Heatwave Events and Mortality Outcomes in Memphis, Tennessee: Testing Effect Modification by Socioeconomic Status and Urbanicity
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Study Period and Population
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Daily Temperature Descriptive Statistics
3.2. Descriptive Statistics of Mortality
3.2.1. Mortality Attributed to Exposure to Excessive Natural Heat (X30)
3.2.2. All-Cause, Cardiovascular Disease, and Respiratory Mortality
3.3. Association between Heatwaves and Mortality
3.4. Interactive Effects of Sociodemographic Variables and Urbanicity
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Heatwave Abbreviation | Definition | Reference | Total HW Days |
---|---|---|---|
HW1 | Minimum daily temperature >95th percentile for ≥2 consecutive days 1 | Anderson and Bell 2011 [8] | 45 |
HW2 | Mean daily temperature >95th percentile for ≥2 consecutive days | Anderson and Bell 2011 [8] | 32 |
HW3 | Maximum daily temperature >95th percentile for ≥2 consecutive days | Anderson and Bell 2011 [8] | 35 |
HW4 | Maximum daily temperature >35 °C (95 °F) for ≥1 day | Tan et al. 2007 [28] | 215 |
Descriptive Statistics | Daily Temperature Metric (°F) | ||
---|---|---|---|
Maximum | Minimum | Average | |
Mean | 88.1 | 69.8 | 78.9 |
Maximum | 106 | 84 | 94.5 |
Minimum | 58 | 36 | 47 |
95th percentile | 98 | 79 | 88 |
99th percentile | 100 | 81 | 90 |
All-Cause Mortality | Cardiovascular Morality | Respiratory Mortality | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | HW1 | HW2 | HW3 | HW4 | Total | HW1 | HW2 | HW3 | HW4 | Total | HW1 | HW2 | HW3 | HW4 | |
Total | 17,935 | 486 | 371 | 400 | 2530 | 6081 | 171 | 137 | 150 | 882 | 1673 | 38 | 34 | 36 | 223 |
Age | |||||||||||||||
Age 65–79 | 7948 | 228 | 164 | 181 | 1116 | 2446 | 73 | 58 | 57 | 337 | 748 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 109 |
Age 80+ | 9987 | 258 | 207 | 219 | 1414 | 3635 | 98 | 79 | 93 | 545 | 925 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 114 |
Poverty | |||||||||||||||
Low | 9072 | 252 | 186 | 214 | 1280 | 3192 | 85 | 65 | 81 | 467 | 782 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 96 |
High | 8863 | 234 | 185 | 186 | 1250 | 2889 | 86 | 72 | 69 | 415 | 891 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 127 |
Urbanicity | |||||||||||||||
Rural | 1573 | 35 | 28 | 33 | 221 | 493 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 69 | 179 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 29 |
Urban | 16,362 | 451 | 343 | 367 | 2309 | 5588 | 158 | 128 | 142 | 813 | 1494 | 36 | 31 | 32 | 194 |
Gender | |||||||||||||||
Female | 7883 | 216 | 211 | 179 | 1095 | 2698 | 76 | 60 | 65 | 375 | 775 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 94 |
Male | 10,051 | 270 | 160 | 221 | 1435 | 3382 | 95 | 77 | 85 | 507 | 898 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 129 |
Race | |||||||||||||||
Black | 10,202 | 265 | 200 | 235 | 1,454 | 3359 | 92 | 78 | 88 | 501 | 1136 | 26 | 20 | 25 | 165 |
White | 7529 | 217 | 168 | 162 | 1055 | 2645 | 77 | 59 | 60 | 374 | 521 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 54 |
Other | 204 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 77 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
All-Cause | Age | p | Poverty | p | Urban | p | Sex | p | Race | p |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HW1 | −0.109 | 0.249 | −0.054 | 0.562 | 0.221 | 0.229 | −0.020 | 0.828 | 0.109 | 0.204 |
HW2 | 0.003 | 0.978 | 0.016 | 0.879 | 0.168 | 0.413 | 0.034 | 0.749 | 0.134 | 0.169 |
HW3 | −0.040 | 0.701 | −0.122 | 0.239 | 0.069 | 0.715 | −0.033 | 0.750 | −0.068 | 0.473 |
HW4 | 0.008 | 0.858 | −0.003 | 0.950 | 0.006 | 0.936 | 0.032 | 0.467 | −0.018 | 0.654 |
Cardiovascular | ||||||||||
HW1 | −0.103 | 0.542 | 0.113 | 0.497 | 0.065 | 0.820 | 0.001 | 0.995 | 0.060 | 0.677 |
HW2 | −0.087 | 0.642 | 0.205 | 0.268 | 0.225 | 0.509 | 0.028 | 0.881 | −0.044 | 0.786 |
HW3 | 0.098 | 0.594 | −0.064 | 0.716 | 0.452 | 0.208 | 0.047 | 0.791 | −0.150 | 0.337 |
HW4 | 0.101 | 0.209 | −0.024 | 0.758 | 0.038 | 0.776 | 0.093 | 0.238 | −0.065 | 0.337 |
Respiratory | ||||||||||
HW1 | 0.111 | 0.742 | −0.350 | 0.295 | 0.784 | 0.237 | 0.173 | 0.608 | −0.080 | 0.791 |
HW2 | 0.027 | 0.940 | −0.253 | 0.471 | 0.220 | 0.691 | −0.033 | 0.926 | 0.435 | 0.137 |
HW3 | −0.329 | 0.336 | −0.247 | 0.470 | −0.041 | 0.933 | −0.153 | 0.654 | −0.040 | 0.896 |
HW4 | −0.192 | 0.189 | 0.173 | 0.240 | −0.256 | 0.193 | 0.193 | 0.192 | −0.383 | 0.006 |
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Li, Y.; Akkus, C.; Yu, X.; Joyner, A.; Kmet, J.; Sweat, D.; Jia, C. Heatwave Events and Mortality Outcomes in Memphis, Tennessee: Testing Effect Modification by Socioeconomic Status and Urbanicity. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 4568. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16224568
Li Y, Akkus C, Yu X, Joyner A, Kmet J, Sweat D, Jia C. Heatwave Events and Mortality Outcomes in Memphis, Tennessee: Testing Effect Modification by Socioeconomic Status and Urbanicity. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2019; 16(22):4568. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16224568
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Ying, Cem Akkus, Xinhua Yu, Andrew Joyner, Jennifer Kmet, David Sweat, and Chunrong Jia. 2019. "Heatwave Events and Mortality Outcomes in Memphis, Tennessee: Testing Effect Modification by Socioeconomic Status and Urbanicity" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 22: 4568. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16224568