Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Emissions
2.1.1. Emissions from Sugarcane Straw Burning
2.1.2. Vehicle Emissions
2.1.3. Other Emissions
2.2. Air Quality Modeling
2.3. Health Impact Calculations
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
CCATT-BRAMS | Coupled Chemistry Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System |
CI | Confidence interval |
EE | Ethanol Expansion (scenario) |
FF | Fossil Fuel (scenario) |
MW | Megawatt |
NOx | oxides of nitrogen |
PM2.5 | Fine particulate matter |
VOC | Volatile organic compound |
WHO | World Health Organization |
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Study | Exposure | Mortality Cause * | Percent Change (95% CI) |
---|---|---|---|
Main results | |||
Hoek et al. (2013) [45] and Forestiere et al. (2014) [44] | 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 annual average | Cardiovascular | 10.0 (5.0,15.0) |
Hamra et al. (2014) [46] | 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 annual average | Lung cancer | 9.0 (4.0,14.0) |
Jerrett et al. (2009) [47] | 10 ppb O3 warm-season average of 1 h max | Respiratory † | 4.0 (1.3,6.7) |
Supplementary analyses | |||
Hoek et al. (2013) [45] and Forestiere et al. (2014) [44] | 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 annual average | All | 6.6 (4.0,9.3) |
Follow-up | Cause | Additional Life-Years Lived in the Fossil Fuel Scenario † | Additional Life-Years Per Million Population (30+) †,* |
---|---|---|---|
Year 1 | Total | 1140 (580–1670) | 50 (30–80) |
Cardiovascular (PM2.5) | 1060 (550–1540) | 50 (30–70) | |
Lung cancer (PM2.5) | 70 (30–100) | 3 (1–5) | |
Respiratory (O3) | 20 (10–30) | 1 (0–1) | |
Year 10 | Total | 20,620 (10,490–30,190) | 950 (480–1390) |
Cardiovascular (PM2.5) | 19,060 (9820–27,790) | 880 (450–1280) | |
Lung cancer (PM2.5) | 1260 (580–1910) | 60 (30–90) | |
Respiratory (O3) | 290 (100–480) | 10 (0–20) | |
Year 20 | Total | 39,800 (20,240–58,310) | 1840 (930–2690) |
Cardiovascular (PM2.5) | 36,750 (18,910–53,610) | 1700 (870–2470) | |
Lung cancer (PM2.5) | 2490 (1140–3760) | 120 (50–170) | |
Respiratory (O3) | 550 (180–900) | 40 (30–50) |
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Scovronick, N.; França, D.; Alonso, M.; Almeida, C.; Longo, K.; Freitas, S.; Rudorff, B.; Wilkinson, P. Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 695. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13070695
Scovronick N, França D, Alonso M, Almeida C, Longo K, Freitas S, Rudorff B, Wilkinson P. Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2016; 13(7):695. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13070695
Chicago/Turabian StyleScovronick, Noah, Daniela França, Marcelo Alonso, Claudia Almeida, Karla Longo, Saulo Freitas, Bernardo Rudorff, and Paul Wilkinson. 2016. "Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 13, no. 7: 695. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13070695