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Search Results (3,223)

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21 pages, 1277 KB  
Article
From Scenic Enclaves to Community Fields: Ice-Snow Tourism and Urban-Rural Integration in Inner Mongolia, China
by Kai Ren, Hongwei Zhang and Binzhuo Ma
Land 2026, 15(4), 604; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15040604 - 7 Apr 2026
Abstract
Ice–snow tourism has become an important development strategy in northern China, but its contribution to urban-rural integration remains uneven. Taking Inner Mongolia as a comparative qualitative case, this study examines how ice-snow tourism can move beyond enclave-oriented development and support inclusive regional development. [...] Read more.
Ice–snow tourism has become an important development strategy in northern China, but its contribution to urban-rural integration remains uneven. Taking Inner Mongolia as a comparative qualitative case, this study examines how ice-snow tourism can move beyond enclave-oriented development and support inclusive regional development. The analysis draws on policy and planning documents, official reports, media materials, and published secondary studies, and compares Hulunbuir and Tongliao through four common dimensions: space, economy, governance, and culture. On this basis, the paper develops a community-field perspective and connects it with an institution–space–human/land coupling lens. The findings show clear differences in developmental tendency rather than two pure types. Hulunbuir exhibits stronger event-led agglomeration, urban service concentration, and branding capacity, but weaker community benefit capture. Tongliao shows stronger village-level benefit retention, collective participation, and cultural subjectivity, but faces limits in scale linkage and resilience. The paper argues that ice-snow tourism should not be understood as a simple trade-off between efficiency and equity. Instead, a coordinated “pole-community-network” pathway is needed to connect regional growth poles, community-centered governance, and networked collaboration across urban and rural nodes. The study contributes to tourism-led regional development research by clarifying how the community field mediates spatial organization, benefit sharing, and local agency in cold-resource regions. Full article
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22 pages, 11272 KB  
Article
Nocturnal Surface Urban Heat Island Dynamics and Climatic Drivers in Bangkok Metropolitan Region: A Decadal Assessment
by Sitthisak Moukomla, Supaporn Manajitprasert, Nichaphat Petchkaew and Phurith Meeprom
Earth 2026, 7(2), 60; https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7020060 - 7 Apr 2026
Abstract
Nocturnal urban heat presents significant but understudied risks within tropical megacities, where high humidity and heat storage in built-up areas prevent nighttime thermal recovery and intensify chronic heat stress. This study investigates the nocturnal surface urban heat island (SUHI) dynamics in the Bangkok [...] Read more.
Nocturnal urban heat presents significant but understudied risks within tropical megacities, where high humidity and heat storage in built-up areas prevent nighttime thermal recovery and intensify chronic heat stress. This study investigates the nocturnal surface urban heat island (SUHI) dynamics in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) over two decades (2003–2023) with a daytime SUHI comparative baseline. We examined long-term thermal variations using MODIS land surface temperature data and Landsat urban–rural classification. The results demonstrate an increase in nighttime land surface temperature (LST) of 0.109, with nocturnal SUHI proving more persistent than its daytime counterpart with a temperature difference as high as 2.0 °C between urban and rural areas during the night. While daytime SUHI peaked at 6.3 °C in April 2011, with the strongest effects during April–May, nocturnal SUHI exhibited less seasonal variability but sustained elevated values throughout the year. Heat-retaining nocturnal hotspots have expanded from central Bangkok to newly developed urban areas. Cross-correlation analysis suggests that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly modulates SUHI anomalies, with maximum cross-correlations for a time lag of 3 months. These results suggest the need for urban adaptation strategies that specifically address nocturnal heat, as well as design strategies such as improved ventilation, high-emissivity materials, green infrastructure allowing evapotranspiration, and cooling centers for vulnerable populations to enhance thermal resilience across the BMR. Full article
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28 pages, 2083 KB  
Article
Agrarian Structure in a Small Island Region: A Typological and Spatial Analysis of Agricultural Systems in Madeira Island
by Matheus Koengkan, José Alberto Fuinhas and Iyabo Olanrele
Sustainability 2026, 18(7), 3545; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18073545 - 3 Apr 2026
Viewed by 302
Abstract
Madeira’s agricultural sector is characterised by pronounced structural heterogeneity, land fragmentation, and increasing socio-economic and environmental pressures. However, comprehensive typological and spatial analyses remain limited, particularly in small island contexts. This study addresses this gap by providing a typological and spatial analysis of [...] Read more.
Madeira’s agricultural sector is characterised by pronounced structural heterogeneity, land fragmentation, and increasing socio-economic and environmental pressures. However, comprehensive typological and spatial analyses remain limited, particularly in small island contexts. This study addresses this gap by providing a typological and spatial analysis of the agrarian structure in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, using 2019 Agricultural Census data. An integrated framework combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) clustering, and Random Forest validation—representing a novel approach in agrarian typology studies—is employed to identify three agricultural models: Intensive Subtropical Agriculture (24.1% of parishes), characterised by small holdings and high labour intensity; Extensive Traditional Agriculture (64.8%), featuring moderate farm size and diversified cropping; and Pasture-based Agriculture (11.1%), dominated by larger farms and low labour input. The results confirm significant structural trade-offs, including a strong inverse relationship between farm size and labour intensity (r = −0.653) and a negative correlation between specialisation and crop diversity (r = −0.673). Spatially, the models exhibit clear territorial differentiation, with subtropical systems concentrated in southern coastal areas and traditional systems prevailing in northern and interior regions. These findings support the hypothesis of a hybrid agrarian transition. Despite relying on cross-sectional data, the results provide a robust basis for targeted and place-based policy design within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) framework. Full article
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21 pages, 1026 KB  
Article
A Spatial and Cluster-Based Framework for Identifying Railroad Trespassing Hotspots
by Habeeb Mohammed, Rongfang Liu and Steven Jiang
Systems 2026, 14(4), 396; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14040396 - 3 Apr 2026
Viewed by 193
Abstract
Rail trespassing remains a persistent safety challenge at the system level in the United States, with a 24% increase in incidents within the last decade (2016–2025). Identifying hotspots proactively is difficult due to limited incident data and strong spatial dependencies within the built [...] Read more.
Rail trespassing remains a persistent safety challenge at the system level in the United States, with a 24% increase in incidents within the last decade (2016–2025). Identifying hotspots proactively is difficult due to limited incident data and strong spatial dependencies within the built environment. This study thus creates a ZIP-code–level geospatial analytics framework to identify current and emerging trespassing hotspots across North Carolina by combining land-use composition, rail exposure metrics, and historical Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) trespassing records. Geospatial layers were integrated within a GIS workflow to derive attributes such as rail miles, grade crossings, population density, and land-use types. Exploratory spatial analysis showed significant clustering of trespassing incidents, with Global Moran’s I indicating positive spatial autocorrelation across multiple neighborhood sizes. Permutation z-scores confirmed non-random hotspot formation along major rail corridors. A k-means clustering method also identified four structural risk environments, and a Composite Risk Index (CRI) was developed from weighted, standardized exposure and land-use variables to quantify latent risk, independent of raw casualty counts. Results indicate that clusters characterized by higher rail infrastructure exposure and mixed land-use environments exhibit the highest CRI values and elevated hotspot probabilities. In contrast, clusters with limited rail infrastructure, including predominantly commercial and rural ZIP codes, show substantially lower risk levels. The findings highlight that trespassing risk is more strongly associated with structural exposure conditions than with isolated historical incident counts. The resulting risk surfaces and hotspots provide an interpretable and scalable framework for statewide safety planning, early hotspot detection, and targeted interventions by transportation agencies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Multimodal and Intermodal Transportation Systems in the AI Era)
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28 pages, 5013 KB  
Article
Forest Transition Under Climate Pressure: Land Use Land Cover Change in the Greater Shawnee National Forest
by Saroj Thapa, David J. Gibson and Ruopu Li
Remote Sens. 2026, 18(7), 1079; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18071079 - 3 Apr 2026
Viewed by 254
Abstract
The Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) of many regional landscapes are changing due to natural effects and anthropogenic activities, impacting biodiversity and ecosystem services. LULC dynamics reflect the altered flow of energy, water, and greenhouse gases, influencing the pillars of sustainability: society, [...] Read more.
The Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) of many regional landscapes are changing due to natural effects and anthropogenic activities, impacting biodiversity and ecosystem services. LULC dynamics reflect the altered flow of energy, water, and greenhouse gases, influencing the pillars of sustainability: society, environment, and economy. Thus, assessing LULC changes is vital for understanding the relationship between nature and society. This study used multi-temporal remotely sensed imagery to examine LULC change between 1990 and 2019 in the context of Forest Transition Theory (FTT) across the Greater Shawnee National Forest (GSNF) area of southern Illinois, USA, using a random forest algorithm, and projecting change to 2050 with a Land Change Model integrated with IPCC temperature and precipitation scenarios. From 1990 to 2019, LULC analysis showed increases in deciduous forest (1.35%), mixed forest (26.40%), agriculture (2.15%), and built-up areas (6.70%), while hay/grass/pasture declined (16.0%). LULC change intensity was highest from 1990 to 2001 (2.35% annually), slowing to 0.23% (2001–2010) and 0.18% (2010–2019). The overall accuracy (OA) of LULC classification ranged from 0.9 to 0.95 at a 95% confidence interval (CI). Projections to 2050 showed consistent increases in built-up areas (17.12–42.61%), water (28.75–39.70%), and hay/grass/pasture (6.23–38.38%), while overall forest cover declined in all scenarios. Deciduous forests decreased by 3.11–19.87% and were replaced by mixed forests in some scenarios (12.45–23.63%), while evergreen forests showed mixed responses, ranging from a decline of up to 17.13% to an increase of 2.90%. The OA of projected LULC ranged from 0.71 to 0.83 (95% CI) across SSP-RCP-based temperature and precipitation scenarios. The results showed that the GSNF broadly follows the FTT framework: forest recovery since 2001 coincided with rural depopulation, slow agricultural expansion, and rising incomes. However, climate change is expected to disrupt this recovery, pushing transitions toward mixed and evergreen forests. Findings demonstrate the importance of integrating remote sensing-based LULC with socio-economic trends and climate adaptation strategies to sustain forests and ecosystem services under future environmental pressures. Full article
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27 pages, 6413 KB  
Article
Multi-Sensor Assessment of the Consistency Between Satellite Land Surface Temperature and In Situ Near-Surface Air Temperature over Malta
by David Woollard, Adam Gauci and Alfred Micallef
Sci 2026, 8(4), 80; https://doi.org/10.3390/sci8040080 - 3 Apr 2026
Viewed by 192
Abstract
This study examines land surface temperature (LST) variability over Malta, a small island in the central Mediterranean, using satellite observations compared with in situ near-surface air temperature (NSAT) measurements. The analysis focuses on the comparison between satellite-derived LST and local atmospheric thermal conditions [...] Read more.
This study examines land surface temperature (LST) variability over Malta, a small island in the central Mediterranean, using satellite observations compared with in situ near-surface air temperature (NSAT) measurements. The analysis focuses on the comparison between satellite-derived LST and local atmospheric thermal conditions for urban and rural land cover types. LST data from Landsat-8, MODIS (Terra and Aqua), and Sentinel-3A and 3B were analysed over a six-month period (September 2024 to February 2025). Monthly morning and evening field campaigns were conducted at 19 monitoring sites distributed across the island, during which NSAT, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction were recorded. Morning comparisons showed strong correlations between satellite-derived LST and in situ NSAT, i.e., Pearson’s correlation coefficient, r, in the range of 0.82–0.85. Landsat-8 exhibited a slight positive bias (+1.04 °C), while MODIS and Sentinel-3 Level-2 products showed negative biases (−3.82 °C and −1.89 °C, respectively). Nighttime comparisons revealed larger negative biases for MODIS (−6.91 °C) and Sentinel-3 (−6.89 °C). After empirical-based harmonisation, these discrepancies were reduced to near-zero mean bias, maintaining strong correlations. Spatial analysis indicated a persistent nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) effect, with urban areas retaining more heat than rural zones. Morning patterns showed seasonal modulation: during late summer and early autumn, rural areas exhibited higher surface temperatures due to sparse vegetation and exposed soils, whereas during cooler months the urban signal became more pronounced as vegetation recovery enhanced rural cooling. Overall, the results demonstrate the usefulness of multi-sensor satellite observations, interpreted alongside ground-based measurements for characterising thermal behaviour in small island environments. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Environmental and Earth Science)
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32 pages, 4516 KB  
Article
Low-Carbon Spatial Planning Strategies for Townships: A Carbon Accounting and Efficiency Evaluation Framework Applied to Fuqiushan Township
by Chun Yi, Yijun Chen, Bin Liu, Zixuan Wang and Xiangjie Zou
Sustainability 2026, 18(7), 3470; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18073470 - 2 Apr 2026
Viewed by 161
Abstract
Driven by the goal of carbon neutrality, low-carbon development in township spaces is essential for sustainable urban–rural growth. This paper employs a carbon accounting methodology, taking Fuqiushan Town in the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone as a case study to develop a detailed [...] Read more.
Driven by the goal of carbon neutrality, low-carbon development in township spaces is essential for sustainable urban–rural growth. This paper employs a carbon accounting methodology, taking Fuqiushan Town in the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone as a case study to develop a detailed carbon measurement inventory at the township scale. Using spatial analysis techniques, it synthesizes multi-source data—including land use, agricultural inputs, and population—to estimate emissions from key sources such as crop cultivation, livestock and poultry breeding, industrial production, and residential activities. The study also evaluates the carbon sequestration capacity of sinks such as woodlands and water bodies, enabling the spatial visualization of both carbon emissions and carbon sinks. Key findings include: (1) Fuqiushan Town exhibits a carbon emission profile characterized by “industrial activities as the primary source, supplemented by agriculture, with additional contributions from residential and transportation sectors,” while forested areas and water bodies serve as core carbon sink zones. (2) An innovative multidimensional indicator system for low-carbon development efficiency was established, consisting of the Low-Carbon Development Efficiency Index in Production, the Daily Life Carbon Responsibility Efficiency Index, and the Ecological Carbon Sink Efficiency Index, which together form a Comprehensive Efficiency Index for Low-Carbon Development. (3) Analysis reveals significant spatial coupling relationships and efficiency differentiation patterns among carbon emissions, industrial structure, energy dependence, and ecological background. Based on dominant carbon emission types, low-carbon efficiency thresholds, and spatial factor interactions, the 17 villages and one forest farm in the township are classified into five zones: “Industrial High-Carbon Transition Zone,” “Agricultural Pollution Reduction and Carbon Emission Reduction Synergy Zone,” “Ecological Low-Carbon Conservation Zone,” “Human Settlements Balanced Development Zone,” and “Ecological Core Zone.” Tailored low-carbon spatial planning strategies for material resources are proposed for each zone. These results offer quantitative support and spatially targeted insights for low-carbon spatial planning in ecologically sensitive townships, contributing to the achievement of objectives such as “carbon reduction and sink increase” and “rural revitalization.” Full article
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26 pages, 2543 KB  
Article
Has Digital Economy Promoted Sustainable Intensification of Cultivated Land Use?
by Jin-Rong Zhang and Hong-Bo Li
Land 2026, 15(4), 586; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15040586 - 2 Apr 2026
Viewed by 251
Abstract
The expansion of China’s digital economy (DE) has begun to reshape agricultural production in ways that extend beyond efficiency gains, raising important questions about its implications for the long-term sustainable intensification of cultivated land use (SCU). Drawing on panel data from 31 provincial-level [...] Read more.
The expansion of China’s digital economy (DE) has begun to reshape agricultural production in ways that extend beyond efficiency gains, raising important questions about its implications for the long-term sustainable intensification of cultivated land use (SCU). Drawing on panel data from 31 provincial-level regions between 2011 and 2023, this study examines how digital development influences cultivated land sustainability from the perspectives of productivity, resource efficiency, and system resilience. The results indicate that digital advancement is closely associated with higher land productivity and more efficient input use, with digital industrialization playing a particularly pronounced role. Its contribution to land system resilience, however, appears more limited, likely because ecological stability and structural risk-buffering mechanisms respond slowly to technological change. Further analysis suggests that agricultural industrialization (AID) and Rural financing capacity (RFC) function as important transmission channels through which digital development shapes land-use outcomes. Notably, the effects are not uniform. The influence of digital development becomes more evident after 2015, when digital infrastructure and policy support deepened nationwide. Regional differences are also apparent: while the eastern region has already absorbed much of the early digital dividend, stronger marginal gains remain possible in central and western China, where agricultural modernization and digital integration are still unfolding. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening rural digital infrastructure, enhancing farmers’ digital capabilities, and improving digitally enabled financial services to support sustainable land use, particularly in less-developed regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Land Socio-Economic and Political Issues)
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30 pages, 11760 KB  
Article
A Multi-Dimensional Indicator Framework for Peri-Urban Area Delineation: Insights from Equal- and AHP-Weighted Models in Java, Indonesia
by Ziyue Wang, Adhitya Marendra Kiloes, Md. Ali Akber, Bagus Setiabudi Wiwoho and Ammar Abdul Aziz
Remote Sens. 2026, 18(7), 1062; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18071062 - 2 Apr 2026
Viewed by 280
Abstract
Peri-urban areas (PUAs), as transitional zones between urban and rural regions, play a critical role in supporting food systems and agricultural livelihoods, yet they are increasingly pressured by rapid urban expansion. Reliable spatial delineation of PUAs remains challenging, as administrative boundaries often fail [...] Read more.
Peri-urban areas (PUAs), as transitional zones between urban and rural regions, play a critical role in supporting food systems and agricultural livelihoods, yet they are increasingly pressured by rapid urban expansion. Reliable spatial delineation of PUAs remains challenging, as administrative boundaries often fail to capture their functional and spatial heterogeneity. This study proposes a multi-dimensional, spatially explicit framework to delineate peri-urban areas using Indonesia as a case study. Eighteen indicators representing six analytical dimensions—land use/land cover, economic, demographic, infrastructural, spatial accessibility, and landscape structure—were derived from remote sensing and GIS-based data sources and integrated into a composite scoring system using equal-weighted and AHP-weighted approaches. The framework was applied to four major cities on Java Island (Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung, and Yogyakarta) to generate continuous peri-urban probability surfaces, which were validated using expert surveys across 25 districts in the Jakarta and Bandung metropolitan areas. The results show that the framework effectively captures the spatial heterogeneity and gradients of peri-urban areas, with the equal-weighted approach exhibiting statistically significant agreement with expert assessments (Pearson’s r = 0.517, p = 0.008; Spearman’s ρ = 0.522, p = 0.008; Kendall’s τ = 0.387, p = 0.008), consistently outperforming the AHP-weighted model across all validation metrics. The proposed approach provides a transferable spatial mapping framework for monitoring peri-urban dynamics in rapidly urbanizing regions using remote sensing and GIS. Full article
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27 pages, 11264 KB  
Article
Consequences of Chilean Neoliberal Policy on Rural Territories: A Case Study of the Rise in Land Transactions in the Commune of Hualaihué (Los Lagos Region)
by Jessica Araceli Barría Meneses
Land 2026, 15(4), 583; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15040583 - 1 Apr 2026
Viewed by 190
Abstract
Chile’s economic development model, which was shattered by the military coup, restructured under the dictatorship, and institutionalised under democracy as a neoliberal model, gave rise to a liberalisation process that affects the country’s natural resources and commercial dynamics and, by extension, places society [...] Read more.
Chile’s economic development model, which was shattered by the military coup, restructured under the dictatorship, and institutionalised under democracy as a neoliberal model, gave rise to a liberalisation process that affects the country’s natural resources and commercial dynamics and, by extension, places society itself at the service of the system. This model, enshrined in the 1980 Political Constitution, was founded on the principles of external openness, private investment, and deregulation. Against this backdrop, this paper examines and analyses the impact of strengthening private ownership over tangible assets on the increase in land transactions in the rural commune of Hualaihué. The research, based on a quantitative and qualitative analysis of land ownership records from 2005, 2015, 2021, and 2022, as well as information from 23 semi-structured interviews with different territorial stakeholders, reveals the impact of territorial commodification in the area of study. The results indicate that the sale of rural land, the increase in land sales, and the reduction in the size of plots acquired since 2021 constitute an emerging and latent problem, which confirms that rural land is undergoing a subdivision process that presents urban development characteristics in certain parts of the commune. This needs to be critically examined to develop urgent, comprehensive planning dynamics, thereby reducing emerging socio-territorial conflicts. Full article
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30 pages, 595 KB  
Review
Rethinking Land Systems Evaluation in Hybrid Physical–Digital Spaces: A Spatial and Stock–Flow Perspective for Urban and Territorial Transitions
by Rubina Canesi and Eugenio Leanza
Land 2026, 15(4), 578; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15040578 - 31 Mar 2026
Viewed by 194
Abstract
Rapid digitalization and artificial intelligence are restructuring land systems by altering the functional relationship between built environments, socio-ecological processes, and territorial capital accumulation. This paper provides a conceptual and literature-based analysis of how hybrid physical–digital infrastructures are reshaping urban–rural interactions, land-use intensity, and [...] Read more.
Rapid digitalization and artificial intelligence are restructuring land systems by altering the functional relationship between built environments, socio-ecological processes, and territorial capital accumulation. This paper provides a conceptual and literature-based analysis of how hybrid physical–digital infrastructures are reshaping urban–rural interactions, land-use intensity, and long-term sustainability conditions. Rather than developing a fully operational measurement model, the study critically examines the limitations of aggregate productivity indicators and existing evaluation frameworks in capturing spatial reorganization processes, capital durability, and long-term dynamics. Building on insights from sustainability economics and socio-ecological systems research, the paper proposes a stock–flow interpretative perspective to better understand the interaction between physical, natural, and intangible capital within evolving land systems. The analysis focuses on three structural drivers of land system transformation: (i) the virtualization of services and the expansion of cyberspace-based infrastructures; (ii) demographic contraction and aging processes affecting land demand and settlement structures; and (iii) capital deepening in energy-intensive digital networks with implications for land–climate interactions. Within this context, particular attention is given to infrastructure life-cycle dynamics, entropy-related capital decay, and the role of artificial intelligence in reshaping labor–land relationships. The paper highlights the need for new evaluation approaches capable of distinguishing between value generated through material land transformation and value emerging from intangible and digital layers. In this sense, it aims to contribute to ongoing debates on land management and spatial planning by outlining a research agenda for the development of spatially grounded, stock–flow-based sustainability metrics. The findings suggest that future land governance and urban development strategies will need to explicitly account for hybrid spatial architectures and their long-term resource and climate implications in order to preserve territorial resilience and intergenerational equity. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Land Systems and Global Change)
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33 pages, 3263 KB  
Article
Sustainable Agricultural Development in China: An Empirical Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Evolution, Regional Differences, and Convergence Mechanisms
by Zhao Zhang, Zhibin Tao and Hui Peng
Land 2026, 15(4), 567; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15040567 - 30 Mar 2026
Viewed by 275
Abstract
With the increasing constraints of resource and environmental factors and the prominent issues of regional development imbalance, how to scientifically measure the level of agricultural sustainable development and reveal its spatial-temporal differentiation patterns has become a key scientific question that urgently needs to [...] Read more.
With the increasing constraints of resource and environmental factors and the prominent issues of regional development imbalance, how to scientifically measure the level of agricultural sustainable development and reveal its spatial-temporal differentiation patterns has become a key scientific question that urgently needs to be addressed in optimizing land use layout and promoting rural revitalization. This study takes the human-land spatial systems coupling theory as the core framework and constructs an evaluation index system for agricultural sustainable development covering five dimensions: economy, society, resources, ecology, and technology. Based on provincial panel data in China from 2001 to 2024, the entropy method is employed to measure agricultural sustainable development, while Dagum’s Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and convergence models are applied to analyze its spatial–temporal evolution. Furthermore, the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) method is introduced to identify multi-factor configurational driving pathways. The results indicate that the overall level of agricultural sustainable development in China shows a steady upward trend, exhibiting a regional gradient pattern characterized by “central region leading, eastern region steadily advancing, and western region gradually catching up”. The overall disparity presents a weak convergence trend, with inter-regional differences as the primary source, although their contribution is gradually declining. The development structure has evolved from regional fragmentation to a more complex spatial interaction pattern. The overall distribution shifts rightward with evident stage-based differentiation, accompanied by significant positive spatial dependence, with “high–high” and “low–low” clustering coexisting over the long term. Convergence analysis shows that σ-convergence exists at the national level. After accounting for spatial effects, significant absolute β-convergence is observed in the eastern and western regions, while the central region does not exhibit significant convergence. Conditional β-convergence further confirms the existence of regional convergence trends, although the convergence speeds vary. The fsQCA results indicate that agricultural sustainable development is not driven by a single factor but by multiple configurational pathways formed through the interaction of various conditions. These findings provide empirical evidence for optimizing agricultural spatial layout, strengthening land factor support, and promoting regionally coordinated agricultural sustainable development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Land Socio-Economic and Political Issues)
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20 pages, 1551 KB  
Article
Unlocking Natural Capital Through Land Tenure Reform and Spatial Reconfiguration: Evidence from the “Spatial-First” Mode in Nanhai, China
by Zhi Li and Xiaomin Jiang
Sustainability 2026, 18(7), 3336; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18073336 - 30 Mar 2026
Viewed by 253
Abstract
Efficiently converting natural capital into economic assets is a critical challenge in urban–rural transformation, yet the interactive mechanism between institutional land reform and physical spatial restructuring remains underexplored. While traditional frameworks emphasize institutional design, this study identifies a “Spatial-First” mechanism where physical reconfiguration [...] Read more.
Efficiently converting natural capital into economic assets is a critical challenge in urban–rural transformation, yet the interactive mechanism between institutional land reform and physical spatial restructuring remains underexplored. While traditional frameworks emphasize institutional design, this study identifies a “Spatial-First” mechanism where physical reconfiguration serves as a spatial mediator to catalyze property rights breakthroughs. Using an entropy-weighted coupling coordination model, we analyzed policy dynamics in Nanhai District, China, a unique “dual-pilot” zone, from 2020 to 2024. The results indicate a nonlinear leap in the Coupling Coordination Degree (D) from 0.100 to 0.978. We interpret this surge as a policy-driven shock during the intensive pilot phase, where substantive spatial integration (0.719) effectively bypassed high transaction costs inherent in collective tenure, outpacing institutional progress (0.281). However, an Ecological Lag was observed; the disproportionately low weighting of the ecological carrier index (7.09%) suggests that current gains are primarily driven by green industrialization rather than the expansion of absolute ecological stock. This study concludes that while spatial tools can effectively unlock natural capital value in the short term, long-term sustainability necessitates a strategic shift from administrative-led economic efficiency to market-based ecological restoration. Full article
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21 pages, 4683 KB  
Article
Projecting Future Land Use Distributions to Enhance Ecosystem Service Value: A Dyna-CLUE Modeling Approach
by Tianhai Zhang, Shouqian Sun, Zhibing Zou, Rong Zhang and Greg Foliente
Land 2026, 15(4), 561; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15040561 - 29 Mar 2026
Viewed by 315
Abstract
Land use change is the most direct factor driving the supply and alteration of ecosystem services. This study employed the Dyna-CLUE tool to simulate future land use distributions under two scenarios—the Constrained Trend (CT) and Optimized Target-driven (OT) scenarios—based on land use data [...] Read more.
Land use change is the most direct factor driving the supply and alteration of ecosystem services. This study employed the Dyna-CLUE tool to simulate future land use distributions under two scenarios—the Constrained Trend (CT) and Optimized Target-driven (OT) scenarios—based on land use data from 2010. Subsequently, their corresponding ecosystem service values (ESVs) were calculated, with the simulation outcomes revealing distinct land use layouts under each scenario. Under the CT scenario, grassland and urban areas expanded, whereas farmland and water bodies declined, reflecting a trend of urbanization at the expense of rural landscapes. In contrast, the OT scenario demonstrated a cessation of built-up land expansion, accompanied by marked increases in forest and water coverage, changes that facilitated the restoration of coastal watersheds, enhancing wetland provision and improving overall ESV. Consequently, per capita ESV increased substantially—from 1751 CNY in 2018 to 2356 CNY, matching the 2010 level—primarily due to the conversion of grasslands and farmlands into forests and wetlands. The OT scenario also improved the spatial distribution of ESVs, forming interconnected ecological zones around urban areas. The results underscore that policies restraining built-up expansion, promoting afforestation, and restoring wetlands can significantly improve ecosystem services and contribute to sustainability. Full article
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21 pages, 29754 KB  
Article
Land Use Structure Evolution in Resource-Based Cities: Drivers and Multi-Scenario Forecasting—Evidence from China’s Huaihai Economic Zone
by Yan Lin, Binjie Wang and Liyuan Zhao
Land 2026, 15(4), 555; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15040555 - 27 Mar 2026
Viewed by 412
Abstract
Resource-based cities face unique land use challenges due to resource dependence and path lock-in, yet the driving mechanisms and future trajectories of their land use transitions remain underexplored. This study examines the Huaihai Economic Zone (HEZ), a representative coal-rich region in eastern China, [...] Read more.
Resource-based cities face unique land use challenges due to resource dependence and path lock-in, yet the driving mechanisms and future trajectories of their land use transitions remain underexplored. This study examines the Huaihai Economic Zone (HEZ), a representative coal-rich region in eastern China, to analyze land use changes from 2000 to 2023 and simulate 2036 scenarios under different development pathways. Using land use transfer matrices, dynamic degree metrics, and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, we systematically identified spatiotemporal evolution patterns, quantified the contributions of driving factors, and projected multi-scenario future land use patterns. Results reveal that land use change in the study area was dominated by the conversion of cultivated land to construction land, alongside spatial restructuring from a monocentric to a polycentric network pattern. Notably, construction land expansion was least evident in the central Mining-Affected Zone, where land use changes remained relatively sluggish compared to other sub-regions. Driving factor analysis indicates that socio-economic factors primarily influenced changes in construction and cultivated land, while natural factors strongly affected ecological land and unused land. Multi-scenario simulations for 2036 demonstrate diverging trajectories: an urban development scenario would accelerate cultivated land loss and unused land expansion; a natural development scenario would maintain current pressures; and an ecological protection scenario would effectively curb urban sprawl while actively promoting ecological land recovery. This study concludes that transcending simple land use control to actively orchestrate “mining-urban-rural-ecological” spatial synergy is critical for achieving a sustainable transition in resource-based regions facing similar transformation pressures. Full article
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