Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Opportunist Waterborne Infections–Are There Too Many Gaps to Fill?
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Clinical Presentations
3. Sources of Contamination
4. Exposure Route
5. Dose Response
5.1. Dose
5.2. Virulence
5.3. Animal Models of Exposure
5.4. Population Susceptibility
6. Exposure Frequency
7. Summary
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Problem Formulation What are the scope and purpose of the assessment? | |
What hazards? | Legionella infections. |
Which exposure pathways? | Inhalation and/or aspiration of Legionella contaminated water from multiple sources. |
Which Health outcomes? | Legionnaire’s disease in susceptible populations, Pontiac fever in general populations. |
What certainty is needed for risk management? | This has not been quantified. |
Exposure Assessment What is the estimated dose of pathogens for the defined exposure pathway(s)? | |
Pathogen reduction | Achieved by barriers/control measures and managing re-contamination risks–well established control measures for most sources have been developed and applied. |
Source concentration | Not defined as there are multiple sources. The relationship between source concentration and exposure has not been quantified due to the diversity of exposure scenarios. A robust and broadly applicable relationship between source concentration and dose has not been quantified. |
Magnitude and frequency of exposure | Not quantifiable. Intermittent or occasional use of variable sources by different demographic groups. Many and variable exposure scenarios have been identified. |
Health effects assessment What are the expected health effects of the defined hazards? | |
Dose-response | Not quantified in humans. Susceptibility is dependent on the host immune status. Two principle routes of dose delivery exist. |
Illness and sequalae | In many cases none. Disease may be self-limited, profound, or fatal. Sequalae range from minor to severe, prolonged and debilitating. Secondary transmission is extremely rare. |
Impact on disease burden | DALY * for Years Lived with Disability (YLD) is low (8%). DALY for Years of Life Lost is high (92%). |
Risk characterization What are the expected health effects of the estimated dose? | |
Quantification of risk | Reported cases range from 0.5 to 5+: 100,000. Prevalence of disease is much higher in susceptible populations but not quantified. Disease is probably considerably under-reported |
Variability and uncertainty analysis | Not calculable for the range of infecting organisms, sources and exposure routes on available evidence. |
Sensitivity analysis | Insufficient uncertainty data |
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Bentham, R.; Whiley, H. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Opportunist Waterborne Infections–Are There Too Many Gaps to Fill? Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 1150. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15061150
Bentham R, Whiley H. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Opportunist Waterborne Infections–Are There Too Many Gaps to Fill? International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2018; 15(6):1150. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15061150
Chicago/Turabian StyleBentham, Richard, and Harriet Whiley. 2018. "Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Opportunist Waterborne Infections–Are There Too Many Gaps to Fill?" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15, no. 6: 1150. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15061150