Search Results (70)

This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model for offshore wind power, combining CNN, BiGRU, and XGBoost to address the challenges of fluctuating wind speeds and complex meteorological conditions. The model extracts local and temporal features, models nonlinear relationships, and uses residual-driven Ridge regression for improved error correction. Real-world data from a Jiangsu offshore wind farm in 2023 was used for training and testing. Results show the proposed approach consistently outperforms traditional models, achieving lower RMSE and MAE, and R² values above 0.98 across all seasons. While the model shows strong robustness and accuracy, future work will focus on optimizing hyperparameters and expanding input features for even broader applicability. Overall, this hybrid model provides a practical solution for reliable offshore wind power forecasting. Full article

High-speed railway (HSR) is a key transport mode for achieving carbon reduction targets and promoting sustainable regional economic development due to its fast, efficient, and low-carbon nature. Accurate wind speed forecasting (WSF) is vital for HSR systems, as it provides future wind conditions that are critical for ensuring safe train operations. Numerous WSF schemes based on deep learning have been proposed. However, accurately forecasting strong wind events remains challenging due to the complex and dynamic nature of wind. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid network architecture, MHSETCN-LSTM, for forecasting strong wind. The MHSETCN-LSTM integrates temporal convolutional networks (TCNs) and long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) to capture both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends in wind behavior. The multi-head squeeze-and-excitation (MHSE) attention mechanism dynamically recalibrates the importance of different aspects of the input sequence, allowing the model to focus on critical time steps, particularly when abrupt wind events occur. In addition to wind speed, we introduce wind direction (WD) to characterize wind behavior due to its impact on the aerodynamic forces acting on trains. To maintain the periodicity of WD, we employ a triangular transform to predict the sine and cosine values of WD, improving the reliability of predictions. Massive experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method based on real-world wind data collected from sensors along the Beijing–Baotou railway. Experimental results demonstrated that our model outperforms state-of-the-art solutions for WSF, achieving a mean-squared error (MSE) of 0.0393, a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 0.1982, and a coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of 99.59%. These experimental results validate the efficacy of our proposed model in enhancing the resilience and sustainability of railway infrastructure.Furthermore, the model can be utilized in other wind-sensitive sectors, such as highways, ports, and offshore wind operations. This will further promote the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 9. Full article

Accurate wind resource assessment is essential for offshore wind energy development, particularly in nearshore sites where atmospheric stability and internal boundary layers significantly influence the horizontal wind distribution. In this study, we investigated wind estimation methods using a high-resolution, 100 m grid Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and coastal onshore wind measurement data. Five estimation methods were evaluated, including a control WRF simulation without on-site measurement data (CTRL), observation nudging (NDG), two offline methods—temporal correction (TC) and the directional extrapolation method (DE)—and direct application of onshore measurement data (DA). Wind speed and direction data from four nearshore sites in Japan were used for validation. The results indicated that TC provided the most accurate wind speed estimate results with minimal bias and relatively high reproducibility of temporal variations. NDG exhibited a smaller standard deviation of bias and a slightly higher correlation with the measured time series than CTRL. DE could not reproduce temporal variations in the horizontal wind speed differences between points. These findings suggest that TC is the most effective method for assessing nearshore wind resources and is thus recommended for practical use. Full article

This study addresses the dynamic response control of deep-water jacket offshore platforms under typhoon and misaligned wave loads by proposing a Tuned Mass Damper (TMD)-based vibration suppression strategy. Typhoon loading is predicted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate maximum wind speed and direction, a customized exponential wind profile fitted to WRF results, and a spectral model calibrated with field-measured data. Correspondingly, typhoon wave loading is calculated using stochastic wave theory with the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) spectrum. A rigorous Finite Element Model (FEM) incorporating soil–structure interaction (SSI) and water-pile interaction is implemented in the Opensees platform. The SSI is modeled using nonlinear Beam on Nonlinear Winkler Foundation (BNWF) elements (PySimple1, TzSimple1, QzSimple1). Numerical simulations demonstrate that the TMD effectively mitigates dynamic platform responses under aligned typhoon and wave conditions. Specifically, the maximum deck acceleration in the X-direction is reduced by 26.19% and 31.58% under these aligned loads, with a 17.7% peak attenuation in base shear. For misaligned conditions, the TMD exhibits pronounced control over displacements in both X- and Y-directions, achieving reductions of up to 29.4%. Sensitivity studies indicated that the TMD’s effectiveness is more significantly impacted by stiffness detuning than mass detuning. It should be emphasized that the effectiveness verification of linear TMD is limited to the load levels within the design limits; for the load conditions that trigger extreme structural nonlinearity, its performance remains to be studied. This research provides theoretical and practical references for multi-directional coupled vibration control of deep-water jacket platforms in extreme marine environments. Full article

The exploitation of renewable energy is essential for mitigating climate change and reducing fossil fuel emissions. Wind energy, the most mature technology, is highly dependent on wind speed, and the accurate prediction of the latter substantially supports wind power generation. In this work, various artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed and evaluated for their wind speed prediction ability using the ERA5 historical reanalysis data for four potential Offshore Wind Farm Organized Development Areas in Greece, selected as suitable for floating wind installations. The training period for all the ANNs was 80% of the time series length and the remaining 20% of the dataset was the testing period. Of all the ANNs examined, the hybrid model combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks demonstrated superior forecasting performance compared to the individual models, as evaluated by standard statistical metrics, while it also exhibited a very good performance at high wind speeds, i.e., greater than 15 m/s. The hybrid model achieved the lowest root mean square errors across all the sites—0.52 m/s (Crete), 0.59 m/s (Gyaros), 0.49 m/s (Patras), 0.58 m/s (Pilot 1A), and 0.55 m/s (Pilot 1B)—and an average coefficient of determination (R²) of 97%. Its enhanced accuracy is attributed to the integration of the LSTM and GRU components strengths, enabling it to better capture the temporal patterns in the wind speed data. These findings underscore the potential of hybrid neural networks for improving wind speed forecasting accuracy and reliability, contributing to the more effective integration of wind energy into the power grid and the better planning of offshore wind farm energy generation. Full article

Accurately simulating near-surface wind speeds is indispensable for wind energy development, particularly under extreme weather conditions. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a 6 km resolution to evaluate 80 m wind speed simulations over Europe, using the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) as initial and lateral boundary conditions. Two cases were analyzed: a normal case with relatively weak winds, and an extreme case with intense cyclonic activity over 7 days, focusing on offshore wind farm regions and validated against Forschungsplattformen in Nord- und Ostsee (FINO) observational data. Sensitivity experiments were conducted by modifying key physical parameterizations associated with wind simulation to assess their impact on accuracy. Results reveal that while the model realistically captured temporal wind speed variations, errors were significantly amplified in extreme cases, with overestimation in weak wind regimes and underestimation in strong winds (approximately 1–3 m/s). The Asymmetrical Convective Model 2 (ACM2) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme demonstrated superior performance in extreme cases, while there were no significant differences among experiments under normal cases. These findings emphasize the critical role of physical parameterizations and the need for improved modeling approaches under extreme wind conditions. This research contributes to developing reliable wind speed simulations, supporting the operational stability of wind energy systems. Full article

Accurate forecasting of offshore wind speed is crucial for the efficient operation and planning of wind energy systems. However, the inherently non-stationary and highly volatile nature of wind speed, coupled with the sensitivity of neural network-based models to parameter settings, poses significant challenges. To address these issues, this paper proposes an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) optimized by CRGWAA. The proposed CRGWAA integrates Chebyshev mapping initialization, an elite-guided reflection refinement operator, and a generalized quadratic interpolation strategy to enhance population diversity, adaptive exploration, and local exploitation capabilities. The performance of CRGWAA is comprehensively evaluated on the CEC2022 benchmark function suite, where it demonstrates superior optimization accuracy, convergence speed, and robustness compared to six state-of-the-art algorithms. Furthermore, the ANFIS-CRGWAA model is applied to short-term offshore wind speed forecasting using real-world data from the offshore region of Fujian, China, at 10 m and 100 m above sea level. Experimental results show that the proposed model consistently outperforms conventional and hybrid baselines, achieving lower MAE, RMSE, and MAPE, as well as higher R², across both altitudes. Specifically, compared to the original ANFIS-WAA model, the RMSE is reduced by approximately 45% at 10 m and 24% at 100 m. These findings confirm the effectiveness, stability, and generalization ability of the ANFIS-CRGWAA model for complex, non-stationary offshore wind speed prediction tasks. Full article

This study introduces an innovative long-lead-time prediction model for typhoon-induced waves through the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) method along Taiwan’s northwest coast, a region vulnerable to severe coastal hazards due to its exposure to frequent typhoons and ongoing offshore energy development. Utilizing data from 13 typhoons (2001–2024) at the Hsinchu buoy station, the model integrates nine parameters—including significant wave height, typhoon parameters (e.g., wind speed, central pressure), and novel geometric factors like topographic elevation—to enhance forecast accuracy. The proposed WVPDUG model, incorporating forward speed, movement direction, and topography, outperforms traditional approaches, achieving over 60% improvement in RMSE and CC for lead times up to 10 h. A knowledge extraction method (KEM) further unveils the neural network’s internal dynamics, offering unprecedented insight into parameter contributions. This research addresses a critical gap in long-term wave forecasting under complex topographic influences, providing a robust tool for early warning systems and coastal disaster mitigation in typhoon-prone regions. Full article

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to conduct numerical simulations and simulated acquisition of a 30-year (1993–2022) wind field dataset for the Bohai Sea. The simulated WRF wind field is subsequently used to drive the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model, producing a corresponding wave field dataset for the same period in the Bohai Sea. Using these datasets, we analyzed the extreme value distributions of wind speed and significant wave height in the study area. The results reveal that both the annual mean wind speed and significant wave height exhibit a ring-like spatial pattern. The highest values are concentrated in the southern Liaodong Bay to the central Bohai Sea region, with a gradual radial decrease toward the periphery. Specifically, values decline from the center outward, from southeast to northwest, and from offshore to nearshore regions. The Gumbel extreme value distribution is applied to estimate 100-year return period extremes, yielding maximum wind speeds of 37 m/s and significant wave heights of 6 m in offshore areas. In nearshore regions, the 100-year return period wind speeds range between 20–25 m/s, while significant wave heights vary from 2 to 3 m. This study provides important scientific basis and decision-making reference for the design of offshore extreme conditions. Full article

Offshore wind farms play a pivotal role in the global transition to clean energy but remain susceptible to diverse meteorological hazards—ranging from highly variable wind speeds and temperature anomalies to severe oceanic disturbances—that can jeopardize both turbine safety and overall power output. Although Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) have a longstanding track record in operational forecasting, this study leverages and extends their capabilities by introducing a dynamic HMM framework tailored specifically for multi-risk offshore wind applications. Building upon historical datasets and expert assessments, the proposed model begins with initial transition and observation probabilities and then refines them adaptively through periodic or event-triggered recalibrations (e.g., Baum–Welch), thus capturing evolving weather patterns in near-real-time. Compared to static Markov chains, naive Bayes classifiers, and RNN (LSTM) baselines, our approach demonstrates notable accuracy gains, with improvements of up to 10% in severe weather conditions across three industrial-scale wind farms. Additionally, the model’s minutes-level computational overhead for parameter updates and state decoding proves feasible for real-time deployment, thereby supporting proactive scheduling and maintenance decisions. While this work focuses on the core dynamic HMM method, future expansions may incorporate hierarchical structures, Bayesian uncertainty quantification, and GAN-based synthetic data to further enhance robustness under high-dimensional measurements and rare, long-tail meteorological events. In sum, the multi-risk forecasting methodology presented here—though built on an established HMM concept—offers a practical, adaptive solution that significantly bolsters safety margins and operational reliability in offshore wind power systems. Full article

The intermittent nature of wind speed poses challenges for its widespread utilization as an electrical power generation source. As the integration of wind energy into the power system increases, accurate wind speed forecasting becomes crucial. The reliable scheduling of wind power generation heavily relies on precise wind speed forecasts. This paper presents an extended work that focuses on a hybrid model for 24 h ahead wind speed forecasting. The proposed model combines residual Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and a quantum neural network that is studied by a quantum simulator, leveraging the support of NVIDIA Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA). To ensure the desired accuracy, a comparative analysis is conducted, examining the qubit count and quantum circuit depth of the proposed model. The execution time required for the model is significantly reduced when the GPU incorporates CUDA, accounting for only 8.29% of the time required by a classical CPU. In addition, different quantum embedding layers with various entangler layers in the quantum neural network are explored. The simulation results utilizing an offshore wind farm dataset demonstrate that the proper number of qubits and embedding layer can achieve favorable 24 h ahead wind speed forecasts. Full article

Accurate and comprehensive wind speed forecasting is crucial for improving efficiency in offshore wind power operation systems in coastal regions. However, raw wind speed data often suffer from noise and missing values, which can undermine the prediction performance. This study proposes a systematic framework, termed VMD-RUN-Seq2Seq-Attention, for noise reduction, outlier detection, and wind speed prediction by integrating Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), the Runge–Kutta optimization algorithm (RUN), and a Sequence-to-Sequence model with an Attention mechanism (Seq2Seq-Attention). Using wind speed data from the Shidao, Xiaomaidao, and Lianyungang stations as case studies, a fitness function based on the Pearson correlation coefficient was developed to optimize the VMD mode count and penalty factor. A comparative analysis of different Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) selection ratios revealed that selecting a 50% IMF ratio effectively retains the intrinsic information of the raw data while minimizing noise. For outlier detection, statistical methods were employed, followed by a comparative evaluation of three models—LSTM, LSTM-KAN, and Seq2Seq-Attention—for multi-step wind speed forecasting over horizons ranging from 1 to 12 h. The results consistently showed that the Seq2Seq-Attention model achieved superior predictive accuracy across all forecast horizons, with the correlation coefficient of its prediction results greater than 0.9 in all cases. The proposed VMD-RUN-Seq2Seq-Attention framework outperformed other methods in the denoising, data cleansing, and reconstruction of the original wind speed dataset, with a maximum improvement of 21% in accuracy, producing highly accurate and reliable results. This approach offers a robust methodology for improving data quality and enhancing wind speed forecasting accuracy in coastal environments. Full article

A new ASCAT coastal wind product based on a 12.5 km grid size is presented. The new product contains winds up to the coast line and is identical to the current operational coastal product over the open ocean. It is based on the assumption that within a wind vector cell land and sea have constant radar cross section. With an accurate land fraction calculated from ASCAT’s spatial response function and a detailed land mask, the land correction can be obtained with a simple linear regression. The coastal winds stretch all the way to the coast, filling the coastal gap in the operational coastal ASCAT product, resulting in three times more winds within a distance of 20 km from the coast. The Quality Control (QC), based on the regression error and the regression bias error, reduces this abundance somewhat. A comparison of wind speed pdfs with those from NWP forecasts shows that the influence of land in the land-corrected scatterometer product appears more reasonable and starts not as far offshore as that in the NWP forecasts. The VRMS difference with moored buoys increases slightly from about 2.4 m/s at 20 km or more from the coast to 4.2 m/s at less than 5 km, where coastal wind effects clearly contribute to the latter difference. While the QC based on the regression bias error flags many WVCs that compare well with buoys, the land-corrected coastal product with more abundant coastal winds appears useful for nowcasting and other coastal wind applications. Full article

In the present study, a new geophysical model function (GMF) is developed for the X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) on board the Advanced Satellite with New System Architecture for Observation-2 (ASNARO-2) to retrieve accurate offshore wind speeds. Equivalent neutral wind speeds based on the local forecast model (LFM) are employed as reference wind vectors, and 12,259 matching points from 502 SAR images obtained with horizontal transmitting, horizontal receiving polarization around Japan are collected. To ensure convergence of the calculation, 8129 points are selected from the matching points to determine the basic formula for the GMF and 23 coefficients based on the relationships among the normalized radar cross section, wind speed, incidence angle, and relative wind direction. Compared with the reference wind speeds, the GMF wind speeds showed reproducibility with a bias of −0.10 m/s and an RMSD of 1.37 m/s. Additionally, it can be confirmed that the retrieved wind speed has the bias of 0.03 and the RMSD of 1.68 m/s when compared to the in situ wind speed from the Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) buoy. The accuracy of these retrieved wind speeds is comparable to previous studies, and it is indicated that the developed GMF can be used to retrieve offshore winds from ASNARO-2 images. Full article

Wind energy is highly volatile, and large-scale wind power grid integration significantly impacts grid stability. Accurate forecasting of wind turbine power can improve wind power consumption and ensure the economy of the power grid. This paper proposes a multistep forecasting method for offshore wind turbine power based on a multi-timescale input and an improved transformer. First, the wind speed sequence is decomposed by the VMD method to extract adequate timing information and remove the noise, after which the decomposition signals are merged with the rest of the timing features, and the dataset is split according to different timescales. A GRU receives the short-timescale inputs, and the Improved Transformer captures the timing relationship of the long-timescale inputs. Finally, a CNN is used to extract the information of each time point at the output of each branch, and the fully connected layer outputs multistep forecasting results. Experiments were conducted on operation data from four wind turbines located within the offshore wind farm but not near the edge. The results show that the proposed method achieved average errors of 0.0522 in MAE, 0.0084 in MSE, and 0.0907 in RMSE on a four-step forecast. This outperformed comparison methods LSTM, CNN-LSTM, LSTM-Attention, and Informer. The proposed method demonstrates superior forecasting performance and accuracy for multistep offshore wind turbine power forecasting. Full article