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37 pages, 1876 KB  
Article
Analysis of the Impact of Thermal and Electrical Energy Storage Solutions Coupled with PV and CSP Plants in Microgrids
by Gabriella Ferruzzi and Raffaele Liberatore
Energies 2026, 19(10), 2327; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19102327 - 12 May 2026
Abstract
This study analyzes the impact of thermal and electrical storage solutions coupled with Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants, proposing an innovative model to test a Hybrid Energy Storage System (HESS). The work presents an innovative Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) [...] Read more.
This study analyzes the impact of thermal and electrical storage solutions coupled with Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants, proposing an innovative model to test a Hybrid Energy Storage System (HESS). The work presents an innovative Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model to determine the optimal configuration and operational strategy of a HESS within a grid-connected Microgrid (MG). The research focuses on the synergistic integration of PV with Lithium-ion Electrical Energy Storage (EES) and CSP with Thermal Energy Storage (TES). The MG includes dynamic residential, commercial, and hospital loads. The MILP model is optimized over a 24 h horizon across four season-representative days, utilizing a multi-criteria objective function that balances economic performance and CO2 emissions via a weighting factor ω ∈ [0,1]. Three distinct CSP options such as Parabolic Trough Collectors with varying Heat Transfer Fluids (molten salt or thermal oil) and TES types (direct and indirect dual-tank, or Phase Change Material) are analyzed, each coupled with a Rankine or Organic Rankine Cycle. Key constraints address energy balances, component efficiencies, power limits, and storage dynamics. The comprehensive results identify the most suitable technology portfolio mix and optimal hour-by-hour operational rules, providing transparent decision-making criteria based on storage size, process temperatures, and specific demand profiles. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section A1: Smart Grids and Microgrids)
27 pages, 1035 KB  
Article
Exploring Barriers to Residential Heat Pump Adoption: A UK Case Study of User Behaviour
by Lin Gao, Philip Naylor, Abdelrahman Hegab and Pericles Pilidis
Energies 2026, 19(10), 2312; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19102312 - 11 May 2026
Viewed by 74
Abstract
With heat pump adoption falling behind expectations, the UK faces a strategic challenge in meeting residential decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the barriers hindering adoption through an in-depth case analysis of a complete household heat pump adoption journey in a pre-Second World War [...] Read more.
With heat pump adoption falling behind expectations, the UK faces a strategic challenge in meeting residential decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the barriers hindering adoption through an in-depth case analysis of a complete household heat pump adoption journey in a pre-Second World War family home in the UK. Combining an autoethnographic approach with quantitative analysis of 4.7 years of household data, it provides a rare, detailed examination of consumer experience in the UK. The analysis applies both rational and relational perspectives, showing that relational factors, such as trust and social networks, are particularly influential in early-stage markets. Key challenges are identified in retrofit system complexity, social engagement, installer capability and electricity pricing. Although the initial assessment found the heat pump was uneconomic, post-installation results showed an annual SPF of 3.22, a 59% reduction in energy demand and a 12% reduction in costs compared with a gas boiler. Behavioural adaptation contributed to demand reduction and lowered the effective electricity price by ~3 pence/kWh. However, a further 7 pence/kWh reduction is required to reach cost parity with a gas boiler, implying an electricity-to-gas price ratio of 2.3. The findings highlight important areas for policy intervention. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section C: Energy Economics and Policy)
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22 pages, 3120 KB  
Article
Integrated Sustainability and Cost–Benefit Assessment of Rooftop Urban Heat Island Mitigation Measures Considering Temporal Characteristics and Seasonal Trade-Offs in Osaka, Japan
by Natsu Terui and Daisuke Narumi
Sustainability 2026, 18(10), 4722; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18104722 - 9 May 2026
Viewed by 149
Abstract
Urban heat island (UHI) mitigation is essential for improving urban sustainability by reducing heat stress, energy demand, and climate-related health risks. This study evaluates three rooftop measures—highly reflective roofs (HR), green roofs (GR), and rooftop water sprinkling (WR)—in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, using an [...] Read more.
Urban heat island (UHI) mitigation is essential for improving urban sustainability by reducing heat stress, energy demand, and climate-related health risks. This study evaluates three rooftop measures—highly reflective roofs (HR), green roofs (GR), and rooftop water sprinkling (WR)—in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, using an integrated assessment framework. Temperature changes induced by each measure were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and linked to energy consumption and health impacts through temperature sensitivity coefficients. Health impacts were quantified using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and all impacts were monetized for cost–benefit analysis. All measures reduced summer outdoor air temperatures, although their temporal and seasonal effects differed. HR and WR mainly produced daytime cooling, whereas GR provided stronger nighttime cooling. HR and GR increased residential energy consumption due to higher winter heating demand, while WR avoided this penalty through seasonal operation. All measures reduced office and commercial energy consumption and improved health impacts, with GR and WR producing larger benefits than HR. WR achieved the highest benefit–cost ratio, followed by GR and HR. These findings emphasize temporal characteristics, seasonal trade-offs, and spatial targeting in UHI policy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Green Building)
36 pages, 2503 KB  
Article
Investigation into the Energy Performance of Commercial Buildings Using Envelope Thermal Transfer Value (ETTV) with Green Elements
by Azharul Karim, Mahmudul Hasan, Shahida Begum and Sabrina Fawzia
Buildings 2026, 16(10), 1875; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16101875 - 8 May 2026
Viewed by 133
Abstract
The reduction in energy demand in buildings through the adaptation of energy-efficient strategies is attracting significant attention from the research community. In this context green building concepts can contribute towards achieving national sustainable development goals (SDGs) and NetZero targets. Given the substantial energy [...] Read more.
The reduction in energy demand in buildings through the adaptation of energy-efficient strategies is attracting significant attention from the research community. In this context green building concepts can contribute towards achieving national sustainable development goals (SDGs) and NetZero targets. Given the substantial energy demand associated with heating and cooling in commercial and residential buildings, enhancing energy efficiency has become essential for achieving sustainable development, particularly amid ongoing global energy challenges. The Envelope Thermal Transfer Value (ETTV) model has been established as a simplified method of calculating building loads; however, its integration with green building elements remains limited, particularly in subtropical climates. Furthermore, the combined effects of living walls, green façades, and green roofs on building energy performance have not been comprehensively investigated. In this study, an extensive experimental investigation was conducted using prototype buildings under controlled conditions to evaluate the thermal performance of green elements. Modified ETTV formulations incorporating green envelope systems have been developed, and the thermodynamic effects of these green elements on the building energy performance have been analysed. The results demonstrate that integrating green elements significantly reduces thermal heat gain and cooling energy demand. Specifically, a combination of a living wall on a west facing wall and a green roof could reduce the thermal heat gain by up to 30%. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Building Energy, Physics, Environment, and Systems)
25 pages, 2202 KB  
Review
Numerical Modeling and Simulation of Solar Water Heating Systems for Enhanced Thermal Performance: A Review
by Oluwaseyi O. Alabi, Oluwatoyin J. Gbadeyan and Oludolapo A. Olanrewaju
Solar 2026, 6(3), 23; https://doi.org/10.3390/solar6030023 - 8 May 2026
Viewed by 156
Abstract
Solar Water Heating Systems (SWHS) are increasingly recognized as vital technologies for reducing dependence on conventional energy sources and supporting sustainable thermal energy solutions. This study reviews recent advancements in the numerical modeling and simulation of SWHS, with a particular focus on improving [...] Read more.
Solar Water Heating Systems (SWHS) are increasingly recognized as vital technologies for reducing dependence on conventional energy sources and supporting sustainable thermal energy solutions. This study reviews recent advancements in the numerical modeling and simulation of SWHS, with a particular focus on improving heat transfer efficiency and overall system performance. The primary aim is to evaluate how Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and other simulation approaches accurately predict thermal behavior, fluid flow characteristics, and energy storage dynamics. The study identifies key objectives, including the analysis of critical design parameters, collector geometry, material properties, working fluid selection, and operating conditions, and their impact on thermal efficiency. This review integrates heat transfer, fluid dynamics, and energy storage within a unified numerical modeling framework. The current study also emphasizes advanced simulation techniques, including multi-physics analysis and optimization to enhance prediction accuracy and reduce computational cost. The outcomes indicate that validated numerical models provide reliable performance predictions under varying operating conditions and facilitate the development of high-efficiency, cost-effective SWHS for residential, commercial, and industrial applications. The findings also outline future research directions, including transient analysis, experimental validation, and advanced optimization frameworks, thereby contributing to the next generation of solar thermal technologies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Solar Thermal and Solar Chemical Conversion)
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17 pages, 669 KB  
Article
Environmental Radon Exposure and Inflammatory Responses in Children and Adolescents: Evidence from a High-Radon Region in Kazakhstan
by Anel Lesbek, Yasutaka Omori, Meirat Bakhtin, Tomisato Miura, Shinji Tokonami, Polat Kazymbet, Danara Ibrayeva, Nursulu Altaeva, Baglan Kazhiyakhmetova, Elena Saifulina, Aigerim Shokabayeva, Elvira Mussayeva, Yelshenbek Mulkat and Yerlan Kashkinbayev
Biomedicines 2026, 14(5), 1045; https://doi.org/10.3390/biomedicines14051045 - 4 May 2026
Viewed by 723
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas and the leading source of natural radiation exposure worldwide; however, its systemic biological effects in children remain poorly understood. This study examined the association between cumulative indoor radon exposure and inflammatory biomarkers among children residing [...] Read more.
Background/Objectives: Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas and the leading source of natural radiation exposure worldwide; however, its systemic biological effects in children remain poorly understood. This study examined the association between cumulative indoor radon exposure and inflammatory biomarkers among children residing in rural communities of the Aqmola region in Kazakhstan. Methods: The study included 87 children and adolescents (42 exposed and 45 controls). Radon exposure was measured in residential and school environments, and a composite Radon Exposure Index (REI) was constructed to estimate cumulative exposure over time. Serum concentrations of inflammatory biomarkers, including C-reactive protein (CRP), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and interleukin-8 (IL-8), were measured using validated immunoassay methods. Multivariable linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, pubertal development stage, and heating type were used to evaluate associations between REI and biomarker levels. Results: Children and adolescents living in the radon-exposed community had significantly higher REI values than controls (7.75 ± 0.85 vs.4.83 ± 0.41, respectively). Among the biomarkers examined, CRP, TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-8 and IL-6 were not significantly associated with radon exposure. Conclusions: These findings do not support the use of the evaluated inflammatory biomarkers as indicators of early biological effects of environmental radon exposure in this population. However, the clear exposure contrast observed between study settings underscores the ongoing public health relevance of radon as an environmental hazard. Continued efforts to monitor and mitigate radon exposure in high-risk regions remain essential, particularly in environments where children spend substantial amounts of time. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Molecular and Translational Medicine)
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35 pages, 7521 KB  
Article
Urban Renewal as a Passive Heat Adaptation Strategy: Distance–Decay and Spatial Extent of Microclimate Effects in High-Density Subtropical Cities
by Wen-Yung Chiang, Yen-An Chen, Vincent Y. Chen, Wei-Ling Tsou, Chien-Hung Chen, Hsi-Chuan Tsai and Chen-Yi Sun
Atmosphere 2026, 17(5), 470; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17050470 - 2 May 2026
Viewed by 212
Abstract
Urban areas in subtropical regions are increasingly exposed to heat stress as climate change intensifies extreme heat events. In high-density cities, urban renewal is widely implemented to upgrade aging building stock, yet its potential role as a passive heat adaptation strategy remains insufficiently [...] Read more.
Urban areas in subtropical regions are increasingly exposed to heat stress as climate change intensifies extreme heat events. In high-density cities, urban renewal is widely implemented to upgrade aging building stock, yet its potential role as a passive heat adaptation strategy remains insufficiently understood, particularly for projects below environmental impact assessment thresholds. This study examines how urban renewal influences neighborhood-scale microclimates through a comparative analysis of six residential renewal cases using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Pre- and post-renewal scenarios are evaluated to assess changes in wind environment and thermal conditions, with a particular focus on the spatial extent and distance–decay characteristics of renewal-induced effects. The results reveal a consistent distance–decay pattern of microclimate responses across all cases. The influence of urban renewal is strongest within 0–50 m, remains detectable up to approximately 100 m, and diminishes substantially beyond 100–150 m, indicating a clear neighborhood-scale impact radius. Ventilation performance improves systematically following renewal, while thermal responses are more heterogeneous. Localized cooling of up to 1.5 °C is observed in selected cases, whereas others exhibit negligible temperature change despite enhanced airflow. These findings demonstrate that improved ventilation alone does not guarantee thermal mitigation. Instead, thermal outcomes depend on the interaction between airflow, solar exposure, and surface thermal properties. Urban renewal can therefore function as a form of passive heat adaptation when morphological changes are coordinated with shading and surface design strategies. By quantifying the spatial limits of renewal-induced microclimate effects, this study provides empirical evidence for integrating microclimate considerations into neighborhood-scale planning. The identified influence radius offers a practical reference for climate-responsive urban renewal, particularly in high-density subtropical cities where incremental redevelopment plays a dominant role. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Adaptation to Heat and Climate Change)
16 pages, 5313 KB  
Article
Toxicity Screening of Wildfire-Impacted Residential Soils Using a Multi-Stress Escherichia coli Bioluminescent Bioreporter Panel
by Liron Saar Makrabi, Gal Carmeli, Abraham Abbey Paul and Robert S. Marks
AppliedChem 2026, 6(2), 30; https://doi.org/10.3390/appliedchem6020030 - 2 May 2026
Viewed by 222
Abstract
Wildfires that destroy residential infrastructure can generate chemically complex soil contamination; however, post-fire screening is often limited and does not directly reflect biological hazards. Herein, we integrated a multi-stress lux-based whole-cell bioreporter panel of genetically engineered Escherichia coli strains with non-targeted LC-MS [...] Read more.
Wildfires that destroy residential infrastructure can generate chemically complex soil contamination; however, post-fire screening is often limited and does not directly reflect biological hazards. Herein, we integrated a multi-stress lux-based whole-cell bioreporter panel of genetically engineered Escherichia coli strains with non-targeted LC-MS profiling to obtain a mechanism-informed assessment of soils collected from a residential property impacted by the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires. The bioreporter panel resolved heterogeneous and statistically significant stress signatures across the analyzed samples. In particular, extracts from U3–U5 produced selective suppression of the membrane and fatty acid biosynthesis bioreporters, along with reduced growth. In contrast, extract U5 induced a proteotoxic heat-shock response signature. In parallel, non-targeted LC-MS detected 1813 chemical features and enabled the putative annotation of a subset of signals consistent with combustion-derived organics and reactive electrophiles, providing a chemical context for the observed bioassay fingerprints. The integrated workflow provides mechanism-resolved hazard triage within 48 h, as implemented herein (24 h elutriate preparation plus up to 20 h microplate kinetics), supporting the prioritization of hotspots for confirmatory analysis, remediation, and risk assessment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Feature Papers in AppliedChem, 2nd Edition)
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21 pages, 2989 KB  
Article
Energy Performance of Existing Italian Residential Buildings: Retrofitting Scenarios with Hybrid Solutions
by Domenico Palladino, Silvia Di Turi, Iole Nardi and Nicolandrea Calabrese
Buildings 2026, 16(9), 1812; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16091812 - 1 May 2026
Viewed by 328
Abstract
The decarbonization of existing buildings remains a major challenge, particularly in contexts characterized by high energy demand and heating systems based on fossil fuels. While electrification is widely recognized as a key pathway, its direct application is often limited by building and operating [...] Read more.
The decarbonization of existing buildings remains a major challenge, particularly in contexts characterized by high energy demand and heating systems based on fossil fuels. While electrification is widely recognized as a key pathway, its direct application is often limited by building and operating conditions. This study investigates the potential of hybrid heating systems as transitional solutions through a large-scale numerical parametric simulation analysis based on representative models of the Italian residential building stock. The analysis explores the interaction between climatic conditions, system operation, and energy performance under standardized assumptions. The results reveal that hybrid systems achieve significant reductions in non-renewable primary energy (up to 39–44%) and CO2 emissions (approximately 50–58%), primarily through the substitution of natural gas with electricity. Conversely, total primary energy may increase (approximately 2–26%) due to the contribution of renewable energy associated with heat pump operation. Operating cost savings are observed in the 25–40% range, with slight variation depending on climatic conditions. The effectiveness is not uniform, with maximum benefits in intermediate climate zones and reduced performance under more severe conditions. Overall, hybrid systems show stable and reliable performance across heterogeneous building configurations, supporting their role as robust mid-term transition technologies toward building decarbonization. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Building Energy Performance and Simulations)
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35 pages, 21952 KB  
Article
Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Regional Microclimate on Energy Consumption in University Dormitory Complexes and Identification of Key Climatic Factors
by Yimin Wang, Tingwei Meng, Xiaofang Shan and Qinli Deng
Processes 2026, 14(9), 1444; https://doi.org/10.3390/pr14091444 - 29 Apr 2026
Viewed by 144
Abstract
In evaluating energy consumption in building complexes, the influence of urban microclimate variations—primarily driven by the urban heat island (UHI) effect—is often overlooked, leading to modeling inaccuracies. This study develops a numerical simulation framework integrating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and EnergyPlus to [...] Read more.
In evaluating energy consumption in building complexes, the influence of urban microclimate variations—primarily driven by the urban heat island (UHI) effect—is often overlooked, leading to modeling inaccuracies. This study develops a numerical simulation framework integrating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and EnergyPlus to assess the energy consumption of university dormitories while accounting for regional microclimate conditions. This is because university dormitories serve as a key indicator for measuring the type of high-density residential buildings in China. The model incorporates dynamic microclimate variables, including ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and cloud cover, to simulate dormitory energy consumption profiles. Simulation results are validated against measured data, yielding an annual energy consumption error of −1.03%. Quantitative analysis indicates that ignoring the microclimate effect and directly using data from nearby meteorological stations or TMY data has a limited impact on the annual total energy consumption but has a significant impact on seasonal results. To improve the simulation accuracy of building complexes, more attention should be paid to temperature and relative humidity. Moreover, for areas with low occupant density and a high shape coefficient, energy consumption simulation should also consider the local microclimate factors. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances of Computational Heat and Mass Transfer in HVAC Systems)
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19 pages, 1677 KB  
Article
Tariff-Oriented Operation of Residential Air-to-Water Heat Pumps with Thermal Energy Storage: A Long-Term Analysis of Cost Savings and Energy Flexibility
by Matej Đuranović, Marija Živić, Ivan Samardžić and Siniša Bikić
Energies 2026, 19(9), 2151; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19092151 - 29 Apr 2026
Viewed by 169
Abstract
This study investigates the tariff-oriented operation of residential air-to-water heat pump systems integrated with thermal energy storage under long-term real climatic conditions. In contrast to studies based on short-term simulations or advanced predictive control, this work evaluates a simple rule-based control strategy with [...] Read more.
This study investigates the tariff-oriented operation of residential air-to-water heat pump systems integrated with thermal energy storage under long-term real climatic conditions. In contrast to studies based on short-term simulations or advanced predictive control, this work evaluates a simple rule-based control strategy with a focus on practical applicability. The analysis is based on hourly simulations using measured meteorological data over an eight-year period for multiple locations characterized by continental climatic conditions. Two system configurations were considered: a reference system without thermal energy storage and a storage-integrated system operating under a dual-tariff electricity pricing scheme. The results show that thermal energy storage enables effective load shifting toward lower tariff periods, resulting in consistent electricity cost reductions of 19–23% across all analyzed years and locations. These savings are achieved without significant changes in seasonal performance. However, the economic analysis indicates that the payback period remains relatively long (20 years), exceeding typical thresholds for residential investments under current conditions. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of operational flexibility and demonstrate that simple control strategies can improve the economic performance of residential heat pump systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section G: Energy and Buildings)
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28 pages, 6375 KB  
Article
Research on the Impact of Transition Space on the Optimization of Thermal Environment in Community Elderly Indoor Activity Spaces
by Guoying Hou, Xiangzhen Zhu, Ping Shu and Shen Wei
Buildings 2026, 16(9), 1779; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16091779 - 29 Apr 2026
Viewed by 200
Abstract
With growing health awareness and an increasing preference for indoor exercise among the elderly, the demand for community indoor activity spaces is rising in the northern regions of China with cold winters and hot summers. While previous community studies have primarily focused on [...] Read more.
With growing health awareness and an increasing preference for indoor exercise among the elderly, the demand for community indoor activity spaces is rising in the northern regions of China with cold winters and hot summers. While previous community studies have primarily focused on residential buildings, limited attention has been given to indoor activity spaces for the elderly. Moreover, field measurements expose critical thermal deficiencies in these spaces, where indoor temperatures remain substandard in both winter and summer, particularly falling substantially below the WHO health-based threshold (≥18 °C) in winter. Recognizing that transitional spaces are effective for improving indoor thermal conditions, this study explored their potential to enhance the indoor thermal environment, leading to targeted retrofitting schemes. The results showed that although additional transitional spaces effectively enhance the thermal performance, the strategies for winter and summer often conflict. Specifically, enclosed transitional spaces are effective for winter insulation but are prone to overheating in summer, whereas semi-outdoor configurations on the south and west facades are beneficial for summer heat prevention. Based on these findings, optimal retrofitting schemes were identified: for Site A, the existing interior corridor is transformed into a semi-outdoor transitional space; for Site B, an Adaptive Façade system is proposed for the south façade. Furthermore, despite the passive benefits, auxiliary HVAC systems remain necessary to maintain temperatures strictly within the comfort range during extreme weather. This study provides a scientific basis for research on transition spaces and offers a reference for retrofitting buildings in similar climatic regions. Full article
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32 pages, 5657 KB  
Article
Study on MPC Regulation Control Strategy Based on Dynamic Characteristics of Heating Systems
by Xiaoyu Ma, Shuo Ma, Yuanfan Chen, Chenyi Yang, Jiwei Yang and Hongting Ma
Energies 2026, 19(9), 2096; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19092096 - 27 Apr 2026
Viewed by 266
Abstract
Driven by the growing energy demand and severe challenges posed by climate change, reducing the high energy consumption of district heating systems while enhancing their flexibility and operational reliability has become an urgent priority. This study focuses on the heating system of a [...] Read more.
Driven by the growing energy demand and severe challenges posed by climate change, reducing the high energy consumption of district heating systems while enhancing their flexibility and operational reliability has become an urgent priority. This study focuses on the heating system of a residential community in Zhengzhou, China, by developing a joint source-network-load simulation model and proposing a model predictive control (MPC) strategy tailored to the dynamic characteristics of the system. A white-box model of the building complex and heating system was established by coupling EnergyPlus and Modelica. Subsequently, the model was automatically calibrated using actual operational data and the GenOpt optimization tool, which further improved the simulation accuracy and optimal control performance of the model. The results show that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the calibrated secondary network supply water temperature, return water temperature, and indoor temperature decreased by 34.6% and 15.7%, respectively, verifying the effectiveness of the proposed calibration method. Furthermore, the proposed MPC strategy demonstrates significant advantages over conventional control baselines, greatly improving the temperature regulation accuracy and system stability. Compared to the baseline operation without MPC, the proposed strategy increases the user-side thermal comfort index from 56% to 100%, thereby significantly enhancing overall heating quality. Full article
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25 pages, 2804 KB  
Article
Evaluation of a Hybrid Physical–LSTM Model for Air-to-Air Heat Pump Control: Insights from Multi-Day Closed-Loop Simulations in Mediterranean Climate
by Ivica Glavan, Ivan Gospić and Igor Poljak
Modelling 2026, 7(3), 81; https://doi.org/10.3390/modelling7030081 - 24 Apr 2026
Viewed by 427
Abstract
Air-to-air heat pumps are a key technology for improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions in residential buildings, yet their optimal control remains challenging under real-world conditions. This study evaluates the performance of a hybrid physical–LSTM model for controlling an air-to-air heat pump [...] Read more.
Air-to-air heat pumps are a key technology for improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions in residential buildings, yet their optimal control remains challenging under real-world conditions. This study evaluates the performance of a hybrid physical–LSTM model for controlling an air-to-air heat pump in a residential building in Zadar, Croatia. The hybrid framework integrates a first-order energy balance model of the building envelope with LSTM-based temperature correction using adaptive weighting. The physical model was calibrated and validated against 52,128 real IoT measurements collected during the 2024/2025 heating season, achieving high accuracy (RMSE ≈ 0.076 °C). Rolling one-day and continuous multi-day closed-loop simulations (up to 15 days) show that the hybrid model yields slightly lower RMSE in long-term runs compared to the pure physical model. However, this apparent statistical improvement is accompanied by systematic underestimation of indoor temperature and significantly higher simulated energy consumption. The results indicate that the observed effect originates from an implicit virtual heat flux introduced by the LSTM correction, which affects thermodynamic consistency in closed-loop operation. The findings highlight that short-term error metrics such as RMSE alone are insufficient for evaluating hybrid models intended for model predictive control (MPC). The main contribution of this study is the explicit demonstration and quantification of an implicit virtual heat flux generated by the LSTM correction in closed-loop multi-day operation, which leads to misleading statistical improvements while causing significant thermodynamic inconsistency and energy overconsumption. In 15-day continuous simulations the hybrid model (ω = 0.05–0.10) caused an indoor temperature underestimation of 1.25–1.31 °C and increased simulated electricity consumption by more than 300% (316 kWh vs. 72 kWh) compared to the physical model. These results have direct implications for the development of reliable digital twins and model predictive control strategies in residential HVAC systems. Full article
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24 pages, 2463 KB  
Article
Operational Energy and Lifecycle Assessment of Envelope Retrofit Strategies for District-Heated Residential Buildings: Comparison of Expanded Polystyrene and Bio-Based Insulation
by Dimitrije Manić, Mirko Komatina, Jelena Topić Božič and Milica Perić
Processes 2026, 14(9), 1329; https://doi.org/10.3390/pr14091329 - 22 Apr 2026
Viewed by 250
Abstract
Improving the energy performance of existing multi-apartment residential buildings is critical for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Central and Eastern Europe, where large stocks of post-war buildings with limited insulation are connected to district heating systems. This study evaluates façade [...] Read more.
Improving the energy performance of existing multi-apartment residential buildings is critical for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Central and Eastern Europe, where large stocks of post-war buildings with limited insulation are connected to district heating systems. This study evaluates façade insulation retrofit strategies for two representative typologies in Novi Beograd, Serbia—a high-rise tower and an elongated slab-type (‘lamella’) building—using calibrated dynamic energy models and cradle-to-use lifecycle assessment (LCA) over a 50-year service life. Models were calibrated against measured 2023–2024 heating consumption data (NMBE < 1%, CVRMSE < 15%) and normalized with Typical Meteorological Year weather for consistent scenario comparison. Retrofit scenarios applied expanded polystyrene (EPS) and cellulose insulation at 10, 12, and 15 cm thicknesses. Results show that external insulation reduces annual heating demand by approximately 19–20% compared to the uninsulated baseline (192 kWh/m2·a), with the majority of savings achieved at 10 cm and only marginal gains from additional thickness. Insulation thickness has a stronger influence on operational energy reduction than material choice, as differences between EPS and cellulose remain below 0.5%. LCA indicates 23.6–26.0% lower climate change impacts and 23.6–25.8% reduced cumulative energy demand in retrofit scenarios, with cellulose offering modest advantages due to lower embodied emissions and biogenic carbon storage. These findings support targeted envelope retrofits as an effective strategy for decarbonizing district-heated residential buildings in the region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Manufacturing Processes and Thermal Properties of Composite Materials)
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