Search Results (20)

Tourist flow prediction plays a crucial role in enhancing the efficiency of scenic area management, optimizing resource allocation, and promoting the sustainable development of the tourism industry. To improve the accuracy and real-time performance of tourist flow prediction, we propose a BP model based on a hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) and ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO), called the GA-ACO-BP model. First, we comprehensively considered multiple key factors related to tourist flow, including historical tourist flow data (such as tourist flow from yesterday, the previous day, and the same period last year), holiday types, climate comfort, and search popularity index on online map platforms. Second, to address the tendency of the BP model to get easily stuck in local optima, we introduce the GA, which has excellent global search capabilities. Finally, to further improve local convergence speed, we further introduce the ACO algorithm. The experimental results based on tourist flow data from the Elephant Trunk Hill Scenic Area in Guilin indicate that the GA-AC*O-BP model achieves optimal values for key tourist flow prediction metrics such as MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and R², compared to commonly used prediction models. These values are 4.09%, 426.34, 258.80, and 0.98795, respectively. Compared to the initial BP neural network, the improved GA-ACO-BP model reduced error metrics such as MAPE, RMSE, and MAE by 1.12%, 244.04, and 122.91, respectively, and increased the R² metric by 1.85%. Full article

Given the persistently high incidence of skin cancer, there is a need for prevention-focused information on the impact of long-term changes in ambient solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) on human personal radiation exposure. The exposure categories of the UV Index linked to protection recommendations show long-term shifts in the frequency of occurrence with regional differences in direction and magnitude. The patterns of change for sites in the humid continental climate differ from those for sites in other climate zones such as the humid temperate or Mediterranean climate. The diversity of the individual exposures of indoor and outdoor workers can be described using probability models for personal erythema-effective UVR dose (UVD). For people who work indoors, the largest share of the total individual annual UVD is due to vacation, whereas for people who work outdoors, it is occupational exposure. The change in ambient UVDs at the residential locations is only partially reflected in the individual UVDs. For eight selected European sites between 38° and 60° northern latitude, the median of the individual annual total UVD (excluding travel) during the period 2009–2019 is 0.2 to 2.0% higher for indoor workers and 0.6 to 3.2% higher for outdoor workers compared to the period 1983–2008. Changes in the choice of an exemplary holiday destination offer both indoor and outdoor workers the potential to compensate for the observed long-term trend at their place of residence and work. Full article

Climate change is a major challenge for the global tourism sector, affecting destinations worldwide. Greece, known for its scenery and abundant cultural history, is particularly vulnerable to these impacts. Tourism is a key driver of Greece’s economy, yet climate change threatens both natural environments and cultural sites. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on different types of Greek tourism (beach, sightseeing, winter tourism in mountainous areas), the widely used Holiday Climate Index (beach and urban versions) alongside three additional climatic indices customized for Greek climatic conditions, namely the Urban Climate Comfort Index, the Beach Utility Index, and the Mountainous Winter Climate Index were utilized for top tourist destinations of Greece. The results indicate that urban tourism may face challenges during peak summer months due to rising temperatures, but the shoulder seasons (April–May and September–October) will offer improved conditions, potentially extending the tourist season. For beach tourism, favorable conditions are expected to increase from April to October, with significant gains in June and September. Winter tourism in mountainous areas, especially snow-dependent activities like skiing, is at risk due to the declining snow availability. Overall, the study highlights both the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change for Greece’s tourism sector. It emphasizes the importance of adaptation strategies, including infrastructural improvements and promoting alternative activities, to minimize negative impacts and enhance the future attractiveness of Greek tourism. Full article

As one of the globally significant agricultural cultural heritages, Longji Terraced Fields in Longsheng, Guangxi, China, attract numerous tourists. This study aims to describe the weather phenomena and climate change characteristics of Longji Terraced Fields in recent years to reveal their impact on the tourism economy. Utilizing meteorological station data and considering the actual situation in Longsheng, Guilin, the existing models for evaluating tourism climate comfort are improved. The tourism climate comfort of Longji Terraced Fields from 2002 to 2022 is discussed. The results show that the improved model can better reflect the local situation. The results show that the current Holiday Climate Index and Modified Climate Index for Tourism are not suitable for evaluating the Longji Terraces. Adjustments were made to these indices to account for the high annual precipitation and relative humidity of Longsheng. Combining extensive questionnaire surveys, it was found that the improved evaluation model better reflects tourists’ perceptions of climate comfort. Analysis indicates that when the modified model value is above 70, tourist satisfaction exceeds 80%. The most comfortable tourism periods for the Longji Terraces are August, September, and October, while the least comfortable periods are January, February, and March. This study helps to understand the seasonal variations in tourism climate comfort at Longji Terraced Fields and provides a scientific basis for local tourism industry responses to climate change, thereby increasing tourism revenue. Full article

The impacts of climate change and the extent of their consequences exhibit regional variability. The negative effects of climate change on the tourism industry require a comprehensive examination of the vulnerabilities of tourism–dependent countries. Considering that the tourism sector is an important source of income for these countries, it is imperative to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change. Its effects may lead to changes in the location and popularity of tourist destinations and the timing of the tourism season. If popular coastal destinations cannot respond effectively to the impacts of climate change, alternative tourism destinations need to be explored to reduce financial losses. This study aims to assess the potential of the Black Sea coasts as an alternative tourism destination. The evaluation was conducted using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI), a prominent indicator for determining human comfort. The research showed that Türkiye’s Black Sea coast may have the necessary comfort level for beach tourism in the summer season and may be attractive for more tourists considering the positive relationship between arrival and overnight stay and tourist comfort. Full article

The vast majority of fire-related deaths occur in residential buildings. Until recently, the fire risk for these buildings was only considered through static risk assessments or period-based assessments applying to certain periods of the year, e.g., Christmas holidays. However, for homes with indoor wooden panelling, especially in the ceiling, a dynamic fire danger indicator can be predicted for cold climate regions. Recognising the effect of fuel moisture content (FMC) of indoor wooden panelling on the enclosure fire development allows for the prediction of a wooden home fire danger indicator. In the present study, dry wood fire dynamics are analysed and experimental observations are reported to support in-home wooden panel FMC as a suitable wooden home fire danger indicator. Then, from previous work, the main equation for modelling in-home FMC is considered and a generic enclosure for FMC modelling is justified based on literature data and supported through a sensitivity study for Norwegian wooden homes. Further, ten years of weather data for three selected locations in Norway, i.e., a coastal town, an inland fjord town and a mountain town, were analysed using a three-dimensional risk matrix to assess the usability of the fire risk modelling results. Finally, a cold climate wooden home fire danger index was introduced to demonstrate how the risk concept can be communicated in an intuitive way using similar gradings as the existing national forest fire index. Based on the generic enclosure, the findings support FMC as a fire risk indicator for homes with interior wooden panelling (walls and ceiling). Large differences in the number of days with arid in-home conditions were identified for the selected towns. The number of days with combined strong wind and dry wooden homes appears to depend more on the number of days with strong wind than days of in-home drought. Thus, the coastal town was more susceptible to conflagrations than the drier inland towns. This aligns well with the most significant fire disasters in Norway since 1900. In addition, it was demonstrated that the number of high-risk periods is manageable and can be addressed by local fire departments through proactive measures. In turn, the fire risk modelling and associated index respond well to the recent changes in Norwegian regulations, requiring the fire departments to have systems for detecting increased risk levels. Testing the modelling for a severe winter fire in the USA indicates that the presented approach may be of value elsewhere as well. Full article

Climate change and its fluctuations exert significant impacts on the tourism industry, particularly through the influence of high temperatures as typical meteorological and climatic factors on tourists’ travel intentions, spatial behavior preferences, and destination choices. This study employs China as a case study to investigate the effects of high-temperature weather on tourism and tourist travel. By analyzing news reports, conducting observations, and examining statistics, an exploratory analysis of tourism in China under high-temperature scenarios reveals several noteworthy findings. Firstly, tourists seeking relief from the summer heat exhibit a preference for short-distance trips and destinations rich in natural resources. Secondly, heat-escape tourism products have gradually transformed over time, evolving from mountain heat escapes in the 1980s to waterfront vacations in the 1990s, artificial water leisure in the 2000s, and ultimately culminating in the development of heat-escape cities in the 2010s. Additionally, this study examines interregional disparities in summer tourism climate amenity across China using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI), the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), and daily data from 775 weather stations. It also provides a summary of the spatiotemporal evolution from 1961 to 2020 within the context of climate change, revealing intriguing findings. Moreover, a case study of Shanghai Disneyland demonstrates the greater significance of the holiday system compared to temperature constraints. This study aims to examine the interaction between high temperatures and China’s tourism in the context of climate change, providing a scientific foundation for government agencies and tourism enterprises to develop effective policies and plans. Full article

Climate change has had a significant impact on the tourism industry in many countries, leading to changes in policies and adaptations to attract more visitors. However, there are few studies on the effects of climate change on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry and income, despite its importance as a destination for tourists. A study was conducted to analyze the holiday climate index (HCI) for Sri Lanka’s urban and beach destinations to address this gap. The analysis covered historical years (2010–2018) and forecasted climatic scenarios (2021–2050 and 2071–2100), and the results were presented as colored maps to highlight the importance of HCI scores. Visual analysis showed some correlation between HCI scores and tourist arrivals, but the result of the overall correlation analysis was not significant. However, a country-specific correlation analysis revealed interesting findings, indicating that the changing climate can be considered among other factors that impact tourist arrivals. The research proposes that authorities assess the outcomes of the study and conduct further research to develop adaptive plans for Sri Lanka’s future tourism industry. The study also investigated potential scenarios for beach and urban destinations under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the near and far future, presenting the findings to tourism industry stakeholders for any necessary policy changes. As Sri Lanka expects more Chinese visitors in the future due to ongoing development projects, this study could be valuable for policymakers and industry stakeholders when adapting to changing climate and future tourist behavior. While more research is needed to fully understand the effects of climate change on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry, this study serves as a starting point for future investigations. Full article

Nature, landscape, relaxation, and outdoor activities are important motivations when choosing rural destinations for vacations. Therefore, when selecting a rural area as a vacation destination, we assume that climate features are important. We investigated the appropriateness of the holiday climate index: urban (HCI:urban) in quantitatively describing the relationship between climate and tourism fluxes in such destinations. We employed data from 94 urban and rural tourist destinations in Romania and correlated the monthly mean HCI:urban values with sectoral data (overnight tourists) for 2010–2018. The results show that weather and climate influenced tourism fluxes similarly in rural and urban destinations, supporting the hypothesis that HCI:urban may be used for rural areas as well. The information derived from HCI:urban may be useful for tourists when planning their vacations as well as for tourism investors in managing their businesses and reducing the weather and climate-related seasonality in tourism fluxes. Full article

Climate and weather conditions have a profound influence on humans’ sense of comfort and discomfort. In addition, the impact of emissions and human activities on air quality seems to be scientifically indisputable. The maintenance of low levels of environmental nuisance in areas of high environmental and cultural interest, such as some Greek islands, is becoming increasingly important. Thus, exploring the combination of the effect of air quality and climate comfort in a high-traffic area falls within the scope of the principles and practices of sustainable development in such areas. The current study aims to shed some light on this field, for the case of Rhodes city, which is located in the eastern Mediterranean, during the summer of 2021. For the analysis, measurements of the concentration of pollutants ($P{M}_{2.5}$, $N{O}_{{\rm X}}$ and $O_3$) and meteorological recordings (wind speed, wind direction and temperature) from a mobile air quality system located in the center of Rhodes city were conducted. Furthermore, meteorological data from the ERA5 reanalysis (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, cloud cover and height of boundary layer) over a geographical domain around Rhodes Island were included in the study. Results show that climate conditions and emissions are closely linked to traffic and tourism activities, which in turn affect the variability of pollutant concentrations. The calculation of the discomfort index shows that during periods of higher levels of air pollution, the population of Rhodes city feels partially comfortable, while the holiday climate index values show that the climatic conditions are suitable for tourist activities. In conclusion, this study could enhance our understanding of climate comfort and air quality by providing some evidence of the benefits of implementing a sustainable development policy in such tourist areas. Full article

Climate is an essential component in the sustainability of tourism cities. Coastal tourism cities face unprecedented challenges under a changing climate. The complexity of the tourism–climate interface predicates the need for tools that can assess the weather and climate accurately. Tourism climate indices have been widely developed to evaluate the temporal and spatial distribution of climate resources, but these indices are not entirely applicable to coastal cities facing air pollution. This study developed a Coastal Tourism Climate Index (CTCI) to assess the tourism climate suitability of Chinese coastal cities. The CTCI was developed to include five variables: thermal comfort, sunshine, precipitation, wind, and air quality. This index was applied and verified in the case of nine coastal tourism cities in China compared to the Holiday Climate Index (HCI: Beach). According to the results, the CTCI is more suitable for coastal tourism climate assessment in China. Finally, corresponding countermeasures are put forward for the balanced and sustainable development of Chinese coastal tourism cities. This study takes the lead in applying big data to the development and validation of tourism climate indices. These findings provide novel insights for the tourism climate assessment of coastal destinations facing air pollution. Full article

In this study, we performed a diagnostic and evolutive analysis of the bioclimatology of the Canary Islands, an Atlantic archipelago where the climate itself is a main feature promoting tourism. Among all the tourist-climate indices described in the literature, we evaluated the most widely used, which is the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) proposed by Mieczkowski (1985). Monthly mean TCI time series were calculated using meteorological data from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency database and the European Climate Assessment and Dataset. Our results show TCI values greater than 50 during almost every month in the period 1950–2018, with mean values over the entire time series between 70 and 80. According to the TCI classification scheme, these values correspond to a very good thermal comfort along all of the period. Our results also point to spring as the season with the best TCI, with maximum values around 80 for this index in April—excellent according to the TCI classification. However, we did not find a correlation between inbound arrivals and the TCI index, which might point to a lack of information available to tourists. This opens an opportunity for policymakers and tour operators to better publicize the best seasons for holidays in the islands. Full article

The Special Issue on climate indices and climate change deals with various kinds of indices exits to assess weather and climate over a region. These indices might be based on local, regional, remote variables, which may affect and define the weather and climate of a region. Climate indices are the time series used to monitor the state of the climate and its relationship with other possible causes. With indices being myriad, it is challenging to choose which one is appropriate for a region of interest. However, the relationship between the indices and the climate of a region varies. El-Nino Southern Oscillation (Southern Oscillation Index, SOI/ENSO) is one of the most robust climate signals that stimulate rainfall, temperature, and hurricanes via teleconnections. SOI has a correlation of 0.5 over the Indonesian archipelago. Here, some of the well-known indices Holiday Climate Index (HCI), Tourism Climate Index (TCI), and Simple Diversity Index (SDI) are being reconnoitered to understand the holiday-tourism, end-of-the-day (EOD) judgment. The intrusion of dry air in the middle troposphere can create unstable weather, leading to heavy precipitation. The Special Issue seeks to encourage researchers to discover new indices in multidisciplinary department of atmospheric and physical sciences. Full article

Tourism is a major socioeconomic contributor to established and emerging destinations in the Mediterranean region. Recent studies introducing the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) highlight the significance of climate as a factor in sustaining the competitiveness of coastal and urban destinations. The aim of this study is to assess the future HCI performance of urban and beach destinations in the greater Mediterranean region. For this purpose, HCI scores for the reference (1971–2000) and future (2021–2050, 2070–2099) periods were computed with the use of two latest greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, based on the Middle East North Africa (MENA) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domain and data. The outputs were adjusted to a 500 m resolution via the use of lapse rate corrections that extrapolate the climate model topography against a resampled digital elevation model. All periodic results were seasonally aggregated and visualized on a (web) geographical information system (GIS). The web version of the GIS also allowed for a basic climate service where any user can search her/his place of interest overlaid with index ratings. Exposure levels are revealed at the macro scale while sensitivity is discussed through a validation of the climatic outputs against visitation data for one of Mediterranean’s leading destinations, Antalya. Full article

Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists’ stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index—the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach—for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R²) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research. Full article