Search Results (207)

This study explores the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of deforestation and forest degradation along the politically sensitive Iraq–Turkey border within the Duhok Governorate between 2015 and 2024. Utilizing paired remote sensing (RS) and high-end machine learning (ML) methods, forest dynamics were simulated from Sentinel-2 imagery, climate datasets, and topographic variables. Seven ML models were evaluated, and XGBoost consistently outperformed the others, yielding predictive accuracies (R²) of 0.903 (2015), 0.910 (2019), and 0.950 (2024), and a low RMSE (≤0.035). Model interpretability was further improved through the application of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to estimate variable contributions and a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to elucidate complex nonlinear interactions. The results showed distinct temporal shifts; climatic factors (rainfall and temperature) primarily influenced vegetation cover in 2015, whereas anthropogenic drivers such as forest fires (NBR), road construction (RI), and soil exposure (BSI) intensified by 2024, accounting for up to 12% of the observed forest loss. Forest canopy cover decreased significantly, from approximately 630 km² in 2015 to 577 km² in 2024, mainly due to illegal deforestation, road network expansion, and conflict-induced fires. This study highlights the effectiveness of an ML-driven RS analysis for geoinformation needs in geopolitically complex and data-scarce regions. These findings underscore the urgent need for robust, evidence-based conservation policies and demonstrate the utility of interpretable ML techniques for forest management policy optimization, providing a reproducible methodological blueprint for future ecological assessment. Full article

This study aims to explore how the macro-geopolitical economic cooperation policy is connected with student mobility in higher education at the micro level. Since the internationalization of higher education and student mobility, which mainly occurred in universities at the institutional level, the relationship between macro governmental goals and economic strategies tends to be less emphasized. Also, the factors influencing student mobility focus more on their characteristics. Therefore, this study investigates how student mobility in higher education has been changed according to the New Southern Policy (NSP) in South Korea, especially focusing on the policy targeted in ASEAN regions. Also, we describe trends of student mobility according to different characteristics of a university under the policy. The findings of this study indicate that when formulating and implementing policy, it is imperative to acknowledge the limitations of a macro-level, strategic approach, even when considering a multitude of factors. Furthermore, this study suggests that macroeconomic policies may exert unanticipated impacts on areas that have not been explicitly addressed. Full article

Purpose: Our study investigates the combined effects of financial technologies (fintech) and the digital economy on sustainable development, considering geopolitical risks as a moderating factor. Origin: While sustainable development is a global imperative, the integrated roles of digital transformation and fintech remain insufficiently explored. Our research addresses this gap by analyzing their impacts on socioeconomic advancement and environmental sustainability across diverse contexts. Methodology: Employing panel data from 30 developed and developing countries between 1990 and 2023, we assess sustainable development using the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) and the Human Development Index (HDI). Independent variables include proxies for the digital economy (e.g., internet usage, mobile subscriptions, and high-tech exports) and fintech (e.g., digital payments, digital currency, and peer-to-peer lending). The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) is used to evaluate the effect of political instability. We apply generalized least squares (GLS) and fixed-effects estimation (within) to ensure robustness. Findings: Our results indicate that digital transformation and fintech significantly foster socioeconomic development and environmental performance, even amidst geopolitical instability. Key variables such as digital payments and internet access show substantial positive impacts, providing valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance resilience and sustainability. Contributions: Our article offers a comprehensive evaluation of how the digital economy and fintech jointly influence sustainable development under geopolitical risks, providing a nuanced understanding for policymakers and researchers. Full article

This study employs a critical perspective: aiming to provide a subjective and socially constructed view on the impact of corporate governance and the corporate social responsibility (CSR) choices on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in terms of CO₂ emissions in Brazil. This research paper bridges the gap in the literature on the EKC by toeing a qualitative approach to what has been presented using quantitative methods, and offers insights on how the trends shape organisational policies. Furthermore, it enumerates the relationship between CSR, CO₂ choices, and EKC in the Brazilian aviation industry using one particular airline as a case study. It aims to provoke further conversation on decarbonisation. It seeks to show how EKC has been treated and to contextualise the impact of the airline sector’s CSR and corporate governance on EKC. A combination of a content analysis of the narratives of sustainability reports and a semi-structured interview with a sustainability expert from the aviation sector was used in data gathering, while critical discourse analysis (CDA) was employed in demonstrating the ideological and social contexts that shape organisational narratives and decisions in practices and governance structures that are driving CO₂ reduction strategies. The findings not only confirmed the crucial role that corporate governance plays in the implementation and monitoring of CSR practices within the sector but also shows the impact of integrating sustainability goals into corporate strategies. The policies nurtured by CSR are supported by the company’s ESG and Social Responsibility Committees. In the context of the case study, the corporate decision to transit to biofuels is contributing not only to the reduction in CO₂ emissions but is also seen as an economically viable strategy with public policies and regulatory frameworks. This paper further explains the impact of geopolitical factors and the need for international cooperation because the traditional U-shaped EKC is not supported in the context of the Brazilian aviation sector. Finally, this spurs the need for collaboration among various stakeholder companies, policymakers, and nations in the global context for sustainable development to have a lasting impact. Full article

Natural gas consumption in Europe has undergone substantial changes in recent years, driven by geopolitical tensions, economic dynamics, and the continent’s ongoing transition towards cleaner energy sources. Furthermore, as noted in the International Energy Agency’s Gas Market Report 2025, natural gas demand is becoming increasingly sensitive to fluctuations in weather patterns, including cold snaps and heatwaves. These factors make the task of forecasting future annual consumption particularly challenging from a statistical perspective and underscore the importance of accurately quantifying the uncertainty surrounding predictions. In this paper, we propose a simple yet flexible approach to issuing dynamic probabilistic forecasts based on an additive time series model. To capture long-term trends, the model incorporates a deterministic component based on the Guseo–Guidolin innovation diffusion framework. In addition, a stochastic innovation term governed by an ARIMAX process is used to describe year-over-year fluctuations, helping to account for the potential presence of variance nonstationarity over time. The proposed methodology is applied to forecast future annual consumption in six key European countries: Austria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Full article

This article analyses the adaptation strategies adopted by local government units (LGUs) in Poland in response to the energy crisis of 2022–2023. This crisis, caused by geopolitical tensions, rising commodity prices and instability of supply, posed a serious challenge to local authorities. The study used the case study method, and the analysis of data obtained as part of a nationwide survey conducted among 167 local government units, differentiated in terms of the type of commune and the number of inhabitants. The results indicate that the most commonly used measures were investments in renewable energy sources and the modernisation of energy infrastructure. At the same time, nearly half of the surveyed local government units did not have contingency plans in the event of interruptions in energy supply, which reveals significant gaps in crisis management. The article identifies the key factors affecting the effectiveness of the implemented measures and presents recommendations for strengthening the energy resilience of local government units. The study is distinguished by an innovative approach, and the study is one of the first empirical approaches in Poland that combines quantitative data analysis with the case study approach and contributes to the development of local energy policy in conditions of external instability. Full article

The industrial sector’s increasing electricity demand (direct and indirect), driven by the electrification of processes and the production of green hydrogen, poses significant challenges for achieving decarbonisation goals. While switching to renewable electricity and offsetting emissions appears straightforward, the gap between current generation capacities and projected demand remains substantial. This article analyses survey data from the Energy Efficiency Index of German Industry (EEI), revealing that manufacturing companies aim to reduce 22.1% of their 2019 emissions by 2025 and 27.3% by 2030, primarily through on-site measures. However, given the slow pace of renewable capacity expansion and the increasing electrification across sectors, it becomes evident that the envisaged green electricity share of 80% by 2030 will require far more capacity than currently planned. To address this challenge, the article introduces a decarbonisability factor to better assess on-site versus off-site measures, highlighting the need for a strategic sequencing of efficiency and renewable generation. To support decision-makers, the article calls for improved data collection and periodic reassessment to account for changing geopolitical and economic conditions. Full article

The Gobi Wall is a 321 km-long structure made of earth, stone, and wood, located in the Gobi highland desert of Mongolia. It is the least understood section of the medieval wall system that extends from China into Mongolia. This study aims to determine its builders, purpose, and chronology. Additionally, we seek to better understand the ecological implications of constructing such an extensive system of walls, trenches, garrisons, and fortresses in the remote and harsh environment of the Gobi Desert. Our field expedition combined remote sensing, pedestrian surveys, and targeted excavations at key sites. The results indicate that the garrison walls and main long wall were primarily constructed using rammed earth, with wood and stone reinforcements. Excavations of garrisons uncovered evidence of long-term occupation, including artifacts spanning from 2nd c. BCE to 19th c. CE. According to our findings, the main construction and usage phase of the wall and its associated structures occurred throughout the Xi Xia dynasty (1038–1227 CE), a period characterized by advanced frontier defense systems and significant geopolitical shifts. This study challenges the perception of such structures as being purely defensive, revealing the Gobi Wall’s multifunctional role as an imperial tool for demarcating boundaries, managing populations and resources, and consolidating territorial control. Furthermore, our spatial and ecological analysis demonstrates that the distribution of local resources, such as water and wood, was critical in determining the route of the wall and the placement of associated garrisons and forts. Other geographic factors, including the location of mountain passes and the spread of sand dunes, were strategically utilized to enhance the effectiveness of the wall system. The results of this study reshape our understanding of medieval Inner Asian imperial infrastructure and its lasting impact on geopolitical landscapes. By integrating historical and archeological evidence with geographical analysis of the locations of garrisons and fortifications, we underscore the Xi Xia kingdom’s strategic emphasis on regulating trade, securing transportation routes, and monitoring frontier movement. Full article

This paper examines the phenomenon of collaborative consumption among Generation Z in Ukraine, focusing on its significance for sustainable consumption and the factors driving its popularity. In the context of increasing digitalization and environmental challenges, the authors analyze the extent to which young Ukrainians engage in the sharing economy and the motivations behind their choices. Special attention is given to the unique characteristics of Generation Z in Ukraine, who, unlike their Western peers, are marked by a strong sense of patriotism, greater social responsibility, and a desire for economic stability—factors influenced by the country’s challenging geopolitical situation. The study was conducted using an online survey (CAWI) with a sample of 292 respondents in 2024. The results indicate that 54.8% of the respondents show a propensity for collaborative consumption (PCC), with key motivators being convenience (90%), the need for social connections (70%), and environmental awareness (68%). Individuals inclined toward resource sharing tend to exhibit greater openness, loyalty, and innovativeness. However, the lack of significant differences in their broader sustainable consumption behaviors suggests that collaborative consumption is perceived primarily as a practical solution rather than a consciously pro-environmental strategy. These findings have important practical implications—companies should focus on building trust in sharing platforms, offering flexible pricing models, and emphasizing both financial savings and environmental benefits. Meanwhile, policymakers can support the growth of the sharing economy through regulations that foster innovation and educational campaigns promoting sustainable consumer behavior. Full article

This paper examines the impact of various uncertainty channels on stock market returns in Saudi Arabia, with a focus on the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI). It examines factors such as Saudi-specific Geopolitical Risk, Global Oil Price Uncertainty, Climate Policy Uncertainty, and U.S. Monetary Policy Uncertainty. Using monthly data from November 1998 to June 2024 and the Local Projections (LP) methodology, the study examines how these uncertainties impact market returns across various time horizons, taking into account potential structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics. Our findings indicate significant variations in the market’s response to the uncertainty measures across two distinct periods. During the first period, geopolitical risks have a strong positive impact on market returns. Conversely, the second period reveals a reversal, with negative cumulative effects, suggesting a shift in risk–return dynamics. Oil Price Uncertainty consistently exhibits a negative impact in both periods, highlighting the changing nature of oil dependency in the Saudi market. Additionally, Climate Policy Uncertainty is becoming more significant, reflecting increased market sensitivity to global environmental policy changes. Our analysis reveals significant asymmetries in the effects of various uncertainty shocks, with Monetary Policy Uncertainty exhibiting nonlinear effects that peak at intermediate horizons, while commodity-related uncertainties exhibit more persistent impacts. These findings, which remain robust across various tests, offer critical insights for portfolio management, policy formulation, and risk assessment in emerging markets undergoing substantial economic changes. Full article

The Southwest Region (SWR) is one of Nigeria’s six geo-political zones and comprises six distinct states. It holds considerable significance due to its unique geographical features, economic vibrancy, pastoral heritage, and fragile natural ecosystems. These ecosystems are becoming increasingly susceptible to human activities and the adverse impacts of climate change. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in relation to key influencing factors in the SWR from 2001 to 2020. The analytical methods included Sen’s slope estimator, the Mann–Kendall trend test, and the Geographical Detector Model (GDM). The analysis revealed significant spatial variability in vegetation cover, with dense vegetation concentrated in the eastern part of the region and low vegetation coverage overall, reflected by an average NDVI value of 0.45, indicating persistent vegetation stress. Human activities, particularly land use and land cover (LULC) changes, were identified as major drivers of vegetation loss in some states such as Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, and Ondo. Conversely, Osun and Oyo exhibited signs of vegetation recovery, suggesting the potential for restoration. The study found that topographic factors, including slope and elevation, as well as climatic variables like precipitation, influenced vegetation patterns. However, the impact of these factors was secondary to LULC dynamics. The interaction detection analysis further highlighted the cumulative effect of combined anthropogenic and environmental factors on vegetation distribution, with the interaction between LULC and topography being particularly significant. These findings provide essential insights into the biological condition of the SWR and contribute to advancing the understanding of vegetation patterns with critical implications for the sustainable management and conservation of tropical forest ecosystems. Full article

One of the main reasons for migration is the search for a better quality of life. The concept of quality of life is very broad, encompassing economic, social, political, and cultural factors. According to the World Migration Report 2022, 3.6 percent of the world’s population are migrants. This number is growing due to geopolitical reasons. Increasing migration flows affect the growth of the part of the population living in urban areas, that is, urbanisation. The scale of migration is growing along with the search for a better life. In Lithuania, according to the Department of Statistics, as well as throughout the world, the number of people living in cities is constantly growing; for comparison, a 3% growth has been observed over 4 years, in the European Union, according to the World Bank, 1%, and in the world—1%. The term urbanisation also describes social changes that are determined by the concentration of the population. To ensure quality of life, cities face challenges such as ensuring security, integration of migrants into society and the labour market, the functioning of the health and education system, and sustainable development of cities. Despite growing interest, the impact of migrant flows on the quality of life in cities has not been sufficiently studied in the world scientific literature. Most research is focused on the causes of migration, migrant integration, demographic changes, or labour market interactions. However, less attention is paid to how the dynamics of migrant flows affect the quality of life in cities. Comprehensive assessment is lacking. The goal is to assess the link between quality of life and the dynamics of migration flows in urbanised areas. The article, which conducted a systematic and comparative analysis of concepts published in the scientific literature, formed the concept of quality of life in urban areas, identified the factors that determine quality of life, and studied the link between the quality of life in the city and the dynamics of migration flows. This assessment will allow us to combine the factors that determine quality of life in terms of changes in migrant flows into a common system. To achieve this goal, statistical processing, correlation analysis, and CRITIC methods will be applied. Full article

Amidst global economic fluctuations and escalating geopolitical risks, gold futures, as a pivotal safe-haven asset, demonstrate price dynamics that directly impact investor decision-making and risk mitigation effectiveness. Traditional forecasting models face significant limitations in capturing long-term trends, addressing abrupt volatility, and mitigating multi-source noise within complex market environments characterized by nonlinear interactions and extreme events. Current research predominantly focuses on single-model approaches (e.g., ARIMA or standalone neural networks), inadequately addressing the synergistic effects of multimodal market signals (e.g., cross-market index linkages, exchange rate fluctuations, and policy shifts) and lacking the systematic validation of model robustness under extreme events. Furthermore, feature selection often relies on empirical assumptions, failing to uncover non-explicit correlations between market factors and gold futures prices. A review of the global literature reveals three critical gaps: (1) the insufficient integration of temporal dependency and global attention mechanisms, leading to imbalanced predictions of long-term trends and short-term volatility; (2) the neglect of dynamic coupling effects among cross-market risk factors, such as energy ETF-metal market spillovers; and (3) the absence of hybrid architectures tailored for high-frequency noise environments, limiting predictive utility for decision support. This study proposes a three-stage LSTM–Transformer–XGBoost fusion framework. Firstly, XGBoost-based feature importance ranking identifies six key drivers from thirty-six candidate indicators: the NASDAQ Index, S&P 500 closing price, silver futures, USD/CNY exchange rate, China’s 1-year Treasury yield, and Guotai Zhongzheng Coal ETF. Second, a dual-channel deep learning architecture integrates LSTM for long-term temporal memory and Transformer with multi-head self-attention to decode implicit relationships in unstructured signals (e.g., market sentiment and climate policies). Third, rolling-window forecasting is conducted using daily gold futures prices from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (2015–2025). Key innovations include the following: (1) a bidirectional LSTM–Transformer interaction architecture employing cross-attention mechanisms to dynamically couple global market context with local temporal features, surpassing traditional linear combinations; (2) a Dynamic Hierarchical Partition Framework (DHPF) that stratifies data into four dimensions (price trends, volatility, external correlations, and event shocks) to address multi-driver complexity; (3) a dual-loop adaptive mechanism enabling endogenous parameter updates and exogenous environmental perception to minimize prediction error volatility. This research proposes innovative cross-modal fusion frameworks for gold futures forecasting, providing financial institutions with robust quantitative tools to enhance asset allocation optimization and strengthen risk hedging strategies. It also provides an interpretable hybrid framework for derivative pricing intelligence. Future applications could leverage high-frequency data sharing and cross-market risk contagion models to enhance China’s influence in global gold pricing governance. Full article

The relationships between the prices of major energy commodities have been a widely discussed topic in energy market analyses. This study examines whether the substantial changes observed in recent years have influenced the price linkages between coal and natural gas. By comparing selected price indices from European and Asian markets, we assess the evolving interdependencies between these fuels. The results indicate that the most significant changes in price linkages have occurred in European markets. Both VAR and ARDL model-based tests reveal a shift in the direction of causal relationships. Between 2006 and 2011, coal prices significantly influenced natural gas prices, with no strong evidence of reverse causality. However, in the more recent period (2018–2023), the relationship reversed—natural gas prices now have a significant impact on coal prices, while the reverse linkage has weakened. In Asian markets, the changes were less pronounced, particularly for Japanese import gas prices based on lagged average formulas. However, in the most recent period, a notable influence of Indonesian import gas prices on Australian coal prices emerged, mirroring trends observed in Europe. These findings highlight the increasing role of natural gas in shaping energy commodity prices, especially in Europe, where its growing importance in power generation has contributed to this shift. Additionally, the post-2018 period has been marked by significant supply disruptions, particularly in Europe, with geopolitical factors playing a crucial role in amplifying the importance of natural gas prices. Full article

This innovative study focuses on identifying the primary trends in citizens’ decision-making regarding sustainable and healthy water use and the promotion of tap water options. The primary objective of this study was to investigate whether there was a connection between citizen-consumer choices of tap water versus bottled water and their socio-demographic attributes or environmental awareness and consciousness, which both influence the access to and quality of drinking water. The availability, safety and quality of drinking water is a basic human right and an important public health issue. Water plays a crucial role in terms of increasing geo-political and socio-economic importance. Several researchers have examined the multiple elements influencing customers’ opinions about the quality of water and services, finding that a variety of internal and external factors play a role. To accomplish the study goals, a variety of research methodologies were applied to the use case of Kilkis city, Region of Central Macedonia, Greece. Gaining insight was first facilitated via communication with a focus group of local professionals and policy-makers. Then, a social survey of 407 randomly chosen citizens was conducted to collect the data. The key determinants influencing citizens’ drinking water choices were investigated using multivariate data analysis. Specifically, cluster analysis was employed to group customers exhibiting similar water usage patterns, resulting in the identification of two groups: (a) individuals who favored bottled water and (b) individuals who favored tap water with no filtration. The comparison of the distribution of water consumers between these two clusters, via a Chi-Square test with cross tabulation analysis, showed that customers’ drinking water buying habits were not influenced by their socio-demographic traits. On the other hand, the choice of tap water was found to be positively connected to citizens’ increased level of environmental consciousness. The outcomes of this study can help the stakeholders involved to assist in making improvements to customer service programs for encouraging tap water use, as a more sustainable and healthy water option. Moreover, the population could potentially be motivated to adopt updated technologies for recycling water down the line, moving towards sustainable water resource management. Full article