Seismic Hazard in Greece: A Comparative Study for the Region of East Macedonia and Thrace

Greece is located in one of the most seismically active regions in Europe. Many seismic hazard studies have been performed for various sites around Greece, at a regional or local scale. However, the latest national seismic hazard map, currently used for the seismic design of buildings and infrastructure, was published in 2000 and has not been updated since then. In light of recent advances in seismic source and ground motion modeling, the present study focuses on a comparative Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for the region of East Macedonia and Thrace (EMTH), located in Northern Greece. Various seismic source models are implemented and compared against an updated earthquake catalog to form the necessary source model logic tree. The ground motion logic tree is composed of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), which have been proven suitable for implementation in Greece. PSHA results are presented for the most important cities of East Macedonia and Thrace in a comparative way, which highlights the variability of the seismic hazard among the various seismic source models. An updated seismic hazard map of the study area is proposed, and a comparative disaggregation analysis is performed to estimate the earthquake scenarios with the largest contribution to the seismic hazard.