Search Results (105)

Slope stability is a critical factor in the mining industry, directly impacting operational safety and economic performance. In large open-pit mines, slope failures can cause work stoppages and significant financial losses. Regions like Mongolia, with their complex topography, irregular geometries, and heterogeneous rock conditions, present a particular challenge for assessing slope stability. Conventional two-dimensional (2D) slope stability analysis and deterministic approaches have limitations in accounting for these complex topographies, irregular pit geometries, and lateral resistance forces. For a large open-pit mine in Mongolia, this study applied three-dimensional (3D) analyses with varying slope widths, using both limit equilibrium and finite element methods, to achieve a more reliable stability assessment under complex topographic conditions. To further enhance the reliability of evaluations under heterogeneous rock mass conditions, probabilistic approaches were employed alongside traditional deterministic methods. This enabled a more accurate estimation of safety factors and the identification of potential failure zones. The comparative study results demonstrate that 3D and probabilistic analyses consistently show 17–20% higher factors of safety and lower probabilities of failure than conventional 2D deterministic analyses. These findings highlight the effectiveness of these advanced methods for reliable slope stability assessment in complex geological conditions. Ultimately, the results underscore the importance of incorporating 3D and probabilistic analyses for more accurate and reliable assessments in complex open-pit mining, thereby contributing to improved safety and optimized operational efficiency. Full article

Conventional unconditional random field (URF) models were shown to neglect in-situ monitoring data and thus misrepresent real slope stability. To address this, a conditional random field (CRF) generator was proposed, in which Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) filtering was coupled with co-Kriging to assimilate site observations. A representative three-bench slope was adopted, and the failure-mode distribution and the statistics of the factor of safety (FoS) produced by the URF, the independent random field (IRF), and the CRF were examined across bedding-dip angles of 15–75° and two cross-correlation states ($\rho$ = −0.2, 0). It was found that eliminating cross-correlation decreased the mean FoS by 0.006, increased its standard deviation by 10.26%, and raised the frequency of low-FoS events from 7.49% to 12.30%. When field constraints were imposed through the CRF, the probability of through-going failure was reduced by 12%, the mean FoS was increased by 0.01, the standard deviation was reduced by 15.38%, and low-FoS events were suppressed to 2.30%. The CRF framework was thus demonstrated to integrate stochastic analysis with field measurements, enabling more realistic reliability assessment and proactive risk management of slopes. Full article

A case study of designing a waste dump was conducted for the iron mine located in the Bulacan area, Philippines. Iron ore mines generate a relatively high amount of waste, and at the study mine, the constrained waste dumping area of 3 hectares necessitated a higher dump design, leading to potential stability issues. Additionally, the waste dump is projected to be situated on an inclined surface; subsequently, there is a concern about dump stability. Therefore, this study aims to find the optimum waste dump design by assessing its stability, and a geometrical configuration was conducted to optimize the bench parameters. Numerical modeling of the finite difference method (FDM) was used to estimate the distribution of the Factor of Safety by simulating several models. Models with steeper base inclinations (>12°) demonstrate progressive instability, as demonstrated by pre-assessment. The statistical analysis results show that the total model simulations with a 45-degree slope angle have a significantly high probability of failure of 38.2%. Whereas models with 35-degree and 40-degree slope angles have probabilities of failure calculated as 0.3% and 6.5%, respectively. Therefore, results suggest that the general slope angle should be kept at 40 degrees or less. Moreover, the results show that an average of 0.02 points drops in FoS for each 2.5 m of increment in dump height. Regarding geometrical setup, four benches with 7.5 m of berm would be preferable for the waste dump design of the case study. Overall, the effect of an inclined surface as a base was discussed, the effect of a gradual increase in dump height was outlined, and the significance of the dump slope angle on dump design was highlighted. Full article

This study presents a stability assessment of rock slopes, considering the joint systems of the rock walls of Wojciech Bednarski Park. Special emphasis was placed on analysing the orientation and infill characteristics of the identified joint sets. Based on archival data and newly conducted geological surveys, stability calculations were performed for eight representative cross-sections corresponding to designated sectors. Numerical analyses were conducted using a finite element method (FEM) programme, based on the actual structure of the rock mass, specifically its discontinuities. This ensured a reliable reflection of the real conditions governing the slope instability mechanisms. Factors of safety were estimated with the Shear Strength Reduction Technique. The results indicate that slope failure is highly unlikely in Sectors 1 and 2 (FS > 1.50), unlikely but not fully meeting the safety criteria in Sector 3 (FS < 1.50), and highly probable in Sectors 4 and 6 (FS << 1.00), where unstable rock blocks and deeper structural slides are anticipated. In Sector 5, failure is considered probable (FS < 1.30) due to rockfalls, unstable blocks, and creeping weathered cover. For Sectors 7 and 8, assuming debris cover above the rock walls, failure is unlikely (FS > 1.50). In contrast, under the assumption of weathered material, it becomes probable in Sector 7 (FS < 1.30), and remains unlikely in Sector 8 (FS > 1.50). Due to the necessity of adopting several modelling assumptions, the results should be interpreted primarily in qualitative terms. The outcomes of this research provide a critical basis for assessing the stability of rock slopes within Wojciech Bednarski Park and support decision-making processes related to its planned revitalisation. Full article

This study presents a probabilistic geotechnical analysis of the Visonta Keleti-III lignite mining area, focusing on the statistical evaluation of soil parameters and their integration into slope stability modeling. The objective was to provide a more accurate representation of the spatial variability of geological formations and mechanical soil properties in contrast to traditional deterministic approaches. The analysis was based on over 3300 laboratory samples from 28 boreholes, processed through multi-stage outlier filtering and regression techniques. Strong correlations were identified between physical soil parameters—such as wet and dry bulk density, void ratio, and plasticity index—particularly in cohesive soils. The probabilistic slope stability analysis applied the Bishop simplified method in combination with Latin Hypercube simulation. Results demonstrate that traditional methods tend to underestimate slope failure risk, whereas the probabilistic approach reveals failure probabilities ranging from 0% to 46.7% across different sections. The use of tailored statistical tools—such as Python-based filtering algorithms and distribution fitting via MATLAB—enabled more realistic modeling of geotechnical behavior. The findings emphasize the necessity of statistical methodologies in mine design, particularly in geologically heterogeneous, multilayered environments, where spatial uncertainty plays a critical role in slope stability assessments. Full article

This study investigates rainfall-induced slope instability in fine-grained clayey soils through a probabilistic and sensitivity analysis framework that integrates spatial variability. Moving beyond traditional deterministic methods, Monte Carlo simulations were employed to quantify uncertainty in geotechnical parameters—unit weight, cohesion, and friction angle—modeled as random fields with a 1 m spatial resolution. This approach realistically captures natural soil heterogeneity and its influence on slope behavior during rainfall events. Transient seepage and slope stability analyses were performed using SEEP/W and SLOPE/W, respectively, with the Spencer method ensuring full equilibrium. This study examined how slope height, inclination, rainfall intensity and duration, and soil properties affect the factor of safety (FS). The results showed that higher rainfall intensity and longer durations significantly increase failure risk. For example, under 9 mm/h rainfall for 48 h, slopes taller than 10 m at 45° inclination exhibited failure probabilities over 30%. At 20 m, FS dropped to 0.68 with a 100% probability of failure. Sensitivity analysis confirmed cohesion and friction angle as key stabilizing factors, though their impact diminishes with infiltration. A dataset of 9984 slope scenarios was generated, supporting future machine learning applications for risk assessment and climate-resilient slope design. Full article

The deep sea is gradually being exploited, yet research on the stability of the deep seabed is scarce. In this study, the seafloor stability of the Jiaxie Seamount Group in the western Pacific Ocean was assessed using the weight-of-evidence (WoE) method based on seafloor topographic data. Slope failure features were identified by analyzing multibeam bathymetric data, revealing 21 failure zones and multiple debris accumulation areas. Topographic factors, such as water depth, slope, slope direction, planar curvature, profile curvature, and ruggedness, were selected as assessment indicators. These indicators were reclassified as evidence factors, and a WoE model was constructed to assess the failure probability in the study area. A stability zoning map indicated that over 93% of the area had high stability. In comparison, areas with low and very low stability comprised less than 4%, mainly located on steep ridges and rugged slopes. The model’s performance was validated through an ROC curve, yielding an AUC value of 0.929, indicating a high predictive capability. This study presents a statistical framework for assessing the stability of deep-sea floors and provides theoretical support for upcoming seabed mining and deep-sea engineering endeavors, despite limitations due to data constraints and dependence on visually interpreted slope failure zones. Full article

Landslide risk assessment can quantify the potential damage caused by landslides to disaster-bearing bodies, which can help to reduce casualties and economic losses. It is not only a tool for disaster prevention and mitigation, but also a key step to achieve the coordinated development of the environment, economy, and society, and it provides important support for the realization of the global sustainable development goals (SDGs). In this study, a risk assessment method is proposed for an individual landslide based on the non-probabilistic reliability theory. The method represents an improvement to and innovation in existing risk assessment methods, which can obtain more accurate assessment results with fewer sample data points, refines the methods and steps of landslide risk assessment, and fully considers the destabilization mechanism of the landslide and the interaction with disaster-bearing bodies. A non-probabilistic reliability analysis of the slope was conducted, and the possibility of landslide occurrence was characterized by the failure value of the slope. Moreover, the influence range of the landslide was predicted using empirical formulas; space–time distribution probabilities of the disaster-bearing bodies were estimated by combining their location and activity patterns; and the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing bodies was calculated according to the landslide intensity and the resistance or susceptibility index of the disaster-bearing bodies. The method’s feasibility was verified through its application to the Xiatudiling landslide as a case study. In the process of performing slope stability calculations, it was found that the calculation results of the Monte Carlo method were consistent with those of the non-probabilistic reliability approach proposed in this paper, which was able to obtain more accurate results with less sample data. The personnel life and economic risks were 1.8499 persons/year and CNY 184,858/year (USD 25,448/year), respectively, under heavy rainfall conditions. The results were compared with the risk judgment criteria for geological disasters, and both risk values were unacceptable. After landslide treatment, the possibility of landslide occurrence was reduced, and the personnel life risk and economic risk of the landslide were also reduced. Both risk values then became acceptable. The effect of landslide treatment was obvious. The proposed method provides a new technique for assessing landslide risks and can help in designing mitigation strategies. This method can be applied to landslide risk surveys conducted by geological disaster prevention institutions, demonstrating enhanced applicability in data-scarce regions to improve risk assessment efficiency. It is particularly suitable for emergency management authorities, enabling rapid and comprehensive assessment of landslide risk levels to support informed decision making during critical response scenarios. Full article

A single batch of AlSi10Mg powder was used to fabricate two groups of round bars via horizontal printing, employing an identical strategy except for one parameter in the process of powder bed fusion-laser beam. The parameter is layer thickness, set at 50 and 80 μm for Group-1 and Group-2, respectively, resulting in laser energy densities of 29.95 and 18.72 J/mm³. Both materials exhibit similar microstructures; Group-1 has fewer and smaller defects than Group-2, leading to higher strength and ductility. Fatigue performance of low-cycle and long-life up to 10⁸ cycles under rotating bending was assessed, and the fracture surfaces were carefully examined under scanning electron microscopy. The S-N data converge to a single slope followed by a horizontal asymptote, indicating the occurrence of very-high-cycle fatigue (VHCF) in both cases. Group-1 shows higher fatigue strength in the range of 10⁴ to 10⁸ cycles, and a greater failure probability in VHCF regime than Group-2. This is attributed to the larger defect size in Group-2, where the smaller control volume in rotating bending greatly increases the likelihood of encountering large defects compared to Group-1. At the defect edge, the microstructure shows distinct resistance to crack propagation under high and low loads. Full article

Rainfall is one of the major causes of geological hazards such as landslides and slope failures because it decreases shear strength along the failure surface and increases the driving force of the sliding mass due to the movement of the wetting front in the geological media. Deterministic limit equilibrium methods are typically used to evaluate the stability of slopes in terms of Factor of Safety (FoS), considering the worst-case scenario. However, a coupled flow deformation analysis procedure combined with a probabilistic method is required to consider the temporal and spatial variations in the soil properties due to water infiltration and to evaluate the probability of slope failure. The study aims to develop a probabilistic framework for evaluating the probability of failure of an earth slope using the response surface derived from sample data generated from a coupled flow–deformation finite element (FE) program considering uncertain rainfall characteristics. Finite slopes with 1.5H:1V and 2H:1V slope ratios composed of sandy soil were analyzed considering the possible variations in soil and rainfall parameters. Based on the FE results, a response surface was developed for the FoS as a function of soil and rainfall parameters. The response surface was utilized to generate random scenarios and calculate the failure probability using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The results obtained from the MCS were compared using the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The results indicated that the total probability of failure predicted by MCS was closer to the probability of failure by FORM. The total probability of failure predicted from MSC and FORM were 0.0633 and 0.0640 for the 1.5:1 slope and 0.0249 and 0.0229 for the 2:1 slope, respectively. This level of probability of failure was deemed unsatisfactory to poor based on the criteria by the US Army Corps of Engineers. Therefore, the proposed framework provides a valuable tool from the probabilistic perspective for assessing the performance level of slopes subjected to uncertain rainfall conditions. Full article

To effectively mitigate service slope disaster risks in mountainous areas and enhance the overall safety of highway operations, based on the geological and structural characteristics of slopes, considering slope technical conditions, overall stability, and potential disaster consequences, 25 important influencing factors are systematically identified. The identification process integrates insights from the relevant literature, expert opinions, and historical disaster maintenance records of such slopes. An integrated approach combining Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and Bayesian Networks (BNs) is utilized to conduct a quantitative analysis of the interrelationships and impact strength of factors influencing the disaster risk of mountainous service highway slopes. The aim is to reveal the causal mechanism of slope disaster risk and provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and prevention strategies. Firstly, the relationship matrix is constructed based on the relevant prior knowledge. Then, the reachability matrix is computed and partitioned into different levels to form a directed graph from which the Bayesian network structure is constructed. Subsequently, the expert’s subjective judgment is further transformed into a set of prior and conditional probabilities embedded in the BN to perform causal inference to predict the probability of risk occurrence. Real-time diagnosis of disaster risk triggers operating slopes using backward reasoning, sensitivity analysis, and strength of influence analysis capabilities. As an example, the earth excavation slope in the mountainous area of Anhui Province is analyzed using the established model. The results showed that the constructed slope failure risk model for mountainous operating highways has good applicability, and the possibility of medium slope failure risk is high with a probability of 34%, where engineering geological conditions, micro-topographic landforms, and the lowest monthly average temperature are the main influencing factors of slope hazard risk for them. The study not only helps deepen the understanding of the evolutionary mechanisms of slope disaster risk but also provides theoretical support and practical guidance for the safe operation and disaster prevention of mountainous highways. The model offers clear risk information, serving as a scientific basis for managing service slope disaster risks. Consequently, it effectively reduces the likelihood of slope disasters and enhances the safety of highway operation. Full article

This paper presents a new algorithm for assessing the reliability of three-dimensional (3D) slope stability considering the spatial variability of soil based on the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. First, a 3D random field is generated using the Karhunen–Loève (K-L) expansion method. Then, the simplified Bishop method of limit equilibrium is coupled with the PSO algorithm to calculate safety factors of the slope. Finally, the failure probability of the slope is determined using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. After validating the rationality of the proposed method through a typical case study, this paper offers an in-depth examination of how soil spatial variability affects the stability of 3D slopes. It is observed that, given identical soil correlation lengths, slope geometric parameters, and failure surface widths, the failure probability is positively correlated with soil spatial variability parameters, while the mean safety factor demonstrates an inverse relationship with these variability parameters. Additionally, the failure probability tends to increase as the soil correlation lengths increase, and it also escalates with the expansion of the failure surface width. In contrast, the mean safety factor exhibits an upward trend with the augmentation of the horizontal correlation length, while it diminishes progressively as the vertical correlation length grows, and it also shows a decline with the widening of the failure surface width. The proposed algorithm significantly improves computational efficiency while ensuring accuracy, making it suitable for the reliability analysis of three-dimensional slopes. Full article

In probabilistic slope stability analysis, soil depth has been treated as a deterministic variable, although it is a highly variable parameter. This study aims to identify soil depth variability using seismic refraction survey data and to analyze its impact on probabilistic analysis of slope stability. Seismic refraction survey data were collected from 70 slopes in South Korea and employed to identify the variability of soil depth within natural slopes. As a result, the average soil depth across 70 slopes was 2.5 m, with an average coefficient of variation (COV) of 29%, indicating high variability. To investigate the influence of soil depth variability on the probability of slope failure, probabilistic slope stability analysis was conducted by considering the shear strength parameters of soil and soil depth as random variables. Accordingly, the influences of the variability of soil depth on the probabilistic analysis of slope stability were evaluated by comparing the probability of slope failure and distribution of the failure occurrence frequency by depth. Additionally, global sensitivity analysis was conducted to understand the relative contribution of input parameters on the probability of slope failure. Consequently, the probability of slope failure can vary significantly depending on soil depth variability, emphasizing the importance of considering this factor in probabilistic slope stability analysis. Full article

Unsupported excavations are frequently performed in several geological and geotechnical projects, particularly for constructing roads and railways, and they are often carried out in different materials. The design of such cuts in soils needs the determination of representative values of its mechanical properties, particularly of the strength parameters, and the application of adequate safety factors. The procedure should ensure a sustainable design of those cuts, allowing for economical solutions that guarantee a low probability of geological–geotechnical failure. This paper assesses the reliability of unsupported cuts in soils, under drained conditions, assuming a Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion. Statistical meshes are generated considering the spatial variability of the friction angle and of the true effective cohesion, which are assumed to be uncorrelated. In this process, typical values of the coefficients of variation and of the horizontal and vertical scales of fluctuation are applied. Soil characterisation is simulated in each statistical mesh, and the characteristic values of the strength parameters are determined using statistical methods. Unsupported cuts of different heights and inclinations are designed using typical safety factors. Slope stability analyses are carried out using Random Finite Element Limit Analysis. The uncertainty in the actions is considered, and the probability of failure is determined by direct reliability analysis. The results show the relevance of the ratio between the scale of fluctuation and the excavation depth, the slope inclination, and the characteristic value of the soil strength parameters on the probability of failure. Values of adequate safety factors are proposed towards obtaining an appropriate probability of failure, compatible with the sustainable design of the cuts. Full article

Rainfall-triggered landslides generally pose a high risk due to their sudden initiation, massive impact force, and energy. It is, therefore, necessary to perform accurate and timely hazard prediction for these landslides. Most studies have focused on the hazard assessment and verification of landslides that have occurred, which were essentially back-analyses rather than predictions. To overcome this drawback, a framework aimed at forecasting landslide hazards by combining UAV remote sensing and numerical simulation was proposed in this study. A slow-moving landslide identified by SBAS-InSAR in Tianjin city of northern China was taken as a case study to clarify its application. A UAV with laser scanning techniques was utilized to obtain high-resolution topography data. Then, extreme rainfall with a given return period was determined based on the Gumbel distribution. The Particle Flow Code (PFC), a discrete element model, was also applied to simulate the runout process after slope failure under rainfall and earthquake scenarios. The results showed that the extreme rainfall for three continuous days in the study area was 151.5 mm (P = 5%), 184.6 mm (P = 2%), and 209.3 mm (P = 1%), respectively. Both extreme rainfall and earthquake scenarios could induce slope failure, and the failure probabilities revealed by a seepage–mechanic interaction simulation in Geostudio reached 82.9% (earthquake scenario) and 92.5% (extreme rainfall). The landslide hazard under a given scenario was assessed by kinetic indicators during the PFC simulation. The landslide runout analysis indicated that the landslide had a velocity of max 23.4 m/s under rainfall scenarios, whereas this reached 19.8 m/s under earthquake scenarios. In addition, a comparison regarding particle displacement also showed that the landslide hazard under rainfall scenarios was worse than that under earthquake scenarios. The modeling strategy incorporated spatial and temporal probabilities and runout hazard analyses, even though landslide hazard mapping was not actually achieved. The present framework can predict the areas threatened by landslides under specific scenarios, and holds substantial scientific reference value for effective landslide prevention and control strategies. Full article