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21 pages, 4536 KB  
Article
Techno-Economic Assessment of Electrochemical CO2 Reduction to Ethylene: A Cu10–Sn Catalyst Case Study and Performance Targets
by Kuquan Xiao, Ping Zhou and Xiqiang Zhao
Energies 2026, 19(10), 2462; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19102462 - 20 May 2026
Viewed by 256
Abstract
Electrocatalytic CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR) to ethylene (C2H4) has emerged as a promising approach for converting CO2 into valuable chemicals while utilizing renewable electricity. To facilitate the commercialization of this technology, a process-level techno-economic assessment [...] Read more.
Electrocatalytic CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR) to ethylene (C2H4) has emerged as a promising approach for converting CO2 into valuable chemicals while utilizing renewable electricity. To facilitate the commercialization of this technology, a process-level techno-economic assessment (TEA) is constructed for a plant producing 100 tons/day of C2H4 from coal-power flue gas CO2 using a membrane electrode assembly (MEA) electrolyzer and downstream gas separations. The model integrates (i) flue gas CO2 capture by chemical absorption, (ii) CO2RR to C2H4 with H2 as the only co-product, and (iii) cathode off-gas separation by pressure swing adsorption (PSA) plus anode off-gas CO2 recovery and recycle. A Cu10–Sn catalyst measured in an H-cell is projected to MEA operation by scaling current density by 10×, yielding a “Case Study in This Article” scenario of j = 246 mA·cm−2 and FE(C2H4) = 48.74%. Under this scenario, the total cost is 592.61 thousand USD/day (5926 USD/ton), dominated by electricity (39.8%). Scenario analysis shows that the total cost can decrease to 76,755.0 USD/day (767.6 USD/ton) under a future-outlook case with improved electrolyzer performance and low-cost power, enabling a net profit of 19,945.0 USD/day at an ethylene selling price of 967 USD/ton. Sensitivity analysis identifies FE(C2H4), full-cell voltage, and electricity price as the most influential variables. The results translate laboratory catalyst metrics into industrial cost drivers and clarify quantitative performance targets for commercialization. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section B: Energy and Environment)
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18 pages, 5301 KB  
Article
Study on Performance of Molten Salt Thermal Energy Storage System Coupled with a 330 MW Coal-Fired Power Plant
by Yang Zhang, Guoxu Wang, Tianyang Ding, Wen Chen and Jie Yu
Energies 2026, 19(10), 2403; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19102403 - 16 May 2026
Viewed by 254
Abstract
This study presents a comparative thermodynamic assessment of molten salt thermal energy storage (MSTES) integrated with a 330 MW subcritical coal-fired power plant. Different charging and discharging configurations based on main steam, reheat steam, and hybrid steam extraction are evaluated using HITEC salt. [...] Read more.
This study presents a comparative thermodynamic assessment of molten salt thermal energy storage (MSTES) integrated with a 330 MW subcritical coal-fired power plant. Different charging and discharging configurations based on main steam, reheat steam, and hybrid steam extraction are evaluated using HITEC salt. Thermodynamic performance is rigorously assessed via exergy analysis and equivalent round-trip efficiency. The findings indicate that system configuration exerts a substantial influence on performance: the HITEC scheme H-C5-D1 achieves an optimal balance, attaining a round-trip efficiency of 44.0% and a peak-shaving capacity of 33.4 MW. Exergy analysis identifies molten salt heat exchangers as the main source of exergy destruction, governed primarily by the steam-salt temperature difference and throttling effects. HITEC salt is advantageous in medium- and low-temperature applications. Increasing main-steam utilization in hybrid schemes enhances round-trip efficiency and storage capacity, though this comes at the cost of increased heat exchanger investment. Overall, the MSTES system significantly enhances both operational flexibility and thermal efficiency of coal-fired units. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section B: Energy and Environment)
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39 pages, 9552 KB  
Article
Stochastic Optimal Scheduling of a Multi-Energy Complementary Base Considering Multi-Resource Reserve and Thermal Power Unit Doped with Ammonia-Concentrated Solar Power Coordination
by Yunyun Yun, Kaidi Li, Xiaomin Liu, Shuaibing Li, Kai Hou, Zeyu Liu and Junmin Zhu
Energies 2026, 19(10), 2384; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19102384 - 15 May 2026
Viewed by 281
Abstract
Aiming to mitigate renewable energy curtailment and curb the carbon emissions of traditional thermal power units (TPUs), this paper proposes a stochastic optimal scheduling of a multi-energy complementary base considering multi-resource reserve and TPU doped with ammonia-concentrated solar power coordination. Firstly, the proton [...] Read more.
Aiming to mitigate renewable energy curtailment and curb the carbon emissions of traditional thermal power units (TPUs), this paper proposes a stochastic optimal scheduling of a multi-energy complementary base considering multi-resource reserve and TPU doped with ammonia-concentrated solar power coordination. Firstly, the proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer (EL) and coal-to-hydrogen (C2H) technology are combined to produce hydrogen, and a mixed-hydrogen-source ammonia production model is constructed. The low-carbon characteristics of ammonia gas are used for thermal power mixed ammonia combustion. Secondly, to alleviate the operational burden on TPUs, a collaborative operating framework integrating a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant, an electric heater (EH), and an ammonia-coal co-fired power unit (ACCPU) is introduced. Furthermore, its low-carbon mechanisms during both peak and off-peak load intervals are thoroughly investigated. Thirdly, the ‘electricity–hydrogen–ammonia’ conversion link inside the deep excavation base and the reserve potential of the CSP plant are constructed, and a variety of flexible resource collaborative reserve models are constructed. Building upon this foundation, to account for the diverse uncertainties associated with load demand, wind, and PV generation, a fuzzy chance-constrained programming method is formulated. Seeking to enhance economic efficiency, the framework focuses on lowering the aggregate operational expenditures. Ultimately, the example results demonstrate that the presented approach effectively expands the accommodation capacity for renewable energy, lowers the base’s carbon emission, and alleviates the operational strain on TPUs. Full article
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13 pages, 791 KB  
Article
Energy-Efficient Installation for Ventilation Air Methane (VAM) Reduction in Mines
by Artur Dyczko, Andrzej Drwięga, Paweł Kamiński, Krzysztof Skrzypkowski, Adam P. Niewiadomski and Natalia Koch
Energies 2026, 19(10), 2343; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19102343 - 13 May 2026
Viewed by 242
Abstract
This paper presents a conceptual design for a technological installation aimed at mitigating ventilation air methane (VAM) from coal mine exhaust shafts, offering combined heat and power generation. It addresses the challenge posed by low methane concentrations (below 0.7%), which preclude direct combustion. [...] Read more.
This paper presents a conceptual design for a technological installation aimed at mitigating ventilation air methane (VAM) from coal mine exhaust shafts, offering combined heat and power generation. It addresses the challenge posed by low methane concentrations (below 0.7%), which preclude direct combustion. To overcome this, the proposed concept involves diverting a portion of the VAM to a combustion chamber of the power boiler dedicated to co-combustion with flotation concentrate suspension, which is properly prepared for feeding into the combustion chamber. The heat generated in the power boiler produces steam to drive a turbine generator for electricity production. Back-pressure steam from the turbine can be utilized for district heating or as a thermal energy source for various industrial processes, optimizing the plant’s energy efficiency and reducing its environmental footprint. The feasibility of this technology hinges on its cost-effectiveness and energy efficiency. This aspect of efficiency has been outlined. An energy balance analysis, based on real emission data from a selected mine, is provided to determine power boiler efficiency, fuel consumption, and a VAM reduction rate. The forecast of the amount of energy produced was presented for a single installation with a grate boiler capable of co-firing fuels with a VAM flow participation of 25 m3/s. Such installations can be scaled to meet mine requirements, enabling the neutralization of VAM at a total capacity of up to 300 m3/s, which corresponds to emissions from a large ventilation shaft. Full article
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17 pages, 2480 KB  
Article
An AI-Driven SOx Prediction Framework for Enhancing Environmental Sustainability and Operational Efficiency in Coal-Fired Power Plants
by Kuo-Chien Liao and Jian-Liang Liou
Sustainability 2026, 18(10), 4843; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18104843 - 12 May 2026
Viewed by 273
Abstract
Coal-fired power units remain integral to electricity supply in many regions while facing increasingly stringent environmental expectations. Bridging reliable generation with sustainability requires more than end-of-pipe controls; it demands continuous intelligence embedded in plant operations. This study introduces an industry-oriented monitoring framework that [...] Read more.
Coal-fired power units remain integral to electricity supply in many regions while facing increasingly stringent environmental expectations. Bridging reliable generation with sustainability requires more than end-of-pipe controls; it demands continuous intelligence embedded in plant operations. This study introduces an industry-oriented monitoring framework that transforms historical operational records into actionable foresight, enabling on-the-fly orchestration of combustion conditions to anticipate sulfur oxide (SOx) concentrations. Leveraging 919 empirical data points collected in 2019 from Unit 8 of the Taichung Thermal Power Plant, the framework integrates robust data governance, targeted feature curation, and a neural network-based analytics core. Eight process variables—sulfur content, coal feed rate, fixed carbon, grinding rate, calorific value, excess air, air flow, and boiler efficiency—emerge as the most influential drivers through systematic selection and feature importance attribution. The resulting forecasting module exhibits near-perfect alignment with observed emissions (R2 = 0.99), enabling near-real-time guidance for setpoint adjustments and facilitating compliance strategies under varying load and fuel-quality conditions. Beyond accuracy, the system is architected for scalability and portability, aligning with Industry 4.0 paradigms by coupling continuous sensing, data-driven decision support, and stakeholder transparency. By reframing emission oversight as a proactive, intelligent service rather than a static reporting function, the proposed approach advances operational resilience, regulatory compliance, and community trust, with direct implications for resource efficiency and circular economy initiatives across heavy industry. The framework reduces potential SOx emissions and improves energy utilization efficiency under varying operational conditions. This approach contributes to environmental sustainability by enabling proactive emission reduction and cleaner production practices. It supports regulatory compliance and aligns with global sustainability goals, including SDG 7 and SDG 13. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue AI and ML Applications for a Sustainable Future)
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16 pages, 3518 KB  
Article
Design and Evaluation of High-Safety Differential Pressure Power Generation Technologies for Hydrogen and Ammonia Gas
by Guohui Song, Xiang Wang, Haiming Gu, Sheng Wang, Jingxin Xu, Cai Liang, Hao Zhao and Lirong Wang
Hydrogen 2026, 7(2), 65; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrogen7020065 - 8 May 2026
Viewed by 282
Abstract
The use of differential pressure energy for green hydrogen and ammonia comes with significant safety challenges. Two zero-emission technical schemes—one based on magnetic coupling transmission and another based on dual magnetic fluid seals—were proposed and designed. The energy performance of both schemes was [...] Read more.
The use of differential pressure energy for green hydrogen and ammonia comes with significant safety challenges. Two zero-emission technical schemes—one based on magnetic coupling transmission and another based on dual magnetic fluid seals—were proposed and designed. The energy performance of both schemes was first analyzed for a DN200 pipe using the DWSIM software (Version 8.6.6). Subsequently, the levelized cost of electricity and the dynamic payback period were evaluated and compared. The results show that the magnetic coupling transmission scheme exhibits relatively low energy efficiency (54.9–61.7%), whereas the scheme based on dual magnetic fluid seals is more complex yet achieves higher energy efficiency (65.8–67.1%). The levelized electricity cost of both schemes under a differential pressure of 0.5 MPa is estimated to be lower than the feed-in tariff of coal-fired power plants in China, and the dynamic payback period is estimated to be less than 5.5 years. Overall, both schemes provide benefits in energy savings and profitability. These schemes warrant further experimental investigation and pilot testing. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Technology)
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19 pages, 12142 KB  
Article
High-Precision Delineation of Coal Fire Zone Boundaries Using a Ground-Based Distributed Wide-Field Electromagnetic Method: A Case Study of the Wucaiwan, Xinjiang
by Bo Tian, Maoning Feng, Haifeng Zhu, Honggang Li, Jinping Ruan, Dafang Ning, Wankun Li, Zhengyu Liu and Yang Yang
Appl. Sci. 2026, 16(10), 4601; https://doi.org/10.3390/app16104601 - 7 May 2026
Viewed by 384
Abstract
Coal fire zones represent both severe geological hazards and viable sources of clean geothermal energy for coal-fired power plant integration. However, the precise delineation of their boundaries remains a critical scientific deficit, hindering high-resolution exploration in complex terrains. To address this, the ground-based [...] Read more.
Coal fire zones represent both severe geological hazards and viable sources of clean geothermal energy for coal-fired power plant integration. However, the precise delineation of their boundaries remains a critical scientific deficit, hindering high-resolution exploration in complex terrains. To address this, the ground-based Distributed Wide-Field Electromagnetic Method (DWFEM) was employed to investigate a surface coal mine in Xinjiang. Leveraging its high anti-interference capability and lateral resolution, DWFEM enables us to obtain high-quality data, and create the construction of a 3D geoelectrical model to characterize subsurface structures. The results demonstrate that DWFEM effectively identifies the morphology of coal fire zones, revealing a distinct NE-SW trending fracture network which has width serving as geothermal reservoirs. Compared with conventional geological data, DWFEM provides a significantly more detailed characterization and resolves internal structures undetectable by traditional surveys. This study confirms the efficacy of DWFEM in anti-interference, lateral resolution, providing essential technical support for safe mining and geothermal development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Reservoir Stimulation in Deep Geothermal Reservoir)
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23 pages, 6569 KB  
Article
Constraint-Aware Coal Blending Optimization for Coal-Fired Power Plants Using Random Forest and Coati Optimization
by Binglei Liu, Daogang Peng and Shu Chen
Appl. Sci. 2026, 16(10), 4582; https://doi.org/10.3390/app16104582 - 7 May 2026
Viewed by 200
Abstract
To address the problems of inaccurate blended coal quality prediction and difficulty in constrained coal blending optimization in coal-fired power plants, a data-driven coal blending optimization method based on Random Forest (RF) and the Coati Optimization Algorithm (COA) is proposed. First, an RF-based [...] Read more.
To address the problems of inaccurate blended coal quality prediction and difficulty in constrained coal blending optimization in coal-fired power plants, a data-driven coal blending optimization method based on Random Forest (RF) and the Coati Optimization Algorithm (COA) is proposed. First, an RF-based prediction model is developed to estimate key blended coal quality indices, including heating value, volatile matter, ash content, and sulfur content, under small-sample conditions. Second, based on actual operating data from an ultra-supercritical unit and relevant national standards, plant-specific boundary constraints for as-fired coal quality are established. Third, the RF prediction model is embedded into the COA-based optimization framework to search for blending schemes with minimum procurement cost under multiple coal quality constraints. The results show that the RF model achieves higher prediction accuracy than the conventional weighted average method for all four quality indices. In the case study, the cost-oriented optimized scheme reduces the procurement cost by 5.05% while satisfying the prescribed coal quality constraints. The proposed method provides a feasible decision-support approach for coal blending management in coal-fired power plants. Full article
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20 pages, 12478 KB  
Article
Research on Measuring Industrial Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Mobile Differential Absorption Lidar
by Jinliang Zang, Liang Wu, Wanglong Shi, Hongjun Wang, Menghui Wu and Hong Lin
Appl. Sci. 2026, 16(9), 4576; https://doi.org/10.3390/app16094576 - 6 May 2026
Viewed by 234
Abstract
Industrial activities represent the primary source of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and accurate monitoring of industrial CO2 emissions is critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the lack of quantifiable and direct measurement technologies, industrial CO2 emissions [...] Read more.
Industrial activities represent the primary source of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and accurate monitoring of industrial CO2 emissions is critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the lack of quantifiable and direct measurement technologies, industrial CO2 emissions are typically calculated based on fuel combustion consumption and emission factors. However, the calculation method is not applicable to the quantification of fugitive emissions of CO2. This work demonstrates the capability of remotely measuring industrial CO2 emissions by mobile Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system. The two-dimensional concentration distributions of the CO2 plume were remotely measured using DIAL system, and the CO2 emission rate was obtained with wind field information. The DIAL measurements were cross-validated using in-stack CEMS data and emission-factor calculations. Results show that the relative deviations of CO2 emission rates between DIAL and CEMS range from −5.83% to +2.57% across four tests, all within ±6%, and the coefficient of variation (CV) of 27 valid datasets is 7.24%. In contrast, the emission factor method yields consistently higher estimates, with relative deviations of +4.61% compared to DIAL measurements. Furthermore, the mobile DIAL system was deployed in three industrial scenarios with different emission intensities: a natural gas-fired industrial park, a photovoltaic glass manufacturing plant (low-emission steady-state), and a coal-fired power plant (high-emission dynamic), demonstrating its preliminary adaptability under different operating conditions. This study indicates the feasibility and potential reliability of the mobile DIAL system for high spatio-temporal resolution remote measurement of industrial CO2 emissions. Full article
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22 pages, 3536 KB  
Review
The Energy Transition in Bulgaria: An Analysis of Economic, Social, and Environmental Perspectives on State-Owned Companies
by Bagryan Malamin, Denitsa Zgureva-Filipova, Mina Daskalova-Karakasheva and Kalin Filipov
Energies 2026, 19(9), 2197; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19092197 - 1 May 2026
Viewed by 297
Abstract
As a member state of the European Union, Bulgaria is committed to decarbonisation and the achievement of sustainable development goals. The country has a well-established energy sector and is a net exporter of electricity produced from diverse sources. Electricity generation relies mainly on [...] Read more.
As a member state of the European Union, Bulgaria is committed to decarbonisation and the achievement of sustainable development goals. The country has a well-established energy sector and is a net exporter of electricity produced from diverse sources. Electricity generation relies mainly on two key pillars: lignite-fired Thermal Power Plants (TPPs) and the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Kozloduy. This study examines the status of Bulgarian state-owned energy companies (SOEC) and their capacity to respond to the challenges of a sustainable transition towards low- or zero-emission electricity production. The study contributes to the existing literature by providing insights from a comparative analysis of state-owned thermal and nuclear power generation in Bulgaria, examined through the lens of sustainable development. From a practical standpoint it contributes by outlining possible pathways for the sustainable transformation of carbon-intensive TPPs. The analy-sis is based on key sustainability indicators covering the three pillars of sustainable development—economic, social and environmental performance. It includes not only an assessment of the financial performance of state-owned thermal power plants and the nuclear power plant over the past five years but also selected social and environmental indicators. The findings suggest that nuclear energy production in Bulgaria is largely consistent with the core principles of sustainability, while coal-based thermal power plants face increasing economic pressures and contribute to significant environmental impacts. The results highlight the need to transform the coal-based electricity sector into a more economically viable and socially responsible alternative, such as low-carbon generation technologies including nuclear energy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section B: Energy and Environment)
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17 pages, 8460 KB  
Article
Ceramic TiO2 Membrane Modification by Coal Fly Ash (CFA) Particles
by Saidulla Faizullayev, Akbota Adilbekova, Joanna Kujawa and Wojciech Kujawski
Membranes 2026, 16(5), 157; https://doi.org/10.3390/membranes16050157 - 29 Apr 2026
Viewed by 240
Abstract
Commercial TiO2 ceramic membranes were modified using a slip-casting method with coal fly ash (CFA) obtained from a thermal power plant, Almaty, Kazakhstan. The aim was to enhance membrane surface properties for improved oil-in-water emulsion separation while maintaining structural integrity. Suspension of [...] Read more.
Commercial TiO2 ceramic membranes were modified using a slip-casting method with coal fly ash (CFA) obtained from a thermal power plant, Almaty, Kazakhstan. The aim was to enhance membrane surface properties for improved oil-in-water emulsion separation while maintaining structural integrity. Suspension of CFA, stabilized with N-dodecylpyridinium chloride (DPC) and polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), was applied as a coating layer on the TiO2 surface and subsequently sintered under controlled conditions. The resulting membranes were characterized by SEM-EDX (scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray), Raman spectroscopy, contact angle measurements, and zeta potential analysis. The modified membranes exhibited increased hydrophilicity, as indicated by a reduction in water contact angle (WCA) from 43.6 ± 2° to approximately 0°, and a decrease in the underoil contact angle of water (UOCA) from 147.6 ± 2° to 87 ± 2°. Raman spectroscopy confirmed that the TiO2 structure remained predominantly rutile, with no additional crystalline phases detected from CFA. Despite the improved wettability, pure water and oil-in-water emulsion fluxes decreased slightly, while filtrates displayed smaller oil droplet sizes, indicating enhanced emulsion stability after passage through the modified surface. These findings demonstrate that CFA-modified TiO2 membranes can serve as a sustainable and cost-effective approach for treating emulsified wastewater, utilizing industrial waste to improve performance without compromising mechanical robustness. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Membrane Applications for Water Treatment)
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22 pages, 2330 KB  
Article
Simultaneous Tuning of Cascade PID-PID Controllers for Power Plant Dust Removal Systems Based on Compensation Method
by Xinyue Ma, Yongsheng Hao, Zhuo Chen, Gang Zhao and Chunwei Li
Processes 2026, 14(9), 1392; https://doi.org/10.3390/pr14091392 - 27 Apr 2026
Viewed by 317
Abstract
Dust concentration control in coal-fired power plants is challenged by large time delays and various disturbances, particularly in dry electrostatic precipitator-wet flue gas desulfurization (DESP-WFGD) processes, where the inner-loop dynamics are slower than those of the outer loop, limiting the effectiveness of conventional [...] Read more.
Dust concentration control in coal-fired power plants is challenged by large time delays and various disturbances, particularly in dry electrostatic precipitator-wet flue gas desulfurization (DESP-WFGD) processes, where the inner-loop dynamics are slower than those of the outer loop, limiting the effectiveness of conventional cascade tuning methods. This paper proposes a compensation-based simultaneous tuning method for cascade proportional-integral-derivative (PID)-PID control systems. The cascade structure is transformed into an equivalent single-loop system, allowing the outer-loop controller to reshape the equivalent plant dynamics. An equivalent controller is then designed using the simple internal model control method, from which the inner-loop controller is derived. Controller parameters are iteratively refined based on maximum sensitivity, overshoot, and integral absolute error. A feedforward controller is further introduced to reject measurable outer-loop disturbances. Simulation results under nominal, uncertain, and noisy conditions show that the proposed method achieves zero overshoot, improved robustness, and smoother control action compared with conventional separate tuning and Lee’s simultaneous tuning method. The proposed approach provides an effective and practical solution for dust concentration control in DESP-WFGD processes, and is extendable to industrial cascade systems with similar dynamic characteristics. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Automation Control Systems)
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1 pages, 114 KB  
Correction
Correction: Gao et al. Reducing Carbon Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Plants: An Analysis Using Evolutionary Game Theory. Sustainability 2024, 16, 10550
by Jie Gao, Bo Cui and Qingmei Tan
Sustainability 2026, 18(9), 4232; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18094232 - 24 Apr 2026
Viewed by 257
Abstract
In the original publication [...] Full article
20 pages, 4744 KB  
Article
A Life Cycle Costing Approach of Potential Carbon Capture and Storage at the Hunter Unit 3 Coal-Fired Power Plant, Utah
by Kevin McCormack, Ethan Gallup, Palash Panja, Eric Edelman, Pratt Rogers, Kody Powell and Brian McPherson
Energies 2026, 19(9), 2010; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19092010 - 22 Apr 2026
Viewed by 347
Abstract
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is widely regarded as a viable pathway for reducing greenhouse gas emissions; however, large-scale deployment remains constrained by project economics and policy uncertainty. This study presents a life cycle costing assessment of a proposed CCS retrofit at the [...] Read more.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is widely regarded as a viable pathway for reducing greenhouse gas emissions; however, large-scale deployment remains constrained by project economics and policy uncertainty. This study presents a life cycle costing assessment of a proposed CCS retrofit at the Hunter Unit 3 coal-fired power plant in Emery County, Utah, encompassing carbon capture, transport, and subsurface storage. Results indicate that the project appears economically favorable under the assumptions of this screening-level analysis and under current policy conditions, with an estimated break-even time of approximately five years. The analysis identifies a large upfront capital investment exceeding $600,000,000, offset by planned revenue from federal tax credits totaling several billion dollars over the project lifetime. Sensitivity analyses show that project economics are dominated by capture costs and annual mass of CO2 sequestration rates, while storage and transport costs play secondary roles. A synthetic policy-perturbation analysis of the $85/ton tax credit further demonstrates that policy volatility materially increases uncertainty in investment returns. These results highlight both the economic potential of CCS retrofits at existing power plants and the critical role of stable long-term policy in enabling investment. Full article
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23 pages, 877 KB  
Article
Statistical Analysis of NO2 Emissions from Eskom’s Majuba Coal-Fired Power Station in Mpumalanga, South Africa
by Mpendulo Wiseman Mamba and Delson Chikobvu
Atmosphere 2026, 17(4), 415; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17040415 - 19 Apr 2026
Viewed by 329
Abstract
Gaseous emissions from coal combustion during electricity generation continue to be a challenge in South Africa. To meet the regulatory limits, it is crucial to understand the statistical distribution of such emissions from the power generating plants. The current paper characterises the nitrogen [...] Read more.
Gaseous emissions from coal combustion during electricity generation continue to be a challenge in South Africa. To meet the regulatory limits, it is crucial to understand the statistical distribution of such emissions from the power generating plants. The current paper characterises the nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions from Eskom’s Majuba coal-fired power station by making use of the quantile–quantile (QQ) plots and derivative plots of three statistical parent distributions, namely, the Weibull, Lognormal, and Pareto distributions. These distributions are fitted and compared according to their tail heaviness as they cater for data that may have tails lighter or heavier than that of the Exponential distribution. Of the three distributions evaluated here, the Lognormal gave the best fit for the full body of the data according to the QQ and derivative plots, and the goodness-of-fit tools (bootstrap Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS), Anderson–Darling (AD), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz’s Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and the BIC-corrected Vuong test for non-nested distributions). The Lognormal distribution also gave the best fit for the overall upper tail, while at the very top six largest NO2 emission observations in the upper tail, a Pareto-type tail was observed. The practical implication of a heavy tail like the Pareto is that it models more frequent larger sized NO2 emissions compared to lighter tails like the Weibull and Lognormal tails. The methods used in this study give a framework on how emissions of NO2 from a coal-fired power station can be modelled using statistical parent distributions whilst also taking into account the distribution of the data in the tails which is mostly ignored when fitting statistical parent distributions. Understanding the distribution of the upper tail is very important since higher and rare emissions are of the most concern and are dangerous to human health and the environment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling and Monitoring of Air Quality: From Data to Predictions)
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