Search Results (1,157)

This study investigates the determinants of farmers’ intention to convert to organic farming, focusing on the role of perceived territorial capital in rural Paraguay. Despite increasing demand for sustainable agricultural systems, the adoption of organic farming remains uneven, particularly in developing countries. Existing literature has mainly examined economic, socio-demographic, and psychological factors, while the role of territorial context has received less attention. The analysis relies on primary data collected through a structured survey of 167 conventional farmers across four Paraguayan departments. A logistic regression model is used to evaluate the effect of different dimensions of territorial capital—environmental, institutional, economic, and infrastructural—together with socio-economic and organisational characteristics, on farmers’ intention to convert within the next five years. The results indicate that perceived environmental capital significantly increases the probability of conversion intention (AME = 0.097, p < 0.05), while social capital, proxied by cooperative membership, raises it by 17.5 percentage points (p < 0.05). In contrast, perceived institutional capital shows a negative association (AME = −0.059, p < 0.10), and market orientation toward local markets reduces the probability of conversion (AME = −0.314, p < 0.05). Economic and infrastructural factors are not statistically significant. Overall, the study contributes by incorporating a territorial perspective into the analysis of adoption intentions and underlines the importance of strengthening environmental resources and social networks to support agro-ecological transitions. Full article

In this study, we investigate the spatial evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of the Barkhor Historic Area in Lhasa, Tibet, China, in the context of rapid urbanization and heritage conservation. Using multi-temporal spatial data, an integrated analytical framework combining a geographical information system, spatial design network analysis, and GeoDetector software 2015 is employed to examine land use, road network structure, and building morphology. The results show that the overall spatial structure remains highly continuous within a stable pilgrimage-based spatial framework, with spatial evolution occurring primarily through functional reorganization and incremental adjustment within the existing structure. Land use shifts from relatively single functions to mixed patterns, with commercial and public services increasingly concentrated along pilgrimage routes. The road network maintains a stable structural backbone centered on the pilgrimage system, while building morphology evolves through small-scale infill and localized transformation, preserving traditional spatial scales. Driving factor analysis reveals a transition from single-factor dominance to multi-factor coupling. Socio-economic factors dominate early-stage changes, spatial structure provides a persistent organizational framework, and cultural heritage increasingly shapes spatial continuity and functional adaptation. This study highlights a form of pilgrimage-oriented spatial adaptation in religious–cultural historic areas, characterized by structural continuity, functional embedding, and multi-factor coupling, and provides new perspectives for adaptive conservation and spatial governance in historic urban areas. Full article

The Wei River Basin (WRB) faces challenges including flood threats, ecological fragility, and uneven socio-economic development. However, existing ecosystem service supply–demand (ESSD) studies rarely incorporate flood-sediment transport as a core service, and systematic studies on revealing the multi-scale spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanism of ESSD coupling coordination remain insufficient. Therefore, this paper analyzed the ESSD across flood-sediment transport, eco-environmental, and socio-economic subsystems for the period 2005–2023 at three spatial scales (municipal, watershed, and county). A multi-scale comprehensive index of ESSD was constructed. Using the dynamic local and tele-coupling coordination degree (DLTCCD) model and spatial Markov model, we quantitatively assessed dynamic trade-offs and transition patterns of the DLTCCD in ESSD. The XGBoost-SHAP model and structural equation model were employed to explore the internal mechanisms through which key factors influence the DLTCCD. A zoning management mechanism was proposed by integrating the four-quadrant static model and DLTCCD change rate. The results showed the following: (1) ESSD exhibited a spatial pattern of “lower in the north and higher in the south,” with imbalances more evident at the county scale. (2) The DLTCCD showed significant scale dependence, with “spatial club convergence” of high and low levels in the Ziwuling Mountain and Longdong Plain areas. (3) Based on both the XGBoost-SHAP model and the structural equation model, precipitation was identified as the fundamental driving force across scales, exerting influence through interactive effects and a dual mediating path. (4) Zoning identification revealed structural challenges for sustainable development, marked by coexistence of coordinated and uncoordinated development zones. This study identifies the northern Loess Plateau, Qinling northern foothills, and Guanzhong Plain as key zones, proposes a “zoning-based graded intervention” strategy, and provides scientific support for ESSD management in the WRB. Full article

Non-grain use of cultivated land (NGUCL) in ecologically fragile regions has become a major challenge to food security and land sustainability, yet its spatiotemporal dynamics, spatial spillover effects, and associated factors remain insufficiently understood. Taking Ningxia, China, as a typical semi-arid to arid transition zone, this study developed a phenology-informed framework that combined multi-temporal Landsat imagery, random forest classification, spatial autocorrelation analysis, centroid and standard deviation ellipse models, and a spatial lag model to identify and analyze NGUCL in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Within the cultivated land boundary, NGUCL was further decomposed into cash crop-cultivated farmland (CCCF) and farmland abandonment (FA). The results show that the classification framework achieved robust performance, with overall accuracies above 85% across the benchmark years. Food-crop mapping reached an OA of 86.38–90.12% and a Kappa of 0.80–0.85, while FA mapping reached an OA of 85.60–86.74% and a Kappa of 0.70–0.72. NGUCL in Ningxia exhibited strong subregional differentiation under the gradients of northern irrigation, central arid, and southern mountainous conditions. CCCF was more closely associated with irrigated and agriculturally productive areas, whereas FA was concentrated in ecologically constrained counties and showed stronger dispersion and migration complexity. Spatial econometric results further indicate significant spatial spillover effects, suggesting that NGUCL-related processes in one county are associated with those in neighboring counties. The effects of natural, socioeconomic, and agricultural production factors also varied by type and period, indicating that NGUCL in ecologically fragile regions is not a homogeneous land-use transition process. By distinguishing CCCF from FA, this study provides a more nuanced interpretation of NGUCL and offers empirical evidence for understanding cultivated land transition and governance in ecologically fragile areas. Full article

This study examines how urban transportation systems influence the spatial spread of infectious diseases by developing a modified Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR) model with explicit intercity travel dynamics. The model distinguishes between two mobility mechanisms: travel volume, represented by the departure rate g, and travel speed, represented by the arrival rate $\alpha$. Using the next-generation matrix (NGM) approach, we derive the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and analyse how within-city and transit-phase transmission contribute to epidemic spread. The results show that travel volume and travel speed affect mobility-driven transmission through distinct mechanisms. Increasing g increases the number of travelers entering the transit system and therefore amplifies the aggregate number of transit-mediated infections, although the per-capita transit reproduction expression is governed primarily by $\alpha$ and ${\beta }_d^T$ under the reduced next generation matrix formulation formulation. By contrast, increasing $\alpha$ shortens the time spent in transit, reduces the exposure window during travel, and lowers the per-capita contribution of transit-based infection to $R_0$. Numerical simulations illustrate these effects and support the conclusion that reducing travel volume can mitigate intercity epidemic spread by decreasing the number of potentially exposed travelers. Comparative case studies for Brazil, New Zealand, China, and Algeria are used to evaluate the model under different epidemiological settings and socioeconomic contexts. These socioeconomic indicators are treated as contextual background rather than as direct inputs to the mathematical model. The qualitative predictions of the ordinary differential equation (ODE) model are further cross-validated using an agent-based simulation implemented in NetLogo. Overall, the study shows that separating travel volume from travel speed provides a more precise understanding of mobility-driven disease transmission and can support the design of targeted travel-related control measures. Full article

The sustainable transition of power systems is currently hindered by fragmented carbon pricing systems and insufficient cross-market synergies. Considering this, we herein construct a system dynamics model of carbon tax regulation under conditions integrating electricity markets, carbon emission trading (CET) markets, and tradable green certificate (TGC) markets using Vensim PLE 7.3.5 software. We also propose a price-matching mechanism and implementation pathway for carbon taxation and CET to advance low-carbon sustainable development. The simulation results show that the introduction of a carbon tax at an initial rate of 50 CNY per ton significantly improves renewable energy investment returns. Moreover, effective coordination between the carbon tax and CET reduces carbon emissions from the power system, delivering benefits in terms of both environmental and socio-economic sustainability. We further identify a dynamic coordination scheme consisting of a carbon tax with an initial rate of 50 CNY per ton, which is appropriate when the CET prices stabilize at approximately 60 CNY per ton. An initial rate of 30 CNY per ton is more suitable when the CET prices rise above 100 CNY per ton. These findings verify the optimal matching rules for carbon tax intensity under different carbon allowance price levels, and they also provide quantitative policy tools and empirical support for the scenario-based regulation of carbon pricing systems to achieve sustainable energy transition goals. Full article

Climate change, depleting fossil fuel reserves, and instability in petroleum prices are driving developing economies to explore cost-effective, efficient, and sustainable energy sources such as hydropower. However, there is an ongoing debate regarding the relevance, suitability, and impact of mega-dams. Much of the existing research on mega-dams examines this debate through the lens of development theories. However, mega-dams impact a wide range of stakeholders at local, national, regional, and global levels, necessitating exploration of their role from a socioeconomic perspective. This interdisciplinary case study draws knowledge from management, sociology, and economics and provides a comprehensive account of multi-stakeholder perspectives on the impact of a mega-dam and addresses the research question: How do stakeholders perceive the impact of the Merowe Dam on agricultural livelihoods, and how do they interpret the role of governance processes? Participants included farmers, a focus group with 10 members from the affected communities, and 32 key informant interviews from non-governmental organizations, political actors, academics, businessmen and leaders in the catchment areas of the Merowe Dam, Sudan. The findings suggest that despite some concerns about motivations and processes of mega-dam commissioning, these projects are perceived as beneficial for long-term and sustainable socioeconomic growth and gaining support for renewable energy use in developing economies. The participants reported that modernization of agriculture, following the establishment of the dam, increased crop yields, e.g., wheat production has increased per hectare. Farmers’ income and irrigated land have increased substantially per family due to an increase in land sizes allocated to relocated communities, leading to an overall increase in land size. Therefore, with improved processes in both pre- and post-commissioning stages, transparency, accountability, and deeper stakeholder engagement, mega-dams can facilitate a smoother transition from fossil fuels to large-scale hydropower on one hand and livelihood enhancement through agriculture and other income generating activities on the other. Full article

Background: Hypertension is being increasingly observed among young adults in urban India, alongside rapid dietary transitions and rising consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs). The current study aimed to assess the frequency and patterns of UPF consumption and examine their association with high blood pressure among urban college students. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 311 undergraduate students aged 18–24 years from three colleges in Hyderabad, India. Our study used a validated automated device to measure blood pressure. Dietary intake over the previous month was assessed using a 24-item food frequency questionnaire capturing commonly consumed UPFs. After adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic variables, multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess the relationships between UPF consumption categories and high blood pressure. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals (CIs) for adjusted odds ratios (AORs) were reported. Results: Overall, 12.5% of participants had high BP (≥140/90 mmHg). The prevalence was higher among males and those aged >20 years. In the adjusted analyses, males had significantly higher odds of having high BP (AOR: 4.96; 95% CI: 1.64–15.01), as did students from higher-income households (AOR: 3.22; 95% CI: 1.07–9.66). Consumption of high-fat and/or high-salt UPFs at or above the median was independently associated with high BP (AOR: 2.85; 95% CI: 1.16–6.99). Taste, availability, and low cost were common drivers of UPF intake. Conclusions: Higher consumption of high-fat and/or high-salt ultra-processed foods was associated with higher odds of elevated blood pressure among urban young adults. These findings warrant further longitudinal investigation and may help inform the development of targeted dietary awareness and food environment interventions in college settings. Full article

Nepal has undergone significant land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes from 2000 to 2020, driven by urbanization, agricultural shifts, and broader socioeconomic dynamics. This study analyzes historical changes and projects LULC dynamics for 2030, 2040, and 2050 across four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Urban Development (RUD), Forest Degradation and Terai Contraction (FDTC), and Agricultural Land Abandonment and Ecological Recovery (ALER). A CA–Markov modeling framework in TerrSet was used to simulate future land-use patterns, utilizing scenario-specific transition probability matrices and spatial constraints to reflect different socio-economic and policy assumptions. Under the BAU scenario, land-use change remains moderate, characterized by gradual urban expansion and limited forest decline. On the contrary, the RUD scenario predicts a drastic expansion of built-up areas by about 1.44 million ha, along with significant losses of cropland, bare soil, grassland, and forest, reflecting intensified development pressure. The FDTC scenario emphasizes agricultural expansion at the expense of forests, while urban growth remains limited. Conversely, the ALER scenario demonstrates strong ecological recovery driven by cropland abandonment and secondary vegetation regeneration, resulting in notable expansion of forest and other woody land. Overall, these four scenarios reveal sharply divergent land-use trajectories, ranging from rapid urban transformation to ecosystem restoration. These contrasting land-use pathways highlight the critical importance of integrated land-use policies that can proactively manage urban expansion, safeguard high-value agricultural and forest landscapes, and promote ecological restoration through incentives for agricultural land abandonment and secondary vegetation recovery, thereby ensuring long-term sustainability and climate resilience in Nepal. Full article

Climate change poses significant threats to Mediterranean plant species, including Laurus nobilis L., an ecologically and economically important tree. This study evaluates potential shifts in its suitable distribution areas across Türkiye under future climate scenarios [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) and 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5)] using an ensemble species distribution model incorporating ten algorithms. Key environmental drivers—elevation, annual mean temperature (Bio1), and evaporation including sublimation and transpiration (evspsbl)—were identified as critical factors influencing habitat suitability. Results indicate substantial spatial redistributions, with habitat losses projected in inland transition zones toward continental climates, particularly in parts of the Aegean and Black Sea regions. The current suitable distribution area across the country, approximately 18.48%, could rise to 18.55% by 2040 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 18.76% by 2060 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, without human intervention, the species’ establishment in these new suitable distribution areas is not considered possible. Moreover, it has been determined that the suitable distribution area of the species could decrease to 17.48% by 2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 17.31% by 2080 under the SSP5-85 scenario. This result indicates that there could be a loss of more than 8% of the suitable distribution area between 2060 and 2080, according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Conversely, limited expansions may occur in specific areas, including the northern Aegean and the Hatay-Antep region. By 2100, despite periodic fluctuations, a net decline in suitable habitats is expected under both scenarios. Notably, spatial analysis reveals that while some newly suitable areas may emerge, natural migration will likely be insufficient for population persistence, necessitating human-assisted adaptation strategies. These findings underscore the need for proactive conservation measures, such as identifying climate-resilient provenances, assisted migration, and targeted reforestation in future suitable zones. Given that most Turkish forests are state-managed, collaboration with the General Directorate of Forestry is essential to integrate climate adaptation into long-term management plans. This study provides a framework for mitigating climate-induced habitat loss in L. nobilis while offering insights applicable to other vulnerable Mediterranean species facing similar threats. Full article

Drawing on an extensive literature review, this paper identifies key dimensions of social impact and land management in surface mining areas, including settlement relocation, long-term land occupation, limited economic diversification, demographic decline, and stakeholder distrust. These findings are then critically applied to the Ptolemais lignite basin, where six decades of large-scale surface mining reshaped land use patterns, displaced settlements, and structured a highly specialized regional economy. The research combines qualitative literature analysis with a case study approach, supported by socioeconomic and demographic indicators. Results show that (i) lignite exploitation generated employment, infrastructure, and regional income multipliers but also structural vulnerabilities and other impacts, (ii) land occupation and settlement relocation as an impact of mine expansion created long-term spatial constraints, and (iii) the energy transition phase intensified demographic, unemployment, and governance challenges. The paper argues that effective post-lignite restructuring is related to systematic reclamation strategies, integrated land-use planning, optimal exploitation of reclaimed land, diversification beyond energy production, and participatory governance frameworks. By linking international theoretical insights with empirical evidence from Western Macedonia, the study contributes to the debate on socially just and spatially balanced transitions in former coal and lignite regions. Full article

In the context of the dual-carbon goals and the broader United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, stimulating innovation motivation within environmental protection enterprises holds significant strategic importance for achieving long-term sustainability. Drawing on institutional theory and signaling theory, this study examines how government subsidies influence the sustainable innovation performance in China’s environmental protection industry and investigates the boundary conditions and mechanisms of this relationship from a socio-economic and integrated policy perspective. Using a sample of 121 listed environmental protection enterprises in China from 2016 to 2025, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of government subsidies on both the quantity and quality of innovation output. It innovatively incorporates the market-driven factor of public environmental attention into the analytical framework to test its moderating effect and examines the mediating role of corporate social responsibility. The findings indicate that government subsidies significantly enhance both the quantity and quality of innovation output from environmental protection enterprises, thereby contributing to their sustainability transition. Public environmental attention positively moderates the innovation-incentivizing effect of government subsidies, with a stronger moderating effect on innovation quality than on quantity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the incentive effect of government subsidies on innovation quantity is significant only in the eastern and western regions of China, while the effect on innovation quality is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises and the western region, offering insights for region-specific and ownership-specific sustainable policy designs. Mechanism analysis indicates that government subsidies promote innovation performance by encouraging firms to fulfill corporate social responsibilities, with CSR serving as a partial mediator. These findings extend institutional and signaling theories to the context of environmental protection enterprises and provide a framework for quantifying and monitoring the effectiveness of sustainability policies. Based on the conclusions, relevant policy optimization suggestions are proposed to align industrial innovation with the principles of sustainable development. Full article

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is an emerging public health challenge in Africa, driven by rapid urbanisation, changing lifestyles and socio-economic transitions. As the global prevalence rises, evidence on the burden and determinants of DM across African countries remains fragmented and inconsistent. Objective: We aimed to synthesize evidence from existing systematic reviews and meta-analyses on the prevalence and determinants of diabetes mellitus across African populations, thereby informing targeted interventions and policy actions. Methods: This umbrella review followed the PRISMA guidelines and included systematic reviews and meta-analyses of studies, published up to December 2024, that reported on DM prevalence and/or risk factors for DM in adults across four African countries. The literature was retrieved from PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and African Journals Online (AJOL). Quality assessment was conducted using the AMSTAR 2 (A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews, version 2) tool, and only moderate- to high-quality reviews were retained. Random-effects models were used to estimate the pooled prevalence and odds ratios (ORs), while heterogeneity, publication bias and sensitivity analyses were also conducted. Findings: Seven reviews were included, covering four countries: Ethiopia, South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana. The pooled prevalence of diabetes mellitus was 9.0% (95% CI: 6.0–12.0%), with significant heterogeneity (I² = 99.8%). Among the determinants, only family history of DM (OR:5.11, 95% CI: 2.96–8.85), hypertension (OR: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.65–3.83), obesity (OR: 3.04; 95% CI: 1.92–4.82), physical inactivity (OR: 3.32; 95% CI: 1.99–5.54), smoking (OR: 2.59; 95% CI: 1.23–5.47), unhealthy diet (OR: 4.77; 95% CI: 1.73–13.18) and urban residence (OR: 5.81; 95%CI: 4.41–7.65), showed a statistically significant association. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of pooled prevalence, and no significant publication bias was detected. Conclusions: Diabetes mellitus prevalence in Africa is rising and approaching the global averages. The heterogeneity in risk factors underscores the need for localised, context-specific strategies. Full article

As a strategic node of the Silk Road Economic Belt and a prototypical valley-type city, Lanzhou is subject to the dual constraints of rapid urbanization and an inherently fragile ecological foundation, making the coordination between urban expansion and ecosystem services a critical issue for regional sustainability. Drawing upon multi-temporal land use remote sensing datasets provided by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Resource and Environment Science Data Center, in conjunction with soil, meteorological, and socio-economic data, this study integrates a land use transition matrix, the InVEST model, a modified coupling coordination degree model, and the geographic detector to comprehensively examine land use dynamics, the spatiotemporal evolution of urban expansion, and the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services (i.e., carbon storage, water yield, habitat quality, and soil conservation) in Lanzhou. In addition, the coupling coordination relationship and its underlying driving mechanisms are systematically explored. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Between 1980 and 2020, urban land area in Lanzhou increased from 103.87 km² to 286.83 km², accounting for 2.17% of the total area, with cropland constituting the dominant source of expansion and exhibiting a fluctuating “high–low–high” conversion trajectory. (2) Ecosystem services exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with carbon storage and habitat quality displaying a pattern of “low in the southeast and high in the northwest”, water yield showing an increasing gradient from southeast to northwest, and soil conservation characterized by “lower values in central areas and higher values in peripheral regions”; (3) Urban expansion has accelerated significantly, with Yongdeng County and Gaolan County emerging as principal expansion hotspots during 2010–2020. (4) The dominant driving mechanism gradually shifted from natural factors to the synergistic interaction between natural and socioeconomic factors, and the interaction among driving factors markedly enhanced the explanatory power for ecosystem service evolution. (5) The coupling coordination degree has transitioned from widespread imbalance to a spatially differentiated pattern, characterized by relatively coordinated conditions in peripheral areas and persistent imbalance within the central urban core. These findings provide a robust scientific basis for territorial spatial optimization and the synergistic development of ecological and economic systems in valley-type cities, and offer important implications for sustainable development in arid and semi-arid regions. Full article

Floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural hazards, causing significant socio-economic losses worldwide. This paper presents a comprehensive review of floodwall technologies, focusing on the integration of ultra-high-performance fibre-reinforced concrete (UHPFRC) to enhance structural and hydraulic performance. Flood protection systems are categorized into permanent, demountable, and temporary, and are evaluated based on parameters such as activation time, seepage resistance, and lifecycle cost. This review examines key structural applications, including floodwall barriers, wave-energy floaters, and retaining walls, in which UHPFRC provides significant advantages such as reduced material consumption, improved impact resistance, and increased durability in harsh environmental conditions. Additionally, recent advancements in floodwall systems are critically assessed through experimental investigations, numerical modelling, and hydraulic performance under varied loading and flow conditions. The analysis reveals that while UHPFRC systems can reduce material volumes by up to 73% and carbon emissions by 49% compared to conventional reinforced concrete, their adoption is currently limited by a lack of dedicated design standards. Based on a synthesis of peer-reviewed studies (2010–2026), findings indicate that autonomous, buoyancy-driven UHPFRC barriers offer the highest reliability in high-risk zones, whereas manual modular systems remain limited by human-factor vulnerabilities during rapid deployment. Critical research gaps are identified—specifically the need for standardized constitutive models for UHPFRC in hydrostatic environments and extensive long-term field validation—to support the transition toward resilient, smart urban flood defence infrastructure. Full article