Horizontal Rates of Wetland Migration Appear Unlikely to Keep Pace with Shoreline Transgression under Conditions of 21st Century Accelerating Sea Level Rise along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern USA
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials & Methods
2.1. Wetland Horizontal Migration
2.2. Shoreline Transgression
3. Results
3.1. Wetland Horizontal Migration
3.2. Shoreline Transgression
3.3. Assessing Wetland Resilience during the 21st Century
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Region of Focus | Study Area | Geographic Location | Rate (m yr−1) of Horizontal Wetland Migration or Forest Dieback | Habitat | Time Interval | Ref. | Contemporaneous Rate (mm yr−1) of Sea Level Rise | Source a |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Delaware Bay | 1A | Cumberland & Cape May Counties, NJ | 0.5 | SM | 1930–2006 | [37] | 3.0 | A |
1.8 | F | 1930–2006 | [37] | 3.0 | A | |||
1B | Stow Creek, NJ | 7.5 2 | SM | 1991–2017 | [33] | 3.5 | A | |
1C | Bombay Hook, DE | 7.5 2 | SM | 1991–2017 | [33] | 3.5 | A | |
Chesapeake Bay | 2A1a | Hell Hook Marsh, MD | 3.5 | SM | 1850–2000 (h) | [28] | 2.4 | A |
0.2 | SM | >150 yrs ago (g) | [28] | 0.8 | B | |||
2A1b | 2.2 | SM | 1872–2015 (h) | [38] | nd | |||
0.3 | SM | >150 years ago (g) | [38] | 0.8 | B | |||
2A2a | Cedar Creek Marsh, MD | 6.8 | SM | 1850–2000 (h) | [28] | 2.4 | A | |
1.3 | SM | >150 years ago (g) | [28] | 0.8 | B | |||
2A2b | 1.9 | SM | 1872–2015 (h) | [38] | nd | |||
0.7 | SM | >150 years ago (g) | [38] | 0.8 | B | |||
2A3 | Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge | 4.7 | F | 2001–2020 | [39] | nd | ||
3.1 | F | 1985–2000 | [39] | nd | ||||
2B | Goodwin Island, VA | 3.3 | SM | 1872–2015 (h) | [38] | nd | ||
0.3 | SM | >150 years ago (g) | [38] | 0.8 | B | |||
Pamlico Sound | 3A | Long Shoal River, NC | 4.6 | SM | 1872–2015 (h) | [38] | nd | |
0.4 | SM | >150 years ago (g) | [38] | 0.8 | B | |||
3B1 | Cedar Island, NC | 1.7 | SM | 1872–2015 (h) | [38] | nd | ||
0.4 | SM | >150 years ago (g) | [38] | 0.8 | B | |||
3B2 | Long Bay, NC | 1.2 | SM | ~1808–present (h) | [40] | 2.4 | A | |
3B3 | Nelson Bay, NC | 8.6 | SM | last 60 years | [40] | 2.4 | A | |
South Florida | 4A1 | Southeast Saline Everglades, FL | 3.1 | M | 1960–2000 | [41] | 2.6 | C |
0.1 | M | 3000–300 yBP (g) | [41] | 0.8 | B | |||
4A2 | 31.0 | M | 1938–1952 | [42] | 2.6 | C | ||
4B | Southeast Saline Everglades, FL | 55.0 | M | ~1940–present | [43] | 2.6 | C | |
4C | Ten Thousand Islands, FL | 63.0 | M | 1927–2005 | [44] | 2.6 | C | |
Northwest Florida | 5A | Big Bend, FL | 2.3 | SM | 120 years (h) | [45] | 2.3 | D |
4.2 | F | 120 years (h) | [45] | 2.3 | D |
Region of Focus | Study Area | Land Slope (m km−1) a | 2050 Sea Level Elevation (m) Relative to 2020 b | Distance (m) of Shoreline Transgression 2020–2050 | Average Rate (m y−1) of Shoreline Transgression 2020–2050 | Distance (m) of Wetland Migration or Forest Dieback 2020–2050 | 2050 Distance (m) between Migrating Wetland and Transgressing Shoreline | Habitat |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Delaware Bay | 1A | 0.8 | 0.55 | 717 | 23.9 | 16 | 701 | SM |
54 | na | F | ||||||
1B | 0.3 | 0.55 | 1792 | 59.7 | 225 | 1567 | SM | |
1C | 0.3 | 0.55 | 1792 | 59.7 | 225 | 1567 | SM | |
Chesapeake Bay | 2A1a | 0.1 | 0.57 | 5587 | 186.2 | 105 | 5482 | SM |
2A1b | 0.1 | 0.57 | 5587 | 186.2 | 65 | 5521 | SM | |
2A2a | 0.1 | 0.57 | 5587 | 186.2 | 203 | 5383 | SM | |
2A2b | 0.1 | 0.57 | 5587 | 186.2 | 56 | 5531 | SM | |
2A3 | 0.1 | 140 | na | F | ||||
92 | na | F | ||||||
2B | 0.1 | 0.57 | 5587 | 186.2 | 99 | 5488 | SM | |
Pamlico Sound | 3A | 0.3 | 0.51 | 1708 | 56.9 | 138 | 1570 | SM |
3B1 | 1.5 | 0.51 | 342 | 11.4 | 50 | 292 | SM | |
3B2 | 1.1 | 0.51 | 466 | 15.5 | 35 | 431 | SM | |
3B3 | 0.7 | 0.51 | 732 | 24.4 | 259 | 473 | SM | |
South Florida | 4A1 | 0.1 | 0.47 | 4656 | 153.2 | 93 | 4563 | M |
4A2 | 0.1 | 0.47 | 4656 | 153.2 | 930 | 3726 | M | |
4B | 0.1 | 0.47 | 4656 | 153.2 | 1650 | 3006 | M | |
4C | 0.1 | 0.47 | 4656 | 153.2 | 1890 | 2766 | M | |
Northwest Florida | 5A | 0.4 | 0.46 | 1160 | 38.7 | 69 | 1091 | SM |
126 | na | F |
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Parkinson, R.W. Horizontal Rates of Wetland Migration Appear Unlikely to Keep Pace with Shoreline Transgression under Conditions of 21st Century Accelerating Sea Level Rise along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern USA. Coasts 2024, 4, 213-225. https://doi.org/10.3390/coasts4010012
Parkinson RW. Horizontal Rates of Wetland Migration Appear Unlikely to Keep Pace with Shoreline Transgression under Conditions of 21st Century Accelerating Sea Level Rise along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern USA. Coasts. 2024; 4(1):213-225. https://doi.org/10.3390/coasts4010012
Chicago/Turabian StyleParkinson, Randall W. 2024. "Horizontal Rates of Wetland Migration Appear Unlikely to Keep Pace with Shoreline Transgression under Conditions of 21st Century Accelerating Sea Level Rise along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern USA" Coasts 4, no. 1: 213-225. https://doi.org/10.3390/coasts4010012