Search Results (1,700)

Mediterranean low-pressure systems or cyclones are responsible for many extreme events affecting the region. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of Mediterranean cyclones from 1940 to 2024 using high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data. This study implements a detection algorithm based on geopotential height minima on three different pressure levels (1000 hPa, 850 hPa and 700 hPa). Cyclone tracks in this study are constructed by linking identified low-pressure centers at successive time steps using a nearest neighbor tracking algorithm. The number of cyclones at 1000 hPa is filtered by matching them with upper levels and restricting them within 150 km from the coast, covering the entire Mediterranean region, which we divided into three subregions: the western Mediterranean, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea. Seasonal analysis was performed for winter (December–February), spring (March–May), summer (June–August), and autumn (September–November). Our results have recorded 39,933 individual cyclone tracks, where the majority (25,265 cyclones; 63.3%) are short-lived (24–72 h). Regionally, the western Mediterranean has the highest cyclone density, followed by the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. While there is only a small increase in total numbers, a notable increase in cyclone activity is observed during the summer months, particularly in August, with a statistically significant rise of 18.4% since 1980 across the whole Mediterranean region. In the western Mediterranean, this August intensification was even 23.8%. As a result of this, the annual peak of cyclone activity has shifted from May/June to August. Full article

The vulnerability of many Pacific communities is impacted by rising sea levels and exposure to extreme weather patterns. This qualitative research study was conducted with focus groups of Māori and Pacific youth in Aotearoa New Zealand. I am a Pacific researcher, and I examine research and report on findings from Pacific youth focus groups. Employing a Talanoa methodology, a key question posed was how educators in Aotearoa New Zealand supported the wellbeing of Pacific youth in the face of increasing climate extremes within their schools and communities. Engaging a Pacific values framework, this discussion emphasizes the critical role of teachers and education in eliminating concerns, working collectively, listening respectfully, and collaborating with Pacific youth in confronting the complexity of issues surrounding climate change, thereby creating a shift from a position of despair and helplessness to a place of hope and optimism. Findings from the study reveal that, in the education sector, climate change is not well addressed, teachers could do more to acknowledge and address climate crises faced in the Pacific region in the curriculum, and little attention is paid to the wellbeing of Pacific youth facing climate change in the Pacific. An implication is that teachers need to support Pacific youth and understand that education about climatic variance affects Pacific learners’ wellbeing. Full article

Coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and vulnerable to climate change, sea-level rise, and rapid urbanization. However, many landscape ecological risk assessments are limited by fixed scales and assumptions of spatial uniformity. This study develops a geomorphology-based framework to analyze coastal ecological risk. Using multi-source data from 1980 to 2020, the optimal analytical scale was identified as 120 m (grain) and 1000 m (extent). An integrated approach combining OPGD, XGBoost–SHAP, and restricted cubic spline (RCS) models was applied to examine risk patterns and driving mechanisms across four coastal types in Guangdong, China. The results show that the importance and interactions of driving factors vary significantly among geomorphic types, with clear nonlinear responses. Key statistical thresholds were identified, indicating ranges where risk sensitivity changes, including NDVI ≈ 0.624 in the Hilly Ria Coast, slope ≈ 2.8° in the Platform Ria Coast, elevation ≈ 14.5 m in the Barrier–Lagoon Coast, and GDP ≈ 1644.65 × 10⁶ CNY/km² in the Estuarine Delta Coast. These findings provide quantitative evidence for understanding spatial heterogeneity and the nonlinear dynamics of coastal ecological risk, and offer practical references for adaptive management. Full article

The electrical system is a crucial infrastructure of modern society. It provides the energy needed for society to continue its development. However, this critical infrastructure is increasingly threatened by the extreme weather events driven by the escalating climate crisis, posing significant challenges to sustainable development and energy security. Therefore, it is important to conduct comprehensive risk analyses of the electrical system to prepare for future challenges. This paper presents an electrical risk assessment conducted within the European project ICARIA, aiming to evaluate the effects of global climate change on critical infrastructure resilience. The study improves on the first risk assessment conducted, evaluating the electrical system’s vulnerability to flooding events, such as heavy rains or rising sea levels, in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona. A key contribution to this research is the integration of direct impact assessments and cascading effect analyses, which identify how localised failures in electrical assets can spread throughout the system, potentially leading to a blackout. The research focuses on modelling various flood projections, using extreme weather scenarios and return periods ranging from 1 to 100 years. These projections are employed to evaluate the risk assessment methodology and quantify potential impacts on the electrical grid, including Expected Annual Damage (EAD) and Energy Not Supplied Cost (ENSC). The results aim to provide policymakers and grid operators with valuable insights, enabling the development of data-driven adaptation strategies and climate-resilient infrastructure planning to mitigate the risks posed by extreme weather events. Full article

Since the 1960s, research on sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence has grown significantly; however, comprehensive syntheses remain limited. This study presents a systematic review of 2171 publications spanning 1964–2025, combining a global perspective with a regional focus on the Gulf of Guinea, a critically underrepresented region within the African continent. The results show a steady increase in publications, exceeding 80 per year since 2015. A combined bibliometric and content analysis approach was adopted, integrating large-scale metadata analysis with an in-depth evaluation of 166 full-text studies corresponding to 311 study sites. Bibliometric analyses highlight four main themes: (1) factors driving SLR and subsidence, including climate, geophysical, and human effects; (2) monitoring methods such as tide gauges, GPS, and InSAR-based land motion tracking; (3) impacts on coastal communities, and ecosystems; and (4) strategies for adaptation and mitigation. A comparative assessment of global research output and Low-Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) exposure reveals a marked spatial mismatch, with critically vulnerable regions, such as the Gulf of Guinea, remaining significantly underrepresented (44 studies). The synthesis identifies key conceptual, methodological, and practical research gaps. Addressing these gaps requires holistic frameworks that integrate SLR and subsidence, long-term monitoring networks, advanced modeling, and evidence-based adaptation strategies. By linking bibliometric evidence with the interpretation of research trends and gaps, this study provides an analytical basis for supporting monitoring strategies, coastal planning, and adaptive responses. Additionally, the results highlight priority directions for future research directions in the Gulf of Guinea region. Full article

Understanding the development characteristics and controlling factors of organic-rich shales in carbonate platform settings is essential for predicting their distribution and assessing their natural gas exploration potential. However, the mechanisms governing the accumulation of such shales in these specific sedimentary environments remain poorly constrained, and the lack of integrated petrological and geochemical studies limits accurate evaluation of their resource potential. The key objective of this study is to investigate the development characteristics and formation mechanisms of organic-rich shales within intraplatform depressions. To address this objective, we conducted a comprehensive petrological and geochemical analysis of the Cambrian Shuijingtuo Formation organic-rich shale deposits deposited in a carbonate platform setting, particularly from Well EYY3 in Western Hubei, Central Yangtze region. The obtained results indicate that total organic carbon (TOC) contents in the Shuijingtuo Formation can reach up to 4.77%, with a thickness of approximately 9.5 m for shales containing over 2% TOC. Vertically, TOC content exhibits a rapid increase at the base, followed by a gradual decline toward the top, reflecting the evolution of depositional environments. The characteristics of organic-rich shale indicate a significant presence of carbonate minerals, which increase in concentration, alongside tuff lenticular bodies and lithological transition surfaces between tuff and shale. While the longitudinal variation of SiO₂ content in shale is subtle, there is a slight increase in land-sourced clasts and excess silica, and TOC has a significant positive correlation. At the base of the Shuijingtuo Formation, redox parameters, including U-EF and Mo-EF, display a rapid increase followed by a gradual decrease. Conversely, changes in Ni-EF, which indicate paleoproductivity, are less pronounced, and their correlation with TOC is relatively poor. These findings suggest that rapid sea-level rise associated with Cambrian transgressions was the main factor influencing organic matter enrichment in the carbonate platform depressions. This rise supplied nutrients and silica-rich organisms, altering the biological landscape and fostering anoxic conditions in the intraplatform depressions, promoting organic-rich shale formation. As sea levels declined, water circulation became restricted, leading to oxidation of shallow water bodies, decreased paleoproductivity, and shale deposits transitioned to tuff. Therefore, organic-rich shale can also be developed on carbonate platforms, with its formation primarily controlled by fluctuations in sea level. During highstand periods, intraplatform depressions may serve as favorable zones for shale gas exploration. Full article

The once-extensive coastal forested wetlands (CFWs) of the Mississippi River Delta (MRD) are declining under the combined pressures of pervasive hydrologic change, unregulated harvesting, relative water level rise (due to the combination of geological subsidence and sea-level rise—SLR), and climate change. We synthesize here over 50 years of research conducted in the MRD to examine the history of the CFWs and their management, their ecosystem functions and services, and the nature, extent, and severity of ongoing changes. Seedling recruitment failure and increasing salinity levels are the most immediate threats to forest persistence, necessitating management that restores hydrologic function and sediment and nutrient supply to allow seedling survival and minimizes saltwater intrusion. Collectively, the evidence indicates that managed inflows can bolster accretion and sustain forest function, and long-term resilience requires hydrologic restoration at landscape scales coupled with site-level actions that secure recruitment and address local degradation trajectories. These include freshwater and sediment introduction, protection from herbivory, and, in some cases, planting. Our research findings have important implications for worldwide CFWs, and tidal freshwater ecosystems in general, which occur mainly in tropical deltas. Full article

Previous research has found an association between PM_2.5 exposure and worsening depression; however, studies specifically examining the harmful effects of individual PM_2.5 components are relatively limited. This national survey enrolled individuals aged 45 and older in mainland China, collecting personal data and assessing depression. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10). Monthly exposure to PM_2.5 and its seven components—black carbon (BC), organic matter (OM), nitrate (NO₃⁻), sulfate (SO₄²⁻), ammonium (NH₄⁺), soil particles (SOIL), and sea salt (SS)—was matched to each participant’s residence. Linear mixed-effects models (LMEs) assessed the association between single pollutants and depression score, while weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression examined the effect of mixed exposure and identified the contribution of each component. Modifying effects of social activity and green space were also evaluated. A total of 9725 participants were included. In single-exposure models, each interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM_2.5 (29.18 μg/m³), BC (2.25 μg/m³), OM (7.18 μg/m³), SOIL (6.04 μg/m³), and SS (0.14 μg/m³) was significantly associated with an increase in depression score of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.20), 0.71 (95% CI: 0.42, 1.09), 0.94 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.26), 0.51 (95% CI: 0.38, 0.63), and 0.53 (95% CI: 0.33, 0.73) points, respectively. In mixed-exposure models, each IQR increase in the mixture of all components was associated with a 1.104-point rise in depression score (95% CI: 0.901, 1.307), with BC having the largest weight (33.6%), followed by SOIL (28.59%) and SS (25.05%). The harmful effects of PM_2.5 and specific components on depression were lower among those who participated in social activities or lived in areas with higher levels of green space (p < 0.05). These findings suggest that the harmful effects of PM_2.5 on depression may be influenced by its components, and that social activity and green space could reduce the risk of depression associated with PM_2.5 and its components. Full article

Metro Manila, one of the world’s most densely populated megacities, is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise because of its low-lying deltaic location, frequent tropical cyclones, and rapid anthropogenic subsidence caused mainly by groundwater extraction. This study brings together historical tide-gauge records from the Port of Manila (PSMSL) with the Sixth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, adding in vertical land motion (VLM) and sea-level fingerprints to work out local relative sea-level (RSL) changes. Assuming a constant subsidence rate, cumulative VLM reaches ~0.785 m by 2100 and ~1.289 m by 2150. When you factor in climatic contributions (amplified 10–20% by fingerprints, especially under high-emission scenarios thanks to far-field Antarctic ice-loss effects in the western Pacific), projected RSL ranges from 1.09–1.42 m (SSP1-2.6) to 1.51–2.00 m (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, and from 1.70–2.28 m to 2.41–3.54 m by 2150. Results show that 7.95–11.15 km² (1.2–1.8% of land area under SSP5-8.5) could face permanent inundation, mostly in Malabon (~18%), Navotas (~20%), and Manila (~7%). Our conservative estimates (permanent ocean-connected flooding, excluding existing aquaculture areas) come in much lower than earlier mid-century projections of up to a 30% area affected. All this will worsen chronic tidal flooding, erosion, saltwater intrusion, and risks to millions in low-lying districts. We urgently need integrated adaptation, better groundwater regulation, and a mix of nature-based and engineered solutions. Full article

Extreme sea levels along the Mexican coasts pose an increasing risk to coastal infrastructure and communities, particularly under the combined influence of tropical cyclones and ongoing sea-level rise. This study analyzes tide-gauge records from the Mexican Pacific and Gulf of Mexico–Caribbean coasts to characterize the statistical behavior and seasonal modulation of extreme sea-level residuals. Astronomical tides were removed through harmonic analysis to isolate the meteorological residual associated with storm-driven processes. Extreme events were evaluated using complementary extreme-value frameworks, including Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions applied to monthly maxima and a Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) approach applied to the continuous residual series with temporal declustering and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) fitting. While both approaches consistently capture regional patterns, the POT–GPD framework is adopted as the primary basis for return-level estimation due to its explicit representation of event-scale extremes. The results reveal marked regional variability. Pacific stations exhibit bounded or near-Gumbel behavior (ξ ≈ −0.30 to −0.02) and a strong seasonal concentration of extremes during the tropical cyclone season. In contrast, Gulf of Mexico–Caribbean stations display higher absolute extremes and a broader seasonal footprint, with Veracruz showing a tendency toward heavier-tailed behavior (ξ ≈ 0.13). Return levels for a 25-year return period range from approximately 0.85–0.95 m in the Pacific to about 1.7 m in Veracruz. Longer return periods (e.g., 100 years) exceed 2.2 m in Veracruz but are associated with substantial uncertainty due to record-length limitations. The analysis of ENSO variability indicates that ENSO acts primarily as a secondary modulator of background sea-level variability rather than a deterministic driver of extreme events, with the largest anomalies typically associated with tropical cyclone activity. Overall, the results demonstrate that extreme sea levels along the Mexican coasts are governed by region-specific forcing and tail behavior requiring localized extreme-value modeling strategies. The proposed framework provides a robust and reproducible baseline for coastal hazard assessment and supports the integration of sea-level rise into future risk and design analyses. Full article

Porphyra suborbiculata exhibits strong heat tolerance and has considerable commercial potential under rising sea temperatures; however, its bioactive components remain insufficiently explored. In this study, a heat-tolerant new strain of P. suborbiculata (PS-M4), cultivated by the College of Fisheries, was used as the experimental material. Polysaccharides were extracted using an ultrasound-assisted composite enzymatic method, and extraction conditions were optimized through single-factor experiments and response surface methodology, yielding a maximum extraction yield of 12.45 ± 0.09%. Crude polysaccharides were further purified using a purification apparatus, yielding two fractions, designated PSP-I and PSP-II. Preliminary structural characterization showed that PSP-I possessed a weight-average molecular weight (Mw) of 26.149 kDa, a number-average molecular weight (Mn) of 11.267 kDa, and a polydispersity index of 2.321. Monosaccharide composition analysis indicated that PSP-I was predominantly composed of galactose. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) revealed typical polysaccharide functional groups, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis revealed a porous lamellar morphology. In vitro cell-based assays demonstrated that PSP-I significantly alleviated ultraviolet B (UVB)-induced damage in HaCaT cells by reducing intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels, enhancing antioxidant enzyme activities, inhibiting apoptosis, and downregulating the expression of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). These results suggest that PSP-I has potential as a functional ingredient for mitigating UVB-induced skin damage. Full article

This study presents a city-scale physical coastal vulnerability assessment of the 21 km Monrovia coastline (Liberia) using a multi-parameter coastal vulnerability index (CVI). Nine physical parameters—geology/geomorphology, shoreline change rate, elevation, slope, bathymetry, wave height, tidal range, relative sea level rise, and coastal landform characteristics—were integrated within an equal-weight ranking framework. The results identify spatially concentrated high vulnerability segments associated with low elevation, sandy geomorphology, and persistent shoreline retreat. The CVI represents a relative exposure screening rather than a predictive risk model. Limitations related to parameter weighting, classification dependency, and temporal heterogeneity are acknowledged. The findings support preliminary spatial prioritization for coastal adaptation planning Full article

Extreme hydrometeorological events are occurring more often under climate change, increasing the risk for cities in coastal zones and lower river reaches. Such areas are prone to compound flooding (CF), where flood duration and magnitude are amplified by the combined effects of storm surges, onshore winds, long-term sea-level rise, and increasingly frequent rainfall-driven floods. This study assesses the socio-economic risk of residential neighbourhoods (RNs) along the lower reach of the Danė River in the city of Klaipėda, Lithuania, using a composite socio-economic risk index (CSERI) developed in this study under an extreme flood scenario, if the sea level in the south-eastern Baltic Sea rises by 1 m by the end of the century. The results show a strong relationship between water levels in the Klaipėda Strait and the lower reach of the Danė River, confirming a CF regime, where flood magnitude is driven by the interaction between strait water level and river discharge. The CSERI is based on five risk sub-indices (SIs): the building risk SI, road infrastructure risk SI, population risk SI, economic entities risk SI, and cultural heritage risk SI. The assessment identifies RNs at greatest risk under climate change and anthropogenic pressure and indicates priority areas for adaptation measures to reduce potential socio-economic losses. The proposed CSERI provides a practical decision-support tool for sustainable and climate-resilient urban development in coastal cities. Full article

A remote analysis of coastal sedimentation in northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa, describes how summer runoff and winter wave-action operate within a highly variable climate. Despite rising sea levels, the sediment flux can sustain beaches under certain conditions. Daily satellite red-band reflectivity and ocean–atmosphere reanalysis datasets were studied over the period of 2018–2025. Statistical results indicate that streamflow discharges are spread northward by oblique wave-driven currents. Sediment concentrations peak during late winter (>1 mg/L, May–October) when deep turbulent mixing (>40 m) mobilizes sand from the seabed. A case study from September 2021 revealed that ridging high-pressure/cut-off low weather patterns can simultaneously increase streamflow, wave energy, and wind power, creating a surf-zone sediment conveyor along the coast of northern KZN. Long-term climate diagnostics from 1981 to 2025 reveal upward trends in coastal runoff, vegetation, and turbidity (0.29 σ/yr) that point to an increasingly vigorous water cycle. The warming of the southeast Atlantic intensifies the sub-tropical upper-level westerlies and late winter storms over southeast Africa. These processes occur in 5–8 year cycles and drive shoreline advance and retreat, from accretion ~1 T/m and storm surge inundations up to 5.5 m. Using Digital Earth, it was noted that ~1/4 of beaches around Africa are gaining sediment while ~1/3 are eroding. Although remote information could not close the sediment budget, realistic estimates of long-shore transport in the surf-zone (>10⁴ kg/yr/m) and on the beach (>10³ kg/yr/m) were calculated. These provide an emerging explanation for the resilience of northern KZN beaches, as sea levels rise at a rate of 0.6 cm/yr. Full article

Escalating climate volatility, particularly the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), poses severe operational and financial risks to corporate sustainability in the energy sector. However, quantitative evidence regarding how macro-level climate shocks transmit to micro-level operational performance remains scarce. Integrating dynamic capability and social network theories, this study analyzes a panel of 103 Chinese listed energy firms (2005–2022) using System GMM, mediation, and moderation models. The results indicate that ENSO intensity significantly impairs performance; specifically, a 1 °C rise in sea surface temperature anomalies decreases firms’ return on assets (ROAs) by 0.142%. We identify supply chain resilience as a critical strategic mechanism for climate adaptation, where response capacity acts as the dominant mediating channel, while recovery capacity functions as an independent compensatory mechanism. Conversely, supply network complexity—across horizontal, vertical, and spatial dimensions—amplifies the negative impact of climate disruptions by hindering resource mobility. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that state-owned enterprises exhibit stronger institutional resilience, and firms in southern regions partially offset impacts through hydropower advantages. This study bridges climate science with operations management, offering strategic guidance for managers to configure resilient, sustainable supply chains capable of withstanding environmental turbulence. Full article