The Short-Term Effects of Visibility and Haze on Mortality in a Coastal City of China: A Time-Series Study
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Site
2.2. Data Collection
2.3. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Mean ± SD | Minimum | Percentiles | Maximum | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25th | 50th | 75th | ||||
Daily death counts | ||||||
Total | 99.6 ± 19.9 | 55 | 85 | 96 | 112 | 177 |
Cardiovascular | 27.6 ± 8.3 | 8 | 22 | 27 | 33 | 60 |
Respiratory | 16.0 ± 6.6 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 45 |
Gender | ||||||
Male | 56.0 ± 11.4 | 27 | 48 | 55 | 63 | 96 |
Female | 43.7 ± 11.0 | 19 | 35 | 42 | 51 | 85 |
Age (years) | ||||||
<65 | 24.1 ± 5.3 | 10 | 20 | 24 | 28 | 41 |
≥65 | 75.6 ± 18.0 | 35 | 62 | 72 | 87 | 143 |
Meteorological variables | ||||||
Visibility (km) | 11.9 ± 4.2 | 1.2 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 14.5 | 26.0 |
Temperature (°C) | 17.6 ± 9.4 | −1.8 | 9.3 | 18.9 | 25.3 | 35.1 |
Relative humidity (%) | 71.7 ± 12.7 | 30.0 | 63.0 | 71.8 | 81.0 | 97.0 |
Atmosphere pressure (hPa) | 1015.7 ± 9.1 | 987.0 | 1007.6 | 1016.1 | 1022.7 | 1037.8 |
Air pollution | ||||||
PM10 (μg/m3) | 82.1 ± 53.4 | 15 | 47 | 69 | 104 | 554 |
SO2 (μg/m3) | 22.5 ± 17.6 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 131 |
NO2 (μg/m3) | 45.8 ± 22.7 | 1 | 29 | 44 | 61 | 154 |
Variables | Visibility | Haze | PM10 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Warm Season | Cold Season | Full Year | Warm Season | Cold Season | Full Year | Warm Season | Cold Season | Full Year | |
Mortality | |||||||||
Total | −0.59 (−1.79–0.63) | 1.18 (0.50–1.86) | 0.78 (0.22–1.36) | 6.41 (−3.61–17.47) | 10.01 (5.03–15.40) | 7.76 (3.29–12.42) | 0.47 (−0.09–1.02) | 0.43 (0.18–0.68) | 0.38 (0.17–0.59) |
Cardiovascular | −1.91 (−3.97–0.20) | 1.30 (0.11–2.50) | 0.71 (−0.27–1.70) | 6.11 (−10.70–26.08) | 12.08 (3.29–21.62) | 7.73 (0.12–15.92) | 0.25 (−0.72–1.23) | 0.49 (0.07–0.92) | 0.37 (0.01–0.73) |
Respiratory | 1.63 (−1.24–4.58) | 1.53 (0.10–2.98) | 1.61 (0.39–2.85) | 12.40 (−11.16–42.22) | 23.70 (12.24–36.32) | 17.77 (7.64–28.86) | 0.67 (−0.65–2.01) | 0.82 (0.31–1.33) | 0.68 (0.22–1.13) |
Gender | |||||||||
Male | 0.12 (−1.41–1.67) | 1.30 (0.45–2.16) | 1.01 (0.29–1.74) | 4.73 (−7.64–18.75) | 9.87 (3.56–16.56) | 6.88 (1.27–12.79) | 0.58 (−0.12–1.29) | 0.29 (−0.02–0.60) | 0.33 (0.06–0.60) |
Female | −1.52 (−3.29–0.29) | 1.03 (0.11–1.96) | 0.50 (−0.30–1.30) | 8.64 (−6.37–26.06) | 10.47 (3.68–17.71) | 8.93 (2.62–15.64) | 0.32 (−0.51–1.14) | 0.60 (0.27–0.93) | 0.44 (0.15–0.74) |
Age (years) | |||||||||
<65 | −0.90 (−3.05–1.30) | 1.00 (−0.24–2.26) | 0.60 (−0.44–1.64) | −3.07 (−19.05–16.08) | 1.84 (−6.66–11.12) | 0.24 (−7.34–8.44) | 0.34 (−0.64–1.33) | 0.03 (−0.42–0.49) | 0.11 (−0.28–0.50) |
≥65 | −0.48 (−1.85–0.91) | 1.23 (0.45–2.01) | 0.84 (0.19–1.49) | 10.09 (−1.70–23.29) | 12.61 (6.80–18.73) | 10.09 (4.94–15.49) | 0.51 (−0.12–1.15) | 0.54 (0.26–0.82) | 0.46 (0.22–0.70) |
Air Pollution and Model | Total | Cardiovascular | Respiratory | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ER (%) | 95% CI | ER (%) | 95% CI | ER (%) | 95% CI | |
Visibility | ||||||
Single model | 0.78 | 0.22–1.36 | 0.71 | −0.27–1.70 | 1.61 | 0.39–2.85 |
+PM10 | 0.70 | 0.05–1.35 | 0.83 | −0.29–1.97 | 1.03 | 0.36–2.45 |
+SO2 | 0.67 | 0.07–1.28 | 0.59 | −0.45–1.63 | 1.22 | −0.09–2.54 |
+NO2 | 0.69 | 0.09–1.29 | 0.61 | −0.42–1.66 | 1.42 | 0.12–2.74 |
+PM10 + SO2 + NO2 | 0.71 | 0.04–1.38 | 0.90 | −0.26–2.06 | 0.87 | −0.57–2.33 |
Haze | ||||||
Single model | 7.76 | 3.29–12.42 | 7.73 | 0.12–15.92 | 17.77 | 7.64–28.86 |
+PM10 | 5.44 | 0.34–10.79 | 6.04 | −2.67–15.53 | 13.85 | 2.44–26.53 |
+SO2 | 5.43 | 0.90–10.17 | 3.16 | −4.39–11.31 | 14.05 | 3.78–25.34 |
+NO2 | 6.09 | 1.50–10.89 | 4.96 | −2.76–13.31 | 15.76 | 5.29–27.27 |
+PM10 + SO2 + NO2 | 5.59 | 0.35–11.12 | 5.61 | −3.27–15.31 | 13.11 | 1.36–26.23 |
Variables | Visibility | Haze | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
ER (%) | 95% CI | ER (%) | 95% CI | |
1. Maximum lag days | ||||
3 | 0.79 | 0.22–1.37 | 8.98 | 4.33–13.85 |
7 | 0.78 | 0.22–1.36 | 7.76 | 3.29–12.42 |
10 | 0.78 | 0.23–1.34 | 6.79 | 2.37–11.39 |
2. df for time | ||||
6 | 0.74 | 0.17–1.31 | 8.29 | 3.80–12.98 |
7 | 0.78 | 0.22–1.36 | 7.76 | 3.29–12.42 |
8 | 0.73 | 0.17–1.30 | 7.77 | 3.30–12.43 |
3. df for temperature | ||||
3 | 0.80 | 0.23–1.37 | 7.62 | 3.13–2.31 |
6 | 0.78 | 0.22–1.36 | 7.76 | 3.29–12.42 |
4. df for air pressure and relative humidity | ||||
3 | 0.78 | 0.22–1.36 | 7.76 | 3.29–12.42 |
6 | 0.70 | 0.12–1.27 | 7.37 | 2.88–12.06 |
5. Definition of haze day | ||||
Humidity < 80% * | - | - | 7.76 | 3.29–12.42 |
Humidity <90%# | - | - | 6.45 | 2.42–10.64 |
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Gu, S.; Yang, J.; Woodward, A.; Li, M.; He, T.; Wang, A.; Lu, B.; Liu, X.; Xu, G.; Liu, Q. The Short-Term Effects of Visibility and Haze on Mortality in a Coastal City of China: A Time-Series Study. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 1419. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14111419
Gu S, Yang J, Woodward A, Li M, He T, Wang A, Lu B, Liu X, Xu G, Liu Q. The Short-Term Effects of Visibility and Haze on Mortality in a Coastal City of China: A Time-Series Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14(11):1419. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14111419
Chicago/Turabian StyleGu, Shaohua, Jun Yang, Alistair Woodward, Mengmeng Li, Tianfeng He, Aihong Wang, Beibei Lu, Xiaobo Liu, Guozhang Xu, and Qiyong Liu. 2017. "The Short-Term Effects of Visibility and Haze on Mortality in a Coastal City of China: A Time-Series Study" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, no. 11: 1419. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14111419