Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Sources
2.2. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Analysis
3.2. Acute Effects of Ambient Temperature on Daily Mortality
3.3. Lagged Effects of Temperature on Non-Accidental Mortality
3.4. Optimum Temperature
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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City | Number of Districts | Name of Districts | Population (× 104) |
---|---|---|---|
Beijing | 14 | Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chaoyang, Fengtai, Shijingshan, Haidian, Mentougou, Fangshan, Tongzhou, Shunyi, Changping, Daxing, Huairou, Pinggu | 1620.60 |
Tianjin | 11 | Hedong, Hexi, Heping, Nankai, Hebei, Hongqiao, Dagang, Tanggu, Dongli, Beichen, Hangu | 724.11 |
Xi'an | 6 | Xincheng, Beilin, Lianhu, Baqiao, Weiyang, Yanta | 450.57 |
Harbin | 6 | Daoli, Nangang, Daowai, Pingfang, Songbei, Xiangfang | 354.67 |
Shanghai | 10 | Huangpu, Luwan, Xuhui, Changning, Jingan, Putuo, Zhabei, Hongkou, Yangpu, Pudongxin | 958.07 |
Guangzhou | 8 | Liwan, Yuexiu, Haizhu, Tianhe , Baiyun, Huangpu, Fanyu, Huadu | 845.01 |
Wuhan | 8 | Jiangan, Jianghan, Qiaokou, Hanyang, Wuchang, Qingshan, Hongshan, Dongxihu | 600.70 |
Total | 63 | 5553.73 |
City | Variables | Min. | P(25) | Median | P(75) | Max. | Mean ± SD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beijing | temperature(°C) | −9.4 | 3.0 | 15.1 | 24.1 | 31.6 | 13.6 ± 10.9 |
humidity (%) | 11 | 36 | 53 | 69 | 97 | 52.5 ± 20.2 | |
PM10 | 7 | 72 | 116 | 160 | 600 | 130.7 ± 81.9 | |
mortality | 107 | 152 | 171 | 193 | 260 | 175 ± 28 | |
Tianjin | temperature(°C) | −10.5 | 2.6 | 14.6 | 23.9 | 31 | 13.3 ± 11.2 |
humidity (%) | 15 | 45 | 60 | 73 | 95 | 58.3 ± 18.3 | |
PM10 | 13 | 58 | 80 | 118 | 503 | 93.9 ± 55.4 | |
mortality | 56 | 90 | 100 | 113 | 175 | 101 ± 17 | |
Xi'an | temperature(°C) | −2.7 | 9.8 | 19.4 | 26.1 | 35.3 | 18.0 ± 9.4 |
humidity (%) | 21 | 61 | 70 | 79 | 97 | 69.6 ± 13.0 | |
PM10 | 18 | 72 | 106 | 144 | 567 | 112.9 ± 54.4 | |
mortality | 7 | 20 | 27 | 34 | 63 | 28 ± 10 | |
Harbin | temperature(°C) | −27 | −7.4 | 8.6 | 19.7 | 29.9 | 6.1 ± 14.4 |
humidity (%) | 17 | 51 | 63 | 72 | 96 | 61.1 ± 15.7 | |
PM10 | 12.6 | 62 | 84 | 124 | 600 | 99.6 ± 62.2 | |
mortality | 40 | 76 | 87 | 99 | 138 | 88 ± 16 | |
Shanghai | temperature(°C) | −3.4 | 9.8 | 18.7 | 25.2 | 34.6 | 17.6 ± 8.9 |
humidity (%) | 30 | 62 | 71 | 79 | 95 | 69.7 ± 12.1 | |
PM10 | 12 | 48 | 73 | 106 | 600 | 84.0 ± 52.5 | |
mortality | 70 | 96 | 106 | 119 | 167 | 108 ± 17 | |
Guangzhou | temperature(°C) | 5.4 | 18.3 | 24.6 | 27.8 | 33.5 | 22.8 ± 6.3 |
humidity (%) | 25 | 63 | 71 | 81 | 94 | 70.6 ± 13.3 | |
PM10 | 7 | 43 | 63 | 92 | 297 | 72.8 ± 41.4 | |
mortality | 17 | 37 | 51 | 61 | 106 | 51 ± 16 | |
Wuhan | temperature(°C) | −7.2 | 5.8 | 15.5 | 23 | 33.3 | 14.4 ± 9.7 |
humidity (%) | 19 | 52 | 66 | 78 | 100 | 64.9 ± 17 | |
PM10 | 29 | 82 | 114 | 144 | 556 | 121.3 ± 55.2 | |
mortality | 1 | 12 | 17 | 22 | 49 | 18 ± 7 |
City | Temperature | Excess Risk (%) |
---|---|---|
Beijing | high (>21 °C) | 0.36 (0.11, 0.62) * |
low (<21 °C) | 0.25 (0.00, 0.51) | |
Tianjin | high (>21 °C) | 0.43 (0.08, 0.78) * |
low (<21 °C) | 0.28 (−0.09, 0.65) | |
Xi'an | high (>21 °C) | 0.45 (−0.10, 1.00) |
low (<21 °C) | 0.43 (−0.15, 1.03) | |
Harbin | high (>21 °C) | 0.23 (−0.05, 0.51) |
low (<21 °C) | 0.14 (−0.13, 0.42) | |
Shanghai | high (>21 °C) | 0.75 (0.52, 0.98) * |
low (<21 °C) | 0.58 (0.33, 0.82) * | |
Guangzhou | high (>21 °C) | −0.03 (−0.45, 0.38) |
low (<21 °C) | −0.17 (−0.67, 0.32) | |
Wuhan | high (>21 °C) | −0.16 (−0.76, 0.45) |
low (<21 °C) | −0.5 (−1.16, 0.15) | |
Overall | high (>21 °C) | 0.33 (0.11, 0.56) * |
low (<21 °C) | 0.21 (−0.05, 0.48) |
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Zeng, Q.; Li, G.; Cui, Y.; Jiang, G.; Pan, X. Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 279. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13030279
Zeng Q, Li G, Cui Y, Jiang G, Pan X. Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2016; 13(3):279. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13030279
Chicago/Turabian StyleZeng, Qiang, Guoxing Li, Yushan Cui, Guohong Jiang, and Xiaochuan Pan. 2016. "Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 13, no. 3: 279. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13030279