Search Results (10)

Power outages pose considerable risks to the reliability of electric grids, affecting both consumers and utilities through service disruptions and potential economic losses. This study analyzes a historical outage dataset from a Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) to reveal key patterns and trends that suggest outage management strategies. By integrating exploratory data analysis, predictive modeling, and a Large Language Model (LLM)-based interface integration, as well as data visualization techniques, we identify and present critical drivers of outage duration and frequency. A random forest regressor trained on features including planned duration, facility name, outage owner, priority, season, and equipment type proved highly effective for predicting outage duration with high accuracy. This predictive framework underscores the practical value of incorporating planning information and seasonal context in anticipating outage timelines. The findings of this study not only deepen the understanding of temporal and spatial outage dynamics but also provide valuable insights for utility companies and researchers. Utility companies can use these results to better predict outage durations, allocate resources more effectively, and improve service restoration time. Researchers can leverage this analysis to enhance future models and methodologies for studying outage patterns, ensuring that artificial intelligence (AI)-driven methods can contribute to improving management strategies. The broader impact of this study is to ensure that the insights gained can be applied to strengthen the reliability and resilience of power grids or energy systems in general. Full article

During feeder outages in the distribution network, localized power restoration using distribution resources (e.g., PVs) can ensure supply to critical loads and mitigate adverse impacts, especially when main grid support is unavailable. This study presents a power restoration strategy aiming at maximizing the restoration duration of critical loads to ensure their prioritized recovery, thereby significantly improving power system reliability. The methodology begins with load enumeration via breadth-first search (BFS) and utilizes a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to predict microgrid generation output. Then, an adaptive multipoint crossover genetic solving algorithm (AMCGA) is proposed, which can dynamically adjust crossover and mutation rates, enabling rapid convergence and requiring fewer parameters, thus optimizing island partitioning to prioritize critical load demands. Experimental results show that AMCGA improves convergence speed by 42.5% over the traditional genetic algorithm, resulting in longer restoration durations. Compared with other strategies that do not prioritize critical load recovery, the proposed strategy has shown superior performance in enhancing critical load restoration, optimizing island partitioning, and reducing recovery fluctuations, thereby confirming the strategy’s effectiveness in maximizing restoration and improving stability. Full article

In rural and mountainous regions, power supply reliability remains a persistent challenge due to structural vulnerabilities, data incompleteness, and limited automation. In this study, a data-driven methodology is leveraged, wherein a validated machine learning framework comprising Random Forest (RF), Lasso Regression, and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) is applied to analyze outage data. The machine learning models, validated on a held-out test set, demonstrated modest but positive predictive performance, confirming a quantifiable, non-random relationship between grid structure and restoration time. This validation provides a credible foundation for the subsequent feature importance analysis. Through a transparent, consensus-based analysis of these models, the most robust influencing factors were identified. The results reveal that key structural indicators related to network redundancy (e.g., Inter-Bus Loop Rate) and electrical stress (e.g., Peak Daily Load Current, Load Factor) are the most significant predictors of prolonged outages. Furthermore, statistical analyses confirm that increasing structural redundancy and regulating line loads can effectively reduce outage duration. These findings offer practical, data-driven guidance for prioritizing investments in rural grid planning and reinforcement. This study contributes to the broader application of machine learning in energy systems, particularly showcasing a robust methodology for identifying key drivers under data and resource constraints. Full article

The existing literature on power grid reliability extensively examines the effects of individual automation technologies, such as Smart Grids, IoT, and AI, on reducing SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index) and SAIFI (System Average Interruption Frequency Index) indices. However, previous studies have largely focused on partial analyses, often limited to specific aspects of grid operation or isolated case studies. As a result, there is a lack of a comprehensive and integrated theoretical approach that considers the interdependencies between different automation technologies, their impact on various levels of grid management and the economic consequences of their deployment. This study presents a novel theoretical framework aimed at providing a holistic perspective on power grid automation and its impact on energy supply reliability. The key elements of this approach include developing a multidimensional mathematical model that integrates the impact of key automation technologies on SAIDI and SAIFI, allowing for a quantitative assessment of different implementation strategies and applying a probabilistic approach to predict the likelihood of power outages based on the level of automation and real-time grid conditions. This proposed framework offers a holistic view of power grid automation, integrating technical, economic and operational dimensions. It serves as a foundation for further empirical research and the implementation of intelligent grid modernisation strategies, aiming to enhance power supply stability and increase the resilience of distribution networks against outages. The introduced concept aligns with the current challenges of the energy transition, providing utilities and policymakers with analytical tools for making optimal decisions regarding the adoption of digitalisation and automation technologies in the power sector. Full article

In the face of increasing climate variability and the complexities of modern power grids, managing power outages in electric utilities has emerged as a critical challenge. This paper introduces a novel predictive model employing machine learning algorithms, including decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Leveraging historical sensors-based and non-sensors-based outage data from a Turkish electric utility company, the model demonstrates adaptability to diverse grid structures, considers meteorological and non-meteorological outage causes, and provides real-time feedback to customers to effectively address the problem of power outage duration. Using the XGBoost algorithm with the minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) feature selection attained 98.433% accuracy in predicting outage durations, better than the state-of-the-art methods showing 85.511% accuracy on average over various datasets, a 12.922% improvement. This paper contributes a practical solution to enhance outage management and customer communication, showcasing the potential of machine learning to transform electric utility responses and improve grid resilience and reliability. Full article

This paper presents a resilience-oriented energy management approach (R-OEMA) designed to bolster the resilience of networked microgrids (NMGs) in the face of extreme events. The R-OEMA method strategically incorporates preventive scheduling techniques for hydrogen (H2) systems, renewable units, controllable distributed generators (DGs), and demand response programs (DRPs). It seeks to optimize the delicate balance between maximizing operating revenues and minimizing costs, catering to both normal and critical operational modes. The evaluation of the R-OEMA framework is conducted through numerical simulations on a test system comprising three microgrids (MGs). The simulations consider various disaster scenarios entailing the diverse durations of power outages. The results underscore the efficacy of the R-OEMA approach in augmenting NMG resilience and refining operational efficiency during extreme events. Specifically, the approach integrates hydrogen systems, demand response, and controllable DGs, orchestrating their collaborative operation with predictive insights. This ensures their preparedness for emergency operations in the event of disruptions, enabling the supply of critical loads to reach 82% in extreme disaster scenarios and 100% in milder scenarios. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework, seamlessly integrating predictive insights and pre-scheduling strategies. This novel approach contributes to advancing NMG resilience, as revealed by the outcomes of these simulations. Full article

Severe weather conditions not only damage electric power infrastructure, and energy systems, but also affect millions of users, including residential, commercial or industrial consumers. Moreover, power outages due to weather-related natural disasters have been causing financial losses worth billions of US dollars. In this paper, we analyze the impact of power outages on the revenue of electric power suppliers, particularly due to the top five weather-related natural disasters. For this purpose, reliable and publicly available power outage events data are considered. The data provide the time of the outage event, the geographic region, electricity consumption and tariffs, social and economic indicators, climatological annotation, consumer category distribution, population and land area, and so forth. An exploratory analysis is carried out to reveal the impact of weather-related disasters and the associated electric power revenue risk. The top five catastrophic weather-related natural disaster categories are investigated individually to predict the related revenue loss. The most influencing parameters contributing to efficient prediction are identified and their partial dependence on revenue loss is illustrated. It was found that the electric power revenue associated with weather-related natural disasters is a function of several parameters, including outage duration, number of customers, tariffs and economic indicators. The findings of this research will help electric power suppliers estimate revenue risk, as well as authorities to make risk-informed decisions regarding the energy infrastructure and systems planning. Full article

Power system failures or outages due to short-circuits or “faults” can result in long service interruptions leading to significant socio-economic consequences. It is critical for electrical utilities to quickly ascertain fault characteristics, including location, type, and duration, to reduce the service time of an outage. Existing fault detection mechanisms (relays and digital fault recorders) are slow to communicate the fault characteristics upstream to the substations and control centers for action to be taken quickly. Fortunately, due to availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units (PMUs), more event-driven solutions can be captured in real time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for determining fault characteristics using samples of fault trajectories. A random forest regressor (RFR)-based model is used to detect real-time fault location and its duration simultaneously. This model is based on combining multiple uncorrelated trees with state-of-the-art boosting and aggregating techniques in order to obtain robust generalizations and greater accuracy without overfitting or underfitting. Four cases were studied to evaluate the performance of RFR: 1. Detecting fault location (case 1), 2. Predicting fault duration (case 2), 3. Handling missing data (case 3), and 4. Identifying fault location and length in a real-time streaming environment (case 4). A comparative analysis was conducted between the RFR algorithm and state-of-the-art models, including deep neural network, Hoeffding tree, neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, naive Bayesian, and K-nearest neighborhood. Experiments revealed that RFR consistently outperformed the other models in detection accuracy, prediction error, and processing time. Full article

Power outage restoration following extreme storms is a complicated process that couples engineering processes and human decisions. Emergency managers typically rely on past experiences and have limited access to computer simulations to aid in decision-making. Climate scientists predict that although hurricane frequency may decrease, the intensity of storms may increase. Increased damage from hurricanes will result in new restoration challenges that emergency managers may not have experience solving. Our study uses agent-based modeling (ABM) to determine how restoration might have been impacted for 30 different scenarios of Hurricane Sandy for a climate in 2112 (Sandy2112). These Sandy2112 scenarios were obtained from a previous study that modeled how outages from Hurricane Sandy in 2012 might have been affected in the future as climate change intensified both wind and precipitation hazards. As the number of outages increases, so does the expected estimated time to restoration for each storm. The impact of increasing crews is also studied to determine the relationship between the number of crews and outage durations (or restoration curves). Both the number of outages and the number of crews impact the variability in time to restoration. Our results can help emergency managers and policy makers plan for future hurricanes that are likely to become stronger and more impactful to critical infrastructure. Full article

The U.S. electric-power infrastructure urgently needs renovation. Recent major power outages in California, New York, Texas, and Florida have highlighted U.S. electric-power unreliability. The media have discussed the U.S. aging power infrastructure and the Public Utilities Commission has demanded a comprehensive review of the causes of recent power outages. This paper explores geographic information systems (GIS) and a spatially enhanced predictive power-outage model to address: How may spatial analytics enhance our understanding of power outages? To answer this research question, we developed a spatial analysis framework that utilities can use to investigate power-failure events and their causes. Analysis revealed areas of statistically significant power outages due to multiple causes. This study’s GIS model can help to advance smart-grid reliability by, for example, elucidating power-failure root causes, defining a data-responsive blackout solution, or implementing a continuous monitoring and management solution. We unveil a novel use of spatial analytics to enhance power-outage understanding. Future work may involve connecting to virtually any type of streaming-data feed and transforming GIS applications into frontline decision applications, showing power-outage incidents as they occur. GIS can be a major resource for electronic-inspection systems to lower the duration of customer outages, improve crew response time, as well as reduce labor and overtime costs. Full article