Spatial Statistics and Influencing Factors of the COVID-19 Epidemic at Both Prefecture and County Levels in Hubei Province, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Research Methods
3. Results
3.1. Spatial Statistics of the COVID-19 Epidemic
3.1.1. Spatial Autocorrelations of the Provincial COVID-19 Outbreaks Nationwide
3.1.2. Spatial Autocorrelations of the Prefecture Level COVID-19 Outbreaks Nationwide
3.1.3. Spatial Autocorrelations of the County Level COVID-19 Outbreaks in Hubei Province
3.2. Influencing Factors of the COVID-19 Epidemic
3.2.1. Influencing Factors of the Prefecture Level COVID-19 Outbreaks in Hubei Province
3.2.2. Influencing Factors of the County Level COVID-19 Outbreaks in Hubei Province
4. Discussion
4.1. Geographic Risk Identification Based on the Spatial Statistics of the COVID-19 Epidemic
4.2. Potential Risk Factors of the COVID-19 Spread
4.3. Limitations
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
SARS | severe acute respiratory syndrome |
SARS-CoV-2 | 2019 novel coronavirus |
COVID-19 | novel coronavirus pneumonia 2019 (coronavirus disease 2019) |
CCC | cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases |
DCC | daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases |
LISA | Local Indicators of Spatial Association |
ALMI | Anselin Local Moran’s I |
LA | land area |
PD | population density |
RGP | registered population |
RSP | resident population |
BMI | Baidu migration index |
GDP | gross domestic production |
TRS | total retail sales of consumer goods |
DEM | digital elevation model |
MAXE | maximum elevation |
MINE | minimum elevation |
MNE | mean elevation |
RAE | range of elevation |
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Indicator | MINE | MAXE | MNE | RAE | LA | PD | RGP | RSP | TRS | GDP | BMI | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CCC0123 | −0.508 * | −0.084 | −0.185 | −0.097 | 0.218 | 0.231 | 0.640 ** | 0.647 ** | 0.555 * | 0.608 ** | 0.579 * | |||||||||
CCC0124 | −0.321 | 0.021 | −0.067 | 0.018 | 0.328 | 0.123 | 0.650 ** | 0.605 * | 0.411 | 0.418 | 0.460 | |||||||||
CCC0125 | −0.568 * | 0.082 | 0.039 | 0.076 | 0.375 | 0.158 | 0.712 ** | 0.702 ** | 0.622 ** | 0.654 ** | 0.586 * | |||||||||
CCC0126 | −0.515 * | 0.113 | 0.075 | 0.104 | 0.417 | 0.169 | 0.757 ** | 0.765 ** | 0.689 ** | 0.737 ** | 0.602 * | |||||||||
CCC0127 | −0.531 * | 0.045 | −0.006 | 0.037 | 0.347 | 0.254 | 0.753 ** | 0.764 ** | 0.699 ** | 0.766 ** | 0.704 ** | |||||||||
CCC0128 | −0.451 | 0.088 | 0.049 | 0.074 | 0.373 | 0.238 | 0.755 ** | 0.782 ** | 0.725 ** | 0.784 ** | 0.607 * | |||||||||
CCC0129 | −0.468 | 0.047 | −0.005 | 0.034 | 0.355 | 0.267 | 0.772 ** | 0.797 ** | 0.750 ** | 0.819 ** | 0.679 ** | |||||||||
CCC0130 | −0.473 | −0.025 | −0.061 | −0.044 | 0.248 | 0.368 | 0.711 ** | 0.745 ** | 0.748 ** | 0.811 ** | 0.654 ** | |||||||||
CCC0131 | −0.468 | 0.022 | −0.017 | −0.002 | 0.316 | 0.319 | 0.765 ** | 0.799 ** | 0.811 ** | 0.865 ** | 0.668 ** | |||||||||
CCC0201 | −0.456 | 0.042 | 0.002 | 0.015 | 0.324 | 0.304 | 0.755 ** | 0.794 ** | 0.814 ** | 0.868 ** | 0.650 ** | |||||||||
CCC0202 | −0.527 * | −0.012 | −0.054 | −0.032 | 0.304 | 0.350 | 0.779 ** | 0.816 ** | 0.831 ** | 0.882 ** | 0.682 ** | |||||||||
CCC0203 | −0.505 * | 0.034 | 0.005 | 0.010 | 0.326 | 0.304 | 0.767 ** | 0.794 ** | 0.806 ** | 0.850 ** | 0.661 ** | |||||||||
CCC0204 | −0.551 * | 0.015 | −0.022 | 0.000 | 0.324 | 0.348 | 0.799 ** | 0.824 ** | 0.838 ** | 0.875 ** | 0.725 ** | |||||||||
CCC0205 | −0.522 * | −0.027 | −0.051 | −0.051 | 0.265 | 0.370 | 0.738 ** | 0.760 ** | 0.782 ** | 0.824 ** | 0.675 ** | |||||||||
CCC0206 | −0.534 * | −0.059 | −0.083 | −0.086 | 0.233 | 0.395 | 0.721 ** | 0.748 ** | 0.770 ** | 0.816 ** | 0.657 ** | |||||||||
CCC0207 | −0.534 * | −0.059 | −0.083 | −0.086 | 0.233 | 0.395 | 0.721 ** | 0.748 ** | 0.770 ** | 0.816 ** | 0.657 ** | |||||||||
CCC0208 | −0.561 * | −0.074 | −0.108 | −0.096 | 0.228 | 0.439 | 0.750 ** | 0.775 ** | 0.804 ** | 0.843 ** | 0.732 ** | |||||||||
CCC0209 | −0.529 * | −0.071 | −0.096 | −0.100 | 0.208 | 0.419 | 0.708 ** | 0.733 ** | 0.760 ** | 0.804 ** | 0.675 ** | |||||||||
CCC0210 | −0.527 * | −0.096 | −0.120 | −0.125 | 0.174 | 0.449 | 0.689 ** | 0.711 ** | 0.735 ** | 0.782 ** | 0.686 ** | |||||||||
CCC0211 | −0.498 * | −0.086 | −0.110 | −0.115 | 0.189 | 0.436 | 0.691 ** | 0.718 ** | 0.745 ** | 0.787 ** | 0.657 ** | |||||||||
CCC0212 | −0.529 * | −0.120 | −0.154 | −0.145 | 0.172 | 0.451 | 0.696 ** | 0.718 ** | 0.725 ** | 0.787 ** | 0.704 ** | |||||||||
CCC0213 | −0.554 * | −0.147 | −0.179 | −0.172 | 0.127 | 0.490 * | 0.667 ** | 0.684 ** | 0.701 ** | 0.757 ** | 0.725 ** | |||||||||
CCC0214 | −0.551 * | −0.135 | −0.167 | −0.162 | 0.137 | 0.485 * | 0.674 ** | 0.691 ** | 0.716 ** | 0.767 ** | 0.732 ** | |||||||||
CCC0215 | −0.554 * | −0.147 | −0.179 | −0.172 | 0.127 | 0.490 * | 0.667 ** | 0.684 ** | 0.701 ** | 0.757 ** | 0.725 ** | |||||||||
CCC0216 | −0.569 * | −0.162 | −0.199 | −0.184 | 0.108 | 0.517 * | 0.659 ** | 0.676 ** | 0.699 ** | 0.755 ** | 0.754 ** | |||||||||
CCC0217 | −0.566 * | −0.150 | −0.186 | −0.174 | 0.118 | 0.512 * | 0.667 ** | 0.684 ** | 0.713 ** | 0.765 ** | 0.761 ** | |||||||||
CCC0218 | −0.566 * | −0.150 | −0.186 | −0.174 | 0.118 | 0.512 * | 0.667 ** | 0.684 ** | 0.713 ** | 0.765 ** | 0.761 ** | |||||||||
tMean | −0.539 * | −0.113 | −0.145 | −0.140 | 0.169 | 0.466 | 0.701 ** | 0.721 ** | 0.743 ** | 0.792 ** | 0.725 ** | |||||||||
N5 | NES | NS | NM | NW | None | PW | PM | PS | PES | P5 | ||||||||||
p < 0.05 | −1~−0.8 | −0.8~−0.6 | −0.6~−0.4 | −0.4~−0.2 | −0.2~0.2 | 0.2~0.4 | 0.4~0.6 | 0.6~0.8 | 0.8~1 | p < 0.05 |
Indicator | MINE | MAXE | MNE | RAE | LA | PD | RGP | RSP | TRS | GDP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CCC0126 | −0.314 * | −0.477 ** | −0.513 ** | −0.478 ** | −0.289 * | 0.482 ** | 0.257 * | 0.286 * | 0.449 ** | 0.290 * |
CCC0127 | −0.287 * | −0.537 ** | −0.523 ** | −0.529 ** | −0.150 | 0.424 ** | 0.344 ** | 0.386 ** | 0.470 ** | 0.331 ** |
CCC0128 | −0.321 ** | −0.483 ** | −0.484 ** | −0.482 ** | −0.179 | 0.499 ** | 0.466 ** | 0.508 ** | 0.591 ** | 0.488 ** |
CCC0129 | −0.326 ** | −0.491 ** | −0.494 ** | −0.489 ** | −0.145 | 0.526 ** | 0.529 ** | 0.575 ** | 0.648 ** | 0.538 ** |
CCC0130 | −0.354 ** | −0.537 ** | −0.534 ** | −0.535 ** | −0.221 * | 0.583 ** | 0.499 ** | 0.583 ** | 0.705 ** | 0.633 ** |
CCC0131 | −0.372 ** | −0.557 ** | −0.544 ** | −0.556 ** | −0.266 * | 0.613 ** | 0.465 ** | 0.552 ** | 0.704 ** | 0.622 ** |
CCC0201 | −0.406 ** | −0.532 ** | −0.552 ** | −0.526 ** | −0.254 * | 0.618 ** | 0.494 ** | 0.578 ** | 0.705 ** | 0.609 ** |
CCC0202 | −0.456 ** | −0.570 ** | −0.601 ** | −0.561 ** | −0.276 ** | 0.657 ** | 0.530 ** | 0.613 ** | 0.706 ** | 0.597 ** |
CCC0203 | −0.488 ** | −0.589 ** | −0.628 ** | −0.577 ** | −0.277 ** | 0.664 ** | 0.547 ** | 0.630 ** | 0.712 ** | 0.606 ** |
CCC0204 | −0.502 ** | −0.603 ** | −0.640 ** | −0.590 ** | −0.305 ** | 0.691 ** | 0.545 ** | 0.626 ** | 0.699 ** | 0.586 ** |
CCC0205 | −0.509 ** | −0.611 ** | −0.649 ** | −0.598 ** | −0.311 ** | 0.695 ** | 0.543 ** | 0.624 ** | 0.696 ** | 0.589 ** |
CCC0206 | −0.511 ** | −0.614 ** | −0.651 ** | −0.600 ** | −0.293 ** | 0.689 ** | 0.553 ** | 0.634 ** | 0.694 ** | 0.584 ** |
CCC0207 | −0.517 ** | −0.624 ** | −0.665 ** | −0.610 ** | −0.297 ** | 0.696 ** | 0.553 ** | 0.635 ** | 0.703 ** | 0.584 ** |
CCC0208 | −0.519 ** | −0.631 ** | −0.669 ** | −0.617 ** | −0.299 ** | 0.700 ** | 0.554 ** | 0.638 ** | 0.705 ** | 0.584 ** |
CCC0209 | −0.520 ** | −0.632 ** | −0.668 ** | −0.619 ** | −0.299 ** | 0.703 ** | 0.554 ** | 0.636 ** | 0.696 ** | 0.571 ** |
CCC0210 | −0.518 ** | −0.633 ** | −0.668 ** | −0.619 ** | −0.295 ** | 0.700 ** | 0.551 ** | 0.632 ** | 0.697 ** | 0.566 ** |
CCC0211 | −0.522 ** | −0.642 ** | −0.679 ** | −0.629 ** | −0.292 ** | 0.706 ** | 0.561 ** | 0.642 ** | 0.705 ** | 0.570 ** |
CCC0212 | −0.525 ** | −0.646 ** | −0.680 ** | −0.634 ** | −0.269 * | 0.689 ** | 0.570 ** | 0.650 ** | 0.705 ** | 0.577 ** |
CCC0213 | −0.528 ** | −0.632 ** | −0.677 ** | −0.620 ** | −0.284 ** | 0.694 ** | 0.575 ** | 0.648 ** | 0.694 ** | 0.560 ** |
CCC0214 | −0.533 ** | −0.635 ** | −0.683 ** | −0.622 ** | −0.283 ** | 0.690 ** | 0.570 ** | 0.642 ** | 0.696 ** | 0.559 ** |
CCC0215 | −0.534 ** | −0.640 ** | −0.687 ** | −0.627 ** | −0.277 ** | 0.689 ** | 0.580 ** | 0.653 ** | 0.704 ** | 0.567 ** |
CCC0216 | −0.532 ** | −0.646 ** | −0.690 ** | −0.632 ** | −0.277 ** | 0.690 ** | 0.579 ** | 0.651 ** | 0.704 ** | 0.569 ** |
CCC0217 | −0.530 ** | −0.650 ** | −0.693 ** | −0.636 ** | −0.276 ** | 0.690 ** | 0.580 ** | 0.652 ** | 0.710 ** | 0.574 ** |
CCC0218 | −0.525 ** | −0.650 ** | −0.690 ** | −0.638 ** | −0.275 ** | 0.688 ** | 0.574 ** | 0.649 ** | 0.708 ** | 0.572 ** |
tMean | −0.515 ** | −0.638 ** | −0.677 ** | −0.626 ** | −0.290 ** | 0.702 ** | 0.562 ** | 0.645 ** | 0.720 ** | 0.587 ** |
N5 | NES | NS | NM | NW | None | PW | PM | PS | PES | P5 |
p < 0.05 | −1~−0.8 | −0.8~−0.6 | −0.6~−0.4 | −0.4~−0.2 | −0.2~0.2 | 0.2~0.4 | 0.4~0.6 | 0.6~0.8 | 0.8~1 | p < 0.05 |
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Xiong, Y.; Wang, Y.; Chen, F.; Zhu, M. Spatial Statistics and Influencing Factors of the COVID-19 Epidemic at Both Prefecture and County Levels in Hubei Province, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 3903. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17113903
Xiong Y, Wang Y, Chen F, Zhu M. Spatial Statistics and Influencing Factors of the COVID-19 Epidemic at Both Prefecture and County Levels in Hubei Province, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(11):3903. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17113903
Chicago/Turabian StyleXiong, Yongzhu, Yunpeng Wang, Feng Chen, and Mingyong Zhu. 2020. "Spatial Statistics and Influencing Factors of the COVID-19 Epidemic at Both Prefecture and County Levels in Hubei Province, China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 11: 3903. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17113903