Search Results (10)

The ECMWF‘s ensemble (ECEPS) predictions are documented for the lifecycles of six tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed during a long-lasting Rossby wave breaking event in the western North Pacific. All six TC tracks started between 20° N and 25° N, and between 136° E and 160° E. All five typhoons recurved north of 30° N, and the three typhoons that did not make landfall had long tracks to 50° N and beyond. The ECEPS weighted mean vector motion track forecasts from pre-formation onward are quite accurate, with track forecast spreads that are primarily related to initial position uncertainties. The ECEPS intensity forecasts have been validated relative to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Working Best Track (WBT) intensities (when available). The key results for Tokage (11 W) were the ECEPS forecasts of the intensification to a peak intensity of 100 kt, and then a rapid decay as a cold-core cyclone. For Hinnamnor (12 W), the key result was the ECEPS intensity forecasts during the post-extratropical transition period when Hinnamnor was rapidly translating poleward through the Japan Sea. For Muifa (14 W), the key advantage of the ECEPS was that intensity guidance was provided for longer periods than the JTWC 5-day forecast. The most intriguing aspect of the ECEPS forecasts for post-Merbok (15 W) was its prediction of a transition to an intense, warm-core vortex after Merbok had moved beyond 50° N and was headed toward the Aleutian Islands. The most disappointing result was that the ECEPS over-predicted the slow intensification rate of Nanmadol (16 W) until the time-to-typhoon (T2TY), but then failed to predict the large rapid intensification (RI) following the T2TY. The tentative conclusion is that the ECEPS model‘s physics are not capable of predicting the inner-core spin-up rates when a small inner-core vortex is undergoing large RI. Full article

Using the ERA5 reanalysis data and trajectory analysis provided by Hysplit4, a comparative analysis was conducted on the primary pathways of air particles and the dominant weather systems in two distinct cases of equatorward and poleward cyclonic Rossby wave-breaking (CWB) events. Subsequently, the characteristics of mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in both CWBs were estimated and discussed. CWB events are frequently associated with the development of an upper front in subtropics and a ridge or blocking in mid-latitudes, leading to a tropopause anomaly characterized by a downward depression in the subtropics and an upward bulge in the mid-latitudes. High potential vorticity (PV) particles exhibit negligible vertical motion and are instead controlled by the circulation of the ridge or blocking, leading to a significant poleward transport. In contrast, low PV particles display noticeable vertical motion, with approximately one fourth of them ascending on the north side of the upper-level jet exit region. After CWB occurrence, approximately 25% of low PV particles moved southward and sank below 500 hPa with the downstream trough’s cold air. Most high PV particles remained in the stratosphere, and low PV particles predominantly remained in the troposphere. Only a small proportion (2% to 6%) of particles underwent stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE). In equatorward CWB, STE manifested as transport from stratosphere to troposphere, occurring mainly in 24–48 h post breaking with a maximum mass transport of approximately 1.54 × 10¹³ kg. In poleward CWB, STE involved transport from troposphere to stratosphere, occurring mainly within 0–18 h post breaking with a maximum mass transport of approximately 1.48 × 10¹³ kg. Full article

In summertime, eastern China experiences severe ozone pollution. Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT), as the primary natural source of tropospheric ozone, may have a non-negligible contribution to ground-level ozone. Rossby wave breaking (RWB) is a leading mechanism that triggers STT, which can be categorized as anticyclonic wave breakings (AWBs) and cyclonic wave breakings (CWBs). This study uses an objective method to diagnose AWBs and CWBs and to investigate their influence on the surface ozone in eastern China using ground-based ozone observations, satellite ozone data from AIRS, a stratospheric ozone tracer simulated by CAM-chem, and meteorological fields from MERRA-2. The results indicate that AWBs occur mainly and frequently over northeast China, while CWBs occur mostly over the northern Sea of Japan. STTs triggered by AWBs mainly have sinking areas over the North China Plain, increasing the ground-level ozone concentrations by 5–10 ppbv in eastern China. The downwelling zones in the CWBs extend from Mongolia to the East China Sea, potentially causing an elevation of 5–10 ppbv of ozone in both central and eastern China. This study gives an overview of the impacts of AWBs and CWBs on surface ozone in eastern China and helps to improve our understanding of summertime ozone pollution in eastern China. Full article

In 2019, the southern region of Eastern Siberia (located between 45° N and 60° N) experienced heavy floods, while the northern region (between 60° N and 75° N) saw intense forest fires that lasted for almost the entire summer, from 25 June to 12 August. To investigate the causes of these natural disasters, we analyzed the large-scale features of atmospheric circulation, specifically the Rossby wave breaking and atmospheric blocking events. In the summer of 2019, two types of Rossby wave breaking were observed: a cyclonic type, with a wave breaking over Siberia from the east (110° E–115° E), and an anticyclonic type, with a wave breaking over Siberia from the west (75° E–90° E). The sequence of the Rossby wave breaking and extreme weather events in summer, 2019 are as follows: 24–26 June (cyclonic type, extreme precipitation, flood), 28–29 June and 1–2 July (anticyclonic type, forest fires), 14–17 July (both types of breaking, forest fires), 25–28 July (cyclonic type, extreme precipitation, flood), 2 and 7 August (anticyclonic type, forest fires). Rossby wave breaking occurred three times, resulting in the formation and maintenance of atmospheric blocking over Eastern Siberia: 26 June–3 July, 12–21 July and 4–10 August. In general, the scenario of the summer events was as follows: cyclonic Rossby wave breaking over the southern part of Eastern Siberia (45° N–60° N) caused extreme precipitation (floods) and led to low gradients of potential vorticity and potential temperature in the west and east of Lake Baikal. The increased wave activity flux from the Europe–North Atlantic sector caused the anticyclonic-type Rossby wave breaking to occur west of the area of a low potential vorticity gradient and north of 60° N. This, in turn, contributed to the maintenance of blocking anticyclones in the north of Eastern Siberia, which led to the intensification and expansion of the area of forest fires. These events were preceded by an increase in the amplitude of the quasi-stationary wave structure over the North Atlantic and Europe during the first half of June. Full article

Based on reanalysis data, satellite ozone concentration observations, and a Lagrangian trajectory simulation, a Rossby wave breaking (RWB) event and its effect on stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) over the Tibetan Plateau in mid-March 2006 were investigated. Results showed that the increased eddy heat flux from the subtropical westerly jet magnified the amplitude of the Rossby wave, which contributed to the occurrence of the cyclonic RWB event. The quasi-horizontal cyclonic motion of the isentropic potential vorticity in the RWB cut the tropical tropospheric air mass into the extratropical stratosphere, completing the stratosphere–troposphere mass exchange. Meanwhile, the tropopause folding zone extended polewards by 10° of latitude and the tropospheric air mass escaped from the tropical tropopause layer into the extratropical stratosphere through the tropopause folding zone. The particles in the troposphere-to-stratosphere transport (TST) pathway migrated both eastwards and polewards in the horizontal direction, and shifted upwards in the vertical direction. Eventually, the mass of the TST particles reached about 3.8 × 10¹⁴ kg, accounting for 42.2% of the particles near the tropopause in the RWB event. The rest of the particles remained in the troposphere, where they moved eastwards rapidly along the westerly jet and slid down in the downstream upper frontal zone. Full article

The deadly shift of the Yarnell Hill, Arizona wildfire was associated with an environment exhibiting gusty wind patterns in response to organized convectively driven circulations. The observed synoptic (>2500 km) through meso-β (approximately 100 km) scale precursor environment that organized a mid-upper tropospheric cross-mountain mesoscale jet streak circulation and upslope thermally direct flow was examined. Numerical simulations and observations indicated that both circulations played a key role in focusing the upper-level divergence, ascent, downdraft potential, vertical wind shear favoring mobile convective gust fronts, and a microburst. This sequence was initiated at the synoptic scale by a cyclonic Rossby Wave Break (RWB) 72 h prior, followed by an anticyclonic RWB. These RWBs combined to produce a mid-continent baroclinic trough with two short waves ushering in cooler air with the amplifying polar jet. Cool air advection with the second trough and surface heating across the Intermountain West (IW) combined to increase the mesoscale pressure gradient, forcing a mid-upper tropospheric subsynoptic jet around the periphery of the upstream ridge over Southern Utah and Northern New Mexico. Convection was triggered by an unbalanced secondary jetlet circulation within the subsynoptic jet in association with a low-level upslope flow accompanying a mountain plains solenoidal circulation above the Mogollon Rim (MR) and downstream mountains. Full article

Two heavy rainfall events occurring in early 2020 brought flooding, flash flooding, strong winds and tornadoes to the southern Appalachian Mountains. The atmospheric river-influenced events qualified as extreme (top 2.5%) rain events in the archives of two research-grade rain gauge networks located in two different river basins. The earlier event of 5–7 February 2020 was an event of longer duration that caused significant flooding in close proximity to the mountains and had the higher total accumulation observed by the two gauge networks, compared to the later event of 12–13 April 2020. However, its associated downstream flooding response and number of landslides (two) were muted compared to the April event (21). The purpose of this study is to understand differences in the surface response of the two events, primarily by examining the large-scale weather pattern and available space-based observations. Both storms were preceded by anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking events that led to a highly amplified 500 hPa wave during the February storm (a broad continent-wide 500 hPa cyclone during the April storm) in which the accompanying low-level cyclone moved slowly (rapidly). Model analyses and space-based water vapor observations of the two events indicated a deep sub-tropical moisture source during the February storm (converging sub-tropical low-level moisture streams and a dry mid-tropospheric layer during the April storm). Systematic differences of environmental stability were reflected in differences of storm-averaged rain rate intensity, with large-scale atmospheric structures favoring higher intensities during the April storm. Space-based observations of post-storm surface conditions suggested antecedent soil moisture conditioned by rainfall of the February event made the widespread triggering of landslides possible during the higher intensity rains of the April event, a period exceeding the 30 day lag explored in Miller et al. (2019). Full article

The variability of stable oxygen isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O) from Greenland ice cores is commonly linked to changes in local climate and associated teleconnection patterns. In this respect, in this study we investigate ice core δ¹⁸O variability from a synoptic scale perspective to assess the potential of such records as proxies for extreme climate variability and associated weather patterns. We show that positive (negative) δ¹⁸O anomalies in three southern and central Greenland ice cores are associated with relatively high (low) Rossby Wave Breaking (RWB) activity in the North Atlantic region. Both cyclonic and anticyclonic RWB patterns associated with high δ¹⁸O show filaments of strong moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean towards Greenland. During such events, warm and wet conditions are recorded over southern, western and central part of Greenland. In the same time the cyclonic and anticyclonic RWB patterns show enhanced southward advection of cold polar air masses on their eastern side, leading to extreme cold conditions over Europe. The association between high δ¹⁸O winters in Greenland ice cores and extremely cold winters over Europe is partly explained by the modulation of the RWB frequency by the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature forcing, as shown in recent modeling studies. We argue that δ¹⁸O from Greenland ice cores can be used as a proxy for RWB activity in the Atlantic European region and associated extreme weather and climate anomalies. Full article

The Selenga is one of the crucial transboundary rivers of the semi-arid Northern Eurasia belt. The Selenga basin is located in Mongolia and Russia, and it is 83.4% of the Lake Baikal basin. Atmospheric precipitation is the primary source of the river supply; most of its amount falls like rain from June to August (about 70% of the annual). In the present paper, the relationship between the heaviest rains (HR) around the Selenga River basin in July (above 90th percentile) and Rossby wave breaking (both cyclonic and anticyclonic type, AWB and CWB) was examined. The total number of HR events from 1982 to 2019 was 83. For each event, the synoptic analysis and automatic detection of breaking based on potential vorticity from 2 to 9 PVU on the 350 K were utilized. In most cases (85%) of HR, events were accompanied to the RWB. It was revealed that waves propagating along the subtropical jet were the most important. Precipitation was observed both for the period of amplitude growth and period of waves breaking (CWB or AWB). CWBs on the subtropical jet stream that occurred east to Lake Baikal were observed in most HR events. Full article

The November 2018 Camp Fire quickly became the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history. In this case study, we investigate the contribution of meteorological conditions and, in particular, a downslope windstorm that occurred during the 2018 Camp Fire. Dry seasonal conditions prior to ignition led to 100-h fuel moisture contents in the region to reach record low levels. Meteorological observations were primarily made from a number of remote automatic weather stations and a mobile scanning Doppler lidar deployed to the fire on 8 November 2018. Additionally, gridded operational forecast models and high-resolution meteorological simulations were synthesized in the analysis to provide context for the meteorological observations and structure of the downslope windstorm. Results show that this event was associated with mid-level anti-cyclonic Rossby wave breaking likely caused by cold air advection aloft. An inverted surface trough over central California created a pressure gradient which likely enhanced the downslope winds. Sustained surface winds between 3–6 m s⁻¹ were observed with gusts of over 25 m s⁻¹ while winds above the surface were associated with an intermittent low-level jet. The meteorological conditions of the event were well forecasted, and the severity of the fire was not surprising given the fire danger potential for that day. However, use of surface networks alone do not provide adequate observations for understanding downslope windstorm events and their impact on fire spread. Fire management operations may benefit from the use of operational wind profilers to better understand the evolution of downslope windstorms and other fire weather phenomena that are poorly understood and observed. Full article