Search Results (20,537)

The UK electricity market is changing to adapt to Net Zero targets and respond to disruptions like the Russia–Ukraine war. This requires strategic planning to decide on the construction of new electricity generation plants for a resilient UK electricity grid. Such planning is based on forecasting the UK electricity demand long-term (from 1 year and beyond). In this paper, we propose a long-term predictive model by identifying the main components of the UK electricity demand, modelling each of these components, and combining them in a multiplicative manner to deliver a single long-term prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to apply a multiplicative decomposition model for long-term predictions at both monthly and hourly resolutions, combining neural networks with Fourier analysis. This approach is extremely flexible and accurate, with a mean absolute percentage error of 4.16% and 8.62% in predicting the monthly and hourly electricity demand, respectively, from 2019 to 2021. Full article

This paper examines the high-frequency impact of tariff rhetoric on financial markets, a topic largely unexplored in existing literature. Unlike previous studies that focus on the long-term, macroeconomic effects of enacted trade policies, our research utilizes a novel, sentiment-based proxy variable for non-legislated tariff announcements. We demonstrate that political communication itself—not just formal policy changes—is a potent source of investor uncertainty and market volatility. Our analysis, employing a multi-model framework including VAR and EGARCH models, reveals several key findings. We find that trade-related shocks contribute significantly to market volatility by altering investor expectations and increasing perceived risk. A key discovery is a unique unidirectional causality where shocks to the S&P 500 preceded changes in our tariff variable, suggesting that market movements can influence policy rhetoric. Furthermore, our EGARCH analysis uncovers distinct volatility characteristics across asset classes, including an atypical positive asymmetry in the Chinese CSI 300. These results collectively provide robust empirical evidence that tariff rhetoric has a measurable and significant impact on asset prices and disproportionately increases market volatility, highlighting the need for policymakers to consider the financial market implications of their public statements. Full article

Background: Neurodegeneration is present from the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis [MS], and oxidative stress together with mitochondrial dysfunction are key contributors to neuronal injury and disease progression. Objective: To investigate the role of the antioxidant enzyme paraoxonase 1 (PON1) and serum asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) levels in MS across different disease subtypes and immunomodulatory treatments. Methods: Serum lipid levels and PON1 activity were measured and compared by disease subtype and treatment in a single-center MS cohort (N = 262; CIS = 10, RRMS = 208, PPMS = 19, SPMS = 25; 110 untreated, 152 treated) and in 91 healthy controls. ADMA levels were assessed in sera from 79 MS patients (19 untreated, 60 treated) and 31 age-matched controls. Results: Median serum paraoxonase (PON) and arylesterase (ARE) activity levels were 83.8 and 127.2 IU/L in MS patients versus 85.9 and 136.9 IU/L in controls, with no significant difference for PON (p = 0.191) but a significant reduction in ARE [p = 0.003]. PON activity differed significantly among disease subtypes (p = 0.023), with the highest levels in CIS. PON and ARE activity also varied across treatment groups (p = 0.038 and p = 0.034, respectively), with longitudinal analysis indicating a measurable effect of immunomodulatory therapy on PON activity at 10 years (p = 0.0136). Significant differences in enzyme activity were observed between untreated and interferon-treated patients (PON p = 0.0055, ARE p = 0.0001), with trends toward differences in ARE under natalizumab and fingolimod. ADMA levels were lower in MS patients than controls (p < 0.0001) and differed among treatment subgroups (natalizumab, dimethyl fumarate, glatiramer acetate, untreated RRMS). Conclusions: PON1 activity and ADMA levels differ between MS subgroups and under immunomodulatory treatments. Long-term therapy was associated with increased PON1 activity, while highly effective immunomodulators reduced ADMA levels. These changes may contribute to the treatment-related reduction in disease activity and attenuation of neurodegenerative processes in MS. Full article

Fatigue damage of yawed wind turbine components can be caused by repeated long-term unsteady asymmetric inflow loads across the rotor swept area, necessitating fatigue load analysis to ensure the in-operation safety of wind turbines. This study investigates the impact of geometric nonlinearity on the fatigue loads of wind turbine components. The geometrically exact beam theory (GEBT), implemented in BeamDyn of OpenFAST, is employed to model full geometric nonlinearity. For comparison, ElastoDyn in OpenFAST, which uses the generalized Euler–Bernoulli beam theory for straight isotropic beams, is also utilized. Aeroelastic simulations were conducted for the national renewable energy laboratory (NREL 5 MW) and international energy agency (IEA) 15 MW wind turbines. Fatigue loads, quantified by the damage equivalent load (DEL) based on Palmgren–Miner’s rule, were analyzed for critical components, including blade out-of-plane (OOP) moments, low-speed shaft (LSS) torque, LSS bending moment (LSSBM), and tower base bending moment (TBBM). Results indicate that geometric nonlinearity significantly influences fatigue damage in critical turbine components, with significant differences observed between BeamDyn and ElastoDyn simulations. Full article

Change points caused by extreme events in global economic markets have been widely studied in the literature. However, existing techniques to identify change points rely on subjective judgments and lack robust methodologies. The objective of this paper is to generalize a novel approach that leverages topological data analysis (TDA) to extract topological features from time series data using persistent homology. In this approach, we use Taken’s embedding and sliding window techniques to transform the initial time series data into a high-dimensional topological space. Then, in this topological space, persistent homology is used to extract topological features which can give important information related to change points. As a case study, we analyzed 26 stocks over the last 12 years by using this method and found that there were two financial market volatility indicators derived from our method, denoted as $L_1$ and $L_2$. They serve as effective indicators of long-term and short-term financial market fluctuations, respectively. Moreover, significant differences are observed across markets in different regions and sectors by using these indicators. By setting a significance threshold of 98 % for the two indicators, we found that the detected change points correspond exactly to four major financial extreme events in the past twelve years: the intensification of the European debt crisis in 2011, Brexit in 2016, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. Furthermore, benchmark comparisons with established univariate and multivariate CPD methods confirm that the TDA-based indicators consistently achieve superior F1 scores across different tolerance windows, particularly in capturing widely recognized consensus events. Full article

Background: Glenoid radiolucenct lines (gRLL) and glenoid component subsidence (gSC) after anatomic total shoulder arthroplasty (aTSA) have traditionally been linked to implant loosening and functional decline. However, their impact on long-term clinical outcomes remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate whether gRLL and gSC are associated with inferior clinical or functional results in patients without revision surgery. Methods: In this retrospective study, 52 aTSA cases (2008–2015) were analyzed with a minimum of five years of clinical and radiographic follow-up. Based on final imaging, patients were categorized according to the presence and extent of gRLL and gSC. Clinical outcomes included the Constant-Murley Score, DASH, VAS for pain, and range of motion (ROM). Radiographic parameters included the critical shoulder angle (CSA), acromiohumeral distance (AHD), lateral offset (LO), humeral head-stem index (HSI), and cranial humeral head decentration (DC). Group comparisons were conducted between: (1) ≤2 vs. 3 gRLL zones, (2) 0 vs. 1 zone, (3) 0 vs. 3 zones, (4) gSC vs. no gSC, and (5) DC vs. no DC. Results: Demographics and baseline characteristics were comparable across groups. Functional scores (Constant, DASH), pain (VAS), and ROM were largely similar. Patients with extensive gRLL showed reduced external rotation (p = 0.01), but the difference remained below the MCID. Similarly, gSC was associated with lower forward elevation (p = 0.04) and external rotation (p = 0.03), both below MCID thresholds. No significant differences were observed for DC. Conclusions: Neither extensive gRLL nor gSC significantly impaired long-term clinical or functional outcomes. As these radiographic changes can occur in the absence of symptoms, regular radiographic monitoring is essential, and revision decisions should be made individually in cases of progressive bone loss. Full article

Cultivated land quality is critical for soil productivity and scientific fertilization. This study analyzed its evolution and impact on soil productivity across three ecological regions (southern, central, and northern Shanxi) in Shanxi Province, China, from 1998 to 2021). Using data from 8 long-term experimental sites (1998–2021) and 50 monitoring stations (2016–2021), we employed random forest analysis to evaluate temporal trends in key soil indicators. The results show the following: (1) Northern Shanxi exhibited the greatest improvement in soil fertility, with organic matter increasing by 98.2%, total nitrogen by 57.2%, available phosphorus by 131.7%, and available potassium by 17.1%. (2) Nitrogen fertilizer application increased across all regions, while phosphorus and potassium inputs generally declined. (3) Crop yields improved substantially—southern Shanxi wheat and maize increased by 15.3% and 20.9%, respectively, while central and northern Shanxi maize yields rose by 30.9% and 75.4%. Random forest models identified regional characteristics (40%), nitrogen fertilization (20%), and available phosphorus (18%) as primary influencing factors. Although cultivated land quality improved overall, soil fertility remained medium to low. Region-specific management strategies are recommended: rational nitrogen use in all regions; nitrogen control with phosphorus supplementation in the south; focused improvement of available phosphorus and potassium in the center; and increased organic fertilizer in the north. These measures support scientific nutrient management and sustainable agricultural production. Full article

Long-term greenhouse operations face a critical challenge in the form of soil quality degradation, yet the key intervention periods and underlying mechanisms of this process remain unclear. This study aims to quantify the effects of greenhouse lifespan on the evolution of soil quality and to identify critical periods for intervention. We conducted a systematic survey of greenhouse operations in a representative area of Yunnan Province, Southwest China, and adopted a space-for-time substitution design. Using open-field cultivation (OF) as the control, we sampled and analyzed soils from vegetable greenhouses with greenhouse lifespans of 2 years (G2), 5 years (G5), and 10 years (G10). The results showed that early-stage greenhouse operation (G2) significantly increased soil temperature (ST) by 8.38–19.93% and soil porosity (SP) by 16.21–56.26%, promoted nutrient accumulation and enhanced aggregate stability compared to OF. However, as the greenhouse lifespan increased, the soil aggregates gradually disintegrated, particle-size distribution shifted toward finer clay fractions, and pH changed from neutral to slightly alkaline, exacerbating nutrient imbalances. Compared with G2, G10 exhibited reductions in mean weight diameter (MWD) and soil organic matter (SOM) of 2.41–5.93% and 24.78–30.93%, respectively. Among greenhouses with different lifespans, G2 had the highest soil quality index (SQI), which declined significantly with extended operation; at depths of 0–20 cm and 20–40 cm, the SQI of G10 was 32.59% and 38.97% lower than that of G2, respectively (p < 0.05). Structural equation modeling (SEM) and random forest analysis indicated that the improvement in SQI during the early stage of greenhouse use was primarily attributed to the optimization of soil hydrothermal characteristics and pore structure. Notably, the 2–5 years was the critical stage of rapid decline in SQI, during which intensive water and fertilizer inputs reduced the explanatory power of soil nutrients for SQI. Under long-term continuous cropping, the reduction in MWD and SOM was the main reason for the decline in SQI. This study contributes to targeted soil management during the critical period for sustainable production of protected vegetables in southern China. Full article

Introduction: Neck-preserving total hip arthroplasty (THA) has gained interest for conserving bone stock, restoring biomechanics, and facilitating revision surgery. The Nanos^® femoral stem, designed for metaphyseal fixation while preserving the femoral neck, represents a reliable alternative to conventional THA. This study reports 15-year clinical and radiographic outcomes of the Nanos implant. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 53 patients (35 males, 18 females) who underwent THA with the Nanos stem between 2008 and 2010. Patients were stratified into two groups according to age: <50 years (n = 24) and ≥50 years (n = 29). The primary diagnosis was osteoarthritis (95%), with a few cases of avascular necrosis or dysplasia. Clinical evaluation included the Harris Hip Score (HHS) and the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC). Radiographic assessment focused on implant stability, osteolysis, and heterotopic ossifications. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was performed with revision for any reason as the endpoint. Results: At 15 years of follow-up, both groups showed significant improvement (p < 0.001). In patients <50 years, HHS increased from 53.3 to 94.8 and WOMAC decreased from 79.9 to 3.5. In patients ≥50 years, HHS improved from 47.5 to 95.2 and WOMAC from 81.5 to 3.2. Radiographs confirmed stable fixation without osteolysis. Complications included two dislocations and one cortical perforation requiring revision. Kaplan–Meier survivorship at 15 years was 100% (<50) and 96.6% (≥50). Conclusions: The Nanos stem provided excellent long-term outcomes with low complication and revision rates. It should be considered one of several reliable short-stem options for younger, active patients, offering durable function while preserving bone stock. Full article

The study of faults in seismic gap areas is essential for assessing the potential for future seismic activity and developing strategies to mitigate its impact. In this research, we employed a combination of geomorphological analysis, aerophotogrammetry, high-resolution topography, and soil analysis to estimate the age of tectonically exposed fault surfaces in a seismic gap area. Our focus was on the Piano delle Rose Fault in the northern Calabria region, (southern Italy), which is a significant regional tectonic structure associated with seismic hazards. We conducted a field survey to carry out structural and pedological observations and collect soil samples from the fault surface. These samples were analyzed to estimate the fault’s age based on their features and degree of pedogenic development. Additionally, we used high-resolution topography and aerophotogrammetry to create a detailed 3D model of the fault surface, allowing us to identify features such as fault scarps and offsets. Our results indicate recent activity on the fault surface, suggesting that the Piano delle Rose Fault may pose a significant seismic hazard. Soil analysis suggests that the onset of the fault surface is relatively young, estimated in an interval time from 450,000 to ~ 300,000 years old. Considering these age constraints, the long-term slip rates are estimated to range between ~0.12 mm/yr and ~0.33 mm/yr, which are values comparable with those of many other well-known active faults of the Apennines extensional belt. Analyses of key fault exposures document cumulative displacements up to 21 m. These values yield long-term slip rates ranging from ~0.2 mm/yr (100,000 years) to ~1.0 mm/yr (~20,000 years LGM), indicating persistent Late Quaternary activity. A second exposure records ~0.6 m of displacement in very young soils, confirming surface faulting during recent times and suggesting that the fault is potentially capable of generating ground-rupturing earthquakes. High-resolution topography and aerophotogrammetry analyses show evidence of ongoing tectonic deformation, indicating that the area is susceptible to future seismic activity and corresponding risk. Our study highlights the importance of integrating multiple techniques for examining fault surfaces in seismic gap areas. By combining geomorphological analysis, aerophotogrammetry, high-resolution topography, and soil analysis, we gain a comprehensive understanding of the structure and behavior of faults. This approach can help assess the potential for future seismic activity and develop strategies for mitigating its impact. Full article

Background: Patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) require effective bracing to control curve progression. However, most traditional spinal braces commonly pose challenges in terms of undesired bulkiness and restricted mobility. Recent advancements have focused on innovative brace designs, utilizing novel materials and structural configurations to improve wearability and functionality. However, it remains unclear how effective these next-generation braces are biomechanically compared to traditional braces. Objectives: This review aimed to analyze the design features of next-generation AIS braces and assess their biomechanical effectiveness via reviewing contemporary studies. Methods: Studies on newly designed scoliosis braces over the past decade were searched in databases, including Web of Science, PubMed, ScienceDirect, Wiley, EBCOHost and SpringerLink. The Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Cohort Studies was adopted to evaluate the quality of the included studies. The data extracted for biomechanical effect analysis included brace components/materials, design principle, interfacial pressure, morphological changes, and intercomparison parameters. Results: A total of 19 studies encompassing 12 different kinds of braces met the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Clinical effectiveness was reported in 14 studies, with an average short-term Cobb angle correction of 25.4% (range: 12.41–34.3%) and long-term correction of 18.22% (range: 15.79–19.3%). This result aligned broadly with the previously reported efficacy of the traditional braces in short-term cases (range: 12.36–31.33%), but was lower than the long-term ones (range: 23.02–33.6%). Two included studies reported an interface pressure range between 6.0 kPa and 24.4 kPa for novel braces, which was comparable to that of the traditional braces (4.8–30.0 kPa). Additionally, five of six studies reported the trunk asymmetric parameters and demonstrated improvement in trunk alignment. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that most newly designed scoliosis braces could achieve comparable biomechanical efficacy to the conventional designs, particularly in interface pressure management and Cobb angle correction. However, future clinical adoption of these novel braces requires further improvements of ergonomic design and three-dimensional correction, as well as more investigation and rigorous evidence on the long-term treatment outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Full article

Background/Objectives: Cerebral palsy (CP) is one of the most common causes of permanent motor disability in children, and its consequences for upper limb function have a significant impact on the patient’s independence and quality of life. Virtual reality is attracting increasing interest as a modern, engaging and effective method of physiotherapy for children with cerebral palsy. This systematic literature review aimed to synthesize current scientific data on the impact of virtual-reality-based physiotherapy on upper limb function in children with cerebral palsy. Methods: The review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA 2020 guidelines. PubMed, Science Direct, Scopus, Web of Science, Research Gate and Google Scholar databases were searched for studies published between 2010 and 2025. Six original studies meeting the following criteria were included in the analysis: virtual reality therapy, population of children with cerebral palsy, physiotherapy goals related to the upper limb and availability of full text. Results: All included studies demonstrated a positive impact of virtual reality on at least one functional parameter of the upper limb, including range of motion, muscle strength, coordination and manual precision. Task-oriented training, immersive virtual reality environments and home-based therapy supported by remote monitoring proved to be the most effective. The effects were particularly noticeable in children with moderate impairment at GMFCS I–III. Conclusions: Virtual reality represents a safe and promising technology to support upper limb physiotherapy in children with cerebral palsy. It can be used both in clinical and home settings, contributing to increased exercise intensity and motivation. Further long-term studies using high-quality methodology are needed to determine the sustainability of the effects and their impact on everyday living. Full article

The main aim of this study was to analyze the excessive biomass of invasive alien aquatic plants reducing the water quality of a lake which was restored in the past. This study was conducted on Długie Lake (26.8 ha, 17.3 m, Masurian Lake District, northeastern Poland), which was completely degraded by raw wastewater inflow. After the long-term restoration (1987–2003) and recovery of submerged macrophyte meadows, the invasion of Elodea nuttallii—an invasive alien aquatic plant (IAAP)—was observed due to the increasing water temperature in recent years, impairing the functioning, biodiversity, and ecosystem services of this urban lake, as well as causing the deterioration of lake water quality. Therefore, an excessive biomass of E. nuttallii has been removed from the lake since 2022. The analysis of physico-chemical water quality parameters showed that consecutive excessive biomass macrophyte gradual removal (three times during the growing season) helps to limit the excessive growth of E. nuttallii and also removes nutrient loads from the ecosystem. Removing excess aquatic vegetation also helps maintain the lake’s aesthetic and recreational value. Currently, the total phosphorus concentration in lake water did not exceed 0.3 mg P/L and total nitrogen did not exceed 2.0 mg N/L. Chlorophyll a contents oscillated in the range of 5 to 9 µg/L, and Secchi disk visibility exceeded 3 m. Full article

This main focus of this work is the fractional-order nonlinear Schrödinger equation with wave operators. First, a conservative difference scheme is constructed. Then, the discrete energy and mass conservation formulas are derived and maintained by the difference scheme constructed in this paper. Through rigorous theoretical analysis, it is proved that the constructed difference scheme is unconditionally stable and has second-order precision in both space and time. Due to the completely implicit property of the differential scheme proposed, a linearized iterative algorithm is proposed to implement the conservative differential scheme. Numerical experiments including one example with the fractional boundary conditions were studied. The results effectively demonstrate the long-term numerical behaviors of the fractional nonlinear Schrödinger equations with wave operators. Full article

Accurate land use/land cover (LULC) maps generated through cloud computing can support large-scale land management. Leveraging the rich resources of Google Earth Engine (GEE) is essential for developing historical maps that facilitate the analysis of regional LULC dynamics. We implemented the best-performing scheme on GEE to produce 30 m LULC maps for the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration (SPUA) and to detect LULC changes, while closely observing the spatio-temporal trends of landscape patterns during 2004–2024 using the Shannon Diversity Index, Patch Density, and other metrics. The results indicate that (a) Gradient Tree Boost (GTB) marginally outperformed Random Forest (RF) under identical feature combinations, with overall accuracies consistently exceeding 90.30%; (b) integrating topographic features, remote sensing indices, spectral bands, land surface temperature, and nighttime light data into the GTB classifier yielded the highest accuracy (OA = 93.68%, Kappa = 0.92); (c) over the 20-year period, cultivated land experienced the most substantial reduction (11,128.09 km²), accompanied by impressive growth in built-up land (9677.21 km²); and (d) landscape patterns in central and eastern SPUA changed most noticeably, with diversity, fragmentation, and complexity increasing, and connectivity decreasing. These results underscore the strong potential of GEE for LULC mapping at the urban agglomeration scale, providing a robust basis for long-term dynamic process analysis. Full article