Life Expectancy in Chinese Cities: Spatially Varied Role of Socioeconomic Development, Population Structure, and Natural Conditions
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Study Area, Data, and Methods
3.1. Study Area
3.2. Data
3.3. Calculation of Life Expectancy
- (1)
- Calculating age-specific mortality rate nmx:nmx = DX/PX
- (2)
- Calculating age-specific probability of death nqx:nqx = 1 − , is the empirical value, according to Reed–Merrell, = 0.008.
- (3)
- Calculating age-specific number of survivors lx and deaths 5dx, assuming l0 = 100,000. 5dx = lx × 5qx, lx+5 = lx−5 dx
- (4)
- Calculating total person-years of survival TxThe values of each group aged 10 years and above were calculated from the higher age group by the following formula: Tx = −0.20833lx−5 + 2.5lx + 0.20833lx+5 + 5
- (5)
- Calculating person-years of survival 5 Lx:L0 = 0.276l0 + 0.724l1L1 = 0.410l0 + 0.590l25 L5 = −0.003l0 + 2.242l5 + 2.761l105 Lx = Tx − Tx+5
- (6)
- Calculating life expectancy Tx/lx
3.4. Spatial Autocorrelation
3.4.1. Global Moran’s I index
3.4.2. Local Moran’s I index
3.5. Empirical Model
3.5.1. Influencing Factors and Variable Selection
3.5.2. Geographically Weighted Regression Model
4. Results
4.1. Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Life Expectancy in Prefecture-Level Cities
4.2. Analysis of Factors Influencing Life Expectancy
4.2.1. Influence of Economic Development Level
4.2.2. Influence of Medical Conditions
4.2.3. Influence of Demographic Structure
4.2.4. Influence of Natural Environment
4.2.5. Influence of City Attributes
4.3. Spatial Variation of Dominant Factors
5. Conclusions and Policy Implications
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Factors | Variables | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dependent Variables | |||||
Life expectancy | 76 | 3.45 | 49.66 | 83.52 | |
Independent Variables | |||||
Economic development | Per capita GDP (ln) | 10.16 | 0.64 | 8.55 | 11.84 |
Urbanization rate | 46.51% | 17.13% | 12.69% | 100.00% | |
Medical conditions | Health care | 4.33 | 1.38 | 1.3 | 9.61 |
Infant mortality rate | 0.51% | 0.60% | 0.02% | 6.75% | |
Per capita health expenditure (ln) | 5.78 | 0.37 | 4.17 | 7.27 | |
Road density | 90.99 | 81.11 | 0.43 | 1156.65 | |
Demographic structure | Aging rate | 8.63% | 1.93% | 1.79% | 16.50% |
Average years of education | 8.75 | 1.11 | 3.47 | 11.71 | |
Average household size | 3.18 | 0.46 | 2.11 | 5.55 | |
Sex ratio | 105.49 | 4.22 | 89.65 | 132.58 | |
The proportion of migrants | 4.74% | 8.13% | 0.11% | 64.87% | |
Natural environment | Average annual PM2.5 concentration | 33.89 | 18.13 | 2.09 | 74.79 |
Average altitude (ln) | 5.77 | 1.59 | 0.26 | 8.53 | |
Perennial mean temperature | 12.96 | 6.56 | −3.52 | 25.54 | |
City attributes | Urban population size (ln) | 4.3 | 0.98 | 0.78 | 7.34 |
The city located in Central China | CC = 1 (frequency: 82), else = 0 | ||||
The city located in Northeastern China | NC = 1 (36), else = 0 | ||||
The city located in Eastern China | EC = 1 (87), else = 0 | ||||
Prefecture-level cities | PREC = 1 (250), else = 0 | ||||
Sub-provincial cities and provincial capitals | SUB_PRO/PRO = 1 (32), else = 0 | ||||
Province-level cities | PROC = 1 (4), else = 0 |
Variables | Moran’s I | Z(I) | P |
---|---|---|---|
Life expectancy | 0.424 | 12.535 | 0.001 |
Per capita GDP | 0.396 | 11.961 | 0.001 |
Urbanization rate | 0.402 | 12.107 | 0.001 |
Health care | 0.292 | 8.627 | 0.001 |
Infant mortality rate | 0.434 | 13.48 | 0.001 |
Per capita health expenditure | 0.402 | 11.942 | 0.001 |
Road density | 0.245 | 8.962 | 0.001 |
Aging rate | 0.644 | 19.003 | 0.001 |
Average years of education | 0.533 | 15.784 | 0.001 |
Average household size | 0.572 | 16.677 | 0.001 |
Sex ratio | 0.425 | 12.233 | 0.001 |
The proportion of migrants | 0.572 | 17.165 | 0.001 |
Average annual PM2.5 concentration | 0.894 | 26.035 | 0.001 |
Average altitude | 0.905 | 27.102 | 0.001 |
Perennial mean temperature | 0.933 | 26.908 | 0.001 |
Urban population size | 0.086 | 2.742 | 0.013 |
Prefecture-level cities | 0.276 | 8.136 | 0.001 |
Sub-provincial cities and provincial capitals | −0.081 | −2.218 | 0.007 |
Province-level cities | 0.087 | 2.814 | 0.032 |
Variables | Standardized Coefficient | ||
---|---|---|---|
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
Per capita GDP (ln) | 0.111 * | 0.162 ** | |
(0.341) | (0.382) | ||
Urbanization rate | 0.002 | −0.026 | |
(0.014) | (0.015) | ||
Health care | 0.012 | −0.004 | |
(0.155) | (0.164) | ||
Infant mortality rate | −0.335 *** | −0.336 *** | |
(0.253) | (0.263) | ||
Per capita health expenditure (ln) | 0.007 | 0.007 | |
(0.443) | (0.499) | ||
Road density | −0.004 | 0.001 | |
(0.002) | (0.002) | ||
Aging rate | 0.013 | 0.029 | |
(0.106) | (0.112) | ||
Average years of education | 0.290 *** | 0.272 *** | |
(0.219) | (0.224) | ||
Average household size | −0.204 *** | −0.196 *** | |
(0.473) | (0.488) | ||
Sex ratio | −0.004 | −0.014 | |
(0.038) | (0.040) | ||
The proportion of migrants | −0.027 | 0.010 | |
(0.024) | (0.027) | ||
Average annual PM2.5 concentration | −0.095 | −0.117 | |
(0.013) | (0.014) | ||
Average altitude (ln) | −0.081 | −0.073 | |
(0.137) | (0.156) | ||
Perennial mean temperature | 0.208 *** | 0.234 *** | |
(0.026) | (0.033) | ||
Urban population size (ln) | 0.014 | 0.039 | |
(0.197) | (0.238) | ||
The city located in Central China | 0.195 *** | 0.062 | |
(0.440) | (0.396) | ||
The city located in Northeastern China | 0.173 *** | 0.045 | |
(0.564) | (0.626) | ||
The city located in Eastern China | 0.260 *** | −0.035 | |
(0.438) | (0.460) | ||
Prefecture-level cities | 0.384 *** | −0.044 | |
(0.503) | (0.487) | ||
Sub-provincial cities and provincial capitals | 0.452 *** | −0.028 | |
(0.688) | (0.75) | ||
Province-level cities | 0.177 *** | −0.020 | |
(1.534) | (1.458) | ||
Constant | 72.053 *** | 67.514 *** | 65.54 *** |
(0.410) | (6.120) | (6.597) | |
Adj-R-squared | 0.298 | 0.631 | 0.630 |
F | 24.755 | 39.173 | 28.123 |
Variables | Standardized Coefficient | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern | Central | Western | Northeastern | |
Per capita GDP (ln) | 0.057 | 0.269 | 0.330 ** | 0.272 |
(−0.324) | (−0.427) | (−1.038) | (−0.667) | |
Urbanization rate | −0.026 | 0.103 | −0.182 | 0.558 |
(−0.009) | (−0.026) | (−0.042) | (−0.038) | |
Health care | 0.183 | 0.236 | 0.021 | −0.368 |
(−0.132) | (−0.185) | (−0.322) | (−0.415) | |
Infant mortality rate | −0.260 *** | −0.106 | −0.305 *** | −0.001 |
(−0.844) | (−0.480) | (−0.454) | (−2.467) | |
Per capita health expenditure (ln) | −0.116 | −0.004 | 0.016 | 0.535 * |
(−0.330) | (−0.542) | (−1.120) | (−1.509) | |
Road density | 0.062 | −0.325 ** | 0.035 | −0.904 * |
(−0.002) | (−0.004) | (−0.003) | (−0.02) | |
Aging rate | 0.177 | 0.605 *** | −0.091 | 0.572 * |
(−0.084) | (−0.117) | (−0.285) | (−0.227) | |
Average years of education | 0.230 ** | 0.179 *** | 0.350 *** | 0.259 *** |
(−0.198) | (−0.290) | (−0.462) | (−0.773) | |
Average household size | −0.323 *** | 0.228 *** | −0.142 * | 0.749 |
(−0.357) | (−0.638) | (−1.163) | (−2.058) | |
Sex ratio | 0.046 | 0.079 | −0.094 | 0.027 |
(−0.029) | (−0.036) | (−0.086) | (−0.16) | |
The proportion of migrants | 0.302 ** | 0.123 | 0.023 | −0.065 |
(−0.016) | (−0.170) | (−0.109) | (−0.131) | |
Average annual PM2.5 concentration | −0.282 ** | 0.605 ** | −0.045 | 0.23 |
(−0.009) | (−0.023) | (−0.047) | (−0.048) | |
Average altitude (ln) | −0.194 * * | 0.095 | 0.041 | −0.296 |
(−0.097) | (−0.266) | (−0.557) | (−0.272) | |
Perennial mean temperature | 0.172 * | −0.009 *** | 0.302 *** | 0.249 *** |
(−0.032) | (−0.05) | (−0.079) | (−0.149) | |
Constant | 75.061 *** | 55.288 *** | 55.324 *** | 35.268 |
(−5.950) | (−7.603) | (−16.988) | (−22.891) | |
Adj-R-squared | 0.749 | 0.49 | 0.569 | 0.182 |
F | 19.326 | 6.555 | 13.246 | 1.555 |
Variables | Min | Lower Quartile | Median | Upper Quartile | Max | Average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Per capita GDP (ln) | −0.040 | −0.003 | 0.039 | 0.185 | 0.503 | 0.102 |
Urbanization rate | −0.479 | 0.049 | 0.095 | 0.122 | 0.218 | 0.052 |
Health care | −0.182 | −0.102 | −0.058 | −0.017 | 0.134 | −0.058 |
Infant mortality rate | −0.648 | −0.460 | −0.354 | −0.280 | −0.232 | −0.375 |
Per capita health expenditure (ln) | −0.038 | −0.012 | 0.005 | 0.030 | 0.112 | 0.013 |
Road density | −0.018 | −0.001 | 0.009 | 0.046 | 0.256 | 0.035 |
Aging rate | −0.207 | −0.067 | −0.005 | 0.034 | 0.088 | −0.023 |
Average years of education | 0.215 | 0.267 | 0.299 | 0.330 | 0.414 | 0.298 |
Average household size | −0.436 | −0.294 | −0.236 | −0.181 | −0.116 | −0.246 |
Sex ratio | −0.117 | −0.041 | −0.010 | 0.003 | 0.011 | −0.023 |
The proportion of migrants | −0.160 | −0.066 | −0.023 | 0.019 | 0.062 | −0.029 |
Average annual PM2.5 concentration | −0.361 | −0.104 | −0.059 | −0.041 | −0.017 | −0.090 |
Average altitude (ln) | −0.124 | −0.094 | −0.081 | −0.053 | 0.040 | −0.074 |
Perennial mean temperature | 0.163 | 0.213 | 0.237 | 0.288 | 0.397 | 0.254 |
Urban population size (ln) | 0.014 | 0.040 | 0.059 | 0.080 | 0.130 | 0.063 |
Prefecture-level cities | −0.160 | −0.059 | −0.029 | 0.003 | 0.056 | −0.032 |
Sub-provincial cities and provincial capitals | −0.173 | −0.078 | −0.040 | −0.023 | 0.166 | −0.042 |
Province-level cities | −0.087 | −0.053 | −0.038 | −0.031 | −0.016 | −0.043 |
Intercept | −0.087 | −0.063 | −0.047 | −0.038 | 0.033 | −0.046 |
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Huang, D.; Yang, S.; Liu, T. Life Expectancy in Chinese Cities: Spatially Varied Role of Socioeconomic Development, Population Structure, and Natural Conditions. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 6597. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186597
Huang D, Yang S, Liu T. Life Expectancy in Chinese Cities: Spatially Varied Role of Socioeconomic Development, Population Structure, and Natural Conditions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(18):6597. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186597
Chicago/Turabian StyleHuang, Daquan, Shuimiao Yang, and Tao Liu. 2020. "Life Expectancy in Chinese Cities: Spatially Varied Role of Socioeconomic Development, Population Structure, and Natural Conditions" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 18: 6597. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186597