Belief Reliability Modeling Method for Wind Farms Considering Two-Directional Rotor Equivalent Wind Speed
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Preliminaries
2.1. Belief Reliability Theory
2.2. Three-Dimensional Jensen-Gaussian (3DJG) Wake Model
3. Belief Reliability Model for Wind Farm
3.1. Description of Wind Farm
3.1.1. Wind Farm Layout
3.1.2. Wind Farm Interference Relationship
3.2. Belief Reliability Analysis of Wind Farm
3.2.1. Wind Farm Margin Equation
3.2.2. Wind Farm Uncertainty Measurement
3.2.3. Wind Farm Metric Equation
4. Power Generation Model Based on Two-Directional Rotor Equivalent Wind Speed
4.1. Two-Directional Rotor Equivalent Wind Speed (2D-REWS) Model
4.2. Wind Farm Power Generation Affected by Multiple Wakes
5. Numerical Examples
5.1. Power of Wind Farm under Different Wind Speeds and Directions
5.1.1. Under Different Wind Speeds
- The power of wind farms under different wind speeds basically conforms to their variation law with wind speed;
- 2.
- The power output of wind farms exhibits noticeable differences when the influence of wake is considered. This is especially pronounced when the wind speed approaches the rated wind speed and when it exceeds the cut-out wind speed.
5.1.2. Under Different Wind Directions
5.2. Belief Reliability of Wind Farm with Wind Speed Uncertainty
5.2.1. Wind Farm Belief Reliability under Classical Wind Distribution
5.2.2. Reliability Comparison with Different Dispersion Degrees of Wind Distribution
- The uncertainty of the wind farm performance margin is positively correlated with the uncertainty of wind speed.
- 2.
- The belief reliability of a wind farm is positively correlated with the uncertainty of wind speed.
5.3. Comparison of Belief Reliability Considering HHWS, REWS and 2D-REWS
6. Conclusions
- Only based on the performance margin and its threshold of wind farms, the proposed belief reliability modeling method allows for reliability analysis without relying on wind turbine failure information.
- A 2D-REWS model was introduced, which incorporates a power generation model to enable belief reliability analysis that accounts for variations in wind speed across different heights and widths of wind turbines.
- Numerical examples demonstrate that the variation of wind farm power with wind speed and direction is consistent with the actual patterns, the uncertainties in performance margin and belief reliability of a wind farm are both positively correlated with uncertainties in wind speed, and the belief reliability model considering 2D-REWS is more reasonable.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Wind Turbine Order Number | (m) | (m) | (m) |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 10 | 3000 | 0 |
2 | 500 | 3500 | 0 |
3 | 800 | 2500 | 0 |
4 | 1000 | 4000 | 0 |
5 | 1300 | 2000 | 0 |
6 | 1700 | 1500 | 0 |
7 | 1700 | 3500 | 0 |
8 | 2100 | 1000 | 0 |
9 | 2200 | 3500 | 0 |
Parameter | Value |
---|---|
Rotor diameter | 70 m |
65 m | |
0.705 | |
3.5 m/s | |
13.5 m/s | |
25 m/s | |
1700 kW | |
0.28 |
Wind Farm Layout | HHWS | REWS | 2D-REWS |
---|---|---|---|
A | 0.845 | 0.840 | 0.830 |
B | 0.780 | 0.785 | 0.790 |
C | 0.840 | 0.840 | 0.835 |
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Li, S.; Kang, R.; Wen, M.; Zu, T. Belief Reliability Modeling Method for Wind Farms Considering Two-Directional Rotor Equivalent Wind Speed. Symmetry 2024, 16, 614. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym16050614
Li S, Kang R, Wen M, Zu T. Belief Reliability Modeling Method for Wind Farms Considering Two-Directional Rotor Equivalent Wind Speed. Symmetry. 2024; 16(5):614. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym16050614
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Shuyu, Rui Kang, Meilin Wen, and Tianpei Zu. 2024. "Belief Reliability Modeling Method for Wind Farms Considering Two-Directional Rotor Equivalent Wind Speed" Symmetry 16, no. 5: 614. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym16050614