Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey
Abstract
:1. Introduction
Objective
2. Experimental Section
2.1. Step 1: Initial Identification of Priority Research Areas
- (a)
- had the capacity to impact positively one or more negative aspects of the interface between climate change and NCDs
- (b)
- were amenable to mitigation through legal and ethical frameworks and governance systems
- (c)
- had the potential to address critical deficits in our knowledge and understanding of how to mitigate and/or manage effects of the current NCD and climate change crises.
2.2. Step 2: An International Delphi Process
2.2.1. Identification of Priority Research Questions
2.2.2. Delphi Participants
2.2.3. Data Collection
- -
- were of central importance to the global response to NCD prevention and climate change;
- -
- addressed a knowledge or evidence deficit that is preventing progress in an area of high importance to the overlap between mitigating or adapting to climate change and preventing or significantly reducing the impact of NCDs and/or which focused on social and health justice issues;
- -
- addressed problems at the interface between NCDs and climate change which may be amenable to modification through legal interventions;
- -
- had a degree of urgency or immediacy.
2.2.4. Analysis
- -
- majority agreement to include as a high priority;
- -
- ranking of order of importance as a high priority;
- -
- majority agreement to identify as a low priority.
2.3. Step 3: Verification and Deconstruction of the Final Priority Questions
3. Results
3.1. Workshop Participants
3.2. Workshop Output
3.3. Delphi Process
3.4. Round 1 Results
3.5. Round 2 Results
Characteristic | Round 1 | Round 2 |
---|---|---|
n-size | n-size | |
Response rate | 46 | 22 |
Subjects | ||
Male / Female | 30/8 | 15/6 |
Location | ||
Europe | 18 | 9 |
Oceania | 8 | 5 |
United States | 5 | 4 |
Caribbean | 2 | 1 |
Canada | 1 | - |
Africa | 1 | 1 |
South America | 1 | 1 |
India | 1 | - |
South East Asia | 1 | - |
Discipline | ||
Public health(incl.epidemiology) | 21 | 11 |
Law (public health/social justice) | 4 | 3 |
Geography | 3 | 2 |
Agriculture | 2 | 2 |
Transport | 2 | 1 |
Policy | 1 | 1 |
Nutrition | 1 | 1 |
Environmental health | 1 | - |
Planning (urban) | 2 | - |
Economics | 1 | - |
Sector | ||
Academia | 22 | 10 |
Not-for profit organisation | 3 | 3 |
Government | 12 | 7 |
Industry | 1 | 1 |
Question | Area | n | % |
---|---|---|---|
Access to potable water for human consumption and agriculture: what current best practices are needed to provide equitable access to water between geographic regions and usage demands? Are new best practices needed given climate change? | F | 20 | 95 |
How do national agricultural policies affect urban food security in different regions? | F | 20 | 95 |
What are the most effective ways to shift consumer demand from the “western” diet to a more diverse predominantly plant-based diet? | BCI | 20 | 95 |
What are the likely environmental effects of a fat tax/healthy subsidy to encourage healthier diet? | RGP | 20 | 95 |
What are the most appropriate policies to shift from private motorized transport to healthier and cleaner transport alternatives? | U | 19 | 90.5 |
How can the harms that lead to NCDs be described and conceptualised in a way that more easily supports policy formation? | BCI | 19 | 90.5 |
How can housing policies contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation? | U | 19 | 90.5 |
What are the methodologies to measure the impact of sustainable urban development and transport on health? | U | 19 | 90.5 |
What are effective incentives and disincentives for healthy and unhealthy food consumption which also promote low-carbon solutions? | F | 19 | 90.5 |
What metrics, policies and governance structures are needed to address tough trade-offs needed in shifting agricultural patterns underway, especially aimed at reducing long term demand for meat and palm and developing a more diverse diet? | F | 19 | 90.5 |
- -
- best practices for access to potable water
- -
- policies for shifting motorised transport to cleaner healthy transport
- -
- describing NCDS in a way that supports policy change
Question | Area | n | % |
---|---|---|---|
How can car-dependent cities shrink their carbon footprints in a way that reduces health inequalities? | U | 12 | 75 |
What are the cost-benefits of fiscal policies such as a fat tax/ healthy subsidies, taking into account the potential benefits or costs that they might have in terms of environmental effects? | ETB | 9 | 75 |
Access to potable water for human consumption and agriculture: what current best practices are needed to provide equitable access to water between geographic regions and usage demands? Are new best practices needed given climate change? | F | 13 | 68 |
Which strategies are the most appropriate to improve food security through small-scale farming and environmentally sustainable food production? | F | 11 | 65 |
How can the health and climate change agendas be better aligned with those of urban planners and real estate developers? | U | 11 | 65 |
What are the most appropriate policies to shift from private motorized transport to healthier and cleaner transport alternatives? | U | 11 | 65 |
How can food needs be defined to meet optimal nutrition within an environmentally sustainable agricultural program? | F | 9 | 64 |
How can we effectively predict crop production changes due to climate change and effects on food security (crop adaptation in regions most likely affected)? | F | 9 | 64 |
What joint mechanisms can countries put in place to reduce the negative impacts of trade on climate change and NCDs? | ETB | 9 | 64 |
How to change behaviour (as a collective rather than as individuals) to a highly active, low carbon transport system- (a question for primary research and for systems modelling). How to minimise rebound effects for a behaviour change? | BCI | 10 | 62.5 |
How to develop evaluation tools for social decision making that go beyond cost benefit analysis approaches? | RGP | 10 | 62.5 |
How can the harms that lead to NCDs be described and conceptualised in a way that more easily supports policy formation? | BCI | 11 | 61 |
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Files
Supplementary File 1Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Colagiuri, R.; Boylan, S.; Morrice, E. Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 12941-12957. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph121012941
Colagiuri R, Boylan S, Morrice E. Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2015; 12(10):12941-12957. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph121012941
Chicago/Turabian StyleColagiuri, Ruth, Sinead Boylan, and Emily Morrice. 2015. "Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12, no. 10: 12941-12957. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph121012941