Search Results (2,444)

Linear heritage corridors are increasingly exposed to spatially heterogeneous pressures from climate change and human activities, yet integrated geospatial frameworks for corridor-scale risk identification remain limited. Taking the Beijing–Hangzhou Grand Canal as a representative linear World Heritage corridor, this study developed a GIS-based spatiotemporal assessment framework to quantify natural risk, anthropogenic pressure, and their coupled patterns during 1995–2024. Approximately 350 canal segments were constructed as comparable assessment units and linked with 49 heritage sites and 18 World Heritage canal sections through a multi-scale spatial framework integrating canal sections, buffer zones, and heritage sites. Natural risk was characterized using extreme temperature, precipitation, and drought indices, while anthropogenic pressure was represented by nighttime lights, population density, impervious surface, and road density. The results reveal a clear north–south gradient in integrated natural risk, with higher values concentrated in the southern canal sections. Among the three natural-risk modules, temperature, precipitation, and drought contributed weights of 0.594, 0.242, and 0.164, respectively, indicating the dominant role of heat-related processes. The first two principal components of anthropogenic pressure explained 80.8% of the total variance. Four dominant coupling types were identified, among which the dual high-pressure type was concentrated mainly in the southern canal and marked the most critical areas of compound risk. This study provides a geospatial approach for hotspot detection and spatial decision support for the conservation of large linear heritage systems. Full article

The progressive degradation of natural habitats, driven by anthropogenic pressures and climate change, constitutes one of the most serious threats to biodiversity. Peatland ecosystems, along with the valuable plant species associated with them, are particularly vulnerable to these processes. Salix lapponum, a glacial relict species, is undergoing a drastic decline in both its range and population size across Poland and Europe. This emphasizes the need for the implementation of conservation measures, including species translocation, as well as the development of effective methods for monitoring plant condition following introduction. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of selected physiological indicators for the rapid and reliable assessment of plant condition in active conservation efforts. The experimental material consisted of S. lapponum plantlets derived from tissue culture, which were introduced into five experimental sites in eastern Poland, differing in habitat conditions. Over two growing seasons, chlorophyll fluorescence parameters (F₀, F_m, F_v/F_m), the content of photosynthetic pigments and anthocyanins, relative water content, guaiacol peroxidase activity, and the presence of reactive oxygen species were analyzed. The results revealed clear seasonal variability in most of the studied physiological parameters, as well as their differentiation across habitat conditions. The highest sensitivity to environmental changes was observed for indicators related to photosynthetic performance (F_v/F_m), tissue hydration status (RWC), and enzymatic activity. Declines in photosystem II efficiency at the beginning of the growing season, reflected in F_v/F_m values decreasing to 0.47–0.49 indicate transient stress conditions in plants. Simultaneously, variation in relative water content (52–90%) and peroxidase activity reflects differences in water availability and the intensity of environmental stress across habitats. The findings confirm that selected physiological indicators can serve as effective tools for the early monitoring of plant condition and for assessing the success of S. lapponum translocation. Full article

The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) are key economic growth poles in China, playing a critical role in driving national economic development and facilitating international exchanges in commerce, culture, and ecology. However, rapid urbanization and industrialization have exerted considerable pressure on regional environments. In this study, we first assessed the dynamics of carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ) in the GBA and the YRD from 2000 to 2020 using the InVEST model and ArcGIS software, systematically analyzing their spatiotemporal changes and underlying driving mechanisms. Subsequently, we employed the PLUS model to predict land use changes by 2030 and evaluate their potential impacts on CS and HQ. The results indicate that: (1) Both regions have experienced increases in construction land and declines in cropland. (2) Between 2000 and 2020, CS in the GBA decreased by 33.65 × 10⁶ t and HQ declined by 0.0833, whereas in the YRD, CS decreased by 15.35 × 10⁶ t and HQ dropped by 0.0504. (3) By 2030, CS in the GBA is projected to decline further by 4.08%, with HQ decreasing to 0.4777, while in the YRD, CS is expected to fall by 2.71% and HQ decrease to 0.4115. (4) The spatial differentiation of CS and HQ in the GBA is primarily driven by anthropogenic processes, whereas in the YRD it is mainly constrained by natural factors such as topography. This study highlights the importance of understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of CS and HQ, which can help enhance ecosystem service functions, mitigate the impacts of climate change, and provide a scientific basis for regional sustainable development. Full article

Poyang Lake represents China’s largest freshwater wetland. The wetland landscape has undergone substantial changes driven by climate change and intensive human activities. Nevertheless, long-term classified analyses of wetland evolution and quantitative assessments of its driving factors remain scarce in the region. Based on 21 Landsat images from 2000 to 2020, this study systematically examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of the wetland landscape. Analyses incorporated land-use dynamic degree, landscape metrics, transfer matrices, and standard deviational ellipses, with key driving forces identified via Pearson correlation and structural equation modeling. Results indicate a 3029.63 km² reduction in wetland area, exhibiting contrasting trends between natural and artificial wetlands. The wetland centroid shifted 7.4 km southwestward. Connectivity of lake increased and fragmentation declined, whereas paddy field fragmentation intensified. Wetland evolution was predominantly driven by socioeconomic factors, whereas climate primarily influenced natural wetlands. The study elucidates the coupled effects of anthropogenic and natural factors, offering insights into wetland restoration and ecological security in the middle and lower Yangtze River. The findings suggest prioritizing natural wetland connectivity, controlling wetland-to-non-wetland conversion, and incorporating long-term remote-sensing monitoring into regional wetland restoration planning. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of longwave radiation variability in the Arctic based on unique measurements collected at the North Pole drifting station SP-28 in 1987. The primary objective is to compare these historical observations with modern datasets from the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA, 1997–1998) and the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC, 2019–2020) to evaluate long-term changes in the Arctic radiation regime. Continuous longwave radiation measurements were obtained using high-precision spectral pyrgeometers to identify Arctic haze. The results show that in 1987, Arctic haze layers enhanced the downward longwave flux by 15–20 W·m⁻² and increased atmospheric emissivity. In contrast, MOSAiC observations reveal emissivity values that closely match aerosol-free model calculations, indicating a substantial decline in Arctic haze and the diminishment of radiatively significant aerosol layers. This shift is in alignment with the long-term reduction of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions across the Northern Hemisphere. Full article

Sustainable management of peatlands is one of the key global strategies for mitigating climate change. The balance between carbon (C) sequestration and emission in peatlands reflects environmental conditions over time and can provide insight into long-term ecosystem dynamics. However, current methods for estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes are often labor-intensive, costly, and site-specific. In this study, we propose a simplified and cost-efficient method to estimate long-term carbon balance in peatlands based on the inorganic (mineral) content of drill core samples. The approach uses exponential decay equations to approximate peat accumulation and decomposition processes over time. A conceptual model is applied that accounts for both anaerobic transformation of organic matter of varying molecular complexity and enhanced aerobic decomposition resulting from anthropogenic drainage during the last century. The model was applied to more than 100 drill cores from four peatland systems in Estonia. The resulting trends were compared qualitatively with known climatic fluctuations of the last millennium, including periods associated with the Little Ice Age. The results suggest that, in many cases, carbon losses from decomposition in deeper peat layers may exceed carbon accumulation in upper layers, even in peatlands that appear to be well preserved. The proposed method provides a rapid, low-cost, first-order approximation of peatland carbon dynamics and may serve as a complementary tool for large-scale assessments where detailed process-based models are not feasible. Full article

Macrozoobenthic communities function as important bioindicators of natural and anthropogenic pressures in transitional ecosystems and contribute to ecosystem processes. Transitional systems, such as lagoons, estuaries and coastal ponds, exhibit strong physico-chemical variability, often intensified by anthropogenic pressures and climate change. Changes in macrozoobenthic communities across five Veneto Po Delta lagoons were assessed through long-term monitoring (2008–2025) conducted within the Water Framework Directive and additional monitoring activities. The macrozoobenthic communities were analysed to assess temporal variability and inter-lagoon differences in the Po Delta system; ecological indices were generally stable, but organism density showed significant interannual fluctuations, with marked declines in 2008, 2009, 2024, and 2025. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified phases of community restructuring driven by temporal shifts in species composition and relative abundance. These patterns may reflect the interacting effects of multiple stressors, including long-term anthropogenic pressures and the recent expansion of the invasive blue crab Callinectes sapidus, although causality was not assessed. Increases in water temperature and suspended solids were observed across all lagoons, potentially affecting benthic communities. Overall, this study provides an assessment of macrozoobenthic variability and a preliminary analysis of the factors that may have influenced it, highlighting patterns that warrant further investigations to elucidate the underlying mechanisms. Full article

Runoff on the Chinese Loess Plateau has declined substantially over recent decades, but the relative roles of climate change and non-climatic disturbance remain debated. Here, we provide a robust regional attribution of runoff reduction across 14 major catchments during 1961–2009 by integrating seven Budyko-based climate elasticity methods with long-term hydro-meteorological analysis and change-point detection. Across the region, runoff and runoff coefficients decreased markedly, while evapotranspiration and leaf area index increased, indicating a widespread reduction in catchment water yield. Runoff showed consistently greater sensitivity to precipitation than to potential evapotranspiration, highlighting precipitation as the primary climatic control on runoff variability. However, the Budyko-based climatic component explained only part of the observed runoff decline, and the residual component not explained by annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration was large in many catchments, with estimated contributions generally exceeding 50% and reaching more than 80% in several basins. Independent evidence, including vegetation greening, the expansion of ecological engineering measures, and increasing anthropogenic water demand, suggests that this residual was at least partly associated with human disturbance, although other non-Budyko climatic and hydrological processes may also contribute. These results indicate that annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration alone cannot explain runoff decline across much of the Loess Plateau and underscore the need to jointly consider climatic forcing, land surface alteration, and direct human water use in regional water management. Full article

Geosites in the Safi Province in Morocco are increasingly exposed to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors (landslides, karstification, pollution, improper visitor behavior, etc.) that threaten their integrity and accelerate their degradation. Assessing geoheritage degradation risks is therefore a fundamental step in any geoconservation strategy, particularly given the growing impacts of climate change on Morocco’s Atlantic coastline. This study proposes a quantitative methodology for evaluating degradation risk by integrating extrinsic factors that can damage geosites. The methodology was applied to the Safi Province, an area characterized by exceptional geological diversity—ranging from coastal cliffs and marine terraces to karst systems, Quaternary deposits, and paleontological and archaeological sites of international significance such as Jbel Irhoud. Three main criteria were used to assess degradation risk: anthropogenic vulnerability, public use, and natural vulnerability, each supported by a set of detailed parameters enabling precise numerical evaluation. The results show that degradation risk in Safi’s geosites is primarily driven by a lack of awareness of and recognition of their geological importance, leading to public misuse, inadequate management, uncontrolled access, and unregulated extraction. Moreover, the region’s strong coastal dynamics amplify natural vulnerability, especially at geosites along exposed cliffs, beaches, and estuarine environments. Overall, the findings provide a comprehensive assessment of the condition of Safi’s geosites and constitute a valuable tool for the planning, prioritization, and implementation of effective protection and management measures, particularly in the face of increasing pressures associated with climate and environmental change. Full article

The oceans have absorbed most of the excess heat generated by anthropogenic climate change, yet the temporal structure of this warming remains insufficiently understood. This study analyses global temperature anomaly records from polar, tropical, and hemispheric regions over the period January 1850–October 2025, using fractionally integrated time-series methods to characterize long-range dependence and persistent warming. The results reveal statistically significant long memory across all regions, with particularly high persistence in the tropical Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific, as well as robust warming trends in polar and hemispheric aggregates series. These findings indicate that ocean warming is a structurally persistent process with implications for environmental governance. The strong climatic inertia observed suggests that policy frameworks with short planning horizons may underestimate long-term risks, underscoring the need to incorporate long-memory processes into climate risk assessments and the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Full article

The Lhalu Wetland National Nature Reserve, the largest natural urban wetland on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, plays a critical role in maintaining regional ecological balance and biodiversity. However, the baseline biodiversity of this reserve remains unclear because of the extensive temporal span of historical records, shifts in taxonomic systems, and inconsistent survey methodologies, which impedes a robust scientific understanding of its ecological dynamics. This study systematically compiled and taxonomically verified species records from over 50 sources spanning the 1950s to the present. The records cover plants, fish, birds, and amphibians/reptiles, thereby resolving issues of synonyms, homonyms, and misidentifications. Each species record is annotated with its original survey time, allowing users to distinguish historically reported occurrences from those recorded in recent surveys. Species accumulation curves were constructed for major taxa and compared with 45-year climatic trends (1979–2023) and socioeconomic indicators for Lhasa City. A total of 438 vascular plant species (82 families, 251 genera) and 311 animal species (39 orders, 98 families), including 30 fishes, 174 birds, and 11 amphibians/reptiles, were documented. Invasive species comprised 55 alien plants and 13 alien fishes, while 4 plant and 46 animal species are under national protection. Temporal synchrony between increases in alien taxa and anthropogenic pressures (gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth, infrastructure development) suggests that human activities may be a potential driver of biodiversity change, but formal causal inference is precluded by heterogeneity in survey methods and sampling effort. This work provides a structured dataset of the biodiversity baseline of the Lhalu Wetland and offers a descriptive assessment of its temporal patterns in relation to climate and human disturbance, while explicitly acknowledging data limitations. It provides essential data and theoretical support for the scientific management and targeted conservation of plateau urban wetlands. Full article

Sustainable groundwater management in regions subjected to intensive agricultural pressure requires reliable simulation tools capable of anticipating the impacts of climate change. However, in overexploited multilayer aquifers such as Tierra del Vino, locally calibrated predictive tools capable of quantifying climate-driven piezometric decline remain scarce. This study develops a numerical groundwater flow model using MODFLOW for the Tierra del Vino aquifer (Spain), a multilayer detrital system currently characterized by a critical quantitative status. Agricultural irrigation accounts for approximately 94% of total groundwater withdrawals, making it the dominant anthropogenic pressure on the system. The model was manually calibrated through more than 500 iterations, achieving a consistent representation of groundwater dynamics. Statistical evaluation based on groundwater level data from 34 piezometric monitoring points distributed across the aquifer yielded a good fit (NSE = 0.816; R = 0.928), supporting the suitability of the model for scenario analysis. Under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario, aquifer recharge could decrease by 31.75%, resulting in a significant piezometric decline within the system. At the representative well selected for the farm-scale agricultural impact analysis, this decline reaches 3.33 m and is used to evaluate its effect on pumping energy costs. The implementation of management measures proposed by the water authority reduces this decline to 1.84 m, although overexploitation conditions persist. These results indicate that current administrative restrictions are insufficient on their own and that future management should adjust abstraction rights to projected recharge conditions, maintaining the exploitation index below 0.8 to reduce the risk of long-term overexploitation. In this context, aquifer resilience is interpreted as the capacity of the groundwater system to respond to the combined pressures of climate change and agricultural abstraction while maintaining its hydrological functioning. Full article

Synergistic governance of air pollution and carbon is crucial for green transition against the backdrop of global climate change. This study explores the spatial synergistic characteristics and driving mechanisms between air pollutants and CO₂ across China in 2021 from both emission and concentration perspectives, filling the gap of single-perspective analysis. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (WRF-VPRM) to simulate CO₂ concentrations, integrating the China High Air Pollutants (CHAPs) air pollution data, anthropogenic emission inventories, the coupling and coordination degree (CCD) model, and Geodetector analysis. Results show significant regional and seasonal differences in carbon–pollutant coordination. High-emission and high-coordination zones are concentrated in North China, southern Northeast China, and eastern coastal areas, with CO, NO₂, and O₃ exhibiting stronger coordination with CO₂ than PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and SO₂. Emission synergy is mainly driven by population and GDP with strong GDP-related two-factor enhancement, while concentration synergy is mainly driven by air temperature and temperature–NDVI coupling. These findings highlight the joint effects of socioeconomic, meteorological, and ecological factors, supporting targeted pollution reduction and carbon mitigation strategies and providing a scientific basis for China’s dual carbon strategy and sustainable development. Full article

Rain-on-snow (ROS) is a hydrometeorological phenomenon in which liquid precipitation falls onto an existing snowpack, augmenting runoff through the combined effects of rainfall and accelerated snowmelt. Anthropogenic climate change is progressively shifting the rain-to-snow partitioning of precipitation and altering land-surface conditions across mid- to high-latitude mountainous regions, thereby heightening flood potential. Most previous work, however, has addressed ROS at regional scales and over historical periods; hemispheric-scale assessments of future ROS dynamics and their implications for flood hazard and societal exposure remain scarce. Here we apply 10 bias-corrected CMIP6 models together with ERA5-Land reanalysis data to project changes in ROS days across the Northern Hemisphere under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. ROS days are coupled with flood frequency analysis to quantify changes in ROS flood occurrence, and gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data are integrated to evaluate future population-socioeconomic exposure. Under low-to-medium emission scenarios, ROS days increase substantially over historical hotspots, whereas under high-emission scenarios they decline at mid- to high latitudes yet expand into previously unaffected high-latitude and inland cold regions. ROS flood days respond nonlinearly to ROS frequency because progressive snow water equivalent loss limits runoff generation, causing ROS floods to decrease in some mountainous areas even as ROS events become more frequent. Population-socioeconomic exposure exhibits a corresponding polarization: it declines in mid-latitude regions where snow cover is disappearing but rises sharply at high latitudes, with high-emission pathways accelerating the northward migration of disaster risk. These findings bridge critical gaps in large-scale ROS climatology and shed light on future changes in ROS-induced hydrological extremes. Besides, the findings facilitate the creation of regionally focused adaptation strategies and provide useful references for integrating climate model projections with remote sensing observations to improve future monitoring and risk assessment of ROS-related floods. Full article

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) is a critical indicator of ecosystem carbon sink capacity. However, the nonlinear response of CUE to complex environmental drivers remains poorly understood in subtropical humid regions. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation CUE in the Poyang Lake Basin (PYLB) from 2001 to 2020 and quantified the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors using XGBoost-SHAP and GeoDetector models. The results showed that: (1) The average annual CUE in the PYLB was 0.455, exhibiting a declining trend, with a linear rate of −0.001524 yr⁻¹. (2) SHAP analysis revealed that the association between LAI and CUE exhibited a non-monotonic transition at a threshold of approximately 1.80. Specifically, while lower LAI levels were positively correlated with CUE, this relationship shifted to a negative trend as LAI exceeded the threshold, demonstrating a phase-specific coupling pattern across the canopy density gradient. For hydrothermal drivers, CUE exhibited localized downward fluctuations when precipitation was between 1700 and 2700 mm and temperature ranged from 15.0 to 18.0 °C. (3) GeoDetector analysis indicated that LAI was the dominant individual factor controlling the spatial heterogeneity of CUE (q = 0.471), and its interaction with TEM exerted the strongest synergistic effect (q = 0.493). These results emphasize the necessity of considering nonlinear thresholds and factor interactions when evaluating ecosystem carbon budgets in changing climates. Full article