Search Results (255)

This study explores advanced methods for analyzing the two-parameter alpha-power exponential (APE) distribution using data from a novel generalized progressive hybrid censoring scheme. The APE model is inherently asymmetric, exhibiting positive skewness across all valid parameter values due to its right-skewed exponential base, with the alpha-power transformation amplifying or dampening this skewness depending on the power parameter. The proposed censoring design offers new insights into modeling lifetime data that exhibit non-monotonic hazard behaviors. It enhances testing efficiency by simultaneously imposing fixed-time constraints and ensuring a minimum number of failures, thereby improving inference quality over traditional censoring methods. We derive maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimates for the APE distribution parameters and key reliability measures, such as the reliability and hazard rate functions. Bayesian analysis is performed using independent gamma priors under a symmetric squared error loss, implemented via the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. Interval estimation is addressed using two normality-based asymptotic confidence intervals and two credible intervals obtained through a simulated Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. Monte Carlo simulations across various censoring scenarios demonstrate the stable and superior precision of the proposed methods. Optimal censoring patterns are identified based on the observed Fisher information and its inverse. Two real-world case studies—breast cancer remission times and global oil reserve data—illustrate the practical utility of the APE model within the proposed censoring framework. These applications underscore the model’s capability to effectively analyze diverse reliability phenomena, bridging theoretical innovation with empirical relevance in lifetime data analysis. Full article

The Maxwell–Boltzmann (MB) distribution is fundamental in statistical physics, providing an exact description of particle speed or energy distributions. In this study, a discrete formulation derived via the survival function discretization technique extends the MB model’s theoretical strengths to realistically handle lifetime and reliability data recorded in integer form, enabling accurate modeling under inherently discrete or censored observation schemes. The proposed discrete MB (DMB) model preserves the continuous MB’s flexibility in capturing diverse hazard rate shapes, while directly addressing the discrete and often censored nature of real-world lifetime and reliability data. Its formulation accommodates right-skewed, left-skewed, and symmetric probability mass functions with an inherently increasing hazard rate, enabling robust modeling of negatively skewed and monotonic-failure processes where competing discrete models underperform. We establish a comprehensive suite of distributional properties, including closed-form expressions for the probability mass, cumulative distribution, hazard functions, quantiles, raw moments, dispersion indices, and order statistics. For parameter estimation under Type-II censoring, we develop maximum likelihood, Bayesian, and bootstrap-based approaches and propose six distinct interval estimation methods encompassing frequentist, resampling, and Bayesian paradigms. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations systematically compare estimator performance across varying sample sizes, censoring levels, and prior structures, revealing the superiority of Bayesian–MCMC estimators with highest posterior density intervals in small- to moderate-sample regimes. Two genuine datasets—spanning engineering reliability and clinical survival contexts—demonstrate the DMB model’s superior goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy over eleven competing discrete lifetime models. Full article

Background/Objectives: There is a need for prediction models which enable weighing benefits against risks of different treatment strategies for individual Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients. Therefore, we aimed to predict absolute risk of progression, first relapse or death (PRD) with and without incorporating HL treatment. Methods: The prognostic and treatment information of 2343 patients treated for classical HL at ages 15–60 years between 2008 and 2018 in the Netherlands was used to predict absolute risk of PRD up to 5 years after diagnosis using Cox proportional hazard models allowing for time-varying coefficients. Models were externally validated in 1675 patients treated for classical HL in Denmark between 2000 and 2018. Results: In early stages, gender, leukocyte, and lymphocyte counts were associated with risk of PRD. Additionally, receiving >4 cycles of ABVD (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine) or ABVD plus radiotherapy predicted lower risk of relapse compared with receiving ≤4 cycles of ABVD. In advanced stages, age, albumin and leukocyte counts predicted PRD risk. Receiving (escalated) BEACOPP (bleomycin, etoposide, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, prednisone) predicted lower PRD risk compared to ABVD. In Danish patients treated between 2008 and 2018, adding treatment information improved 5-year Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighted (IPCW) Area Under the Curve (AUC) values from 0.63 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.55–0.72) to 0.71 (95% CI: 0.63–0.79) in early stages (p-value = 0.04) and from 0.59 (95% CI: 0.52–0.65) to 0.62 (95% CI: 0.55–0.68) in advanced stages (p-value = 0.33). Conclusions: We developed well calibrated models with reasonable discrimination, not only incorporating pre-treatment prognostic factors but also treatment effect enabling the prediction of absolute risk of first relapse/progression. Full article

This study introduces an inverted version of the three-parameter Hjorth lifespan model, characterized by one scale parameter and two shape parameters, referred to as the inverted Hjorth (IH) distribution. This asymmetric distribution can fit various positively skewed datasets more accurately than several existing models in the literature, as it can accommodate data exhibiting an inverted (upside-down) bathtub-shaped hazard rate. We derive key properties of the model, including quantiles, moments, reliability measures, stress–strength reliability, and order statistics. Point estimation of the IH model parameters is performed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Moreover, for interval estimation, two types of asymptotic confidence intervals and two types of Bayesian credible intervals are obtained using the same estimation methodologies. As an extension to a complete sampling plan, Type-II censoring is employed to examine the impact of data incompleteness on IH parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that Bayesian point and credible estimates outperform those obtained via classical estimation methods across several precision metrics, including mean squared error, average absolute bias, average interval length, and coverage probability. To further assess its performance, two real datasets are analyzed: one from the environmental domain (minimum monthly water flows of the Piracicaba River) and another from the pharmacological domain (plasma indomethacin concentrations). The superiority and flexibility of the inverted Hjorth model are evaluated and compared with several competing models. The results confirm that the IH distribution provides a better fit than several existing lifetime models—such as the inverted Gompertz, inverted log-logistic, inverted Lomax, and inverted Nadarajah–Haghighi distributions—making it a valuable tool for reliability and survival data analysis. Full article

Life testing of products often requires extended observation periods. To shorten the duration of these tests, products can be subjected to more extreme conditions than those encountered in normal use; an approach known as accelerated life testing (ALT) is considered. This study investigates the estimation of unknown parameters and the acceleration factor for the modified Fréchet-Lomax exponential distribution (MFLED), utilizing Type II progressively first-failure censored (PFFC) samples obtained under the framework of constant-stress partially accelerated life testing (CSPALT). Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is employed to obtain point estimates for the model parameters and the acceleration factor, while the Fisher information matrix is used to construct asymptotic confidence intervals (ACIs) for these estimates. To improve the precision of inference, two parametric bootstrap methods are also implemented. In the Bayesian context, a method for eliciting prior hyperparameters is proposed, and Bayesian estimates are obtained using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. These estimates are evaluated under both symmetric and asymmetric loss functions, and the corresponding credible intervals (CRIs) are computed. A comprehensive simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of ML, bootstrap, and Bayesian estimators in terms of mean squared error and coverage probabilities of confidence intervals. Finally, real-world failure time data of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are analyzed to demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed methods in practical reliability studies, highlighting their value in modeling the lifetime behavior of electronic components. Full article

Change point models are widely used in medical and epidemiological studies to capture the threshold effects of continuous covariates on health outcomes. These threshold effects represent critical points at which the relationship between biomarkers or risk factors and disease risk shifts, often reflecting underlying biological mechanisms or clinically relevant intervention points. While most existing methods focus on right-censored data, interval censoring is common in large-scale clinical trials and follow-up studies, where the exact event times are not observed but are known to fall within time intervals. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric transformation model with an unknown change point for interval-censored data. The model allows flexible transformation functions, including the proportional hazards and proportional odds models, and it accommodates both main effects and their interactions with the threshold variable. Model parameters are estimated via the EM algorithm, with the change point identified through a profile likelihood approach using grid search. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and evaluate their finite-sample performance through extensive simulations, showing good accuracy and coverage properties. The method is further illustrated through an application to the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial data. Full article

This study focuses on analyzing progressive Type-II right censoring competing risks datasets. The latent causes of failures are assumed to follow independent generalized linear exponential distributions. The maximum likelihood and maximum product of spacing methods are employed to estimate the unknown parameters and survival indices. Furthermore, approximate confidence intervals are derived using the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood and the maximum product of spacing estimators. Additionally, bootstrap methods are employed to construct confidence intervals. A comprehensive simulation study is carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of these estimation approaches. Finally, real-world datasets are analyzed to illustrate the practical applicability of the proposed model. Full article

In medical research, random censoring often occurs due to unforeseen subject withdrawals, whereas progressive censoring is intentionally applied to minimize time and resource requirements during experimentation. This work focuses on estimating the parameters of a two-parameter exponential distribution under a progressive Type-II random censoring scheme, which integrates both censoring strategies. The use of symmetric properties in failure and censoring time models, arising from a shared location parameter, facilitates a balanced and robust inferential framework. This symmetry ensures interpretational clarity and enhances the tractability of both frequentist and Bayesian methods. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are obtained, along with asymptotic confidence intervals. A Bayesian approach is also introduced, utilizing inverse gamma priors, and Gibbs sampling is implemented to derive Bayesian estimates. The effectiveness of the proposed methodologies was assessed through extensive Monte Carlo simulations and demonstrated using an actual dataset. Full article

Accurate modeling of product lifetimes is vital in reliability analysis and engineering to ensure quality and maintain competitiveness. This paper proposes the progressively randomly censored Maxwell distribution, which incorporates both progressive Type-II and random censoring within the Maxwell distribution framework. The model allows for the planned removal of surviving units at specific stages of an experiment, accounting for both deliberate and random censoring events. It is assumed that survival and censoring times each follow a Maxwell distribution, though with distinct parameters. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are employed to estimate the model parameters. In the frequentist approach, maximum likelihood estimators and their corresponding confidence intervals are derived. In the Bayesian approach, Bayes estimators are obtained using an inverse gamma prior and evaluated through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method under the squared error loss function (SELF). A Monte Carlo simulation study evaluates the performance of the proposed estimators. The practical relevance of the methodology is demonstrated using a real data set. Full article

This paper explores statistical techniques for estimating unknown lifetime parameters using data from a progressive first-failure censoring scheme. The failure times are modeled with a new Weibull–Pareto distribution. Maximum likelihood estimators are derived for the model parameters, as well as for the survival and hazard rate functions, although these estimators do not have explicit closed-form solutions. The Newton–Raphson algorithm is employed for the numerical computation of these estimates. Confidence intervals for the parameters are approximated based on the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimators. The Fisher information matrix is calculated using the missing information principle, and the delta technique is applied to approximate confidence intervals for the survival and hazard rate functions. Bayesian estimators are developed under squared error, linear exponential, and general entropy loss functions, assuming independent gamma priors. Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is used to obtain Bayesian point estimates and the highest posterior density credible intervals for the parameters and reliability measures. Finally, the proposed methods are demonstrated through the analysis of a real dataset. Full article

A novel unified progressive hybrid censoring is introduced to combine both progressive and hybrid censoring plans to allow flexible test termination either after a prespecified number of failures or at a fixed time. This work develops both frequentist and Bayesian inferential procedures for estimating the parameters, reliability, and hazard rates of the inverted Nadarajah–Haghighi lifespan model when a sample is produced from such a censoring plan. Maximum likelihood estimators are obtained through the Newton–Raphson iterative technique. The delta method, based on the Fisher information matrix, is utilized to build the asymptotic confidence intervals for each unknown quantity. In the Bayesian methodology, Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques with independent gamma priors are implemented to generate posterior summaries and credible intervals, addressing computational intractability through the Metropolis—Hastings algorithm. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations compare the efficiency and utility of frequentist and Bayesian estimates across multiple censoring designs, highlighting the superiority of Bayesian inference using informative prior information. Two real-world applications utilizing rare minerals from gold and diamond durability studies are examined to demonstrate the adaptability of the proposed estimators to the analysis of rare events in precious materials science. By applying four different optimality criteria to multiple competing plans, an analysis of various progressive censoring strategies that yield the best performance is conducted. The proposed censoring framework is effectively applied to real-world datasets involving diamonds and gold, demonstrating its practical utility in modeling the reliability and failure behavior of rare and high-value minerals. Full article

This paper presents a comprehensive statistical analysis of the Gumbel Type-II distribution based on joint progressive Type-II censoring. It derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the distribution parameters and constructs their asymptotic confidence intervals. It investigates Bayesian estimation using non-informative and informative priors under the squared error loss function and the LINEX loss function, applying Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. A detailed simulation study evaluates the estimators’ performance in terms of average estimates, mean squared errors, and average confidence interval lengths. Results show that Bayesian estimators can outperform maximum likelihood estimators, especially with informative priors. A real data example demonstrates the practical use of the proposed methods. The analysis confirms that the Gumbel Type-II distribution with joint progressive censoring provides a flexible and effective model for lifetime data, enabling more accurate reliability assessment and risk analysis in engineering and survival studies. Full article

The Gumbel Type-II distribution is a widely recognized and frequently utilized lifetime distribution, playing a crucial role in reliability engineering. This paper focuses on the statistical inference of the Gumbel Type-II distribution under a random censoring scheme. From a frequentist perspective, point estimates for the unknown parameters are derived using the maximum likelihood estimation method, and confidence intervals are constructed based on the Fisher information matrix. From a Bayesian perspective, Bayes estimates of the parameters are obtained using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, and the average lengths of credible intervals are calculated. The Bayesian inference is performed under both the squared error loss function and the general entropy loss function. Additionally, a numerical simulation is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods. To demonstrate their practical applicability, a real world example is provided, illustrating the application and development of these inference techniques. In conclusion, the Bayesian method appears to outperform other approaches, although each method offers unique advantages. Full article

This study focuses on estimating the unknown parameters and the reliability function of the inverted-Weibull distribution, using an improved adaptive progressive Type-II censoring scheme under a competing risks model. Both classical and Bayesian estimation approaches are explored to offer a thorough analysis. Under the classical approach, maximum likelihood estimators are obtained for the unknown parameters and the reliability function. Approximate confidence intervals are also constructed to assess the uncertainty in the estimates. From a Bayesian standpoint, symmetric Bayes estimates and highest posterior density credible intervals are computed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, assuming a symmetric squared error loss function. An extensive simulation study is carried out to assess how well the proposed methods perform under different experimental conditions, showing promising accuracy. To demonstrate the practical use of these methods, a real dataset is analyzed, consisting of the survival times of male mice aged 35 to 42 days after being exposed to 300 roentgens of X-ray radiation. The analysis demonstrated that the inverted Weibull distribution is well-suited for modeling the given dataset. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimation method, considering both point estimates and interval estimates, was found to be more effective than the classical approach in estimating the model parameters as well as the reliability function. Full article

Competing risk models are essential in survival analysis for studying systems with multiple mutually exclusive failure events. This study investigates the application of competing risk models in the presence of progressively Type-II censored data for the Dagum distribution, a flexible distribution suited for modeling data with heavy tails and varying skewness and kurtosis. The methodology includes maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameters, with a focus on the special case of a common shape parameter, which allows for a closed-form expression of the relative risks. A hypothesis test is developed to assess the validity of this assumption, and both asymptotic and bootstrap confidence intervals are constructed. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations, and their applicability is demonstrated with a real-world example. Full article