Sensitivity Analysis of Start Point of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using CRHUDA and Stochastic Models

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

The paper titled "Sensitivity Analysis of Start Point of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using CRHUDA and Stochastic Models" by Martin Muñoz Mandujano et al. focuses on forecasting extreme precipitation using the CRHUDA model, which is based on the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. The paper presents the calibration of the CRHUDA+ARMA(pq) model, suggesting CRHUDA's suitability for precipitation forecasting and potential use in Early Warning Systems.

My specific comments are below:

Methodological Rigor: While the methods used are complex and seem sound, there is a need for a more detailed explanation of the model calibration and validation processes. This should include a discussion of any assumptions made and their potential impact on the results.

Language: Line 317 is not English.

Clarity and Structure: The paper could benefit from a clearer structure. Some sections seem overly technical and might be difficult for readers not specialized in this area. A more detailed introduction to the sensitivity analysis could enhance comprehension.

Author Response

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Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors The objective of this work is to provide a proportional scaling factor to allow the use of the time series used in the CRHUDA model in order to improve the forecast of the onset of precipitation. Basically, this study is of a certain innovation. Some queries are listed below: 1) The paragraphs in Introductions are too long to follow 2) Data description is too rough. How much data is used? Could you provide a descriptive statistics. 3) Sensitivity analysis is usually used to see the influence of parameters value to the results. But in this study,it seems to be designed only for scaling factor Beta. Why? Is Beta a parameter or a variable?  Comments on the Quality of English Language

Fine

Author Response

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Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 3 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

The authors conducted an interesting forecasting study aimed to predict extreme precipitation events from the three measured variables: humidity, dew point, and air pressure. The study is a continuation of their previous research on the same topic, but it includes the scaling factor designed to improve the model predictive performance.  Even though the research looks interesting to be published, it would be beneficial to improve it to make it more consistent.

The research mentions only a few similar extreme precipitation prediction model approaches. It is not clear whether this is the complete set or the small selection of the currently developed models. This should be done in the Introduction at least.

The scaling factor development is the core of the current study. The calculation of the factor looks somehow cumbersome and incomplete. It is shown that the factor varies significantly with each storm event (Table 1) and the improper factor can even break the prediction pattern (Figure 10), and also it is unclear from the text how the factor is calculated in practice. Probably, the factor is easy to estimate post-factum, however, it should be estimated before the precipitation occurred to be useful in the prediction mode.    

Unfortunately, there is no comparison in model performances to other existing models provided to show the real benefits for using the current model scheme.  This could be done in the Discussion section.

Short notes:

Figures 5 to 8 - it seems that some of these figures contain the same subsets of graphs.  Also the sets of presented graphs should be properly described, which needs to be fixed.

Kind regards,  

Author Response

Please see the attachment

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Round 2

Reviewer 1 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

The author has addressed most of my concerns.

Reviewer 3 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

I would like to thank the Authors of the manuscript for paying attention and properly responding and adding the requested part of the text that improved the understandability of the manuscript.

I think the manuscript can be accepted to publication.

Kind regards,