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Keywords = temporal attention mechanism

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25 pages, 13024 KB  
Article
Hybrid Frequency–Temporal Modeling with Transformer for Long-Term Satellite Telemetry Prediction
by Zhuqing Chen, Jiasen Yang, Zhongkang Yin, Yijia Wu, Lei Zhong, Qingyu Jia and Zhimin Chen
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(21), 11585; https://doi.org/10.3390/app152111585 - 30 Oct 2025
Abstract
Reliable forecasting of satellite telemetry is critical for spacecraft health management and mission planning. However, conventional data-driven methods often struggle to effectively capture both the long-term dependencies and local dynamics inherent in telemetry data. To tackle these challenges, we introduce FFT1D-Dual, a hybrid [...] Read more.
Reliable forecasting of satellite telemetry is critical for spacecraft health management and mission planning. However, conventional data-driven methods often struggle to effectively capture both the long-term dependencies and local dynamics inherent in telemetry data. To tackle these challenges, we introduce FFT1D-Dual, a hybrid Transformer framework that unifies frequency-domain and temporal-domain modeling, effectively capturing both long-term dependencies and local features in telemetry data to enable more accurate satellite forecasting. The encoder replaces computationally expensive self-attention with a novel Dual-Path Mixer encoder that combines one-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and temporal convolutions, adaptively fused via a learnable channel-wise gating mechanism. A standard attention-based decoder with dynamic positional encodings preserves temporal reasoning capability. Experiments on real-world satellite telemetry datasets demonstrate that FFT1D-Dual mostly outperforms baselines across both short- and long-term horizons across three representative telemetry variables while maintaining consistently lower error growth in long-horizon predictions. Ablation studies confirm that the combination of frequency-domain modeling and dual-path fusion jointly contributes to these gains. The proposed approach provides an efficient solution for accurate long-term forecasting in complex satellite telemetry scenarios. Full article
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31 pages, 7049 KB  
Article
Objective Emotion Assessment Using a Triple Attention Network for an EEG-Based Brain–Computer Interface
by Lihua Zhang, Xin Zhang, Xiu Zhang, Changyi Yu and Xuguang Liu
Brain Sci. 2025, 15(11), 1167; https://doi.org/10.3390/brainsci15111167 - 29 Oct 2025
Abstract
Background: The assessment of emotion recognition holds growing significance in research on the brain–computer interface and human–computer interaction. Among diverse physiological signals, electroencephalography (EEG) occupies a pivotal position in affective computing due to its exceptional temporal resolution and non-invasive acquisition. However, EEG signals [...] Read more.
Background: The assessment of emotion recognition holds growing significance in research on the brain–computer interface and human–computer interaction. Among diverse physiological signals, electroencephalography (EEG) occupies a pivotal position in affective computing due to its exceptional temporal resolution and non-invasive acquisition. However, EEG signals are inherently complex, characterized by substantial noise contamination and high variability, posing considerable challenges to accurate assessment. Methods: To tackle these challenges, we propose a Triple Attention Network (TANet), a triple-attention EEG emotion recognition framework that integrates Conformer, Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM), and Mutual Cross-Modal Attention (MCA). The Conformer component captures temporal feature dependencies, CBAM refines spatial channel representations, and MCA performs cross-modal fusion of differential entropy and power spectral density features. Results: We evaluated TANet on two benchmark EEG emotion datasets, DEAP and SEED. On SEED, using a subject-specific cross-validation protocol, the model reached an average accuracy of 98.51 ± 1.40%. On DEAP, we deliberately adopted a segment-level splitting paradigm—in line with influential state-of-the-art methods—to ensure a direct and fair comparison of model architecture under an identical evaluation protocol. This approach, designed specifically to assess fine-grained within-trial pattern discrimination rather than cross-subject generalization, yielded accuracies of 99.69 ± 0.15% and 99.67 ± 0.13% for the valence and arousal dimensions, respectively. Compared with existing benchmark approaches under similar evaluation protocols, TANet delivers substantially better results, underscoring the strong complementary effects of its attention mechanisms in improving EEG-based emotion recognition performance. Conclusions: This work provides both theoretical insights into multi-dimensional attention for physiological signal processing and practical guidance for developing high-performance, robust EEG emotion assessment systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Neurotechnology and Neuroimaging)
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26 pages, 3558 KB  
Article
Avocado: An Interpretable Fine-Grained Intrusion Detection Model for Advanced Industrial Control Network Attacks
by Xin Liu, Tao Liu and Ning Hu
Electronics 2025, 14(21), 4233; https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14214233 - 29 Oct 2025
Abstract
Industrial control systems (ICS), as critical infrastructure supporting national operations, are increasingly threatened by sophisticated stealthy network attacks. These attacks often break malicious behaviors into multiple highly camouflaged packets, which are embedded into large-scale background traffic with low frequency, making them semantically and [...] Read more.
Industrial control systems (ICS), as critical infrastructure supporting national operations, are increasingly threatened by sophisticated stealthy network attacks. These attacks often break malicious behaviors into multiple highly camouflaged packets, which are embedded into large-scale background traffic with low frequency, making them semantically and temporally indistinguishable from normal traffic and thus evading traditional detection. Existing methods largely rely on flow-level statistics or long-sequence modeling, resulting in coarse detection granularity, high latency, and poor byte-level interpretability, falling short of industrial demands for real-time and actionable detection. To address these challenges, we propose Avocado, a fine-grained, multi-level intrusion detection model. Avocado’s core innovation lies in contextual flow-feature fusion: it models each packet jointly with its surrounding packet sequence, enabling independent abnormality detection and precise localization. Moreover, a shared-query multi-head self-attention mechanism is designed to quantify byte-level importance within packets. Experimental results show that Avocado significantly outperforms state-of-the-art flow-level methods on NGAS and CLIA-M221 datasets, improving packet-level detection ACC by 1.55% on average, and reducing FPR and FNR to 3.2%, 3.6% (NGAS), and 3.7%, 4.3% (CLIA-M221), respectively, demonstrating its superior performance in both detection and interpretability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Novel Approaches for Deep Learning in Cybersecurity)
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24 pages, 3168 KB  
Article
Spatio-Temporal Feature Fusion-Based Hybrid GAT-CNN-LSTM Model for Enhanced Short-Term Power Load Forecasting
by Jia Huang, Qing Wei, Tiankuo Wang, Jiajun Ding, Longfei Yu, Diyang Wang and Zhitong Yu
Energies 2025, 18(21), 5686; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215686 - 29 Oct 2025
Abstract
Conventional power load forecasting frameworks face limitations in dynamic spatial topology capture and long-term dependency modeling. To address these issues, this study proposes a hybrid GAT-CNN-LSTM architecture for enhanced short-term power load forecasting. The model integrates three core components synergistically: Graph Attention Network [...] Read more.
Conventional power load forecasting frameworks face limitations in dynamic spatial topology capture and long-term dependency modeling. To address these issues, this study proposes a hybrid GAT-CNN-LSTM architecture for enhanced short-term power load forecasting. The model integrates three core components synergistically: Graph Attention Network (GAT) dynamically captures spatial correlations via adaptive node weighting, resolving static topology constraints; a CNN-LSTM module extracts multi-scale temporal features—convolutional kernels decompose load fluctuations, while bidirectional LSTM layers model long-term trends; and a gated fusion mechanism adaptively weights and fuses spatio-temporal features, suppressing noise and enhancing sensitivity to critical load periods. Experimental validations on multi-city datasets show significant improvements: the model outperforms baseline models by a notable margin in error reduction, exhibits stronger robustness under extreme weather, and maintains superior stability in multi-step forecasting. This study concludes that the hybrid model balances spatial topological analysis and temporal trend modeling, providing higher accuracy and adaptability for STLF in complex power grid environments. Full article
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18 pages, 1517 KB  
Article
MFA-CNN: An Emotion Recognition Network Integrating 1D–2D Convolutional Neural Network and Cross-Modal Causal Features
by Jing Zhang, Anhong Wang, Suyue Li, Debiao Zhang and Xin Li
Brain Sci. 2025, 15(11), 1165; https://doi.org/10.3390/brainsci15111165 - 29 Oct 2025
Abstract
Background/Objectives: It has become a major direction of research in affective computing to explore the brain-information-processing mechanisms based on physiological signals such as electroencephalography (EEG) and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). However, existing research has mostly focused on feature- and decision-level fusion, with little [...] Read more.
Background/Objectives: It has become a major direction of research in affective computing to explore the brain-information-processing mechanisms based on physiological signals such as electroencephalography (EEG) and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). However, existing research has mostly focused on feature- and decision-level fusion, with little investigation into the causal relationship between these two modalities. Methods: In this paper, we propose a novel emotion recognition framework for the simultaneous acquisition of EEG and fNIRS signals. This framework integrates the Granger causality (GC) method and a modality–frequency attention mechanism within a convolutional neural network backbone (MFA-CNN). First, we employed GC to quantify the causal relationships between the EEG and fNIRS signals. This revealed emotional-processing mechanisms from the perspectives of neuro-electrical activity and hemodynamic interactions. Then, we designed a 1D2D-CNN framework that fuses temporal and spatial representations and introduced the MFA module to dynamically allocate weights across modalities and frequency bands. Results: Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms strong baselines under both single-modal and multi-modal conditions, showing the effectiveness of causal features in emotion recognition. Conclusions: These findings indicate that combining GC-based cross-modal causal features with modality–frequency attention improves EEG–fNIRS-based emotion recognition and provides a more physiologically interpretable view of emotion-related brain activity. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Emotion Processing and Cognitive Neuropsychology)
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19 pages, 1609 KB  
Article
Instance-Based Transfer Learning-Improved Battery State-of-Health Estimation with Self-Attention Mechanism
by Renjun He, Chunxiao Wang, Chun Yin, Shang Yang, Yifan Wang, Yuanpeng Fang, Kai Chen and Jiusi Zhang
Energies 2025, 18(21), 5672; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215672 - 29 Oct 2025
Abstract
Batteries’ state-of-health (SOH) estimation has attracted appealing attention in energy industrial systems. In conventional data-driven methods, the lack of target data and different source data can also lead to poor model training effect. To tackle this problem, this paper combines the instance-based transfer [...] Read more.
Batteries’ state-of-health (SOH) estimation has attracted appealing attention in energy industrial systems. In conventional data-driven methods, the lack of target data and different source data can also lead to poor model training effect. To tackle this problem, this paper combines the instance-based transfer (ITL) and interpretable self-attention mechanism (SAM) to integrate the fitting ability of long short-term memory (LSTM), which can improve the SOH estimation performance. ITL re-weights the temporal instance of a training set to give more impact of target-like data, which can relax the independent and identical distribution (IID) assumption. SAM method can enhance the estimation performance by re-weighting the spatial features, and be interpreted by detailed visualization. During the model training, the pre-trained multi-layer LSTM model is fine-tuned by target data to make full use of target information. The proposed method has outperformed other compared algorithms in transfer tasks, and has tested in real-world cross-domain conditions datasets. Full article
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24 pages, 990 KB  
Article
Building Rural Resilience Through a Neo-Endogenous Approach in China: Unraveling the Metamorphosis of Jianta Village
by Min Liu, Chenyao Zhang, Zhuoli Li, Awudu Abdulai and Jinxiu Yang
Agriculture 2025, 15(21), 2251; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15212251 - 28 Oct 2025
Abstract
Rural resilience building has gained increasing scholarly attention, yet existing literature overlooks the temporal dynamics of resilience evolution and lacks an integrative framework to explain cross-level mechanisms. This paper uses a longitudinal case study to explore how rural resilience transitions from a low-equilibrium [...] Read more.
Rural resilience building has gained increasing scholarly attention, yet existing literature overlooks the temporal dynamics of resilience evolution and lacks an integrative framework to explain cross-level mechanisms. This paper uses a longitudinal case study to explore how rural resilience transitions from a low-equilibrium to a high-equilibrium state and how neo-endogenous practices emerge in a weak institutional context. The study reveals three key findings. First, the village’s resilience evolved through three phases—institutional intervention, community capital activation, and resilience self-reinforcement—driven by co-evolutionary interactions between an enabling government and the rural community. This process is marked by chain effects of multidimensional community capital (e.g., cultural capital enhancing social capital) and overflow effects from resilience amplification (e.g., multi-scalar network). Second, exogenous resources and endogenous community capital are critical in the neo-endogenous model, but their synergy relies on vertical institutional interventions that foster horizontal networks and enhance communities’ resource absorption capacity. Third, the government enables resilience building by creating a support ecosystem that transitions from institutionally bundled resources to a higher-order composite space, facilitated by urban–rural interactions and community restructuring. The study makes three theoretical contributions: (1) it proposes an analytical framework integrating an enabling government, community capital, and ecosystem upgrading, thus advancing beyond the current community capital-centric paradigm; (2) it introduces a three-phase process model that unpacks spatiotemporal interactions across urban-rural interfaces, multi-scalar networks, and state-community relations, addressing the limitations of static factor-based analyses; (3) it reconceptualizes the role of government as an “enabling government” that mediates local and extra-local resource interfaces, challenging the neo-endogenous theories’ neglect of institutional agency. These insights contribute to rural resilience scholarship through a complex adaptive systems lens and offer policy implications for synergistic urban-rural revitalization. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Agricultural Economics, Policies and Rural Management)
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27 pages, 2162 KB  
Article
A Dual-Attention Temporal Convolutional Network-Based Track Initiation Method for Maneuvering Targets
by Hanbao Wu, Yiming Hao, Wei Chen and Mingli Liao
Electronics 2025, 14(21), 4215; https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14214215 - 28 Oct 2025
Abstract
In strong clutter and maneuvering scenarios, radar track initiation faces the dual challenges of a low initiation rate and high false alarm rate. Although the existing deep learning methods show promise, the commonly adopted “feature flattening” input strategy destroys the intrinsic temporal structure [...] Read more.
In strong clutter and maneuvering scenarios, radar track initiation faces the dual challenges of a low initiation rate and high false alarm rate. Although the existing deep learning methods show promise, the commonly adopted “feature flattening” input strategy destroys the intrinsic temporal structure and feature relationships of track data, limiting its discriminative performance. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel radar track initiation method based on Dual-Attention Temporal Convolutional Network (DA-TCN), reformulating track initiation as a binary classification task for very short multi-channel time series that preserve complete temporal structure. The DA-TCN model employs the TCN as its backbone network to extract local dynamic features and innovatively constructs a dual-attention architecture: a channel attention branch dynamically calibrates the importance of each kinematic feature, while a temporal attention branch integrates Bi-GRU and self-attention mechanisms to capture the dependencies at critical time steps. Ultimately, a learnable gated fusion mechanism adaptively weights the dual-branch information for optimal characterization of track characteristics. Experimental results on maneuvering target datasets demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms multiple baseline models across varying clutter densities: Under the highest clutter density, DA-TCN achieves 95.12% true track initiation rate (+1.6% over best baseline) with 9.65% false alarm rate (3.63% reduction), validating its effectiveness for high-precision and highly robust track initiation in complex environments. Full article
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25 pages, 2392 KB  
Article
Causal Intervention and Counterfactual Reasoning for Multimodal Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction
by Xinyu Han and Huosheng Xu
J. Imaging 2025, 11(11), 379; https://doi.org/10.3390/jimaging11110379 - 28 Oct 2025
Abstract
Pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous systems navigating human-populated environments. However, existing methods face fundamental challenges including spurious correlations induced by confounding social environments, passive uncertainty modeling that limits prediction diversity, and bias coupling during feature interaction that contaminates trajectory representations. To [...] Read more.
Pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous systems navigating human-populated environments. However, existing methods face fundamental challenges including spurious correlations induced by confounding social environments, passive uncertainty modeling that limits prediction diversity, and bias coupling during feature interaction that contaminates trajectory representations. To address these issues, we propose a novel Causal Intervention and Counterfactual Reasoning (CICR) framework that shifts trajectory prediction from associative learning to a causal inference paradigm. Our approach features a hierarchical architecture having three core components: a Multisource Encoder that extracts comprehensive spatio-temporal and social context features; a Causal Intervention Fusion Module that eliminates confounding bias through the front-door criterion and cross-attention mechanisms; and a Counterfactual Reasoning Decoder that proactively generates diverse future trajectories by simulating hypothetical scenarios. Extensive experiments on the ETH/UCY, SDD, and AVD datasets demonstrate superior performance, achieving an average ADE/FDE of 0.17/0.24 on ETH/UCY and 7.13/10.29 on SDD, with particular advantages in long-term prediction and cross-domain generalization. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Machine Learning for Computer Vision Applications)
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19 pages, 2431 KB  
Article
Predicting the Remaining Service Life of Power Transformers Using Machine Learning
by Zimo Gao, Binkai Yu, Jiahe Guang, Shanghua Jiang, Xinze Cong, Minglei Zhang and Lin Yu
Processes 2025, 13(11), 3459; https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13113459 - 28 Oct 2025
Abstract
In response to the insufficient adaptability of power transformer remaining useful life (RUL) prediction under complex working conditions and the difficulty of multi-scale feature fusion, this study proposes an industrial time series prediction model based on the parallel Transformer–BiGRU–GlobalAttention model. The parallel Transformer [...] Read more.
In response to the insufficient adaptability of power transformer remaining useful life (RUL) prediction under complex working conditions and the difficulty of multi-scale feature fusion, this study proposes an industrial time series prediction model based on the parallel Transformer–BiGRU–GlobalAttention model. The parallel Transformer encoder captures long-range temporal dependencies, the BiGRU network enhances local sequence associations through bidirectional modeling, the global attention mechanism dynamically weights key temporal features, and cross-attention achieves spatiotemporal feature interaction and fusion. Experiments were conducted based on the public ETT transformer temperature dataset, employing sliding window and piecewise linear label processing techniques, with MAE, MSE, and RMSE as evaluation metrics. The results show that the model achieved excellent predictive performance on the test set, with an MSE of 0.078, MAE of 0.233, and RMSE of 11.13. Compared with traditional LSTM, CNN-BiGRU-Attention, and other methods, the model achieved improvements of 17.2%, 6.0%, and 8.9%, respectively. Ablation experiments verified that the global attention mechanism rationalizes the feature contribution distribution, with the core temporal feature OT having a contribution rate of 0.41. Multiple experiments demonstrated that this method has higher precision compared with other methods. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Energy Systems)
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20 pages, 8234 KB  
Article
Spatial–Temporal Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Marine Heatwaves in the East China Sea Based on Deep Learning
by Wenjing Xu, Biyun Guo, Venkata Subrahmanyam Mantravadi, Zhiyong Xu, Cheng Wan, John Sikule Sabuyi and Zheng Xu
Water 2025, 17(21), 3076; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17213076 - 28 Oct 2025
Abstract
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been shown to exert a substantial influence on marine ecosystems and associated industries. Consequently, the development of accurate prediction models is imperative for mitigating ecological risks. This study concentrates on the East China Sea, employing sea surface temperature (SST) [...] Read more.
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been shown to exert a substantial influence on marine ecosystems and associated industries. Consequently, the development of accurate prediction models is imperative for mitigating ecological risks. This study concentrates on the East China Sea, employing sea surface temperature (SST) data from the OISST v2.1 dataset, which spans from 1982 to 2024, for the purpose of examining the spatial and temporal characteristics of six significant MHW indicators. The results reveal a clear annual increase in all six indicators. This study employed the deep learning-based SegRNN_ST model to forecast future MHW trends. It integrated a spatiotemporal attention mechanism and was optimized using mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE) as loss functions. And the coefficient of determination (R2) was utilized as a performance metric for predicting MHWs in the East China Sea. The findings indicate that the improved SegRNN_ST model increased the R2 by 8% compared to the original model, with MSE and MAE showing reductions of 20% and 15%, respectively. This study demonstrates fewer errors than SegRNN and enhanced accuracy in predicting MHWs. This study introduces a new method for predicting and providing early warnings of MHWs, improving the accuracy of forecasts for extreme marine weather events. Full article
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21 pages, 5023 KB  
Article
Robust 3D Target Detection Based on LiDAR and Camera Fusion
by Miao Jin, Bing Lu, Gang Liu, Yinglong Diao, Xiwen Chen and Gaoning Nie
Electronics 2025, 14(21), 4186; https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14214186 - 27 Oct 2025
Viewed by 262
Abstract
Autonomous driving relies on multimodal sensors to acquire environmental information for supporting decision making and control. While significant progress has been made in 3D object detection regarding point cloud processing and multi-sensor fusion, existing methods still suffer from shortcomings—such as sparse point clouds [...] Read more.
Autonomous driving relies on multimodal sensors to acquire environmental information for supporting decision making and control. While significant progress has been made in 3D object detection regarding point cloud processing and multi-sensor fusion, existing methods still suffer from shortcomings—such as sparse point clouds of foreground targets, fusion instability caused by fluctuating sensor data quality, and inadequate modeling of cross-frame temporal consistency in video streams—which severely restrict the practical performance of perception systems. To address these issues, this paper proposes a multimodal video stream 3D object detection framework based on reliability evaluation. Specifically, it dynamically perceives the reliability of each modal feature by evaluating the Region of Interest (RoI) features of cameras and LiDARs, and adaptively adjusts their contribution ratios in the fusion process accordingly. Additionally, a target-level semantic soft matching graph is constructed within the RoI region. Combined with spatial self-attention and temporal cross-attention mechanisms, the spatio-temporal correlations between consecutive frames are fully explored to achieve feature completion and enhancement. Verification on the nuScenes dataset shows that the proposed algorithm achieves an optimal performance of 67.3% and 70.6% in terms of the two core metrics, mAP and NDS, respectively—outperforming existing mainstream 3D object detection algorithms. Ablation experiments confirm that each module plays a crucial role in improving overall performance, and the algorithm exhibits better robustness and generalization in dynamically complex scenarios. Full article
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20 pages, 34996 KB  
Article
Explainable Shape Anomaly Detection of Space Targets from ISAR Image Sequences
by Zi Wang, Jia Duan and Lei Zhang
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(21), 3541; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17213541 - 26 Oct 2025
Viewed by 143
Abstract
Shape anomaly detection of satellites is critical to ensuring their safe operation. With the intrinsic range-Doppler projection mechanism, the inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) image sequence has a high potential for localizing and detecting satellites’ shape anomalies. In this manuscript, we propose a [...] Read more.
Shape anomaly detection of satellites is critical to ensuring their safe operation. With the intrinsic range-Doppler projection mechanism, the inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) image sequence has a high potential for localizing and detecting satellites’ shape anomalies. In this manuscript, we propose a Fully Convolutional Data Description (FCDD) joint temporal sequential classification network to extract both spatial and temporal information for shape anomaly detection of space targets. The explainable FCDD network is initially built to generate explainable heatmaps of anomalies. An attention-based GRU is used to learn context information between heatmap sequences by converting detection into sequential binary classification. In this way, the joint temporal and spatial information extraction proposal can not only detect shape anomalies with high precision and low false alarm rate but also retain the capability of generating explainable heatmaps to localize satellite shape anomaly components. Extensive experimental results confirm the superiority of the proposal. Full article
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21 pages, 6893 KB  
Article
A Multi-Source Data-Driven Fracturing Pressure Prediction Model
by Zhongwei Zhu, Mingqing Wan, Yanwei Sun, Xuan Gong, Biao Lei, Zheng Tang and Liangjie Mao
Processes 2025, 13(11), 3434; https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13113434 - 26 Oct 2025
Viewed by 252
Abstract
Accurate prediction of fracturing pressure is critical for operational safety and fracturing efficiency in unconventional reservoirs. Traditional physics-based models and existing deep learning architectures often struggle to capture the intense fluctuations and complex temporal dependencies observed in actual fracturing operations. To address these [...] Read more.
Accurate prediction of fracturing pressure is critical for operational safety and fracturing efficiency in unconventional reservoirs. Traditional physics-based models and existing deep learning architectures often struggle to capture the intense fluctuations and complex temporal dependencies observed in actual fracturing operations. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a multi-source data-driven fracturing pressure prediction model, a model integrating TCN-BiLSTM-Attention Mechanism (Temporal Convolutional Network, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory, Attention Mechanism), and introduces a feature selection mechanism for fracture pressure prediction. This model employs TCN to extract multi-scale local fluctuation features, BiLSTM to capture long-term dependencies, and Attention to adaptively adjust feature weights. A two-stage feature selection strategy combining correlation analysis and ablation experiments effectively eliminates redundant features and enhances model robustness. Field data from the Sichuan Basin were used for model validation. Results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms baseline models (LSTM, BiLSTM, and TCN-BiLSTM) in mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2), particularly under high-fluctuation conditions. When integrated with slope reversal analysis, it achieves sand blockage warnings up to 41 s in advance, offering substantial potential for real-time decision support in fracturing operations. Full article
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22 pages, 2640 KB  
Article
Mechanism-Guided and Attention-Enhanced Time-Series Model for Rate of Penetration Prediction in Deep and Ultra-Deep Wells
by Chongyuan Zhang, Chengkai Zhang, Ning Li, Chaochen Wang, Long Chen, Rui Zhang, Lin Zhu, Shanlin Ye, Qihao Li and Haotian Liu
Processes 2025, 13(11), 3433; https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13113433 - 26 Oct 2025
Viewed by 300
Abstract
Accurate prediction of the rate of penetration (ROP) in deep and ultra-deep wells remains a major challenge due to complex downhole conditions and limited real-time data. To address the issues of physical inconsistency and weak generalization in conventional da-ta-driven approaches, this study proposes [...] Read more.
Accurate prediction of the rate of penetration (ROP) in deep and ultra-deep wells remains a major challenge due to complex downhole conditions and limited real-time data. To address the issues of physical inconsistency and weak generalization in conventional da-ta-driven approaches, this study proposes a mechanism-guided and attention-enhanced deep learning framework. In this framework, drilling physical principles such as energy balance are reformulated into differentiable constraint terms and directly incorporated in-to the loss function of deep neural networks, ensuring that model predictions strictly ad-here to drilling physics. Meanwhile, attention mechanisms are integrated to improve feature selection and temporal modeling: for tree-based models, we investigate their implicit attention to key parameters such as weight on bit (WOB) and torque; for sequential models, we design attention-enhanced architectures (e.g., LSTM and GRU) to capture long-term dependencies among drilling parameters. Validation on 49,284 samples from 11 deep and ultra-deep wells in China (depth range: 1226–8639 m) demonstrates that the synergy between mechanism constraints and attention mechanisms substantially improves ROP prediction accuracy. In blind-well tests, the proposed method achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 9.47% and an R2 of 0.93, significantly outperforming traditional methods under complex deep-well conditions. This study provides reliable intelligent decision support for optimizing deep and ultra-deep well drilling operations. By improving prediction accuracy and enabling real-time anomaly detection, it enhances operational safety and efficiency while reducing drilling risks. The proposed approach offers high practical value for field applications and supports the intelligent development of the oil and gas industry. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Energy Systems)
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