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18 pages, 3079 KB  
Article
Optimizing Water–Sediment, Ecological, and Socioeconomic Management in Cascade Reservoirs in the Yellow River: A Multi-Target Decision Framework
by Donglin Li, Rui Li, Gang Liu and Chang Zhang
Water 2025, 17(19), 2823; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17192823 - 26 Sep 2025
Viewed by 439
Abstract
Multi-target optimization management of reservoirs plays a crucial role in balancing multiple scheduling objectives, thereby contributing to watershed sustainability. In this study, a model was developed for the multi-target optimization scheduling of water–sediment, ecological, and socioeconomic objectives of reservoirs with multi-dimensional scheduling needs, [...] Read more.
Multi-target optimization management of reservoirs plays a crucial role in balancing multiple scheduling objectives, thereby contributing to watershed sustainability. In this study, a model was developed for the multi-target optimization scheduling of water–sediment, ecological, and socioeconomic objectives of reservoirs with multi-dimensional scheduling needs, including flood control, sediment discharge, ecological protection, and socio-economic development. After obtaining the Pareto solution set by solving the optimization model, a decision model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) was constructed to select optimal scheduling schemes, resulting in the development of a multi-target decision framework for reservoirs. The proposed framework not only mitigates multi-target conflicts among water–sediment, ecological, and socioeconomic objectives but also quantifies the different preferences of decision-makers. The framework was then applied to six cascade reservoirs (Longyangxia, Liujiaxia, Haibowan, Wanjiazhai, Sanmenxia, and Xiaolangdi) in the Yellow River basin of China. A whole-river multi-target decision model was developed for water–sediment, ecological, and socioeconomic objectives, and the cooperation–competition dynamics among multiple objectives and decision schemes were analyzed for wet, normal, and dry years. The results demonstrated the following: (1) sediment discharge goals and ecological goals were somewhat competitive, and sediment discharge goals and power generation goals were highly competitive, while ecological goals and power generation goals were cooperative, and cooperation–competition relationships among the three objectives was particularly pronounced in dry years; (2) the decision plans for abundant, normal, and low water years were S293, S241, and S386, respectively, and all are consistent with actual dispatch conditions; (3) compared to local models, the whole-river multi-target scheduling model achieved increases of 71.01 × 106 t in maximum sediment discharge, 0.72% in maximum satisfaction rate of suitable ecological flow, and 0.20 × 109 kW·h in maximum power generation; and (4) compared to conventional decision methods, the CPT-based approach yielded rational results with substantially enhanced sensitivity, indicating its suitability for selecting and decision-making of various schemes. This study provides insights into the establishment of multi-target dispatching models for reservoirs and decision-making processes for scheduling schemes. Full article
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21 pages, 4360 KB  
Article
Chaos-Enhanced Harris Hawks Optimizer for Cascade Reservoir Operation with Ecological Flow Similarity
by Zhengyang Tang, Shuai Liu, Hui Qin, Yongchuan Zhang, Xin Zhu, Xiaolin Chen and Pingan Ren
Sustainability 2025, 17(19), 8616; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17198616 - 25 Sep 2025
Viewed by 171
Abstract
In the pursuit of sustainable development, optimizing water resources management while maintaining ecological balance is crucial. This study introduces a Chaos-enhanced Harris Hawks Optimizer (CEHHO) aimed at optimizing natural flow patterns in cascade reservoirs. First, an ecological scheduling model considering ensuring guaranteed output [...] Read more.
In the pursuit of sustainable development, optimizing water resources management while maintaining ecological balance is crucial. This study introduces a Chaos-enhanced Harris Hawks Optimizer (CEHHO) aimed at optimizing natural flow patterns in cascade reservoirs. First, an ecological scheduling model considering ensuring guaranteed output is established based on the similarity of ecological flows. Subsequently, the CEHHO algorithm is proposed, which uses tilted skew chaos mapping for population initialization, improving the quality of the initial population. In the exploration phase, an adaptive strategy enhances the efficiency of group search algorithms, enabling effective navigation of the complex solution space. A random difference mutation strategy, combined with the Q-learning algorithm, mitigates premature convergence and maintains algorithmic diversity. Comparative analysis with the existing technology under different typical hydrological frequency shows that the search accuracy and convergence efficiency of the proposed method are significantly improved. Under the guaranteed output limit of 1000 MW, the proposed method enhances the optimal, median, mean, and worst values by 293.92, 493.23, 422.14, and 381.15, respectively, compared to the HHO. Furthermore, the results of the multi-purpose guaranteed output scenario highlight the superior detection and exploitation capabilities of this algorithm. These findings highlight the great potential of the proposed method for practical engineering applications, providing a reliable tool for optimizing water resources management while maintaining ecological balance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Energy Sustainability)
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26 pages, 169896 KB  
Article
High Diversity and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Silica-Scaled Chrysophytes (Class Chrysophyceae) in Reservoirs of the Angara Cascade of Hydroelectric Dams
by Anna Bessudova, Yuri Galachyants, Alena Firsova, Artyom Marchenkov, Andrey Tanichev, Darya Petrova and Yelena Likhoshway
Biology 2025, 14(10), 1325; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14101325 - 25 Sep 2025
Viewed by 238
Abstract
The study of aquatic biodiversity in the context of ecosystem sustainability is of urgent research importance, with several existing knowledge gaps. Among the under-studied groups are silica-scaled chrysophytes. Their cells are covered with silica scales and bristles/spines, the species-specific structure of which can [...] Read more.
The study of aquatic biodiversity in the context of ecosystem sustainability is of urgent research importance, with several existing knowledge gaps. Among the under-studied groups are silica-scaled chrysophytes. Their cells are covered with silica scales and bristles/spines, the species-specific structure of which can be distinguished only by electron microscopy. In June and August 2024, samples were collected from a broad aquatic system comprising the southern part of Lake Baikal and a cascade of four reservoirs formed after the construction of hydroelectric dams on the Angara River flowing from Lake Baikal. Using electron microscopy, we identified 45 species of silica-scaled chrysophytes in phytoplankton in 2024, and the overall checklist was expanded to 57, accounting for interannual differences. Clear differences in species composition and richness were observed both between seasons and among reservoirs. Approximately a quarter of the recorded species were heterotrophs, which do not contribute to primary production, whereas 44% were phototrophs and 31% mixotrophs, both groups contributing to the Si cycle and to primary production. Continuous monitoring of reservoirs is essential for understanding the processes shaping silica-scaled chrysophytes diversity and may serve as an additional criterion for assessing the sustainability and transformation of freshwater ecosystems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Microbiology)
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17 pages, 1980 KB  
Article
Occurrence Characteristics and Ecological Risk Assessment of Microplastics in Aquatic Environments of Cascade Reservoirs Along the Middle-Lower Han River
by Ruining Zhang, Ziwei Guo, Li Lin, Xiong Pan, Yu Gao and Yuqiang Liu
Water 2025, 17(19), 2793; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17192793 - 23 Sep 2025
Viewed by 365
Abstract
The presence and accumulation of microplastics (MPs) in riverine waters have been widely documented. The sustained operation of cascade reservoirs has altered the retention characteristics of MPs in the Han River basin. In this study, the composition, sources, and ecological risks of MPs [...] Read more.
The presence and accumulation of microplastics (MPs) in riverine waters have been widely documented. The sustained operation of cascade reservoirs has altered the retention characteristics of MPs in the Han River basin. In this study, the composition, sources, and ecological risks of MPs in the water column and sediments of the Han River mainstream across different periods were investigated. Results showed that the MP abundances in the water column and sediments were higher during the flood season than in the non-flood season. Additionally, MPs in the water column exhibited an increasing trend along the operational sequence of cascade reservoirs. During the flood season, polyamide (PA), polyethylene (PE), and polypropylene (PP) were the dominant MP types in the water column, while polycarbonate (PC) and PP prevailed in sediments. In the non-flood season, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) was the dominant MP type in the water column, whereas PC and PET dominated in sediments. Overall, the distribution characteristics of MPs conformed to the “upstream input-reservoir accumulation-downstream output” pattern. The pollution risk of MPs in both the water column and sediments ranged from low to moderate. These findings provide a basis for exploring the impacts of cascade reservoir operation on the characteristics of MP in water and sediments. Future research will focus on migration mechanisms of MP under the joint operation of cascade reservoirs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Water Quality and Contamination)
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20 pages, 1621 KB  
Article
An Optimization Method for Day-Ahead Generation Interval of Cascade Hydropower Adapting to Multi-Source Coordinated Scheduling Requirements
by Shushan Li, Chonghao Li, Huijun Wu, Zhipeng Zhao, Huan Wang, Yongxi Kang, Chuntian Cheng and Changhong Li
Energies 2025, 18(18), 4901; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18184901 - 15 Sep 2025
Viewed by 268
Abstract
Multi-source coordinated scheduling has become the predominant operational paradigm in power systems. However, substantial differences among hydropower, thermal power, wind power, and photovoltaic sources in terms of response speed, regulation capability, and operational constraints—particularly the complex generation characteristics and spatiotemporal hydraulic coupling of [...] Read more.
Multi-source coordinated scheduling has become the predominant operational paradigm in power systems. However, substantial differences among hydropower, thermal power, wind power, and photovoltaic sources in terms of response speed, regulation capability, and operational constraints—particularly the complex generation characteristics and spatiotemporal hydraulic coupling of large-scale cascade hydropower stations—significantly increase the complexity of coordinated scheduling. Therefore, this study proposes an optimization method for determining the day-ahead generation intervals of cascade hydropower, applicable to multi-source coordinated scheduling scenarios. The method fully accounts for the operational characteristics of hydropower and the requirements of coordinated scheduling. By incorporating stochastic operational processes, such as reservoir levels and power outputs, feasible boundaries are constructed to represent the inherent uncertainties in hydropower operations. A stochastic optimization model is then formulated to determine the generation intervals. To enhance computational tractability and solution accuracy, a linearization technique for stochastic constraints based on duality theory is introduced, enabling efficient and reliable identification of hydropower generation capability intervals under varying system conditions. In practical applications, other energy sources can develop their generation schedules based on the feasible generation intervals provided by hydropower, thereby effectively reducing the complexity of multi-source coordination and fully leveraging the regulation potential of hydropower. Multi-scenario simulations conducted on six downstream cascade reservoirs in a river basin in Southwest China demonstrate that the proposed method significantly enhances system adaptability and scheduling efficiency. The method exhibits strong engineering applicability and provides robust support for multi-source coordinated operation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Optimal Schedule of Hydropower and New Energy Power Systems)
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26 pages, 7402 KB  
Article
Hybrid Architecture for Tight Sandstone: Automated Mineral Identification and Quantitative Petrology
by Lanfang Dong, Chenxu Sun, Xiaolu Yu, Xinming Zhang, Menglian Chen and Mingyang Xu
Minerals 2025, 15(9), 962; https://doi.org/10.3390/min15090962 - 11 Sep 2025
Viewed by 335
Abstract
This study proposes an integrated computer vision system for automated petrological analysis of tight sandstone micro-structures. The system combines Zero-Shot Segmentation SAM (Segment Anything Model), Mask R-CNN (Region-Based Convolutional Neural Networks) instance segmentation, and an improved MetaFormer architecture with Cascaded Group Attention (CGA) [...] Read more.
This study proposes an integrated computer vision system for automated petrological analysis of tight sandstone micro-structures. The system combines Zero-Shot Segmentation SAM (Segment Anything Model), Mask R-CNN (Region-Based Convolutional Neural Networks) instance segmentation, and an improved MetaFormer architecture with Cascaded Group Attention (CGA) attention mechanism, together with a parameter analysis module to form a hybrid deep learning system. This enables end-to-end mineral identification and multi-scale structural quantification of granulometric properties, grain contact relationships, and pore networks. The system is validated on proprietary tight sandstone datasets, SMISD (Sandstone Microscopic Image Segmentation Dataset)/SMIRD (Sandstone Microscopic Image Recognition Dataset). It achieves 92.1% mIoU segmentation accuracy and 90.7% mineral recognition accuracy while reducing processing time from more than 30 min to less than 2 min per sample. The system provides standardized reservoir characterization through automated generation of quantitative reports (Excel), analytical images (JPG), and structured data (JSON), demonstrating production-ready efficiency for tight sandstone evaluation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Mineral Exploration Methods and Applications)
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16 pages, 2016 KB  
Article
Experimental Study on the Response Mechanisms of Drift Egg Transport and Adhesive Egg Hatching to Reservoir Impoundment in the Lower Jinsha River
by Lekui Zhu, Wenchao Li, Dong Chen, Yiheng Gao and Rui Han
Animals 2025, 15(17), 2488; https://doi.org/10.3390/ani15172488 - 25 Aug 2025
Viewed by 603
Abstract
Understanding the impoundment effects of cascade reservoirs on fish reproduction is essential for the conservation and management of river ecosystems. Using the lower Jinsha River as an eco-hydraulic reference, this study conducted laboratory experiments to investigate how hydrodynamic–microtopography interactions influence the near-bed transport [...] Read more.
Understanding the impoundment effects of cascade reservoirs on fish reproduction is essential for the conservation and management of river ecosystems. Using the lower Jinsha River as an eco-hydraulic reference, this study conducted laboratory experiments to investigate how hydrodynamic–microtopography interactions influence the near-bed transport of drifting fish eggs and how sediment deposition affects the hatching success of adhesive demersal eggs. A predictive formula for near-bed egg drift was established, and a novel threshold for near-bed drift was proposed. In a separate set of experiments, sediment deposition was found to significantly reduce the hatching success of adhesive demersal eggs—specifically Schizothorax prenanti and Procypris rabaudi—primarily by decreasing dissolved oxygen levels (p < 0.05). These findings provide a scientific basis for improving reservoir operation strategies and mitigating the ecological impacts of sedimentation on fish reproduction in impounded rivers. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Aquatic Animals)
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27 pages, 6596 KB  
Article
A Practical Model Framework for Describing the Flow of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in a Cascade Reservoir Watershed
by Han Ding, Long Han, Zeli Li, Tong Han, Wei Jiang, Gelin Kang and Qiulian Wang
Water 2025, 17(16), 2479; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17162479 - 20 Aug 2025
Viewed by 625
Abstract
The construction of cascade reservoir systems (CRSs) is increasing globally, providing reliable energy and water resources for human social development, while also having significant impacts on the watershed water environment, particularly in terms of nitrogen and phosphorus distribution in the rivers and lakes [...] Read more.
The construction of cascade reservoir systems (CRSs) is increasing globally, providing reliable energy and water resources for human social development, while also having significant impacts on the watershed water environment, particularly in terms of nitrogen and phosphorus distribution in the rivers and lakes of these areas. Watershed management authorities urgently need model tools that can comprehensively analyze the sources of nitrogen and phosphorus in CRSs and the nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in lakes and reservoirs. Therefore, this study establishes a model framework that includes a watershed nutrient load model and a hierarchical reservoir nutrient cycling model, validating and analyzing this framework in the Water Diversion Basin from the Luanhe River to Tianjin (WDBLT) in North China, which yields nitrogen and phosphorus substance flows over different time scales. The conclusions show that banning cage culture and curbing point sources improved reservoir water quality, and the internal TP flux serves as a key environmental indicator. This model framework is scientifically sound, easy to operate, and does not require high data demands, demonstrating high practical value for similar water environmental management in CRS. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Hydraulics and Hydrodynamics)
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26 pages, 4059 KB  
Review
Instability Mechanisms and Wellbore-Stabilizing Drilling Fluids for Marine Gas Hydrate Reservoirs: A Review
by Qian Liu, Bin Xiao, Guanzheng Zhuang, Yun Li and Qiang Li
Energies 2025, 18(16), 4392; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18164392 - 18 Aug 2025
Viewed by 785
Abstract
The safe exploitation of marine natural gas hydrates, a promising cleaner energy resource, is hindered by reservoir instability during drilling. The inherent temperature–pressure sensitivity and cementation of hydrate-bearing sediments leads to severe operational risks, including borehole collapse, gas invasion, and even blowouts. This [...] Read more.
The safe exploitation of marine natural gas hydrates, a promising cleaner energy resource, is hindered by reservoir instability during drilling. The inherent temperature–pressure sensitivity and cementation of hydrate-bearing sediments leads to severe operational risks, including borehole collapse, gas invasion, and even blowouts. This review synthesizes the complex instability mechanisms and evaluates the state of the art in inhibitive, wellbore-stabilizing drilling fluids. The analysis first deconstructs the multiphysics-coupled failure process, where drilling-induced disturbances trigger a cascade of thermodynamic decomposition, kinetic-driven gas release, and geomechanical strength degradation. Subsequently, current drilling fluid strategies are critically assessed. This includes evaluating the limitations of conventional thermodynamic inhibitors (salts, alcohols, and amines) and the advancing role of kinetic inhibitors and anti-agglomerants. Innovations in wellbore reinforcement using nanomaterials and functional polymers to counteract mechanical failure are also highlighted. Finally, a forward-looking perspective is proposed, emphasizing the need for multiscale predictive models that bridge molecular interactions with macroscopic behavior. Future research should prioritize the development of “smart”, multifunctional, and green drilling fluid materials, integrated with real-time monitoring and control systems. This integrated approach is essential for unlocking the potential of marine gas hydrates safely and efficiently. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section H1: Petroleum Engineering)
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21 pages, 8772 KB  
Article
Assessing Hydropower Impacts on Flood and Drought Hazards in the Lancang–Mekong River Using CNN-LSTM Machine Learning
by Muzi Zhang, Boying Chi, Hongbin Gu, Jian Zhou, Honggang Chen, Weiwei Wang, Yicheng Wang, Juanjuan Chen, Xueqian Yang and Xuan Zhang
Water 2025, 17(15), 2352; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152352 - 7 Aug 2025
Viewed by 801
Abstract
The efficient and rational development of hydropower in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin can promote green energy transition, reduce carbon emissions, prevent and mitigate flood and drought disasters, and ensure the sustainable development of the entire basin. In this study, based on publicly available [...] Read more.
The efficient and rational development of hydropower in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin can promote green energy transition, reduce carbon emissions, prevent and mitigate flood and drought disasters, and ensure the sustainable development of the entire basin. In this study, based on publicly available hydrometeorological observation data and satellite remote sensing monitoring data from 2001 to 2020, a machine learning model of the Lancang–Mekong Basin was developed to reconstruct the basin’s hydrological processes, and identify the occurrence patterns and influencing mechanisms of water-related hazards. The results show that, against the background of climate change, the Lancang–Mekong Basin is affected by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. In particular, Rx1day, Rx5day, R10mm, and R95p (extreme precipitation indicators determined by the World Meteorological Organization’s Expert Group on Climate Change Monitoring and Extreme Climate Events) in the northwestern part of the Mekong River Basin show upward trends, with the average maximum daily rainfall increasing by 1.8 mm/year and the total extreme precipitation increasing by 18 mm/year on average. The risks of flood and drought disasters will continue to rise. The flood peak period is mainly concentrated in August and September, with the annual maximum flood peak ranging from 5600 to 8500 m3/s. The Stung Treng Station exhibits longer drought duration, greater severity, and higher peak intensity than the Chiang Saen and Pakse Stations. At the Pakse Station, climate change and hydropower development have altered the non-drought proportion by −12.50% and +15.90%, respectively. For the Chiang Saen Station, the fragmentation degree of the drought index time series under the baseline, naturalized, and hydropower development scenarios is 0.901, 1.16, and 0.775, respectively. These results indicate that hydropower development has effectively reduced the frequency of rapid drought–flood transitions within the basin, thereby alleviating pressure on drought management efforts. The regulatory role of the cascade reservoirs in the Lancang River can mitigate risks posed by climate change, weaken adverse effects, reduce flood peak flows, alleviate hydrological droughts in the dry season, and decrease flash drought–flood transitions in the basin. The research findings can enable basin managers to proactively address climate change, develop science-based technical pathways for hydropower dispatch, and formulate adaptive disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Water and Climate Change)
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22 pages, 2030 KB  
Article
A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for Cascade Reservoir Operations Under Runoff Uncertainty
by Jing Xu, Jiabin Qiao, Qianli Sun and Keyan Shen
Water 2025, 17(15), 2324; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152324 - 5 Aug 2025
Viewed by 1149
Abstract
Effective management of cascade reservoir systems is essential for balancing hydropower generation, flood control, and ecological sustainability, especially under increasingly uncertain runoff conditions driven by climate change. Traditional optimization methods, while widely used, often struggle with high dimensionality and fail to adequately address [...] Read more.
Effective management of cascade reservoir systems is essential for balancing hydropower generation, flood control, and ecological sustainability, especially under increasingly uncertain runoff conditions driven by climate change. Traditional optimization methods, while widely used, often struggle with high dimensionality and fail to adequately address inflow variability. This study introduces a novel deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework that tightly couples probabilistic runoff forecasting with adaptive reservoir scheduling. We integrate a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to model runoff uncertainty and generate probabilistic inflow forecasts, which are then embedded into a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm via Monte Carlo sampling. This unified forecast–optimize architecture allows for dynamic policy adjustment in response to stochastic hydrological conditions. A case study on China’s Xiluodu–Xiangjiaba cascade system demonstrates that the proposed LSTM-PPO framework achieves superior performance compared to traditional baselines, notably improving power output, storage utilization, and spillage reduction. The results highlight the method’s robustness and scalability, suggesting strong potential for supporting resilient water–energy nexus management under complex environmental uncertainty. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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15 pages, 1711 KB  
Article
Ajuforrestin A Inhibits Tumor Proliferation and Migration by Targeting the STAT3/FAK Signaling Pathways and VEGFR-2
by Sibei Wang, Yeling Li, Mingming Rong, Yuejun Li, Yaxin Lu, Shen Li, Dongho Lee, Jing Xu and Yuanqiang Guo
Biology 2025, 14(8), 908; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14080908 - 22 Jul 2025
Viewed by 573
Abstract
Natural products, characterized by their structural novelty, multi-target capabilities, and favorable toxicity profiles, represent a prominent reservoir for the discovery of innovative anticancer therapeutics. In the current investigation, we identified ajuforrestin A, a diterpenoid compound extracted from Ajuga lupulina Maxim, as a potent [...] Read more.
Natural products, characterized by their structural novelty, multi-target capabilities, and favorable toxicity profiles, represent a prominent reservoir for the discovery of innovative anticancer therapeutics. In the current investigation, we identified ajuforrestin A, a diterpenoid compound extracted from Ajuga lupulina Maxim, as a potent agent against lung cancer. In vitro, this compound markedly curtailed the proliferation of A549 cells. Mechanistic explorations revealed that ajuforrestin A could arrest A549 cells in the G0/G1 phase of the cell cycle, provoke apoptosis in cancer cells, and impede their migration by modulating the STAT3 and FAK signaling cascades. Angiogenesis is indispensable for tumor formation, progression, and metastatic dissemination. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and its receptor VEGFR-2 are established as crucial mediators in tumor neovascularization, a process fundamental to both the expansion of tumor cells and the development of new blood vessels within the tumor milieu. Through the combined application of a Tg(fli1:EGFP) zebrafish model and SPR experimentation, we furnished strong evidence for the ability of ajuforrestin A to obstruct tumor angiogenesis via selective engagement with VEGFR-2. Finally, a zebrafish xenograft tumor model demonstrated that ajuforrestin A could effectively restrain tumor growth and metastasis in vivo. Ajuforrestin A therefore shows considerable promise as a lead compound for the future development of therapies against non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Biochemistry and Molecular Biology)
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16 pages, 3780 KB  
Article
Cascade Reservoir Outflow Simulation Based on Physics-Constrained Random Forest
by Zehui Zhou, Lei Yu, Yu Zhang, Benyou Jia, Luchen Zhang and Shaoze Luo
Water 2025, 17(14), 2154; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17142154 - 19 Jul 2025
Viewed by 529
Abstract
Accurate reservoir outflow simulation is crucial for water resource management. However, traditional machine learning-based simulation methods have not sufficiently considered the physical constraints of reservoir operation, which may lead to unrealistic issues such as negative outflows or water levels exceeding the reservoir’s own [...] Read more.
Accurate reservoir outflow simulation is crucial for water resource management. However, traditional machine learning-based simulation methods have not sufficiently considered the physical constraints of reservoir operation, which may lead to unrealistic issues such as negative outflows or water levels exceeding the reservoir’s own limitations. This study integrates physical constraints into the random forest (RF) model using the Sigmoid function, constructing a physics-constrained random forest model (PC-RF) for cascade reservoir outflow simulation. A stratified sampling strategy based on hydrological year types is used to create the training and validation datasets. The coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) are used to evaluate the model’s performance for medium- to long-term predictions of reservoir outflows on a 10-day time scale. Additionally, the mean decrease in impurity method is used to assess the importance of input features, thereby enhancing the model’s interpretability. The application the Yalong River cascade reservoir indicates that (1) compared to traditional RF, the PC-RF achieved significant breakthroughs, with an increase of 37.13% in the R2 and a decrease of 60.04% in the RMSE when simulating outflows from the Lianghekou Reservoir, with all reservoirs maintaining an R2 above 0.95, with no instances of unrealistic outcomes; (2) PC-RF effectively integrated historical operational patterns with top three features being previous period outflow, current inflow, and previous period inflow, providing interpretable insights for operational decision-making. The PC-RF model demonstrates high accuracy and practical potential in cascade reservoir outflow simulation, providing valuable applications for cascade reservoir management and water resource optimization. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Surface Water and Groundwater Simulation in River Basin)
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19 pages, 1167 KB  
Article
A Reservoir Group Flood Control Operation Decision-Making Risk Analysis Model Considering Indicator and Weight Uncertainties
by Tangsong Luo, Xiaofeng Sun, Hailong Zhou, Yueping Xu and Yu Zhang
Water 2025, 17(14), 2145; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17142145 - 18 Jul 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 501
Abstract
Reservoir group flood control scheduling decision-making faces multiple uncertainties, such as dynamic fluctuations of evaluation indicators and conflicts in weight assignment. This study proposes a risk analysis model for the decision-making process: capturing the temporal uncertainties of flood control indicators (such as reservoir [...] Read more.
Reservoir group flood control scheduling decision-making faces multiple uncertainties, such as dynamic fluctuations of evaluation indicators and conflicts in weight assignment. This study proposes a risk analysis model for the decision-making process: capturing the temporal uncertainties of flood control indicators (such as reservoir maximum water level and downstream control section flow) through the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, constructing a feasible weight space including four scenarios (unique fixed value, uniform distribution, etc.), resolving conflicts among the weight results from four methods (Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy Weight, Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA)) using game theory, defining decision-making risk as the probability that the actual safety level fails to reach the evaluation threshold, and quantifying risks based on the First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) method. Case verification in the cascade reservoirs of the Qiantang River Basin of China shows that the model provides a risk assessment framework integrating multi-source uncertainties for flood control scheduling decisions through probabilistic description of indicator uncertainties (e.g., Zmax1 with μ = 65.3 and σ = 8.5) and definition of weight feasible regions (99% weight distribution covered by the 3σ criterion), filling the methodological gap in risk quantification during the decision-making process in existing research. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Identification and Management, 2nd Edition)
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23 pages, 3873 KB  
Article
Coupling Machine Learning and Physically Based Hydrological Models for Reservoir-Based Streamflow Forecasting
by Benjun Jia and Wei Fang
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(13), 2314; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17132314 - 5 Jul 2025
Viewed by 1645
Abstract
High-accuracy streamflow forecasting with long lead times can help promote the efficient utilization of water resources. However, the construction of cascade reservoirs has allowed the evolution of natural continuous rivers into multi-block rivers. The existing streamflow forecasting methods fail to consider the impact [...] Read more.
High-accuracy streamflow forecasting with long lead times can help promote the efficient utilization of water resources. However, the construction of cascade reservoirs has allowed the evolution of natural continuous rivers into multi-block rivers. The existing streamflow forecasting methods fail to consider the impact of reservoir operation. Thus, a novel short-term streamflow forecasting method for multi-block watersheds was proposed by integrating machine learning and hydrological models. Firstly, based on IMERG precipitation, the forecast precipitation product’s error is corrected by the long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). Secondly, coupling convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and LSTM, operation rules for cascade reservoirs are extracted. Thirdly, a short-term deterministic streamflow forecasting model was built for multi-block watersheds. Finally, according to the sources of forecasting errors, probabilistic streamflow forecasting models based on the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) were proposed, and their performances were compared. Taking the Yalong River as an example, the main results are as follows: (1) Deep learning models (ConvLSTM and LSTM) show good performance in forecast precipitation correction and reservoir operation rule extraction, contributing to streamflow forecasting accuracy. (2) The proposed streamflow deterministic forecasting method has good forecasting performance with NSE above 0.83 for the following 1–5 days. (3) The GMM model, using upstream evolutionary forecasted streamflow, interval forecasted streamflow, and downstream forecasted streamflow as the input–output combination, has good probabilistic forecasting performance and can adequately characterize the “non-normality” and “heteroskedasticity” of forecasting uncertainty. Full article
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