study explains why a fiscal contraction (an improvement in the primary balance from deficit toward surplus) can decrease NPLs in a bank’s portfolio. Using bank-level quarterly data from Guyana (2009: Q4 to 2024: Q4) and a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Pooled Mean Group (ARDL-PMG) model, we find that a fiscal contraction reduces NPLs in the long run. Specifically, a one-percentage-point improvement in the seasonally adjusted primary balance (as a % of GDP) is associated with a 0.473 percentage point decrease in NPLs in the long run. This finding contrasts with the existing literature, which often suggests that fiscal consolidations increase credit risk. In the short run, however, the results indicate a divergent effect where fiscal contractions lead to a temporary increase in NPLs, with a coefficient of 0.103, likely because of immediate pressure on borrower debt-service capacity. This study contributes to the literature by extending the IO theory of banking to the fiscal policy–NPL relationship in a developing, resource-rich economy. Notably, while higher oil prices and bank efficiency significantly lower NPLs, traditional macroeconomic drivers such as GDP growth, inflation, and the real effective exchange rate—as well as the COVID-19 pandemic—are found to be statistically insignificant in this framework. Full article

This study examines the relationship between banks’ ESG performance and core risk and balance sheet indicators in the Turkish banking sector. Using an unbalanced panel of eight banks listed on Borsa Istanbul over the period 2008–2023, we estimate bank fixed-effects models with one-year-lagged ESG measures and controls and report Driscoll–Kraay standard errors. Two complementary specifications are employed: one based on the composite ESG score and another based on its environmental (E), social (S), and governance (G) pillars. The findings suggest that the composite ESG score is positively associated with non-performing loans and capital adequacy, while its relationship with liquidity risk and net balance sheet position/equity is less stable across specifications. When the ESG pillars are examined separately, substantial heterogeneity emerges across the E, S, and G dimensions. In particular, the environmental score is negatively associated with capital adequacy, whereas the social score is negatively associated with net balance sheet position/equity. Governance-related results appear weaker and more sensitive to specification choice. Overall, the findings indicate that ESG does not operate through a uniform risk channel in banking and should be interpreted as associational rather than causal. The study contributes evidence from an emerging-market banking system and highlights the importance of disaggregated ESG analysis. Full article

Historical masonry minarets are highly vulnerable to seismic actions due to their slender geometry, limited tensile capacity, and material heterogeneity. However, their response to near-fault ground motions characterized by velocity pulses remains insufficiently explored. This study investigates the seismic response of the historical Tavanlı Mosque Minaret (1894, Trabzon, Türkiye) subjected to pulse-like (PL) and non-pulse-like (NPL) near-fault ground motions. A three-dimensional finite element model (FEM) was developed in ANSYS Workbench and systematically calibrated using empirical formulations to represent the current dynamic condition of the structure. Seismic performance was evaluated through linear dynamic analyses in terms of displacement demands, principal stress distribution, and drift-ratio-based performance levels. The results indicate that model calibration significantly modifies the dynamic characteristics, increasing the fundamental frequency from 0.734 Hz to 1.126 Hz and reducing displacement demands by approximately 35–76% across the considered records. Despite this improvement, PL ground motions consistently generate more critical deformation demands than NPL motions, frequently exceeding Collapse Prevention (CP) limits even when Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values are relatively low. A key finding is that seismic demand cannot be reliably predicted by peak intensity measures or pulse-period ratios ($T_p/T_1$) alone; rather, velocity-related parameters and pulse coherence govern the structural response. These results demonstrate that integrating empirical model calibration with pulse-sensitive seismic analysis is essential for reliable seismic assessment and conservation planning of slender historical masonry structures located in near-fault regions. The study offers a systematic framework that integrates model calibration and pulse-sensitive seismic analysis for evaluating the drift-controlled response of slender historical masonry minarets in near-fault regions. Full article

Agricultural credit rationing remains a persistent systemic friction driven by information opacity and limited collateral. This study develops a credit risk early-warning system by fusing multi-source institutional digital footprints (tax compliance signals, judicial enforcement records, and credit history indicators) for 1021 agricultural enterprises in China. Methodologically, we propose a Default Event Isolation protocol to enforce strict ex ante validity by discarding observations at and after the event month, and implement a two-step feature optimization pipeline that reduces 138 predictors to a parsimonious set of 50 features. Empirically, the optimized LightGBM (version 4.6.0) model achieves an AUC = 0.9345 (95% bootstrap CI: 0.8745–0.9563) and PR-AUC = 0.4421, representing a 47× lift over the random baseline under extreme class imbalance (0.94% event rate), and captures 87.4% of early-warning events by monitoring only the top 10% highest-risk firms. The interpretability analysis consistently highlights judicial boundary constraints and tax stability signals as dominant predictors, forming a “judicial baseline + tax stability” dual-core structure. A strict credit-only robustness check using bank-recorded NPL labels maintains strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.9089, 95% bootstrap CI: 0.8255–0.9591), mitigating concerns that the model’s signal is driven by label overlap. These findings suggest that integrating institutional records into automated screening pipelines can enable the earlier and more targeted identification of distressed borrowers in rural lending, even when traditional financial statements are unavailable. Full article

Background/Objectives: Cesarean deliveries (CD) have been associated with an increased risk for offspring long-term respiratory morbidity. We sought to evaluate whether children born via CD in different stages of labor, and partially exposed to vaginal flora, would differ in their long-term respiratory morbidity. Methods: A population-based study comparing long-term respiratory morbidity of children according to their mode of delivery and CD indication was conducted. Children born via CD for first stage non-progressive labor (CD-NPL1) and children born via CD for non-progressive labor in the second stage (CD-NPL2) were compared with children born vaginally (VD) as a reference group. Offspring hospitalizations up to 18 years involving respiratory morbidities were evaluated. Results: 313,782 deliveries were included; 97.7% were VD, 1.6% were CD for NPL1 and 0.7% were CD for NPL2. The overall respiratory-related hospitalization rates as well as the cumulative incidence of respiratory hospitalizations were significantly higher in children born via CD, with a graded association, related to fetal exposure to vaginal flora, noted between VD, CD-NPL2 and CD-NPL1 with the highest incidence. In a Cox model, controlling for multiple confounding variables, NPL1 (vs. VD) was associated with an increased risk for offspring long-term respiratory morbidity (aHR 1.15), while NPL2 did not differ in risk. Conclusions: The risk for respiratory morbidity is increased for NPL1 offspring (with lower exposure to vaginal flora) as compared with NPL2 and VD offspring, with a graded association noted between exposure to vaginal flora during labor and the risk for offspring long-term respiratory morbidity. Full article

In an increasingly volatile global financial environment, strong institutions and sound governance are essential for safeguarding banking stability and mitigating systemic risks in emerging economies. Across the 11 emerging economies examined, weaknesses in institutional quality and inconsistencies in governance frameworks continue to elevate credit risk and undermine financial resilience. This study investigates the effects of institutional quality (IQ) and corporate governance (CGG) on bank stability, drawing on the Financial Stability and Risk Management (FSRM) theory, which highlights robust institutions, effective risk oversight, and sound governance as core determinants of financial system strength. Using dynamic panel data from 2011–2024, the study applies the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach to assess bank performance through non-performing loans (NPLs) and Z-Score as key dependent variables. The model incorporates IQ, CGG, bank-specific characteristics (bank assets, capital adequacy, cost-to-income ratio), and macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation, exchange rate, real interest rate) as explanatory factors, addressing endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and persistence in banking outcomes. The results reveal strong persistence in NPLs (lag = 0.965, p < 0.01) and Z-Score (lag = 0.920, p < 0.01), indicating notable path dependence in bank performance. Institutional quality significantly enhances bank stability (Z-Score coefficient = 0.073, p = 0.040), while BA shows a negative but insignificant effect (coefficient = 0.005, p = 0.432), implying that rapid asset growth without prudent risk management may weaken resilience. CGG shows negative but insignificant effects, while macroeconomic factors also appear insignificant, indicating limited short-term impact. Countries with stronger institutions, such as South Korea, display lower NPLs and higher stability, whereas weaker institutional environments like Iran, Pakistan, and Bangladesh face higher credit risk and reduced stability. Overall, the study highlights IQ and prudent balance sheet management as key to stronger bank stability, urging policymakers to reinforce institutional frameworks, tighten regulatory discipline, and ensure controlled asset growth to reduce systemic vulnerabilities. Full article

Asia presently houses some of the top and dynamic economies in the world. These economies have also experienced high fintech adoption in their banking sectors. This paper examines the impact of fintech adoption and integration on the efficiency and stability of banks in 9 Asian countries, using panel data from 85 banks spanning 11 years from 2014 to 2024. It first analyzes the impact of fintech on banks across all selected countries and then, on a stratified basis, divides them into three categories: developed economies, large economies, and emerging countries. The paper uses non-performing loan (NPL) and provision for loan losses (PLLs) as proxies for risk, efficiency ratios, and the cost-to-income ratio as efficiency measures, and the stability ratio and Z-score as indicators of stability. To estimate the results, it has applied ordinary least squares and fixed-effect techniques. The study finds that fintech adoption reduces associated bank risk, presents mixed effects on efficiency, and strongly supports bank stability. Moreover, total assets and ROA consistently demonstrate lower risk, higher efficiency, and greater stability. Overall, the results of this study indicate that fintech encourages greater competition, leading banks to lend more aggressively and, consequently, increasing NPLs, PLLs, and overall risk exposure. Based on the findings, this research suggests that policymakers may adopt fintech strategies to maximize the benefits. Full article

This paper investigates credit risk management as a dynamic system. Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) is employed to model interrelationships among four key components: Non-Performing Loans (NPLs), Loan Loss Provision (LLP), loan charge-off (LCO) and capital. The Cost-to-Income ratio (CIR) and Size and Net Profit-to-Equity ratio (ROE) are used as control variables. The panel dataset comprises 1461 conventional rural banks in Indonesia with a quarterly frequency from June 2010 to March 2024. There are several key findings of this study. First, credit risk management practices in rural banks predominantly follow an incurred loss approach, although the expected loss model appears to be more commonly adopted by larger institutions. Second, capital serves a critical function as a buffer against credit losses. Third, subsample investigation reveals a significant role of accounting discretionary. This study offers significant implications for both policy development and academic research in microfinance. Full article

This study investigates how natural language processing (NLP) can support the assessment and learning of science vocabulary among multilingual and multicultural learners, drawing on data from two federally funded studies in the United States. Students define and use target vocabulary in a sentence, with responses transcribed and scored using NLP tools. Employing a mixed-methods design and guided by established socioecological theoretical frameworks, we examine how students’ sociocultural contexts and background knowledge influence their understanding of science word knowledge and applicability. Our findings highlight both the potential and challenges of using AI tools in equitable and culturally responsive ways, offering insights to improve NPL-based assessment tools that support literacy teaching and learning in diverse student populations. Full article

Stack effects in high-rise buildings cause noise, drafts, and elevator door malfunctions during cold weather yet remain difficult to control. Because vertical shafts couple pressures between floors, local fixes at a single lobby can unintentionally disturb the pressure field elsewhere. To analyze these interactions, we developed a measurement-calibrated CONTAM multizone model of a 43-story office building and evaluated representative local countermeasures. Under base winter conditions, the pressure difference across the problematic first-floor high-rise elevator doors is 56 Pa, driving approximately 1300 CMH of airflow through the door line. First-floor depressurization reduces this to 34 Pa (about 30% lower airflow) but simultaneously increases the pressure at the main entrance doors from 19 to 39 Pa. Additional first-floor partitions slightly reduce pressures on upper high-rise floors, whereas opening exterior windows in the high-rise zone increases shaft airflow by 7.7% and further amplifies elevator door pressures. We show that neutral pressure level (NPL) shifts into vertical shafts are a key mechanism limiting the effectiveness of purely local interventions. These results demonstrate that effective countermeasures must be designed at the whole-building scale, jointly controlling pressure redistribution and neutral-pressure-level movement while directing unavoidable pressure transfer toward the exterior envelope and away from sensitive interior spaces. Full article

In a situation where the number of non-performing loans (NPLs) increases, lenders may raise interest rates to compensate for potential losses, and the amount of credit granted in the market may decrease, leading to credit rationing. Such actions may become vital based on their potential consequences for the economy, entrepreneurs and consumers, which makes this topic extremely important. This study, by using an empirical VAR analysis, has strived to determine whether credit rationing by banks operating in the Polish banking sector is driven by risky loans (which are the main determinant of credit rationing and are represented by the ratio of NPLs to total loans). According to the results, it has been found that credit rationing, made by Polish banks, is not statistically significant when the risk in the credit market rises due to non-performing loans. Therefore, it can be claimed that the risky structure due to NPL in the credit market may not be one of the determinant factors of credit rationing in the Polish banking sector. The low sensitivity of the Polish banking sector to the risky structure of the credit market may result from the relatively low share of loans in total assets compared to debt instruments. Furthermore, restrictive lending policies and the predominance of mortgage loans secured directly by real estate limit portfolio risk, which may reduce the need for a risk-sensitive lending strategy. Full article

Against the backdrop of the global manufacturing green transition, this study investigates the pathway through which green supply chain integration (GSCI) influences corporate green innovation performance. Grounded in the triple bottom line (TBL) theory, the empirical analysis is conducted using sample data from 364 manufacturing enterprises across 10 countries. It is important to note that a significant portion (56%) of the responses originated from China, providing a valuable but contextually specific perspective that should be considered when interpreting the results. Grounded in the TBL theory, our empirical analysis covers three key industries: electronics, machinery, and transportation components. The research examines two key relationships: first, the mediating role of new product launch speed (NPLS) in the links between GSCI (including green supplier integration, green customer integration, and green internal integration) and corporate environmental, financial, and social performance; second, the moderating effect of enterprise intelligence level (EIL) on the GSCI-NPLS relationship. This research validates the performance enhancement pathway of a market-responsive green product development model, whereby GSCI drives green innovation performance through accelerating NPLS, with EIL strengthening this acceleration effect, providing empirical support for manufacturing enterprises to optimize green supply chain management and improve green innovation efficiency. Full article

Recent advancements in nanotechnology have intensified research efforts to address security concerns like hardware trojans and intellectual property (IP) piracy, particularly by exploring novel alternatives to traditional MOSFET devices. Spin-based devices, known for their low power consumption, non-volatility, and seamless integration with silicon substrates, have emerged as promising candidates. This research proposes a novel approach to enhance the security of integrated circuits using spin-based devices known as magnetic tunnel junctions (MTJs). A Non-volatile Polymorphic Logic (NPL) is optimized and designed to perform multiple operations, effectively concealing its true functionality. The analytical studies conducted on the Cadence Virtuoso platform using TSMC 65 nm MOS technology demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed approach. The proposed NPL circuit enables polymorphism by allowing the circuit to perform all one- and two-input Boolean logic operations, including NOT, AND/NAND, OR/NOR, and XOR/XNOR, through adjustments of applied keys. This dynamic functionality makes it challenging for attackers to determine the circuit’s true operation. The proposed design exhibits similar timing characteristics for different logic operations, which further complicates the tampering attempts. Additionally, the circuit’s layout is designed to be symmetric, ensuring the execution of all possible operations by the same physical layout. This provides post-manufacturing security from reverse engineering and finds its applications in securing custom IC designs against the evolving landscape of hardware-based threats. Full article

The commonly used conversion coefficient for natural infiltration rates (N) is derived from single-zone or low-rise building assumptions and therefore fails to account for the substantial pressure differences driven by building height and seasonal temperature variations. These induced pressure differences significantly impact on the variations in infiltration rates within high-rise buildings, particularly during heating and cooling seasons. Therefore, this study develops a floor-resolved methodology for deriving N in high-rise buildings under various seasonal conditions, through extending the effective leakage area (ELA) model and incorporating normalization procedures that reflect seasonal and environmental conditions. Application of this method to high-rise buildings in South Korea shows that both infiltration rates and N values at upper and lower floors exceed those near the neutral pressure level (NPL) by more than a factor of two under winter conditions. Moreover, the derived N values deviate substantially from the commonly assumed reference value of 20 and vary systematically with floor height and season. These findings indicate that using a uniform N value can lead to considerable errors in estimating infiltration and associated energy loads, underscoring the necessity of height- and climate-specific conversion coefficients for accurate energy performance assessment. Full article

This study uses a dataset of conventional banks from 2010 to 2022 to investigate the moderating effect of board characteristics (BC) on the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and bank stability in the MENA region. Bank stability is measured using the Z-ROA index, which captures a bank’s ability to withstand financial shocks. The study addresses endogeneity and heterogeneity concerns using the system generalized method of moments (SGMM), with diagnostic tests confirming the validity of instruments and the absence of second-order autocorrelation. Three main conclusions are presented. First, CSR has a major detrimental impact on bank stability, indicating that when poorly managed or misaligned with strategic objectives, CSR initiatives may weaken financial resilience. Second, board attributes such as independence, diversity, and experience have a positive impact on bank stability, highlighting the importance of sound governance in ensuring prudent financial management. Third, the interaction between CSR and board characteristics exerts a positive and significant influence on bank stability, suggesting that well-structured boards can enhance the strategic value of CSR initiatives. As a robustness check, the study re-estimates the model using non-performing loans (NPLs) as an alternative measure of bank stability. The results remain consistent with the baseline findings, confirming the robustness and credibility of the conclusions. CSR continues to show a positive association with NPLs, while board characteristics and their interaction with CSR maintain negative and significant effects. These findings reinforce that effective board governance can transform CSR practices into stability-enhancing strategies. For policymakers and banking executives seeking to integrate sustainability into governance frameworks, the results underscore the crucial role of corporate governance in translating CSR efforts into tangible stability outcomes. The study calls for greater regulatory focus on board structures to maximize the stability benefits of CSR in the banking sector, contributing to the growing body of research on CSR and financial stability in developing economies. Full article