Search Results (7,099)

This study predicts sedimentary architectures and facies distribution within the Pliocene prograding prism of the Roussillon Basin (Gulf of Lion, France), developed along an onshore–offshore continuum. Boreholes and outcrops provide facies-scale observations onshore, while seismic data capture basin-scale structures offshore. Forward seismic modeling bridges spatial and scale gaps between these datasets, yielding characteristic synthetic seismic signatures for the sedimentary facies associations observed onshore, used as analogs for offshore deposits. These signatures are then identified in offshore seismic data, allowing seismic profiles to be populated with sedimentary facies without a well tie. Predicted offshore architectures are consistent with shoreline trajectories and facies successions observed onshore. The Roussillon prism records passive margin reconstruction in the Mediterranean Basin following the Messinian Salinity Crisis, through the following three successive depositional profiles marking the onset of infilling: (1) Gilbert deltas, (2) wave- and storm-reworked fan deltas, and (3) a wave-dominated delta. Offshore, transitions in clinoform type modify sedimentary architectures, influenced by inherited Messinian paleotopography. This autogenic control generates spatial variability in accommodation, driving changes in depositional style. Overall, this multi-scale and integrative approach provides a robust framework for predicting offshore sedimentary architectures and can be applied to other deltaic settings with limited land–sea data continuity. Full article

Rapid climate change has exacerbated global ecosystem degradation, leading to habitat fragmentation and landscape connectivity loss. Constructing ecological networks (EN) with resilient conduction functions and conservation priorities is crucial for maintaining regional ecological security and promoting sustainable development. However, the spatiotemporal modeling and dynamic resilience assessment of EN under the combined impacts of future climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes remain underexplored. This study focuses on the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA), China, and integrates landscape ecology with complex network theory to develop a dynamic resilience assessment framework that incorporates multi-scenario LULC projections, multi-temporal EN construction, and node-link disturbance simulations. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) scenarios, we quantified spatiotemporal variations in EN resilience and identified resilience-based conservation priority areas. The results show that: (1) Future EN patterns exhibit a westward clustering trend, with expanding habitat areas and enhanced connectivity. (2) From 2000 to 2040, EN resilience remains generally stable, but diverges significantly across scenarios—showing steady increases under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, while slightly declining under SSP2-4.5. (3) Approximately 20% of nodes and 40% of links are identified as critical components for maintaining structural-functional resilience, and are projected to form conservation priority patterns characterized by larger habitat areas and more compact connectivity under future scenarios. The multi-scenario analysis provides differentiated strategies for EN planning and ecological conservation. This framework offers adaptive and resilient solutions for regional ecosystem management under climate change. Full article

University campuses in rapidly urbanizing regions face increasing pressure to balance infrastructure development with environmental sustainability, yet their carbon storage potential remains largely unexplored in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assessed land use changes, carbon storage dynamics, and economic valuation across three Ghanaian universities, University of Ghana (UG), Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), and University of Cape Coast (UCC), from 2017 to 2023, and evaluated five future scenarios using the InVEST carbon model. Land use analysis employed ESRI 10 m annual land cover data, while carbon storage was estimated using regionally appropriate carbon pool values, and economic valuation applied Ghana’s social cost of carbon ($0.970/tCO₂). Historical analysis revealed substantial carbon losses: UG declined by 17.1% (19,695 Mg C), KNUST by 29.5% (20,063 Mg C), and UCC by 7.9% (3292 Mg C), due to tree cover conversion to built areas. Scenario modeling demonstrated that infrastructure-focused development would cause additional losses of 4211–6891 Mg C, while extensive tree expansion could increase storage by 1686–5227 Mg C. Economic analysis showed tree expansion generating positive net present values ($1612–$5070), while infrastructure development imposed costs (−$4028 to −$6684). These findings provide quantitative evidence for sustainable campus planning prioritizing carbon conservation in tropical institutional landscapes. Full article

Lake Qinghai, the largest closed-basin lake on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, plays a crucial role in maintaining regional ecological stability through its hydrological functions. In recent decades, the lake has exhibited a continuous rise in water level and lake area expansion, sparking growing interest in the mechanisms driving these changes and their future evolution. This study integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), simulations under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and statistical analysis methods, to assess runoff dynamics and lake level responses in the Lake Qinghai Basin over the next 30 years. The model was developed using a combination of meteorological, hydrological, topographic, land use, soil, and socio-economic datasets, and was calibrated with the sequential uncertainty fitting Ver-2 (SUFI-2) algorithm within the SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedure (SWAT–CUP) platform. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses confirmed robust model performance, with monthly R² values of 0.78 and 0.79. Correlation analysis revealed that runoff variability is more closely associated with precipitation than temperature in the basin. Under SSP 1-2.6, SSP 3-7.0, and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios, projected annual precipitation increases by 14.4%, 18.9%, and 11.1%, respectively, accompanied by temperature rises varying with emissions scenario. Model simulations indicate a significant increase in runoff in the Buha River Basin, peaking around 2047. These findings provide scientific insight into the hydrological response of plateau lakes to future climate change and offer a valuable reference for regional water resource management and ecological conservation strategies. Full article

The Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), which contributes about 60% to the annual Nile flow, plays a critical role in the Nile water management. However, its complex terrain and climate create significant challenges for accurate regional climate simulations, which are essential for climate impact assessments. This study aims to address the challenges of climate simulation over the UBNB by enhancing the Regional Climate Model system (RegCM5) with its new non-hydrostatic dynamical core (MOLOCH) to simulate precipitation and temperature. The model is driven by ERA5 reanalysis for the period (2000–2009), and two scenarios are simulated using two different schemes of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL): Holtslag (Hol) and University of Washington (UW). The two scenarios, noted as (MOLOCH-Hol and MOLOCH-UW), are compared to the previously best-performing hydrostatic configuration. The MOLOCH-UW scenario showed the best precipitation performance relative to observations, with an accepted dry Bias% up to 22%, and a high annual cycle correlation >0.85. However, MOLOCH-Hol showed a very good performance only in the wet season with a wet bias of 4% and moderate correlation of ≈0.6. For temperature, MOLOCH-UW also outperformed, achieving the lowest cold/warm bias range of −2% to +3%, and high correlations of ≈0.9 through the year and the wet season. This study concluded that the MOLOCH-UW is the most reliable configuration for reproducing the climate variability over the UBNB. This developed configuration is a promising tool for the basin’s hydroclimate applications, such as dynamical downscaling of the seasonal forecasts and future climate change scenarios produced by global circulation models. Future improvements could be achieved through convective-permitting simulation at ≤4 km resolution, especially in the application of assessing the land use change impact. Full article

The accelerated global urbanization process has positioned land use/land cover change modeling as a critical component of contemporary geographic science and urban planning research. Traditional approaches face substantial challenges when addressing urban system complexity, multiscale spatial interactions, and high-dimensional data associations, creating urgent demand for sophisticated analytical frameworks. This review comprehensively evaluates machine learning applications in land use prediction through systematic analysis of 74 publications spanning 2020–2024, establishing a taxonomic framework distinguishing traditional machine learning, deep learning, and hybrid methodologies. The review contributes a comprehensive methodological assessment identifying algorithmic evolution patterns and performance benchmarks across diverse geographic contexts. Traditional methods demonstrate sustained reliability, while deep learning architectures excel in complex pattern recognition. Most significantly, hybrid methodologies have emerged as the dominant paradigm through algorithmic complementarity, consistently outperforming single-algorithm implementations. However, contemporary applications face critical constraints including computational complexity, scalability limitations, and interpretability issues impeding practical adoption. This review advances the field by synthesizing fragmented knowledge into a coherent framework and identifying research trajectories toward integrated intelligent systems with explainable artificial intelligence. Full article

Land degradation in Iraq’s Mesopotamian plain threatens food security and rural livelihoods, yet the relative roles of climatic water deficits versus anthropogenic pressures remain poorly attributed in space. We test the hypothesis that multi-timescale climatic water deficits (SPEI-03/-06/-12) exert a stronger effect on vegetation degradation risk than anthropogenic pressures, conditional on hydrological connectivity and irrigation. Using Babil and Al-Qadisiyah (2000–2023) as a case, we implement a four-part pipeline: (i) Fractional Vegetation Cover with Mann–Kendall/Sen’s slope to quantify greening/browning trends; (ii) LandTrendr to extract disturbance timing and magnitude; (iii) annual LULC maps from a Random Forest classifier to resolve transitions; and (iv) an XGBoost classifier to map degradation risk and attribute climate vs. anthropogenic influence via drop-group permutation (ΔAUC), grouped SHAP shares, and leave-group-out ablation, all under spatial block cross-validation. Driver attribution shows mid-term and short-term drought (SPEI-06, SPEI-03) as the strongest predictors, and conditional permutation yields a larger average AUC loss for the climate block than for the anthropogenic block, while grouped SHAP shares are comparable between the two, and ablation suggests a neutral to weak anthropogenic edge. The XGBoost model attains AUC = 0.884 (test) and maps 9.7% of the area as high risk (>0.70), concentrated away from perennial water bodies. Over 2000–2023, LULC change indicates CA +515 km², HO +129 km², UL +70 km², BL −697 km², WB −16.7 km². Trend analysis shows recovery across 51.5% of the landscape (+29.6% dec⁻¹ median) and severe decline over 2.5% (−22.0% dec⁻¹). The integrated design couples trend mapping with driver attribution, clarifying how compounded climatic stress and intensive land use shape contemporary desertification risk and providing spatial priorities for restoration and adaptive water management. Full article

As global climate change intensifies the frequency of extreme weather events, urban flood control and disaster reduction efforts face unprecedented challenges. With the limitations of traditional, top-down emergency management becoming increasingly apparent, many countries are actively incorporating community-based participation into flood risk governance. While research in this area is expanding, the specific impact of urban flood inundation severity on residents’ participation in relief efforts remains significantly underexplored. To address this research gap, this study employs the Community Capitals Framework (CCF) and a Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model to empirically analyze 1322 survey responses from Zhengzhou, China, exploring the non-linear relationship between flood severity and public participation. Our findings are threefold: (1) As the most direct source of residents’ risk perception, flood inundation severity has a significant association with their participation level. (2) This relationship is distinctly non-linear. For instance, inundation severity within a 200 m radius of a resident’s home shows a predominantly negative relation with participation level, with the negative effect lessening at extreme levels of inundation. The distance from inundated areas, conversely, exhibits an “S-shaped” curve. (3) Flood severity exhibits a significant reinforcement interaction with both communication technology levels and government organizational mobilization. This indicates that, during public crises like flash floods, robust information channels and effective organizational support are positively related to residents’ transition from passive to active participation. This study reveals the complex, non-linear associations between flood severity and civic engagement, providing theoretical support and practical insights for optimizing disaster policies and enhancing community resilience within the broader context of urban land management and sustainable development. Full article

Oases in arid regions are crucial for sustaining agricultural production and ecological stability, yet few studies have simultaneously examined the coupled dynamics of land use/cover change (LUCC), carbon emissions, and ecosystem service value (ESV) at the oasis–agricultural scale. This gap limits our understanding of how different land use trajectories shape trade-offs between carbon processes and ecosystem services in fragile arid ecosystems. This study examines the spatiotemporal interactions between land use carbon emissions and ESV from 1990 to 2020 in the Wensu Oasis, Northwest China, and predicts their future trajectories under four development scenarios. Multi-period remote sensing data, combined with the carbon emission coefficient method, modified equivalent factor method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, the coupling coordination degree model, and the PLUS model, were employed to quantify LUCC patterns, carbon emission intensity, ESV, and its coupling relationships. The results indicated that (1) cultivated land, construction land, and unused land expanded continuously (by 974.56, 66.77, and 1899.36 km²), while grassland, forests, and water bodies declined (by 1363.93, 77.92, and 1498.83 km²), with the most pronounced changes occurring between 2000 and 2010; (2) carbon emission intensity increased steadily—from 23.90 × 10⁴ t in 1990 to 169.17 × 10⁴ t in 2020—primarily driven by construction land expansion—whereas total ESV declined by 46.37%, with water and grassland losses contributing substantially; (3) carbon emission intensity and ESV exhibited a significant negative spatial correlation, and the coupling coordination degree remained low, following a “high in the north, low in the south” distribution; and (4) scenario simulations for 2030–2050 suggested that this negative correlation and low coordination will persist, with only the ecological protection scenario (EPS) showing potential to enhance both carbon sequestration and ESV. Based on spatial clustering patterns and scenario outcomes, we recommend spatially differentiated land use regulation and prioritizing EPS measures, including glacier and wetland conservation, adoption of water-saving irrigation technologies, development of agroforestry systems, and renewable energy utilization on unused land. By explicitly linking LUCC-driven carbon–ESV interactions with scenario-based prediction and evaluation, this study provides new insights into oasis sustainability, offers a scientific basis for balancing agricultural production with ecological protection in the oasis of the arid region, and informs China’s dual-carbon strategy, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. Full article

Coasts are critical ecological, economic and social interfaces between terrestrial and marine systems. The current upsurge in the acquisition and availability of remote sensing datasets, such as Landsat remote sensing data series, provides new opportunities for analyzing multi-decadal coastal changes and other components of coastal risk. The emergence of machine learning-based techniques represents a new trend that can support large-scale coastal monitoring and modeling using remote sensing big data. This study presents a comprehensive multi-decadal analysis of coastal changes for the period from 1990 to 2024 using Landsat remote sensing data series along the eastern and southern coasts of Peninsular Malaysia. These coastal regions include the states of Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, and Johor. An innovative approach combining deep learning-based shoreline extraction with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) was meticulously applied to the Landsat datasets. Two semantic segmentation models, U-Net and DeepLabV3+, were evaluated for automated shoreline delineation from the Landsat imagery, with U-Net demonstrating superior boundary precision and generalizability. The DSAS framework quantified shoreline change metrics—including Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), Shoreline Change Envelope (SCE), and Linear Regression Rate (LRR)—across the states of Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, and Johor. The results reveal distinct spatial–temporal patterns: Kelantan exhibited the highest rates of shoreline change with erosion of −64.9 m/year and accretion of up to +47.6 m/year; Terengganu showed a moderated change partly due to recent coastal protection structures; Pahang displayed both significant erosion, particularly south of the Pahang River with rates of over −50 m/year, and accretion near river mouths; Johor’s coastline predominantly exhibited accretion, with NSM values of over +1900 m, linked to extensive land reclamation activities and natural sediment deposition, although local erosion was observed along the west coast. This research highlights emerging erosion hotspots and, in some regions, the impact of engineered coastal interventions, providing critical insights for sustainable coastal zone management in Malaysia’s monsoon-influenced tropical coastal environment. The integrated deep learning and DSAS approach applied to Landsat remote sensing data series provides a scalable and reproducible framework for long-term coastal monitoring and climate adaptation planning around the world. Full article

Snowmelt runoff is a major soil erosion trigger in mid-to-high latitude and altitude regions. Through runoff plot observations and simulations in the northeastern black soil region, this study reveals the key regulatory mechanism of water migration on snowmelt erosion. Results demonstrate that the interaction between thawed upper and frozen lower soil layers creates a significant hydraulic gradient during snowmelt. Impermeability of the frozen layer causes meltwater accumulation and moisture supersaturation (>47%, exceeding field capacity) in the upper layer. Freeze–thaw action accelerates vertical moisture migration and redistributes shallow moisture by increasing porosity. This process causes soils with high initial moisture to reach supersaturation faster, triggering earlier and more frequent erosion. Gray correlation analysis shows that soil moisture migration’s contribution to erosion intensity is layered: migration in shallow soil (0–10 cm) correlates most strongly with surface erosion; migration in deep soil (10–15 cm) exhibits a U-shaped contribution due to freeze–thaw front boundary effects. A regression model identified key controlling factors (VIP > 1.0): changes in bulk density, porosity, and permeability of deep soil significantly regulate erosion intensity. The nonlinear relationship between erosion intensity and moisture content (R² = 0.82) confirms supersaturation dominance. Physical structure and mechanical properties of unfrozen layers regulate erosion dynamics via moisture migration. These findings clarify the key mechanism of moisture migration governing snowmelt erosion, providing a critical scientific foundation for developing targeted soil conservation strategies and advancing regional prediction models essential for sustainable land management under changing winter climates. Full article

Exercise-induced fatigue can degrade athletic performance and increase injury risk, yet traditional fatigue assessments often rely on subjective measures. This study proposes an objective fatigue recognition approach using high-fidelity motion capture data and deep learning. This study induced both cognitive and physical fatigue in 50 male participants through a dual task (mental challenge followed by intense exercise) and collected three-dimensional lower-limb joint kinematics and kinetics during vertical jumps. A bidirectional Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU) with an attention mechanism (BiGRU + Attention) was trained to classify pre- vs. post-fatigue states. Five-fold cross-validation was employed for within-sample evaluation, and attention weight analysis provided insight into key fatigue-related movement phases. The BiGRU + Attention model achieved superior performance with 92% classification accuracy and an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 96%, significantly outperforming the single-layer GRU baseline (85% accuracy, AUC 92%). It also exhibited higher recall and fewer missed detections of fatigue. The attention mechanism highlighted critical moments (end of countermovement and landing) associated with fatigue-induced biomechanical changes, enhancing model interpretability. This study collects spatial data and biomechanical data during movement, and uses a bidirectional Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU) model with an attention mechanism to distinguish between non-fatigue states and fatigue states involving both physical and psychological aspects, which holds certain pioneering significance in the field of fatigue state identification. This study lays the foundation for real-time fatigue monitoring systems in sports and rehabilitation, enabling timely interventions to prevent performance decline and injury. Full article

Rapid urbanization threatens water ecosystem services (WESs) in China’s Greater Bay Area. This study employs a Markov-FLUS land-use simulation coupled with the InVEST model to project land-use patterns for 2035 under four scenarios—Natural Development (ND), Farmland Protection (FP), Economic Priority (EP), and Ecological Protection (EcoP)—and evaluates their impacts on water yield, soil retention, and total phosphorus (TP) export. Under ND and FP scenarios, modest gains in water yield (+32.25% and +32.13%) and soil retention (+46.16% and +45.91%) are achieved, but TP control remains limited (−0.05% and +4.82%). In contrast, the EP scenario drives severe declines in water yield (−13.39%) and soil retention (−2.11%) alongside a TP surge (+5.87%), evidencing ecological degradation under high-intensity development. Conversely, the EcoP scenario yields substantial improvements, water yield +50.67%, soil retention +70.94%, and TP export −8.17%, reflecting the synergistic “multiplier effect” of combined woodland and water-body restoration. Spatially, urban cores and agricultural margins exhibit divergent service responses, underscoring the need for differentiated management. We developed a spatial priority map by integrating the predicted WES changes under the Ecological Protection scenario with indicators of urban proximity and pollution risk. This map identifies critical intervention zones. We propose targeted spatial optimization—strict protection of sensitive ecological zones, green transformation in urban expansion areas, and diffuse pollution controls in agricultural peripheries—to reconcile development with ecosystem resilience. Full article

The Yellow River Basin (YRB), a pivotal ecoregion in China, has long been plagued by a range of ecological problems, including water loss, soil erosion, and ecological degradation. Despite previous reports on the ecological environment of YRB, systematic studies on the multi-factor driving mechanism and the coupling between the ecological and hydrological systems remain scarce. In this study, with multi-source remote-sensing imagery and measured hydrological data, the random forest (RF) model and the geographical detector (GD) technique were employed to quantify the dynamic spatiotemporal changes in the ecological environment of YRB in 2000–2024 and identify the driving factors. The variables analyzed in this study included gross primary productivity (GPP), fractional vegetation cover (FVC), land use and cover change (LUCC), meteorological statistics, as well as runoff and sediment data measured at hydrological stations in YRB. The main findings are as follows: first, the GPP and FVC increased significantly by 37.9% and 18.0%, respectively, in YRB in 2000–2024; second, LUCC was the strongest driver of spatiotemporal changes in the ecological environment of YRB; third, precipitation and runoff contributed positively to vegetation growth, whereas the sediment played a contrary role, and the response of ecological variables to the hydrological processes exhibited a time lag of 1–2 years. This study is expected to provide scientific insights into ecological conservation and water resources management in YRB, and offer a decision-making basis for the design of sustainability policies and eco-restoration initiatives. Full article

The Athabasca River flows through the Lower Athabasca Region (LAR) in Alberta, Canada, which is characterized by variable inter-annual weather, long winters and short summers. LAR is important for the extraction of energy resources and industrial activities that lead to environmental concerns, including river pollution and exploitation. This study attempts to forecast the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray and understand the suitability of HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System) in cold weather regions, characterized by poorly gauged streams. Daily temperature and precipitation records (1971–2014) were employed in two calibration–validation schemes: (1) a temporally dependent partition (1971–2000 for calibration; 2001–2014 for validation) and (2) a temporally independent partition (alternating years assigned to calibration and validation). The temporally independent approach achieved superior performance, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.88, outperforming previously developed regional models. HEC-HMS successfully reproduced hydrologic dynamics and peak discharge events under conditions of sparse hydroclimatic data and limited computational inputs, underscoring its robustness for operational forecasting in data-scarce, cold-climate catchments. However, long-term projections may be subject to uncertainty due to the exclusion of anticipated changes in land use and climate forcing. These results substantiate the applicability of HEC-HMS as a cost-effective and reliable tool for hydrological modeling and flow forecasting in support of water resource management, particularly in regions subject to industrial pressures and associated environmental impacts. Full article