Search Results (857)

This study examines the long- and short-run determinants of green employment in Saudi Arabia over the period 1990–2024 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework within an error-correction model. Six macroeconomic and structural variables are analyzed: renewable energy capacity, GDP growth, domestic credit, urbanization, foreign direct investment, and the Vision 2030 policy regime shift. Supplementary analyses test the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and map causal relationships using pairwise Granger causality tests. The bounds test indicates long-run cointegration among the variables (F = 8.45, exceeding the 5% I(1) critical bound of 3.61). The model explains 89% of the variation in log green employment (R² = 0.89) and passes standard diagnostic tests for serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, normality, and parameter stability. Three correlates of long-run green employment are identified. The post-2016 dummy used to capture the Vision 2030 regime shift is associated with the largest coefficient in the long-run equation (θ = 1.75, p = 0.008), although this estimate should be interpreted with caution because the dummy absorbs all post-2016 changes, including policy effects, the rapid expansion of renewable capacity, broader institutional reforms, and possibly changes in measurement practices. Renewable energy capacity is the primary continuously measurable driver (θ = 0.145, p = 0.018), with Toda–Yamamoto modified Wald tests indicating a bidirectional predictive relationship between investment and employment. Urbanization exerts a significant positive long-run effect (θ = 0.098, p = 0.001). The error correction term (δ = −0.520, p < 0.001) implies equilibrium reversion with a half-life of approximately one year. The EKC hypothesis is not supported in the Saudi context, suggesting that active decarbonization policy—rather than income-driven structural change alone—is needed for environmental improvement. The findings carry implications for Vision 2030 implementation and for other resource-dependent economies undertaking structural green transitions. Full article

Environmental implications of resource dependence remain a central concern for hydrocarbon-based economies undergoing energy transition. Using panel data for GCC countries over 1990–2024 and second-generation econometric techniques that account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, this study identifies a stable long-run relationship between natural resource rents, renewable energy, and CO₂ emissions. The results show that a 1% increase in natural resource rents is linked to a 0.21% rise in CO₂ emissions, highlighting the persistence of carbon-intensive economic structures. By contrast, renewable energy is associated with a 0.15% reduction in emissions, although its environmental contribution remains modest. The interaction effect is negative (−0.048) but only partially robust, indicating that renewable energy weakens, but does not fully offset, the environmental pressure associated with resource dependence. These findings suggest that energy transition in GCC economies remains gradual and structurally constrained, requiring not only renewable expansion but also deeper transformation of hydrocarbon-based growth models. Full article

This study investigates the short-term and long-term impacts of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, foreign capital flows, trade balance and interest rate on stock market performance in Saudi Arabia for the period 1990–2023. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and error correction model (ECM) are employed to empirically examine the short-run and long-run relationships. The ARDL-ECM technique is effective for analyzing cointegration and assessing adjustment processes. Additionally, impulse response function (IRF) analysis based on the vector autoregression (VAR) model, estimated using these macroeconomic indicators, is applied in this paper. This study provides novel insights and addresses emerging gaps in the literature concerning Saudi Arabia as a developing economy. The long-term relationship in the bounds test results confirms its existence. In the long run, inflation and interest rate exert a statistically significant negative effect on stock market performance, while the trade balance has a significant positive impact. GDP and foreign capital inflows do not exhibit statistically significant long-run effects. Short-run dynamics indicate persistence in stock market performance along with significant effects from inflation and interest rate changes, while GDP and foreign capital inflows remain statistically insignificant in the long-run scenario. Forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) results show that approximately 68.5% of the variation in market performance is explained by its own shocks, followed by foreign capital flows (16.3%) and inflation (8.4%). While foreign capital flow does not exhibit statistical significance in the ARDL long-run estimates, its contribution in variance decomposition highlights its role as an important source of external shocks. These findings are relevant to various stakeholders, including investors and policymakers. Additionally, policy emphasis should be placed on controlling inflation and maintaining stable interest rates while improving trade balance conditions. Although foreign capital flow does not show a direct long-run effect, its role in influencing market variability suggests the need for a stable and well-regulated investment environment. Full article

This study investigates the relationship between energy indicators and human development in South Africa over the period 1980–2023, employing a quantitative research design. Using secondary annual time-series data, the study examines the effects of electricity generation, per capita energy consumption, Oil-related fiscal revenue share as a share of total government revenue, and total energy consumption on the Human Development Index. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is employed to assess long-run and short-run relationships, complemented by Error Correction Models (ECM) to capture dynamic adjustments. Unit root and stability tests, including CUSUM and CUSUMSQ, ensure the robustness of the estimations, while Granger causality tests explore predictive linkages among variables. The findings reveal a positive long-run relationship between electricity generation and total energy consumption with human development, highlighting the importance of reliable and broad-based energy utilisation for enhancing welfare outcomes. In contrast, per capita energy consumption and Oil-related fiscal revenue share exhibit negative long-run effects, suggesting inefficiencies in energy use and the fiscal risks associated with reliance on oil-related government revenue. Short-run dynamics indicate that temporary adjustments, such as infrastructure expansion and transitional fiscal spending, can produce immediate but contrasting effects on human development. Granger causality analysis identifies unidirectional predictive relationships from electricity generation and Oil-related fiscal revenue share to human development, while total energy consumption exhibits weak bidirectional causality. Diagnostic tests confirm the model’s reliability and parameter stability over the study period. The results imply that energy policies in South Africa should prioritise efficient and inclusive energy use, ensure effective allocation of energy-related fiscal resources, and complement energy system improvements with broader socio-economic interventions. This study contributes to the understanding of the energy–development nexus in emerging economies, offering evidence-based insights for policymakers seeking sustainable human development. Future research could extend the analysis to provincial or sectoral levels, consider emerging energy technologies, and explore alternative development proxies to capture more nuanced socio-economic dynamics. Full article

This study examines the impact of energy risk on environmental quality in BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) from 2000 to 2024, including economic growth, renewable energy, institutional quality, urbanization and energy usage. Specifically, this study uses Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) under the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to estimate long-run relationships in countries, assessing robustness through Driscoll–Kraay Standard Errors to address heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, and cross-sectional dependence. The empirical findings provide strong support for the EKC hypothesis, as evidenced by the positive and significant coefficient of economic growth and the negative and significant coefficient of its squared term. Energy consumption and urbanization are found to significantly increase environmental degradation, indicating their substantial contribution to emissions. In contrast, renewable energy consumption significantly reduces emissions, highlighting its role in improving environmental sustainability. Importantly, energy risk does not exhibit a statistically significant impact on environmental quality, suggesting that energy security vulnerabilities have not directly translated into measurable environmental effects in the long run across BRICS countries. Institutional quality shows a positive and significant relationship with emissions, implying that governance improvements alone have not yet effectively supported environmental sustainability and decarbonization efforts. Overall, the findings underscore the need for integrated policy frameworks that promote renewable energy adoption, manage urban expansion, and enhance the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms to achieve sustainable environmental outcomes in BRICS economies. Full article

This study examines the dynamic impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) and renewable energy consumption (RENE) on energy security in Egypt from 2000 to 2023. Given the increasing regional instability and Egypt’s strategic pivot toward a green economy, this research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, which is robust for small sample sizes and mixed integration levels. The empirical results provide preliminary evidence of a long-run negative relationship between geopolitical risk and energy security (coefficient: −11.92), suggesting that external political shocks may act as a deterrent to energy stability. Conversely, renewable energy is found to exert an indicative positive influence (coefficient: +1.17) on the energy security index. Notably, these long-run coefficients are significant at the 10% level, implying that while these variables represent emerging structural trends, they remain sensitive to high regional volatility and the evolving nature of the Egyptian energy sector. Diagnostic tests, including Jarque–Bera (0.92) and Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey (0.94) tests, support the model’s reliability, while CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests indicate general parameter stability. The study suggests that while renewable energy integration shows potential for enhancing resilience, its current scale may not yet be sufficient to fully counterbalance the potential pressures of geopolitical shocks. Policy implications point toward the strategic value of “geopolitical hedging” through continued green investment, the expansion of strategic reserves, and the adoption of de-risking financial instruments like Green Sukuk to support long-term energy sovereignty as a precautionary measure. Full article

This paper examines how market-based and geopolitical uncertainty relate to volatility dynamics in innovation-focused equity portfolios across investment horizons. Using daily data from mid-2015 to early-2025 for the VIX, a geopolitical risk index (GPR), and four innovation benchmarks (MSCI Digital Economy, S&P Kensho Moonshots, QQQ, and ARKK), we implement a GARCH–wavelet–VAR connectedness framework, complemented by wavelet coherence evidence. The results show that uncertainty–market dependence is regime dependent and becomes more pronounced at medium and long horizons. Market-based uncertainty (VIX) remains the central contributor to system-wide variance sharing across horizons, while geopolitical risk is comparatively muted in the short run but becomes more relevant over longer horizons. Innovation portfolios are highly exposed to these uncertainty dynamics, with the strongest vulnerability concentrated in the innovation-heavy indices, particularly at longer horizons. Dynamic connectedness further indicates substantial time variation, with persistent connectedness strengthening during major stress episodes. Overall, the findings support frequency-aware risk management and macro-financial monitoring of innovation allocations. Full article

This paper examines the relationship between macroeconomic scale, the structure of energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions in Poland over the period 2000–2023, against the background of the country’s energy transition under European Union (EU) climate policy. The study aims to identify the extent to which gross domestic product (GDP), hard coal consumption, natural gas consumption, and electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES) explain the level of CO₂ emissions in a coal-dependent economy undergoing gradual structural change. The empirical analysis is based on annual data from Statistics Poland and applies two complementary econometric approaches: an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model to capture the baseline relationships and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine short-run dynamics and lagged effects. The OLS results show that the model explains a substantial share of emission variability and that coal consumption is the only statistically significant determinant of CO₂ emissions, with a strong positive coefficient. GDP, natural gas consumption, and RES production do not exhibit statistically significant effects in the baseline specification. The ARDL results indicate that coal has the strongest contemporaneous statistical association with emissions, while also suggesting weak autoregressive properties of the emission system and the absence of statistically significant short-run associations for GDP, gas, and renewables. Sensitivity analysis further shows that coal remains the variable most strongly associated with emission levels, whereas the estimated associations for GDP, gas, and RES are comparatively weak. The findings suggest that, in Poland, emission dynamics are more closely linked to the carbon intensity of the energy mix than to the scale of economic activity itself. The study suggests that effective decarbonization is likely to be associated with a structural reduction in coal dependence, while the emission-reduction potential of renewable energy expansion may become more visible over a longer time horizon. These results have important implications for the design of Poland’s energy and climate policy, suggesting that the success of the transition is closely linked to changes in the structure of energy carriers in a way consistent with economic and infrastructural constraints. Full article

Oil-dependent economies function as complex socio-economic systems in which resource revenues, institutional structures, and investment outcomes are dynamically interlinked. When governance is weak, oil windfalls can trigger reinforcing feedback loops that erode institutional capacity, reduce investment quality, and deepen resource dependence. This paper examines whether governance may function as a system-level regulating mechanism that weakens these self-reinforcing dynamics. We study 13 oil-dependent economies over 2000–2023 using the Incremental Capital–Output Ratio (ICOR)—the investment required to produce one unit of output—as a proxy for system-level capital efficiency. Panel ARDL–PMG estimation, which separates short-run perturbations from long-run equilibrium, shows that oil rents are associated with a higher ICOR in the long run, indicating declining system efficiency. A composite governance index, and anti-corruption capacity in particular, are associated with a substantially lower ICOR and weaken the oil–inefficiency transmission. Notably, anti-corruption is the only governance dimension operating across both temporal scales, functioning as both an immediate corrective mechanism (preventing procurement fraud) and a structural stabilizer (shaping the institutional environment over time). Results are robust across alternative ICOR specifications, supported by Granger causality tests, and stable when any single country is dropped. The findings identify governance—especially anti-corruption capacity—as a critical leverage point for improving system-wide capital efficiency in resource-dependent developing economies. Full article

Purpose: This study examines the asymmetric effects of economic growth, energy consumption, renewable energy, trade openness, and innovation on CO₂ emissions in China and India. It aims to determine whether positive and negative shocks in these variables generate different environmental responses across economies undergoing energy transition. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis employs a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model using annual data from 1990 to 2023. The framework decomposes explanatory variables into positive and negative partial sums to estimate asymmetric long-run and short-run effects. Dynamic multipliers are used to trace adjustment paths, while a symmetric ARDL model serves as a robustness check. Findings: The results reveal strong and persistent asymmetries in China, particularly in energy use, renewable energy, and innovation. Positive energy shocks significantly increase emissions, while reductions produce limited environmental gains, reflecting structural rigidities. Renewable energy reduces emissions asymmetrically, and innovation exhibits direction-dependent effects. In contrast, India shows weaker and more selective asymmetries, with emissions primarily driven by short-run energy demand and limited long-run structural effects. The symmetric model fails to capture these dynamics, confirming the importance of nonlinear modeling. Conclusion: The findings demonstrate that emissions dynamics are nonlinear and country-specific. Asymmetry is more pronounced in structurally advanced economies undergoing energy transition, while developing economies remain demand-driven. These results highlight the need for differentiated and context-specific environmental policies. Full article

This study examines the determinants of creative goods exports within a multidimensional openness framework that integrates trade, cultural, and political openness. Its importance stems from the growing strategic role of the creative economy in international trade and sustainable development, particularly under conditions of deglobalization pressures, re-globalization, and geoeconomic fragmentation. While previous empirical research has largely treated openness dimensions separately, this study argues that their interaction may offer a more accurate explanation of creative export performance. Using unbalanced panel data for 13 countries from the MENA region over the period 2002–2022, the study applies a Panel ARDL model estimated through the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach to identify both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. The analysis focuses on whether political openness reinforces the effects of cultural and trade openness on creative goods exports. The findings reveal a stable long-run relationship among the variables. Cultural openness and political openness exert positive and significant long-run effects on creative goods exports, whereas trade openness does not appear significant in isolation. The interaction between cultural and political openness is positive and significant, indicating that institutional openness enhances the export benefits of cultural integration. By contrast, the interaction between trade and political openness is negative in the long run, suggesting diminishing marginal gains under stronger institutional integration. Overall, the study highlights that the sustainability of creative exports relies more on the interplay between cultural connectivity and institutional quality than solely on trade liberalization. Full article

Coffee-price volatility is a recurrent external shock for Peru’s small open economy, with potentially uneven consequences across sectors. This study evaluates whether global coffee prices and domestic macro-agricultural indicators share stable long-run equilibria and quantifies the transmission of coffee-price shocks to the terms of trade, nominal exchange rate, consumer prices, agricultural GDP, and total GDP. Using a multivariate vector error-correction model identified via Johansen cointegration, and controlling for major global disruptions and ENSO-related seasonality, we trace dynamic effects through impulse-response analysis. The results indicate economically meaningful cointegration, implying that external prices and domestic aggregates are linked by long-run restrictions. A positive coffee-price shock produces heterogeneous real effects: the response of aggregate GDP is modest and short-lived, while agricultural GDP reacts more strongly and persistently. The shock propagates mainly through external and nominal channels—especially the exchange rate and terms of trade—whereas consumer-price pass-through is present but comparatively moderate. These findings contribute to the commodity-shock literature by providing sector-sensitive evidence for an agricultural export shock and by clarifying the mechanisms through which coffee-price movements propagate to domestic activity and prices in a small open agricultural economy. Full article

Rapid expansion in urbanisation, along with the rising demand for energy consumption, has deepened environmental apprehensions among developing economies and intensified their concerns about long-run environmental sustainability. This article examines how urban expansion and rising energy consumption impact environmental sustainability, and whether environmental taxes moderate this relationship, by using a panel of 110 developing countries over the period of 2010 to 2024. To capture both static and dynamic relationships among the variables, we have applied complementary econometric methodologies that allow for cross-country heterogeneity and persistence in emissions. The estimated outcomes show that urban expansion and energy consumption are significantly increasing gas emissions, and this outcome is consistent with the idea that environmental costs of urban-led growth and energy-intensive development. But as we have added environmental taxes as a moderating policy instrument, the positive impact of energy consumption and urbanisation on emissions becomes negative in most specifications. The significant impact of both interaction terms, i.e., environmental taxes and urbanisation, and environmental taxes and energy consumption, across different estimation strategies, suggests that environmental taxation weakens emissions and encourages structural change with rising energy use. Renewable energy consumption and foreign direct investment have significant influences on emissions, emphasising the role of energy structure and investment composition in shaping environmental outcomes, whereas the income effect varies across models. The outcomes of dynamic models also confirm emissions persistence, but over time, environmental taxes reduce the degree of emissions persistence. The estimated outcomes imply that environmental taxes can support a decoupling of urbanisation and energy-driven growth from environmental degradation. Thus, developing countries should balance urban development, energy demand, and environmental sustainability through credible market-based regulations. Full article

This study examines the relationship between manufacturing-specific foreign direct investment (FDI) and manufacturing output in ASEAN-6 countries over the period 2012–2022. While existing empirical studies largely rely on aggregate FDI measures, such evidence may obscure sector-specific mechanisms through which foreign investment affects production capacity and industrial performance. Focusing on manufacturing-oriented FDI allows for a more direct assessment of how sector-targeted investment is associated with industrial resilience and value-added stability, which represent the economic dimension of sustainability considered in this study. Sustained industrial output performance is proxied by manufacturing value added (GDPm) and interpreted as the manufacturing sector’s ability to maintain and expand value added over time amid macroeconomic volatility and external shocks. Using a balanced panel dataset of six ASEAN economies (ASEAN-6) with 66 country-year observations and a fixed-effects specification selected through standard model-selection tests, the results indicate that manufacturing-specific FDI is positively and statistically significantly associated with manufacturing output at the panel-average level. Manufacturing contribution to GDP also exhibits a strong positive association, while exchange rate movements are negatively associated with manufacturing output. Inflation is positively associated with output during the study period and is interpreted as a context-specific co-movement rather than a normative implication for long-run sustainability. To provide additional insight into shock-period dynamics, the analysis compares pre-COVID (2012–2019) and COVID/post-COVID (2020–2022) sub-period estimates. The positive association between manufacturing-oriented FDI and output is more pronounced before the pandemic. It weakens during the pandemic and early recovery years, consistent with supply-chain disruptions and temporarily reduced absorption capacity. The findings highlight the importance of sector-specific FDI, industrial structure, and macroeconomic stability in supporting manufacturing resilience in ASEAN-6 economies. Full article

Manipulation-detection models calibrated in developed markets are routinely applied to frontier economies without validation, yet the institutional conditions that make such tools function as pricing signals are rarely present in those settings. This study provides the first systematic test of the Beneish M-Score and Dechow F-Score as return predictors in Vietnam, a frontier market navigating staged International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) convergence. Apparent negative associations between manipulation scores and excess returns under System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) do not survive panel fixed effects, Fama–MacBeth, or between-firm estimation. Persistent second-order serial correlation confirms that the GMM signal reflects frontier-market return momentum rather than manipulation pricing. By contrast, Big Four audit quality generates a robust cross-sectional return premium, establishing audit credibility as the operative governance channel where regulatory enforcement is absent. Survival analysis further shows that high-risk firms face substantially elevated exit hazards, demonstrating that reporting risk shapes long-run viability even where short-run pricing is absent. These findings constitute an IFRS paradox: Vietnam has adopted the institutional form of international reporting standards while lacking the informational infrastructure to support detection models that function as reliable pricing signals. Governance infrastructure, not standards convergence, is the operative condition for market discipline in frontier settings. Full article