Search Results (378)

This study investigates the impact of key economic variables on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Ecuador within the broader context of sustainable development. Annual data from 1990 to 2022 are analyzed using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in first logarithmic differences, estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). The model examines both short- and long-term relationships between CO₂ emissions and three core macroeconomic indicators: gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), GDP per capita, and oil consumption. Descriptive analysis reveals substantial variation in investment and fossil fuel use across the study period. Empirical findings indicate that oil consumption has a positive and statistically significant effect on emissions, while GFCF exhibits a significant negative association in the current period, suggesting the role of cleaner or more efficient investment. Lagged GDP per capita shows a negative effect on emissions, partially supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Although renewable energy is discussed in the conceptual framework, it is not included in the current empirical specification—a limitation that will be addressed in future model extensions. The results provide empirical support for directing investments toward low-carbon sectors and accelerating the energy transition, particularly in transport and industry. Full article

Under the “dual carbon” strategy, clarifying the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions and revealing the differences in green transition pathways among different urban tiers within the metropolitan area is of great significance for promoting regional low-carbon development. Based on panel data of prefecture-level cities in 27 national metropolitan areas in China from 2000 to 2020, this paper employs a two-way fixed effects model and a mediation effect model to test the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and to evaluate the mediating role of industrial structure advancement. The results show that, at the national level, carbon emissions and economic growth exhibit a significant inverted U-shaped relationship, but the EKC becomes invalid in non-core cities after dividing the sample into core and non-core cities. Industrial structure advancement significantly curbs carbon emissions in core cities, while its effect is insignificant in non-core cities, indicating insufficient structural transformation capacity. The findings suggest that core cities have initially formed a “structure-embedded” emission reduction pathway, whereas non-core cities face a dual challenge of growth and emission reduction. In terms of policy, excessive reliance on the “automatic decoupling of growth” should be avoided, and a differentiated governance system centred on structural transformation capacity should be established, with particular attention to enhancing the green transition capacity of non-core cities so as to promote regionally equitable and coordinated low-carbon development. Full article

Exploring the relationship between economic development and environmental protection holds substantial theoretical value for the sustainable progress of minority regions. This paper initially analyzes the overarching mechanisms governing economic growth and climate change challenges in industrial decarbonization toward carbon neutrality. Subsequently, it conducts an empirical analysis utilizing historical economic and environmental data from five provinces to investigate the trajectory of economic development and shifts in environmental quality. The objective of this paper is to flatten the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in northwest minority areas, ensuring the continuous enhancement of environmental quality and green transformation in tandem with economic growth, thereby forging a low-pollution pathway for sustainable development. It is observed that an EKC characteristic exists between the economy and the environment in these regions, evolving from discoordination to primary coordination. The environment and economic development in ethnic minority areas of China are progressing slowly, and there is an urgent need for sustainable development reforms. The environment and economic development in ethnic minority areas of China from 2003 to 2022 are progressing slowly, and there is an urgent need for sustainable development reforms. During the economic development process, minimizing environmental pollution should be a fundamental prerequisite, with a focus on industrial ecological advancement, intensifying governmental environmental protection measures, and boosting green technological innovation to strive for a flattening of the EKC and advance a trajectory toward sustainable development. Full article

This study focuses on the impact of China’s digital economy on sustainable modernization from 2011 to 2021, using provincial panel data for empirical analysis. By applying threshold and mediation models, we find that the digital economy promotes modernization through industrial upgrading (with a mediating effect of 38%) and trade openness (coefficient = 0.234). The research reveals “U-shaped” nonlinear threshold effects at specific levels of digital development (2.218), market efficiency (9.212), and technological progress (12.224). Eastern provinces benefit significantly (coefficient ranging from 0.12 to 0.15 ***), while western regions initially experience some inhibition (coefficient = −0.08 *). Industrial digitalization (coefficient = 0.13 ***) and innovation ecosystems (coefficient = 0.09 ***) play crucial roles in driving eco-efficiency and equity, in line with Sustainable Development Goals 9 and 13. Meanwhile, the impacts of infrastructure (coefficient = 0.07) and industrialization (coefficient = 0.085) are delayed. Economic modernization improves (coefficient = 0.37 ***), yet social modernization declines (coefficient = −0.12 *). This study not only enriches economic theory but also extends the environmental Kuznets curve to the digital economy domain. We propose tiered policy recommendations, including the construction of green digital infrastructure, carbon pricing, and rural digital transformation, which are applicable to China and offer valuable references for emerging economies aiming to achieve inclusive low-carbon growth in the digital era. Future research could further explore the differentiated mechanisms of various digital technologies in the modernization process across different regions and how to optimize policy combinations to better balance digital innovation with sustainable development goals. Full article

The depletion of global fish stocks poses a major challenge to sustainable development, particularly in economies where marine resources are critical to livelihoods and food security. In this study, the relationship between economic development and the sustainability of fish stocks is examined using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). We use panel data from 32 economies between 2002 and 2020 and analyze the fish stock status indicator (EPI_FSS) from the Environmental Performance Index, which captures the proportion of national catches from overfished or collapsed stocks. Using a dynamic panel approach and the generalized method of moments (GMM), we investigate how the human development index (HDI) and other socio-economic factors influence changes in the state of fish stocks. Our results show a statistically significant inverted-U-shaped (∩-shaped) relationship between the HDI and the state of fish stocks, suggesting that the deterioration of fish stocks increases at lower levels of development, but improves beyond a certain threshold. In addition, higher levels of foreign direct investment (FDI), education, and research and development (R&D) spending are associated with better outcomes for fish stocks. These results suggest that while early economic growth may put pressure on marine resources, sustained investment in human capital, innovation, and global integration is critical to promoting long-term marine sustainability. Full article

The relationship between economic progress and environmental quality remains a central focus in global sustainability discourse. This study examines the link between per capita economic growth and CO₂ emissions across 128 countries from 1996 to 2022, controlling for energy consumption, trade volume, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. It also evaluates the role of governance quality—measured by regulatory quality and its volatility—while considering the globalization index as a confounding factor influencing CO₂ emissions. We test the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which suggests that emissions initially rise with income but decline after reaching a certain economic threshold. Our findings confirm the global presence of the EKC. The analysis further shows that trade openness, governance, and globalization significantly influence FDI inflows, with FDI, in turn, reinforcing institutional quality through improved governance and globalization indicators. However, in countries with weaker governance and regulatory frameworks, FDI tends to promote pollution-intensive industrial growth, lending support to aspects of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH). We find a significant departure in EKC explained by post-COVID governance and globalization compromises, which induced the environment towards the PHH phenomenon. These results highlight the need for context-specific policy measures that align economic development with environmental constraints. Full article

As a pivotal economic province in China, Jiangsu’s efforts in civil building energy conservation are critical to achieving the national “dual carbon” goals. This paper proposes a hybrid model that integrates wavelet transform, support vector regression (SVR), and extreme learning machine (ELM) to predict the civil building energy consumption of Jiangsu Province. Based on data from statistical yearbooks, the historical energy consumption of civil buildings is calculated. Through a grey relational analysis (GRA), the key factors influencing the civil building energy consumption are identified. The wavelet transform technique is then applied to decompose the energy consumption data into a trend component and a fluctuation component. The SVR model predicts the trend component, while the ELM model captures the fluctuation patterns. The final prediction results are generated by combining these two predictions. The results demonstrate that the hybrid model achieves superior performance with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of merely 1.37%, outperforming both individual prediction methods and alternative hybrid approaches. Furthermore, we develop three prospective scenarios to analyze civil building energy consumption trends from 2023 to 2030. The analysis reveals that the observed patterns align with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). These findings provide valuable insights for provincial governments in future policy-making and energy planning. Full article

The rapid expansion of plastic waste trade has intensified environmental pressures, accelerating ecosystem degradation and climate change. We examine the long-term impacts of plastic waste imports and domestic waste production on ecological footprints and greenhouse gas emissions across 20 countries representing 70% of global plastic waste trade and 45% of world GDP. Under the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, we explore nonlinear interactions among economic growth, urbanization, and sustainability goals. Using a panel simultaneous equations approach, we apply Pedroni, Kao, and Westerlund cointegration tests and Fully Modified and Dynamic OLS estimators to address endogeneity and heterogeneity. Robustness checks include alternative environmental indicators and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test. Results demonstrate a stable long-run equilibrium: plastic waste imports substantially increase ecological footprints and emissions, while progress on sustainable development goals mitigates some damage. The negative GDP squared coefficient supports the EKC hypothesis, indicating that environmental impacts rise initially with growth but decline once income exceeds a threshold. These findings highlight the need for stronger international regulations, enhanced waste management infrastructures, and circular economy strategies. Focused investment in sustainable technologies and global cooperation is essential to lower environmental costs of plastic waste trade. Full article

This study investigates the impacts of financial inclusion, development, and technological innovation on ESG readiness across low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries from 2004 to 2020. Grounded in an augmented environmental Kuznets curve framework, financial intermediation, and financial literacy theories, the analysis employs a panel data approach. Results from panel and quantile regressions reveal that financial inclusion and financial development positively influence ESG readiness, with stronger effects in less financially developed countries. However, in upper-middle-income countries, excessive credit may increase energy-intensive consumption, moderating sustainability gains. Financial inclusion negatively affects ESG readiness at lower quantiles in low-innovation contexts but enhances it at higher quantiles in high-innovation settings. Financial development consistently supports ESG readiness, which is amplified by technological innovation. Effects are stronger in less financially developed countries, moderated by energy-intensive consumption in upper-middle-income economies. The findings underscore the critical role of technological infrastructure in maximising the sustainability benefits of financial systems, advocating for technology-supported financial inclusion and green financing. This study enriches the sustainable development literature and informs policies for achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Full article

The United Arab Emirates has become increasingly concerned about carbon dioxide emissions due to their impact on climate change and the environment, as it is one of the top ten world oil producers. This reflects its recognition of the need for sustainable development. Therefore, this research aims to study the dynamic impact of economic growth, urbanization, energy consumption, and economic openness on CO₂ emissions, during the period 1975–2022. To capture these effects, a novel dynamic ARDL is employed to separate the impact of each variable separately. The results indicate that the effect of GDP per capita on carbon emissions is negative, as a 1% increase in economic growth leads to a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions by 0.6%. Moreover, the findings confirm that the UAE economy does not apply to the Kuznets curve in developing countries. Furthermore, the impact of energy consumption, urbanization, and trade openness is positive on CO₂ emissions, as a 1% increase in each raises CO₂ by 0.17%, 11.6%, and 1.2%, respectively. These findings are important for decision makers in the environmental field to make decisions to reduce carbon emissions by altering the impact of economic variables and spread awareness towards reducing carbon emissions. Full article

In this study, the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions for the period 1968–2022 in Turkey was evaluated within the framework of the EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) hypothesis. In addition, the impacts of renewable energy consumption and agricultural value added on carbon emissions were analyzed using the ARDL bounds testing approach. The validity of the results was also tested using the FMOLS and DOLS methods. The findings confirmed the existence of a cointegration relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income, renewable energy consumption, and agricultural value added. Long-term analyses indicate that renewable energy consumption reduces carbon emissions, whereas growth in agricultural value added leads to an increase in emissions. In addition, it has been determined that the EKC hypothesis is valid in both the long and short terms and that increases in per capita income raise emissions up to a certain threshold and have a mitigating effect when this threshold is exceeded. The results of the short-term analysis showed that the effects of renewable energy consumption vary across periods, and that agricultural value added increases emissions in the short term. This study provides empirical evidence for Turkey by incorporating sectoral variables within the EKC framework and offers meaningful insights for policymakers regarding the environmental impacts of agricultural value added and renewable energy use in the context of a developing country. Accordingly, fiscal policy instruments such as green taxation, carbon credit trading mechanisms, and financial and agricultural subsidies should be more effectively utilized in Turkey to support structural transformation in agriculture and promote the use of clean energy, in line with the findings that suggest the need for targeted agricultural and energy policies aligned with Turkey’s SDG commitments. Full article

This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric impacts of international trade on consumption-based carbon emissions (CBEs) in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States of America (USA) from 1990 to 2018. The analysis uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) methodologies to capture short- and long-run trade emissions dynamics, with economic growth, oil prices, financial development and industry value addition as control variables. The findings reveal that exports reduce CBEs, while imports increase them, across both economies in the long and short run. The asymmetric analysis highlights that a fall in exports increases CBEs in the USA but reduces them in the PRC due to differences in supply chain flexibility. The PRC demonstrates larger coefficients for trade variables, reflecting its reliance on energy-intensive imports and rapid trade growth. The error correction term shows that the PRC takes 2.64 times longer than the USA to return to equilibrium after short-run shocks, reflecting systemic rigidity. These findings challenge the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, showing that economic growth intensifies CBEs. Robustness checks confirm the results, highlighting the need for tailored policies, including carbon border adjustments, renewable energy integration and CBE-based accounting frameworks. Full article

The readiness of businesses to address global climate change is pivotal for achieving sustainable development. However, the dynamics of business development remain underexplored, thereby limiting the depth and scope of research in this area. To this aim, the study examines the relationship between CO₂ emissions and new business density (NBD) in the top 14 countries with the highest NBD (Hong Kong, Cyprus, New Zealand, Estonia, Malta, United Kingdom, Australia, Botswana, Iceland, Latvia, Mauritius, Norway, Sweden, and Georgia) from 2006 to 2020, within the framework of Schumpeter’s theory and the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, incorporating control variables such as renewable energy consumption (REC) and population size. To estimate the relationships between variables, we employ the novel Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) approach. The findings suggest that higher NBD is associated with increased CO₂ emissions. The results support the EKC hypothesis, positing an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation, and highlight the mitigating effects of REC and population growth on CO₂ emissions. These findings emphasize the need for countries to align labor legislation with sustainable development objectives and to promote strategies grounded in environmental principles, green economic practices, and eco-friendly technologies. Full article

This study investigates the environmental effects of agricultural trade, renewable energy use, and economic growth in a panel of 14 selected countries for the period 2000–2021. Per capita CO₂ emissions are modeled as the dependent variable using a second-generation panel data method, the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator, which accounts for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. The analysis reveals that the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption significantly reduces carbon emissions, emphasizing the role of green energy policies in environmental improvement. In contrast, economic growth is found to increase emissions, indicating the validity of only the initial phase of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Additionally, agricultural imports—and in certain cases, exports—exert upward pressure on emissions, likely due to logistics and production-related externalities embedded in the trade process. Group-specific results highlight distinct dynamics across countries: while renewable energy adoption plays a stronger role in emission mitigation in developing economies, trade composition and production technology drive environmental outcomes in developed ones. The findings underscore the need to redesign trade and energy strategies with explicit consideration of environmental externalities to align with long-term sustainability objectives. Full article

Understanding the historical peak situation and the rules for CO₂ emissions from buildings helps to formulate reasonable building mitigation strategies, accelerating the achievement of the Chinese government’s carbon peak goal. As developed regions, cities in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Great Bay Area (GBA) provide valuable reference cases. This study quantified the historical building CO₂ emissions of GBA cities and analyzed the contribution of driving factors using the Kaya identity and logarithmic mean Divisia index. Furthermore, we assessed the historical peak situation using the MK trend test method and discussed the reasons behind the inter-city difference in the peak situation shown by the environmental Kuznets curve. The results indicate that the building-related CO₂ emissions of the GBA will slowly increase to 96.90 Mt CO₂ by 2020 and that P&C buildings accounted for a larger proportion of emissions. Emission factors and population made the largest positive and negative contributions, respectively, to this total. At the city level, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong ranked as the top three sources of building CO₂ emissions. Hong Kong peaked, Dongguan and Macao plateaued, and other cities maintained either slow or quick growth. CO₂ emissions unit area, per capita building CO₂ emissions, and building CO₂ emissions reached a peak in that order. This study provides a valuable reference for formulating a city-level path showing building CO₂ emissions peaks. Full article