Influence Factors on Injury Severity of Traffic Accidents and Differences in Urban Functional Zones: The Empirical Analysis of Beijing
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Analysis of Traffic Accidents in Beijing
2.2. Influence Factors on Traffic Accidents
3. Data
4. Methods
4.1. Pearson’s Chi-Squared Test
4.2. Binary Logistic Regression Analysis
4.3. Classification and Regression Tree Analysis
5. Findings
5.1. Pearson’s Chi-Squared Test
5.1.1. Whole City
5.1.2. Zone 1–4
5.2. Binary Logistic Regression Analysis
5.2.1. Whole City
5.2.2. Zone 1–4
5.3. Classification and Regression Tree Analysis
5.3.1. Whole City
5.3.2. Zone 1
5.3.3. Zone 2
5.3.4. Zone 3
5.3.5. Zone 4
6. Discussion
6.1. Consistence Analysis of BLR and CART
6.2. Comparative Analysis of Influencing Factors
6.2.1. Accident Type
6.2.2. Time Interval
6.2.3. Cross-section Position
6.2.4. Physical Isolation Facility
6.2.5. Road Type
6.2.6. Signal Control Mode
6.2.7. Visibility
6.2.8. Lighting Condition
6.3. Comparative Analysis of Urban Functional Zone
6.3.1. Whole City
6.3.2. Zone 1
6.3.3. Zone 2
6.3.4. Zone 3
6.3.5. Zone 4
7. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Zone | Traffic Accidents (unit) | Death Toll (unit) | Economic Loss (1000 yuan) |
---|---|---|---|
Zone 1: Dongcheng District Xicheng District | 146 | 25 | 80.8 |
Zone 2: Chaoyang District Fengtai District Shijingshan District Haidian District | 857 | 296 | 644.0 |
Zone 3: Fangshan District Tongzhou District Shunyi Distric Changping District Daxing Distric | 1318 | 457 | 991.0 |
Zone 4: Huairou District Pinggu District Miyun District Yanqing District Mentougou District Yizhuang District | 294 | 137 | 339.5 |
Variables | Definition | Mean Value | Standard Deviation |
---|---|---|---|
Severity | 1 = Death accident; 2 = Injury without death | 1.58 | 0.49 |
Accident attribute | |||
Accident type | 1 = 2 vehicles and above, without pedestrians or motor vehicles; 2 = 1 vehicle, without pedestrians or motor vehicles; 3 = 2 vehicles and above, with pedestrians or motor vehicles; 4 = 1 vehicle, with pedestrians or motor vehicles; 5 = Only pedestrians or motor vehicles | 2.79 | 1.45 |
Time of occurrence | |||
Day of the week | 1 = Monday; 2 = Tuesday; 3 = Wednesday; 4 = Thursday; 5 = Friday; 6 = Saturday; 7 = Sunday | 4.04 | 1.96 |
Time interval | 1 = 0:00–6:00; 2 = 6:00–12:00; 3 = 12:00–18:00; 4 = 18:00–24:00 | 2.75 | 1.05 |
Infrastructure | |||
Cross-section position | 1 = Motorized Lane; 2 = Non-motorized Lane; 3 = Mixed Lane; 4 = Sidewalk; 5 = Pedestrian crossing; 6 = Emergency parking area; 7 = Others | 1.88 | 1.67 |
Central isolation facility | 1 = Green area; 2 = Concrete retaining; 3 = Isolated piers (columns); 4 = Others | 3.13 | 1.18 |
Physical isolation facility | 1 = No isolation; 2 = Central isolation; 3 = Isolation between motor and non-motor vehicle; 4 = Center of isolation and isolation between motor and non-motor vehicle | 1.71 | 0.73 |
Pavement condition | 1 = Good condition; 2 = Under construction; 3 = Concave-convex; 4 = Collapse; 5 = Barricade | 1.03 | 0.26 |
Pavement structure | 1 = Bitumen; 2 = Cement; 3 = Sand or stone; 4 = Soil road; 5 = Others | 1.03 | 0.24 |
Intersections type | 1 = Intersection; 2 = General section; 3 = Others | 1.73 | 0.51 |
Road line style | 1 = Straight; 2 = Curve | 1.04 | 0.20 |
Road type | 1 = Highway; 2 = Urban Expressway; 3 = Urban trunk road; 4 = Other urban roads; 5 = High grade road; 6 = Others | 3.87 | 1.28 |
Management status | |||
Road safety attribute | 1 = Normal road; 2 = Section with lurking peril managed; 3 = Section with lurking peril being managed; 4 = Section with lurking peril but not managed; 5 = Others | 2.23 | 1.77 |
Signal control mode | 1 = No signal; 2 = Other security facilities; 3 = Signal | 1.83 | 0.68 |
Environment condition | |||
Weather | 1 = Sunny; 2 = Cloudy; 3 = Rainy; 4 = Snowy; 5 = Foggy; 6 = Windy; 7 = Dust; 8 = Hailstones; 9 = Others | 1.22 | 0.64 |
Visibility | 1 = Under 50m; 2 = 50–100 m; 3 = 100–200 m; 4 = More than 200m | 3.03 | 1.03 |
Lighting condition | 1 = Daytime; 2 = Night with street lamp lighting; 3 = Night without street lamp lighting; 4 = Dawn; 5 = Dust | 1.72 | 0.91 |
Road surface condition | 1 = Dry; 2 = Damp; 3 = Ponding; 4 = Overflowing; 5 = Ice and snow; 6 = Others | 1.15 | 0.73 |
Zone | Severity | Accident Type | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y = 1 | Y = 2 | X1 = 1 | X1 = 2 | X1 = 3 | X1 = 4 | X1 = 5 | |
Whole city | 42.4% | 57.6% | 34.9% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 48.4% | 4.5% |
Zone 1 | 28.1% | 71.9% | 23.1% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 60.3% | 8.7% |
Zone 2 | 39.5% | 60.5% | 33.1% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 50.5% | 4.5% |
Zone 3 | 43.9% | 56.1% | 36.4% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 46.5% | 4.9% |
Zone 4 | 49.3% | 50.7% | 38.6% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 45.5% | 2.4% |
Zone | Permanent Resident Population (Ten Thousand) | Permanent Resident Population per Square Kilometer | Car Ownership | Car Ownership per 1000 People |
---|---|---|---|---|
Whole city | 2170.5 | 1323 | 5,349,989 | 246.5 |
Zone 1 | 220.3 | 23,845 | 933,336 | 423.7 |
Zone 2 | 1062.5 | 8327 | 2,599,993 | 244.7 |
Zone 3 | 696.9 | 1107 | 1,417,004 | 203.3 |
Zone 4 | 190.8 | 218 | 399,656 | 209.4 |
Variables | Whole City | Zone 1 | Zone 2 | Zone 3 | Zone 4 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accident attribute | |||||
Accident type | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Time of occurrence | |||||
Day of the week | - | - | - | - | - |
Time interval | 0.000 | - | 0.037 | 0.003 | 0.019 |
Infrastructure | |||||
Cross-section position | 0.000 | 0.007 | 0.000 | - | 0.025 |
Central isolation facility | - | - | - | 0.000 | - |
Physical isolation facility | 0.030 | - | - | 0.006 | - |
Pavement condition | 0.012 | 0.028 | - | - | - |
Pavement structure | - | - | 0.031 | - | - |
Intersections type | 0.012 | - | 0.031 | - | - |
Road line style | 0.021 | - | - | 0.006 | - |
Road type | 0.000 | 0.009 | - | 0.000 | 0.003 |
Management status | |||||
Road safety attribute | - | - | 0.037 | - | - |
Signal control mode | 0.017 | - | - | 0.000 | - |
Environment condition | |||||
Weather | - | - | 0.013 | - | - |
Visibility | 0.000 | - | 0.008 | 0.000 | - |
Lighting condition | 0.000 | - | - | 0.000 | 0.014 |
Road surface condition | - | - | - | - | - |
Variables | Whole City | Zone 1 | Zone 2 | Zone 3 | Zone 4 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sig. | Exp(B) | Sig. | Exp(B) | Sig. | Exp(B) | Sig. | Exp(B) | Sig. | Exp(B) | |
Accident attribute | ||||||||||
Accident type | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |||||
1 | 1.598 | 0.072 | 0.696 | 5.401 | 1.056 | |||||
2 | 4.422 | 0.337 | 1.927 | 13.304 | 4.391 | |||||
3 | 3.353 | 5.134 | 1.718 | 6.567 | 5.523 | |||||
4 | 2.401 | 0.424 | 1.272 | 6.665 | 1.781 | |||||
5 | # | # | # | # | # | |||||
Time of occurrence | ||||||||||
Time interval | - | - | - | - | 0.050 | |||||
1 | 2.586 | |||||||||
2 | 1.223 | |||||||||
3 | 1.112 | |||||||||
4 | # | |||||||||
Infrastructure | ||||||||||
Cross-section position | 0.001 | 0.031 | 0.001 | - | 0.048 | |||||
1 | 0.794 | 0.468 | 0.722 | 0.470 | ||||||
2 | 0.584 | 0.140 | 0.380 | 0.332 | ||||||
3 | 0.723 | 0.096 | 0.514 | 0.768 | ||||||
4 | 2.105 | 0.738 | 1.195 | 1.239 | ||||||
5 | 0.614 | 0.414 | 0.325 | 2.171 | ||||||
6 | 2.858 | / | 2.884 | / | ||||||
7 | # | # | # | # | ||||||
Central isolation facility | - | - | - | 0.000 | - | |||||
1 | 1.177 | |||||||||
2 | 2.261 | |||||||||
3 | 2.355 | |||||||||
4 | # | |||||||||
Physical isolation facility | 0.007 | - | - | 0.000 | - | |||||
1 | 1.059 | 0.877 | ||||||||
2 | 0.846 | 0.455 | ||||||||
3 | 1.334 | 1.349 | ||||||||
4 | # | # | ||||||||
Road type | 0.000 | 0.024 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | |||||
1 | 2.231 | / | 2.326 | 4.375 | ||||||
2 | 1.091 | 0.544 | 1.291 | 6.900E8 | ||||||
3 | 0.994 | 0.298 | 1.836 | 0.494 | ||||||
4 | 1.170 | # | 1.738 | 0.798 | ||||||
5 | 1.502 | / | 1.859 | 1.015 | ||||||
6 | # | / | # | # | ||||||
Management status | ||||||||||
Signal control mode | 0.001 | - | - | 0.004 | - | |||||
1 | 0.785 | 1.003 | ||||||||
2 | 1.060 | 1.428 | ||||||||
3 | # | # | ||||||||
Environment condition | ||||||||||
Visibility | 0.000 | - | 0.004 | 0.000 | - | |||||
1 | 0.590 | 0.143 | 0.662 | 0.489 | ||||||
2 | 1.028 | 0.074 | 1.326 | 0.953 | ||||||
3 | 1.273 | 0.004 | 1.564 | 1.336 | ||||||
4 | # | # | # | |||||||
Lighting condition | 0.000 | - | - | 0.000 | - | |||||
1 | 1.020 | 1.227 | ||||||||
2 | 0.914 | 1.108 | ||||||||
3 | 2.162 | 3.153 | ||||||||
4 | 2.044 | 2.390 | ||||||||
5 | # | # |
Variables | Whole City | Zone 1 | Zone 2 | Zone 3 | Zone 4 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accident attribute | |||||
Accident type | 80.8% | 100.0% | 100% | 55.4% | 100.0% |
Time of occurrence | |||||
Day of the week | - | - | - | - | - |
Time interval | * | - | 37.5% | * | 62.9% |
Infrastructure | |||||
Cross-section position | * | 43.1% | 68.3% | - | 58.2% |
Central isolation facility | - | - | - | 38.6% | - |
Physical isolation facility | * | - | - | 47.2% | - |
Pavement condition | * | 31.1% | - | - | - |
Pavement structure | - | - | * | - | - |
Intersections type | * | - | * | - | - |
Road line style | * | - | - | * | - |
Road type | 41.8% | 40.3% | - | 84.7% | 53.4% |
Management status | |||||
Road safety attribute | - | - | * | - | - |
Signal control mode | 25.2% | - | - | 44.0% | - |
Environment condition | |||||
Weather | - | - | 42.0% | - | - |
Visibility | 28.8% | - | 55.3% | 62.9% | - |
Lighting condition | 100.0% | - | - | 100.0% | 36.5% |
Road surface condition | - | - | - | - | - |
Zone | BLR | CART |
---|---|---|
Whole city | Accident type, cross-section position, physical isolation facility, road type, signal control mode, visibility, lighting condition | Lighting condition, accident type, road type, visibility, signal control mode |
Zone 1 | accident type, cross-section position, road type | Accident type, cross-section position, road type, pavement condition |
Zone 2 | Accident type, cross-section position, visibility | Accident type, cross-section position, visibility, weather, time interval |
Zone 3 | Accident type, signal control mode, visibility, lighting condition | lighting condition, road type, visibility, Accident type, physical isolation facility, signal control mode, central isolation facility |
Zone 4 | Accident type, time interval, cross-section position, road type | Accident type, time interval, cross-section position, road type, lighting condition |
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Sun, Z.; Wang, J.; Chen, Y.; Lu, H. Influence Factors on Injury Severity of Traffic Accidents and Differences in Urban Functional Zones: The Empirical Analysis of Beijing. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 2722. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15122722
Sun Z, Wang J, Chen Y, Lu H. Influence Factors on Injury Severity of Traffic Accidents and Differences in Urban Functional Zones: The Empirical Analysis of Beijing. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2018; 15(12):2722. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15122722
Chicago/Turabian StyleSun, Zhiyuan, Jianyu Wang, Yanyan Chen, and Huapu Lu. 2018. "Influence Factors on Injury Severity of Traffic Accidents and Differences in Urban Functional Zones: The Empirical Analysis of Beijing" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15, no. 12: 2722. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15122722