The Role of Environmental Conditions on Marathon Running Performance in Men Competing in Boston Marathon from 1897 to 2018
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Ethical Approval
2.2. Data Sampling and Data Analysis
2.3. Statistical Analysis
where S(YEAR, k) denoted a spline, changing with calendar year and with k basis dimension. K was set equal to nine. Observations before 1944 were discarded because of incomplete information about weather conditions. As a first analysis, all weather variables: temperature, WBGT, precipitations, wind direction, wind speed, and pressure were included into the multi-variable model. Subsequently, WBGT and pressure were discarded, in all groups of finishers, due to multi-collinearity, assessed by computing the variance inflation factor (or VIF) score. All predictors with VIF not greater than 10 were retained in the model. According to this criterion, in all finishers group, precipitations variable was also dropped. Instead, in top ten finishers the wind speed variable was discarded. Partial effects, which are the isolated effects of one particular predictor or interaction, were shown graphically. Moreover, the effects of pressure and WBGT on performance, discarded in the multi-variable model, where also assessed, more rigorously, through uni-variable linear mixed models, which corrected for repeated measurements.Race Time (Y) ~ [Fixed effects (X) = Weather Conditions + S(YEAR, k)+ [Random effects of intercept = Runners]
3. Results
3.1. Summary Statistics
3.2. Statistical Models
3.2.1. Weather Conditions
3.2.2. Calendar Year Effect and Weather Conditions
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
(02:00, 02:30] | (02:30, 03:00] | (03:00, 03:30] | (03:30, 04:00] | (04:00, 04:30] | (04:30, 05:00] | (05:00, 05:30] | (05:30, 06:00] | >06:00 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N | 3966 | 55,423 | 127,016 | 98,763 | 47,915 | 27,513 | 13,489 | 7017 | 2879 |
Temperature (°C) | N (%) | ||||||||
0–7 | 1134 (28.6) | 15,941 (28.8) | 38,080 (30.0) | 30,289 (30.7) | 14,577 (30.4) | 8513 (30.9) | 4287 (31.8) | 2193 (31.3) | 1166 (40.5) |
8–15 | 2663 (67.1) | 36,372 (65.6) | 78,335 (61.7) | 54,992 (55.7) | 23,696 (49.5) | 12,580 (45.7) | 5497 (40.8) | 2648 (37.7) | 866 (30.1) |
16–23 | 169 (4.3) | 3106 (5.6) | 10,585 (8.3) | 13,482 (13.7) | 9642 (20.1) | 6420 (23.3) | 3705 (27.5) | 2176 (31.0) | 847 (29.4) |
24–30 | 0 (0.0) | 4 (0.0) | 16 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) | 0 (0.0) |
Wind direction | N (%) | ||||||||
West | 607 (15.6) | 8299 (15.2) | 20,746 (16.4) | 15,516 (15.7) | 7133 (14.9) | 3454 (12.6) | 1421 (10.5) | 672 (9.6) | 118 (4.1) |
East | 1003 (25.8) | 18,574 (34.0) | 54,990 (43.5) | 47,608 (48.3) | 23,833 (49.7) | 13,847 (50.3) | 6904 (51.2) | 3414 (48.7) | 1418 (49.3) |
North | 1067 (27.4) | 12,476 (22.8) | 22,573 (17.8) | 14,466 (14.7) | 6567 (13.7) | 3627 (13.2) | 1753 (13.0) | 830 (11.8) | 49 (1.7) |
South | 1216 (31.2) Missing = 73 | 15,343 (28.1) Missing = 731 | 28,162 (22.3) Missing = 545 | 21,075 (21.4) Missing = 98 | 10,379 (21.7) Missing = 3 | 6585 (23.9) | 3411 (25.3) | 2101 (29.9) | 1294 (44.9) |
Precipitation (mm) | N (%) | ||||||||
0 | 1869 (47.1) | 27,591 (49.8) | 70,690 (55.7) | 57,256 (58.0) | 28,242 (58.9) | 15,986 (58.1) | 7927 (58.8) | 4233 (60.3) | 1555 (54.0) |
>0 | 2097 (52.9) | 27,831 (50.2) Missing = 1 | 56,322 (44.3) Missing = 4 | 41,505 (42.0) Missing = 2 | 19,670 (41.1) Missing = 3 | 11,527 (41.9) | 5562 (41.2) | 2784 (39.7) | 1324 (46.0) |
WBGT (°C) | N (%) | ||||||||
0–6 | 2260 (58.1) | 29,132 (53.3) | 61,972 (49.0) | 45,244 (45.9) | 21,621 (45.1) | 12,829 (46.6) | 6551 (48.6) | 3418 (48.7) | 1745 (60.6) |
7–10 | 1362 (35.0) | 21,183 (38.7) | 53,463 (42.3) | 41,553 (42.1) | 18,686 (39.0) | 9621 (35.0) | 4061 (30.1) | 1893 (27.0) | 292 (10.1) |
11–15 | 250 (6.4) | 3933 (7.2) | 9190 (7.3) | 8481 (8.6) | 4783 (10.0) | 3204 (11.6) | 1808 (13.4) | 1098 (15.6) | 278 (9.7) |
16–20 | 21 (0.5) Missing = 73 | 444 (0.8) Missing = 731 | 1846 (1.5) Missing = 545 | 3387 (3.4) Missing = 98 | 2822 (5.9) Missing = 3 | 1859 (6.8) | 1069 (7.9) | 608 (8.7) | 564 (19.6) |
Wind speed (km/h) | N (%) | ||||||||
0–15 | 893 (23.1) | 12,849 (23.5) | 29,722 (23.5) | 23,428 (23.7) | 11,322 (23.6) | 6835 (24.8) | 3403 (25.2) | 1775 (25.3) | 711 (24.7) |
16–17 | 1068 (27.6) | 15,776 (28.9) | 35,736 (28.3) | 26,589 (26.9) | 12,877 (26.9) | 6937 (25.2) | 3319 (24.6) | 1618 (23.1) | 590 (20.5) |
18–38 | 1911 (49.4) Missing = 94 | 26,049 (47.6) Missing = 749 | 61,029 (48.2) Missing = 529 | 48,654 (49.3) Missing = 92 | 23,713 (49.5) Missing = 3 | 13,741 (49.9) | 6767 (50.2) | 3624 (51.6) | 1578 (54.8) |
Pressure (hPa) | N (%) | ||||||||
<1015 | 2172 (54.8) | 26,280 (47.4) | 56,049 (44.1) | 42,403 (42.9) | 19,951(41.6) | 11,263 (40.9) | 5200 (38.5) | 2611 (37.2) | 1313 (45.6) |
≥1015 | 1721 (43.4) Missing = 73 | 28,412 (51.3) Missing = 731 | 70,422 (55.4) Missing = 545 | 56,262 (57.0) Missing = 98 | 27,961 (58.4) Missing = 3 | 16,250 (59.1) | 8289 (61.5) | 4406 (62.8) | 1566 (54.4) |
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All Finishers (N = 383,982) | Top 100 (N = 7713) | Top 10 (N = 1215) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Temperature (°C) | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD |
0–7 | 116,180 | 03:41:51 | 00:44:41 | 1817 | 02:34:57 | 00:18:16 | 259 | 02:23:41 | 00:12:01 |
8–15 | 217,649 | 03:34:37 | 00:40:18 | 4851 | 02:36:49 | 00:19:20 | 728 | 02:26:44 | 00:14:44 |
16–23 | 50,133 | 04:02:55 | 00:48:43 | 1025 | 02:46:58 | 00:22:19 | 218 | 02:40:55 | 00:21:15 |
24–30 | 20 | 03:11:14 | 00:11:11 | 20 | 03:11:14 | 00:11:11 | 10 | 03:01:43 | 00:05:06 |
Wind direction | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD |
West | 57,966 | 03:36:23 | 00:38:54 | 1103 | 02:32:25 | 00:16:14 | 140 | 02:22:03 | 00:14:03 |
East | 171,591 | 03:45:03 | 00:43:32 | 1996 | 02:35:26 | 00:18:43 | 220 | 02:18:22 | 00:09:10 |
North | 63,408 | 03:32:12 | 00:40:35 | 1351 | 02:31:51 | 00:17:15 | 160 | 02:18:41 | 00:07:59 |
South | 89,567 | 03:41:01 | 00:48:13 | 1813 | 02:31:28 | 00:13:32 | 220 | 02:20:16 | 00:10:32 |
missing | 1450 | 1450 | 475 | ||||||
Precipitations (mm) | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD |
0 | 215,350 | 03:42:19 | 00:43:38 | 4330 | 02:39:58 | 00:20:58 | 735 | 02:31:01 | 00:16:36 |
>0 mm | 168,622 | 03:38:11 | 00:43:58 | 3373 | 02:34:52 | 00:17:49 | 470 | 02:24:20 | 00:13:26 |
missing | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||||||
WBGT (° C) | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD |
0–6 | 184,772 | 03:39:27 | 00:44:57 | 2969 | 02:32:40 | 00:17:19 | 360 | 02:19:09 | 00:09:48 |
7–10 | 152,114 | 03:37:20 | 00:39:09 | 2535 | 02:33:05 | 00:16:53 | 290 | 02:19:33 | 00:10:48 |
11–15 | 33,025 | 03:49:33 | 00:47:24 | 659 | 02:33:47 | 00:13:38 | 80 | 02:23:14 | 00:12:24 |
16–20 | 12,621 | 04:15:03 | 00:52:05 | 100 | 02:34:15 | 00:08:13 | 10 | 02:15:26 | 00:02:06 |
missing | 1450 | 1450 | 475 | ||||||
Wind speed (km/h) | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD |
0–15 | 90,938 | 03:41:32 | 00:44:16 | 1536 | 02:36:26 | 00:20:06 | 180 | 02:21:15 | 00:11:28 |
16–17 | 104,511 | 03:38:27 | 00:42:28 | 1534 | 02:30:14 | 00:13:28 | 160 | 02:16:40 | 00:09:59 |
18–38 | 187,066 | 03:41:29 | 00:44:17 | 3176 | 02:33:03 | 00:16:32 | 400 | 02:20:50 | 00:10:46 |
missing | 1467 | 1467 | 475 | ||||||
Pressure (hPa) | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD | N | Mean | SD |
<1015 | 167,243 | 03:38:24 | 00:43:28 | 2741 | 02:31:10 | 00:15:06 | 330 | 02:19:17 | 00:11:02 |
≥1015 | 215,289 | 03:42:25 | 00:44:01 | 3522 | 02:34:23 | 00:17:41 | 410 | 02:20:02 | 00:10:04 |
missing | 1450 | 1450 | 475 |
All Finishers | Top 100 | Top 10 | |
---|---|---|---|
(Intercept) | 03:09:56 *** | 02:28:34 *** | 02:11:26 *** |
(00:00:22) | (00:00:50) | (00:00:50) | |
Temperature (°C) | 00:01:53 *** | 00:00:37 *** | 00:00:38 *** |
(00:00:01) | (00:00:02) | (00:00:03) | |
Precipitations (mm) | 00:00:04 *** | 00:00:05 *** | |
(00:00:01) | (00:00:01) | ||
Wind speed (km/h) | 00:00:19 *** | −00:00:09 *** | |
(00:00:01) | (00:00:01) | ||
Wind direction (ref. West) | |||
Wind direction = E | 00:11:18 *** | 00:03:09 *** | 00:03:54 *** |
(00:00:11) | (00:00:27) | (00:00:38) | |
Wind direction = N | 00:05:30 *** | 00:01:30 *** | 00:01:51 ** |
(00:00:11) | (00:00:25) | (00:00:38) | |
Wind direction = S | 00:09:41 *** | 00:00:35 | 00:01:13 * |
(00:00:10) | (00:00:22) | (00:00:33) | |
Smoothing terms | p < 0.001 overall | p < 0.001 overall | p < 0.001 overall |
S(YEAR)1 | −00:02:45 *** | −00:09:39 *** | 00:00:24 *** |
(00:04:50) | (00:01:19) | (00:01:37) | |
S(YEAR)2 | 00:24:34 *** | −00:32:16 *** | 00:08:14 *** |
(00:14:19) | (00:04:30) | (00:04:37) | |
S(YEAR)3 | 00:30:56 *** | 00:08:31 *** | 00:00:25 *** |
(00:04:21) | (00:00:51) | (00:01:21) | |
S(YEAR)4 | 00:48:38 *** | −00:01:40 *** | 00:07:55 ** |
(00:10:19) | (00:03:23) | (00:03:26) | |
S(YEAR)5 | −00:35:50 *** | 00:02:35 | 00:02:50 * |
(00:04:25) | (00:00:58) | (00:01:23) | |
S(YEAR)6 | −00:44:38 *** | 00:00:16 *** | −00:08:02 *** |
(00:08:33) | (00:03:17) | (00:03:10) | |
S(YEAR)7 | −00:05:23 *** | −00:06:37 *** | 00:00:02 *** |
(00:05:44) | (00:01:05) | (00:01:19) | |
S(YEAR)8 | −01:55:53 *** | 00:14:43 *** | −00:24:31 *** |
(00:27:54) | (00:07:53) | (00:07:09) | |
S(YEAR)9 | −00:05:23 *** | 00:09:49 *** | −00:04:17 *** |
(00:04:27) | (00:03:04) | (00:03:04) | |
Observations | 382,532 | 6263 | 740 |
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Share and Cite
Nikolaidis, P.T.; Di Gangi, S.; Chtourou, H.; Rüst, C.A.; Rosemann, T.; Knechtle, B. The Role of Environmental Conditions on Marathon Running Performance in Men Competing in Boston Marathon from 1897 to 2018. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 614. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16040614
Nikolaidis PT, Di Gangi S, Chtourou H, Rüst CA, Rosemann T, Knechtle B. The Role of Environmental Conditions on Marathon Running Performance in Men Competing in Boston Marathon from 1897 to 2018. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2019; 16(4):614. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16040614
Chicago/Turabian StyleNikolaidis, Pantelis T., Stefania Di Gangi, Hamdi Chtourou, Christoph Alexander Rüst, Thomas Rosemann, and Beat Knechtle. 2019. "The Role of Environmental Conditions on Marathon Running Performance in Men Competing in Boston Marathon from 1897 to 2018" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 4: 614. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16040614
APA StyleNikolaidis, P. T., Di Gangi, S., Chtourou, H., Rüst, C. A., Rosemann, T., & Knechtle, B. (2019). The Role of Environmental Conditions on Marathon Running Performance in Men Competing in Boston Marathon from 1897 to 2018. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(4), 614. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16040614