Trends of Esophageal Cancer Mortality in Rural China from 1989 to 2013: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Source of Data
2.2. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Age | Year of Death | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rural Male | Rural Female | |||||||||
1989–1993 | 1994–1998 | 1999–2003 | 2004–2008 | 2009–2013 | 1989–1993 | 1994–1998 | 1999–2003 | 2004–2008 | 2009–2013 | |
30–34 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.29 | 0.54 | 0.34 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 1.05 | 0.40 | 0.07 |
35–39 | 4.40 | 2.72 | 2.57 | 1.60 | 1.08 | 2.34 | 1.22 | 2.29 | 0.71 | 0.30 |
40–44 | 11.84 | 10.36 | 6.18 | 8.01 | 3.89 | 6.86 | 5.00 | 4.23 | 2.50 | 0.92 |
45–49 | 23.24 | 20.70 | 18.62 | 14.10 | 8.85 | 13.82 | 11.64 | 10.44 | 5.31 | 1.95 |
50–54 | 43.22 | 37.12 | 34.58 | 42.57 | 20.63 | 23.38 | 19.22 | 20.61 | 14.69 | 5.18 |
55–59 | 75.46 | 62.38 | 48.50 | 74.56 | 47.96 | 40.26 | 31.76 | 28.48 | 27.70 | 11.77 |
60–64 | 127.10 | 107.76 | 87.54 | 111.17 | 82.45 | 65.24 | 55.96 | 50.88 | 49.36 | 23.89 |
65–69 | 166.58 | 146.66 | 129.76 | 154.63 | 113.85 | 86.50 | 70.66 | 65.66 | 68.11 | 38.69 |
70–74 | 240.56 | 214.36 | 182.19 | 222.46 | 160.07 | 117.36 | 102.98 | 97.66 | 100.38 | 64.70 |
75–79 | 240.10 | 216.18 | 206.18 | 265.31 | 212.18 | 119.86 | 112.42 | 116.38 | 120.96 | 81.74 |
80–84 | 239.52 | 216.56 | 208.76 | 311.62 | 272.33 | 132.00 | 128.04 | 130.17 | 147.44 | 119.53 |
Sex | Age Only | Age + Period | Age + Cohort | APC (IE) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rural male | AIC | 1187.63 | 625.10 | 565.88 | 6.58 |
BIC | 797.31 | 406.97 | 397.04 | −99.26 | |
Rural female | AIC | 959.74 | 484.72 | 455.52 | 5.84 |
BIC | 587.98 | 289.65 | 319.61 | −99.88 |
Rural Male | Rural Female | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Coef. | SE | Coef. | SE | |
Age (year) | ||||
30–34 | −2.57 | 0.42 | −2.22 | 0.50 |
35–39 | −1.95 | 0.26 | −1.83 | 0.35 |
40–44 | −1.08 | 0.18 | −1.14 | 0.25 |
45–49 | −0.54 | 0.14 | −0.60 | 0.19 |
50–54 | 0.01 | 0.11 | −0.16 | 0.15 |
55–59 | 0.38 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.12 |
60–64 | 0.77 | 0.07 | 0.65 | 0.09 |
65–69 | 0.99 | 0.06 | 0.88 | 0.09 |
70–74 | 1.27 | 0.06 | 1.24 | 0.10 |
75–79 | 1.32 | 0.08 | 1.38 | 0.12 |
80–84 | 1.39 | 0.10 | 1.61 | 0.15 |
Period (year) | ||||
1989–1993 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.09 |
1994–1998 | −0.09 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
1999–2003 | −0.15 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
2004–2008 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
2009–2013 | 0.05 | 0.06 | −0.30 | 0.09 |
Cohort (year) | ||||
1911–1915 | 0.70 | 0.15 | 0.53 | 0.27 |
1916–1920 | 0.73 | 0.13 | 0.65 | 0.25 |
1921–1925 | 0.76 | 0.12 | 0.73 | 0.25 |
1926–1930 | 0.77 | 0.11 | 0.79 | 0.24 |
1931–1935 | 0.71 | 0.11 | 0.81 | 0.25 |
1936–1940 | 0.58 | 0.12 | 0.75 | 0.26 |
1941–1945 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 0.68 | 0.28 |
1946–1950 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.56 | 0.30 |
1951–1955 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.43 | 0.33 |
1956–1960 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.36 |
1961–1965 | −0.41 | 0.23 | −0.36 | 0.41 |
1966–1970 | −0.56 | 0.28 | −0.58 | 0.48 |
1971–1975 | −0.96 | 0.39 | −0.92 | 0.64 |
1976–1980 | −1.49 | 0.67 | −1.48 | 1.04 |
1981–1985 | −1.95 | 1.63 | −2.77 | 3.63 |
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Gao, X.; Wang, Z.; Kong, C.; Yang, F.; Wang, Y.; Tan, X. Trends of Esophageal Cancer Mortality in Rural China from 1989 to 2013: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 218. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14030218
Gao X, Wang Z, Kong C, Yang F, Wang Y, Tan X. Trends of Esophageal Cancer Mortality in Rural China from 1989 to 2013: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14(3):218. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14030218
Chicago/Turabian StyleGao, Xudong, Zhenkun Wang, Chan Kong, Fen Yang, Ying Wang, and Xiaodong Tan. 2017. "Trends of Esophageal Cancer Mortality in Rural China from 1989 to 2013: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, no. 3: 218. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14030218