Responses of Water Level in China’s Largest Freshwater Lake to the Meteorological Drought Index (SPEI) in the Past Five Decades

Poyang Lake, which is the largest freshwater lake in China, is an important regional water resource and iconic ecosystem that has experienced a period of continuous low water level in recent years. In this paper, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was applied to analyze the temporal variability and spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological drought over the Poyang Lake Basin during 1961–2015. In addition, correlation analysis was used to investigate the response relationship between lake level and meteorological drought in the basin. The main results showed that: (1) The decline of water level in Poyang Lake since 2000 has been dramatic, especially in autumn, when the downward speed reached 11.26 cm/day. (2) The meteorological drought in the Poyang Lake Basin has obvious seasonal characteristics, and drying tendencies in spring and autumn were relatively obvious. Following the 1960s, this basin entered a new drought period in the 2000s. (3) The results of correlation analysis showed that three- and six-month timescales were the optimum times for the lake level to respond to the SPEI in the Poyang Lake Basin. Seasonally, the correlation was best in winter and worst in autumn. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of correlations was: Hukou < Xingzi < Duchang < Wucheng < Tangyin < Kangshan. Overall, the results of this study quantified the response of lake level to meteorological drought in the context of climate change, and they provide a reliable scientific basis for water resource management in similar basins.