Search Results (228)

Accurate short-term forecasting of urban water demand is a persistent challenge for utilities seeking to optimize operations, reduce energy costs, and enhance resilience in smart distribution systems. This study presents a multi-scale Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modeling approach that integrates temporal lag optimization to predict daily and hourly water consumption across heterogeneous user profiles. Using high-resolution smart metering data from the SunRise Smart City Project in Lille, France, four demand nodes were analyzed: a District Metered Area (DMA), a student residence, a university restaurant, and an engineering school. Results demonstrate that incorporating lagged consumption variables substantially improves prediction accuracy, with daily R² values increasing from 0.490 to 0.827 at the DMA and from 0.420 to 0.806 at the student residence. At the hourly scale, the 1-h lag model consistently outperformed other configurations, achieving R² up to 0.944 at the DMA, thus capturing both peak and off-peak consumption dynamics. The findings confirm that short-term autocorrelation is a dominant driver of demand variability, and that ANN-based forecasting enhanced by temporal lag features provides a robust, computationally efficient tool for real-time water network management. Beyond improving forecasting performance, the proposed methodology supports operational applications such as leakage detection, anomaly identification, and demand-responsive planning, contributing to more sustainable and resilient urban water systems. Full article

Origin–destination (OD) passenger flow is a critical variable for metro system planning and operation. While numerous studies have investigated the influence of the built environment on passenger flow, most have focused on ingress or egress flows at metro stations. The impact of the built environment on OD flow dynamics, particularly the differences between origin-side and destination-side effects, remains poorly understood. This study proposes a novel method for exploring the non-linear effects of station-area built environments on OD flow in large-scale metro networks. First, hourly OD flows and station-area built environment features were extracted from multi-source data. Next, an analytical framework was developed to model the built environment–OD flow relationship using a gradient boosting decision tree model. Finally, the contributions of built environment variables and their non-linear effects on OD flows were systematically investigated. The proposed method was implemented on the Suzhou metro network in China. Test results show that most built environment variables exhibit time-varying, non-linear correlations with OD flows. Even the same variable demonstrates notable differences in its effect between the origin and destination sides. The findings of this study provide valuable guidance for metro planning and station-area urban development. Full article

Urban heat island conditions increase heat exposure and constrain safe outdoor activities. Urban forests can mitigate thermal loads; however, stand morphology can produce divergent microclimates. We aimed to quantify how stand type (open vs. closed), season (spring, summer, fall), and activity intensity (MET 1.0–6.0) jointly modulate thermal comfort and to identify season-specific optimal MET levels in an urban forest in Daejeon, Republic of Korea. We combined site-specific 3D canopy modeling with hourly Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) simulations driven by AMOS tower data (2023–2024). Comfort was defined as |PMV| ≤ 0.5. Analyses included seasonal means, Cliff’s delta, and generalized estimating equation logistic models to estimate the SITE × SEASON × MET interactions and predict comfort probabilities. Across most seasons and MET levels, C1 was more comfortable than C2. However, at MET 1.0 in summer, the pattern was reversed, which may reflect the canopy shading and associated decreases in mean radiant temperature (MRT) of C2. Comfort peaked at MET 2.0–3.0 and declined sharply at ≥4.5 MET. The three-way SITE × SEASON × MET interaction was significant (p < 0.001). The season-specific optimal MET values under our boundary conditions were 3.0 (spring), 2.0–2.5 (summer), and 3.0 (fall). These simulation-based PMV-centered findings represent model-informed tendencies. Nevertheless, they support actionable guidance: prioritize high-closure stands for low-intensity summer use, leverage open stands for low-to-moderate activities in spring and fall, and avoid high-intensity programs during warm periods. These results inform the programming and design of urban-forest healing and recreation by matching stand type and activity intensity to season to maximize comfortable hours. Full article

PM_2.5 pollution is still serious in densely populated cities with frequent traffic activities, and it continues to threaten public health. Therefore, it is urgent that we obtain ultrahigh-resolution data that can reveal its complex spatiotemporal variation characteristics, supporting more refined environmental governance and health risk prevention and control. This study first carried out ground monitoring based on low-cost sensors combined with observation results, which were corrected with the national environmental monitoring station data. This study also introduced multi-source auxiliary variables and constructed a machine learning model through the stacking ensemble learning method. The model combines corrected low-cost sensor data with high-resolution prediction factors to achieve ultrahigh-spatiotemporal-resolution prediction of PM_2.5 at 100 m × 100 m spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution. The results show that the constructed model shows good prediction ability in 5-fold cross validation, with an overall R² of 0.93 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.09 μg/m³. The spatiotemporal analysis based on the prediction results further revealed that the PM_2.5 concentration in the city showed significant variation characteristics at both the ultra-local scale and the short-term scale, reflecting the high heterogeneity of urban air pollution. In addition, by comparing and analyzing the monitoring data of a national environmental monitoring station that were not used in the correction, it was found that the corrected low-cost sensor data significantly reduced the prediction uncertainty, reducing the RMSE from 72.068 μg/m³ to 16.759 μg/m³, verifying its effectiveness in high spatiotemporal resolution air quality monitoring. This shows that low-cost sensors are expected to make up for the problem of insufficient spatial coverage in traditional national environmental monitoring stations, supporting the successful assessment of urban-level air pollution and health risk management, and therefore having broad application prospects. Full article

Surface ozone pollution poses a significant threat to human health and ecosystems. However, its highly variable spatiotemporal distribution, especially at hourly scales across China, complicates effective risk management. This variability presents substantial challenges for accurate estimation and forecasting, underscoring the importance of evaluating current hourly surface ozone estimation methods. Therefore, this study collaboratively evaluated the performance of chemical transport model simulations and satellite-based estimates of hourly surface ozone concentrations over mainland China in 2019. Using data from 3185 ground monitoring stations operated by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, as well as six independent observation sites in Hong Kong, Xianghe, Nam Co, Akedala, Longfengshan, and Waliguan, this study found that both datasets exhibited systematic biases and lacked spatiotemporal consistency. The Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry simulation results exhibited an average relative bias of 23.17%, generally overestimated ozone concentrations in high-altitude regions, but outperformed the satellite-based estimates at the independent sites, while consistently underestimating ozone concentrations in densely populated urban areas. In contrast, the satellite-based estimates performed better in regions with dense monitoring sites, with mean biases typically within 10% of observations, but their accuracy was limited in remote areas due to sparse ground-based calibration. It is particularly noteworthy that both datasets showed deficiencies in capturing extremely high-value events, nighttime ozone variations, and dynamic transport processes, underscoring challenges in the representation of photochemical processes in the model and in the design of satellite estimation algorithms. The results highlight the importance of optimizing model parameterization schemes, improving satellite estimation algorithms, and integrating multi-source data to enhance the accuracy and stability of hourly ozone estimates. This study provides multi-scale quantitative insights into the relative strengths and limitations of different ozone estimation methods, laying a solid scientific foundation for future data integration, regional air quality management, and policy development. Full article

This study applies the Integrated Modification Methodology (IMM) to assess how morphology-driven, nature-based solutions reduce urban heat island (UHI) effects and flooding in Rio de Janeiro’s Cidade Nova. Multi-scale GIS diagnostics identify green continuity and vertical permeability as critical weaknesses. Simulations (Ladybug/Dragonfly) and hydrological modelling (rational method) quantify the intervention’s impact, including greening, material retrofits, and drainage upgrades. Results show a 38% increase in albedo, a 13% reduction in volumetric heat capacity, and a 30% drop in thermal conductivity. These changes reduce the peak UHI by 0.2 °C hourly, narrowing the urban–rural temperature gap to 3.5 °C (summer) and 4.3 °C (winter). Hydrologically, impervious cover decreases from 22% to 15%, permeable surfaces rise from 9% to 29%, and peak runoff volume drops by 27% (16,062 to 11,753 m³/h), mitigating flood risks. Green space expands from 7.8% to 21%, improving connectivity by 50% and improving park access. These findings demonstrate that IMM-guided interventions effectively enhance thermal and hydrological resilience in dense tropical cities, aligning with climate adaptation and the Sustainable Development Goals. Full article

This study proposes an intelligent patrol planning framework that leverages reinforcement learning, spatiotemporal crime forecasting, and simulated sensor telemetry to optimize autonomous vehicle (AV) navigation in urban environments. Crime incidents from Washington DC (2024–2025) and Seattle (2008–2024) are modeled as a dynamic spatiotemporal graph, capturing the evolving intensity and distribution of criminal activity across neighborhoods and time windows. The agent’s state space incorporates synthetic AV sensor inputs—including fuel level, visual anomaly detection, and threat signals—to reflect real-world operational constraints. We evaluate and compare three learning strategies: Deep Q-Network (DQN), Double Deep Q-Network (DDQN), and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). Experimental results show that DDQN outperforms DQN in convergence speed and reward accumulation, while PPO demonstrates greater adaptability in sensor-rich, high-noise conditions. Real-map simulations and hourly risk heatmaps validate the effectiveness of our approach, highlighting its potential to inform scalable, data-driven patrol strategies in next-generation smart cities. Full article

Traffic-related pollutants remain a challenging global issue, with significant policy implications. Within the European Union, Romania has the highest yearly societal cost per capita due to air pollution, which kills 29,000 Romanians every year, whereas the health and economic costs are also significant. In this context, municipal authorities in the country, particularly in high-density areas, should place a strong focus on mitigating air pollution. In particular, the capital city, Bucharest, ranks among the most congested cities in the world while registering the highest pollution index in Romania, with traffic pollution responsible for two-thirds of its air pollution. Consequently, studies that assess and model pollution trends are paramount to inform local policy-making processes and assist pollution-mitigation efforts. In this paper, a generalized additive modeling (GAM) framework is employed to model hourly concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), i.e., a relevant traffic-pollution proxy, at a busy urban traffic location in central Bucharest, Romania. All models are developed on a wide, fine-granularity dataset spanning January 2017–December 2022 and include extensive meteorological covariates. Model robustness is assured by switching between the generalized additive model (GAM) framework and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) framework when the residual autoregressive process needs to be specifically acknowledged. Results indicate that trend GAMs explain a large amount of the hourly variation in traffic pollution. Furthermore, meteorological factors contribute to increasing the models’ explanation power, with wind direction, relative humidity, and the interaction between wind speed and the atmospheric pressure emerging as important mitigators for NO₂ concentrations in Bucharest. The results of this study can be valuable in assisting local authorities to take proactive measures for traffic pollution control in the capital city of Romania. Full article

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasingly important for urban energy systems amid global climate change and the shift to renewable energy. Traditional PV deployment prioritizes maximizing energy output, often neglecting electricity price variability caused by time-of-use tariffs. This study develops a high-resolution planning and economic assessment model for building-integrated PV (BIPV) systems, incorporating hourly electricity real-time market prices, solar geometry, and submeter building spatial data. Wuhan (30.60° N, 114.05° E) serves as the case study to evaluate optimal PV placement and tilt angles on rooftops and façades, focusing on maximizing economic returns rather than energy production alone. The results indicate that adjusting rooftop PV tilt from a maximum generation angle (30°) to a maximum revenue angle (15°) slightly lowers generation but increases revenue, with west-facing orientations further improving returns by aligning output with peak electricity prices. For façades, south-facing panels yielded the highest output, while north-facing panels with tilt angles above 20° also showed significant potential. Façade PV systems demonstrated substantially higher generation potential—about 5 to 15 times that of rooftop PV systems under certain conditions. This model provides a spatially detailed, market-responsive framework supporting sustainable urban energy planning, quantifying economic and environmental benefits, and aligning with integrated approaches to urban sustainability. Full article

Urban environments present substantial obstacles to GPS positioning accuracy, primarily due to multipath interference and limited satellite visibility. To address these challenges, we propose a novel weighting approach, referred to as the HK model, that enhances real-time GPS positioning performance by leveraging the variability of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), without requiring auxiliary sensors. Analysis of 24 h observational datasets collected across diverse environments, including open-sky (OS), city streets (CS), and urban canyons (UC), demonstrates that multipath-affected non-line-of-sight (NLOS) signals exhibit significantly greater SNR variability than direct line-of-sight (LOS) signals. The HK model classifies received signals based on the standard deviation of their SNR and assigns corresponding weights during position estimation. Comparative performance evaluation indicates that relative to existing weighting models, the HK model improves 3D positioning accuracy by up to 22.4 m in urban canyon scenarios, reducing horizontal RMSE from 13.0 m to 4.7 m and vertical RMSE from 19.5 m to 6.9 m. In city street environments, horizontal RMSE is reduced from 11.6 m to 3.8 m. Furthermore, a time-sequential analysis at the TEHE site confirms consistent improvements in vertical positioning accuracy across all 24-hourly datasets, and in terms of horizontal accuracy, in 22 out of 24 cases. These results demonstrate that the HK model substantially surpasses conventional SNR- or elevation-based weighting techniques, particularly under severe multipath conditions frequently encountered in dense urban settings. Full article

The use of multimodal data can effectively compensate for the lack of temporal resolution in streetscape imagery-based studies and achieve hourly refinement in the study of street walkability dynamics. Exploring the 24 h dynamic pattern of urban street walkability and its diurnal variation characteristics is a crucial step in understanding and responding to the accelerated urban metabolism. Aiming at the shortcomings of existing studies, which are mostly limited to static assessment or only at coarse time scales, this study integrates multimodal data such as streetscape images, remote sensing images of nighttime lights, and text-described crowd activity information and introduces a novel approach to enhance the simulation of pedestrian perception through a visual–textual multimodal deep learning model. A baseline model for dynamic assessment of walkability with street as a spatial unit and hour as a time granularity is generated. In order to deeply explore the dynamic regulation mechanism of street walkability under the influence of diurnal shift, the 24 h dynamic score of walkability is calculated, and the quantification system of walkability diurnal change characteristics is further proposed. The results of spatio-temporal cluster analysis and quantitative calculations show that the intensity of economic activities and pedestrian experience significantly shape the diurnal pattern of walkability, e.g., urban high-energy areas (e.g., along the riverside) show unique nocturnal activity characteristics and abnormal recovery speeds during the dawn transition. This study fills the gap in the study of hourly street dynamics at the micro-scale, and its multimodal assessment framework and dynamic quantitative index system provide important references for future urban spatial dynamics planning. Full article

This study analyzes air pollution time-series big data to assess stationarity, seasonal patterns, and the performance of machine learning models in forecasting PM2.5 concentrations. Fifty-two low-cost sensors (LCS) were deployed across Krakow city and its surroundings (Poland), collecting hourly air quality data and generating nearly 20,000 observations per month. The network captured both spatial and temporal variability. The Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) test confirmed trend-based non-stationarity, which was addressed through differencing, revealing distinct daily and 12 h cycles linked to traffic and temperature variations. Additive seasonal decomposition exhibited time-inconsistent residuals, leading to the adoption of multiplicative decomposition, which better captured pollution outliers associated with agricultural burning. Machine learning models—Ridge Regression, XGBoost, and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) neural networks—were evaluated under high spatial and temporal variability (winter) and low variability (summer) conditions. Ridge Regression showed the best performance, achieving the highest $R^2$ (0.97 in winter, 0.93 in summer) and the lowest mean squared errors. XGBoost showed strong predictive capabilities but tended to overestimate moderate pollution events, while LSTM systematically underestimated PM2.5 levels in December. The residual analysis confirmed that Ridge Regression provided the most stable predictions, capturing extreme pollution episodes effectively, whereas XGBoost exhibited larger outliers. The study proved the potential of low-cost sensor networks and machine learning in urban air quality forecasting focused on rare smog episodes (RSEs). Full article

Air pollution, particularly fine (PM_2.5) and coarse (PM₁₀) particulate matter, poses significant risks to public health and environmental sustainability. This study aims to develop robust predictive and forecasting models for hourly PM concentrations in Craiova, Romania, using advanced hybrid Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches. A five-year dataset (2020–2024), comprising 20 meteorological and pollution-related variables recorded by four air quality monitoring stations, was analyzed. The methodology consists of three main phases: (i) data preprocessing, including anomaly detection and missing value handling; (ii) exploratory analysis to identify trends and correlations between PM concentrations (PMs) and predictor variables; and (iii) model development using 23 machine learning and deep learning algorithms, enhanced by 50 feature selection techniques. A deep Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (Deep-NARMAX) model was employed for multi-step-ahead forecasting. The best-performing models achieved R² values of 0.85 for PM_2.5 and 0.89 for PM₁₀, with low RMSE and MAPE scores, demonstrating high accuracy and generalizability. The GEO-based feature selection method effectively identified the most relevant predictors, while the Deep-NARMAX model captured temporal dynamics for accurate forecasting. These results highlight the potential of hybrid AI models for air quality management and provide a scalable framework for urban pollution monitoring, predicting, and forecasting. Full article

Accurate rainfall quantile estimation is critical for urban flood management, particularly given the escalating climate change impacts. This study comprehensively compared at-site frequency analysis and regional frequency analysis for sub-hourly rainfall quantile estimation, using data from 27 sites across Seoul. The analysis focused on Seoul’s disaster prevention framework (30-year and 100-year return periods). Employing L-moment statistics and Monte Carlo simulations, the rainfall quantiles were estimated, the methodological performance was evaluated, and Seoul’s current disaster prevention standards were assessed. The analysis revealed significant spatio-temporal variability in Seoul’s precipitation, causing considerable uncertainty in individual site estimates. A performance evaluation, including the relative root mean square error and confidence interval, consistently showed regional frequency analysis superiority over at-site frequency analysis. While at-site frequency analysis demonstrated better performance only for short return periods (e.g., 2 years), regional frequency analysis exhibited a substantially lower relative root mean square error and significantly narrower confidence intervals for larger return periods (e.g., 10, 30, 100 years). This methodology reduced the average 95% confidence interval width by a factor of approximately 2.7 (26.98 mm versus 73.99 mm). This enhanced reliability stems from the information-pooling capabilities of regional frequency analysis, mitigating uncertainties due to limited record lengths and localized variabilities. Critically, regionally derived 100-year rainfall estimates consistently exceeded Seoul’s 100 mm disaster prevention threshold across most areas, suggesting that the current infrastructure may be substantially under-designed. The use of minute-scale data underscored its necessity for urban hydrological modeling, highlighting the inadequacy of conventional daily rainfall analyses. Full article

The increasing levels of ozone pollution have become a significant environmental issue in urban areas worldwide. Previous studies have confirmed that the urban ozone pollution in China is mainly controlled by volatile organic compounds (VOCs) rather than nitrogen oxides. Therefore, a study on the emission characteristics and source analysis of VOCs is important for controlling urban ozone pollution. In this study, hourly concentrations of 57 VOC species in four groups were obtained in April 2022, a period of high ozone pollution in Kunming, China. The ozone formation potential analysis showed that the accumulated reactive VOCs significantly contributed to the subsequent ozone formation, particularly aromatics (44.16%) and alkanes (32.46%). In addition, the ozone production rate in Kunming is mainly controlled by VOCs based on the results of the empirical kinetic modeling approach (K_NOx/K_VOCs = 0.25). The hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory model and polar coordinate diagram showed high VOC and ozone concentrations from the southwest outside the province (50.28%) and the south in local areas (12.78%). Six factors were obtained from the positive matrix factorization model: vehicle exhaust (31.80%), liquefied petroleum gas usage (24.16%), the petrochemical industry (17.81%), fuel evaporation (11.79%), coal burning (7.47%), and solvent usage (6.97%). These findings underscore that reducing anthropogenic VOC emissions and strengthening controls on the related sources could provide a scientifically robust strategy for mitigating ozone pollution in Kunming. Full article