How to Improve Compliance with Protective Health Measures during the COVID-19 Outbreak: Testing a Moderated Mediation Model and Machine Learning Algorithms
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Perceived Efficacy and Compliance
1.2. The Mediating Role of Self-Efficacy
1.3. The Moderating Role of Risk Perception
1.4. The Moderating Role of Civic Engagement
1.5. The Role of Age, Education, and Personality Dysfunction
1.6. Predictive Models
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Procedures
2.2. Measures
2.2.1. Behavioral Compliance
2.2.2. Perceived Efficacy
2.2.3. Self-Efficacy
2.2.4. Risk Perception
2.2.5. Civic Engagement
2.2.6. Personality Dysfunction
2.3. Participants
3. Statistical Analysis
4. Results
4.1. Paired Sample t-Test
4.2. Mediation Model
4.3. Moderated Mediation Model
4.4. Machine Learning
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Dimensions | M | SD | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Compliance | 41.66 | 6.20 | - | |||
2. Perceived efficacy | 44.82 | 6.17 | 0.742 ** | - | ||
3. Self-efficacy | 12.55 | 1.71 | 0.332 ** | 0.198 ** | - | |
4. Perceived risk | 18.56 | 3.18 | 0.129 ** | 0.218 ** | −0.077 ** | - |
5. Civic attitudes | 42.33 | 8.52 | 0.191 ** | 0.176 ** | 0.243 ** | 0.118 ** |
Safety Measures | Perceived Efficacy N = 2766 M (SD) | Compliance N = 2766 M (SD) | t | p | Cohen’s d |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Avoid hugs | 3.94 (1.1) | 3.76 (1.2) | 9.006 | <0.001 | 0.171 |
2. Avoid handshakes | 4.50 (0.8) | 4.48 (0.8) | 1.253 | 0.210 | 0.024 |
3. Keep one meter away from others | 4.42 (0.9) | 4.10 (1) | 17.653 | <0.001 | 0.336 |
4. Avoid drinking from bottles and glasses used by others | 4.65 (0.6) | 4.54 (0.8) | 9.978 | <0.001 | 0.190 |
5. Avoid crowded places | 4.67(0.6) | 4.56 (0.7) | 10.708 | <0.001 | 0.204 |
6. Disinfect hands at home | 4.28 (0.9) | 4.09 (1) | 12.304 | <0.001 | 0.234 |
7. Disinfect hands outside | 4.63 (0.7) | 4.31 (0.9) | 22.219 | <0.001 | 0.423 |
8. Avoid touching face with hands | 4.50 (0.8) | 3.23 (1.2) | 58.744 | <0.001 | 1.117 |
9. Cough or sneeze into a tissue or elbow | 4.63 (0.7) | 4.24 (0.9) | 26.660 | <0.001 | 0.507 |
10. Stay at home | 4.60 (0.7) | 4.34 (0.9) | 17.617 | <0.001 | 0.335 |
Predictors | β | t | p | 95% CI | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL | UL | ||||
Model 1 (DV: Self-efficacy) | |||||
Covariates | |||||
Age | −0.00 | −0.25 | 0.800 | −0.005 | 0.004 |
Education | −0.12 | −2.88 | 0.004 | −0.205 | −0.039 |
Personality dysfunction | −0.03 | −8.25 | <0.001 | −0.031 | −0.019 |
Independent variable | |||||
PE | 0.05 | 10.23 | <0.001 | 0.043 | 0.063 |
R2 = 0.06 | |||||
F(4, 2761) = 46.69 *** | |||||
Model 2 (DV: Compliance) | |||||
Covariates | |||||
Age | 0.04 | 6.49 | <0.001 | 0.026 | 0.049 |
Education | −0.27 | −2.68 | 0.008 | −0.467 | −0.072 |
Personality dysfunction | −0.04 | −5.75 | <0.001 | −0.057 | −0.028 |
Independent variables | |||||
SE | 0.65 | 14.38 | <0.001 | 0.561 | 0.738 |
PE | 0.72 | 57.44 | <0.001 | 0.691 | 0.740 |
R2 = 0.60 | |||||
F(5, 2760) = 826.83 *** |
Predictors | β | t | p | 95% CI | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL | UL | ||||
Model 1 (DV: Self-efficacy) | |||||
Covariates | |||||
Age | −0.00 | −1.29 | 0.198 | −0.008 | 0.002 |
Education | −0.12 | −2.89 | 0.004 | −0.201 | −0.038 |
Personality dysfunction | −0.02 | −7.45 | <0.001 | −0.028 | −0.016 |
Independent variables | |||||
PE | 0.07 | 2.50 | 0.013 | 0.015 | 0.126 |
Risk perception | −0.08 | −1.34 | 0.179 | −0.206 | −0.038 |
PE x Risk perception | 0.00 | 0.001 | 0.846 | −0.002 | 0.003 |
CE attitudes | 0.07 | 3.15 | 0.002 | 0.027 | 0.117 |
PE x CE attitudes | −0.00 | −1.23 | 0.217 | −0.002 | 0.000 |
R2 = 0.12 | |||||
F(8, 2757) = 48.08 *** | |||||
Model 2 (DV: Compliance) | |||||
Covariates | |||||
Age | 0.04 | 6.53 | <0.001 | 0.027 | 0.050 |
Education | −0.25 | −2.51 | 0.012 | −0.453 | −0.056 |
Personality dysfunction | −0.04 | −5.44 | <0.001 | −0.056 | −0.025 |
Independent variables | |||||
SE | 0.52 | 1.69 | 0.092 | −0.085 | 1.132 |
PE | 0.34 | 4.74 | <0.001 | 0.196 | 0.473 |
SE x Risk perception | −0.00 | −0.14 | 0.885 | −0.029 | 0.025 |
SE x CE attitudes | 0.01 | 0.80 | 0.422 | −0.005 | 0.013 |
Risk perception | −0.53 | −2.52 | 0.012 | −0.952 | −0.119 |
PE x Risk perception | 0.01 | 3.56 | <0.001 | 0.005 | 0.019 |
CE attitudes | −0.23 | −3.09 | 0.002 | −0.370 | −0.083 |
PE x CE attitudes | 0.01 | 3.34 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.007 |
R2 = 0.61 | |||||
F(11, 2754) = 382.97 *** |
Algorithm | Accuracy | ROC Area | Class | Precision | Recall | F-Measure |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logistic | 88.07% | 0.941 | High compliance | 0.990 | 0.882 | 0.933 |
Low compliance | 0.325 | 0.861 | 0.904 | |||
SVM | 88.89% | 0.871 | High compliance | 0.990 | 0.880 | 0.932 |
Low compliance | 0.322 | 0.861 | 0.468 | |||
Random forest | 95.71% | 0.938 | High compliance | 0.976 | 0.979 | 0.977 |
Low compliance | 0.662 | 0.628 | 0.644 | |||
Naive Bayes | 94.35% | 0.929 | High compliance | 0.978 | 0.916 | 0.970 |
Low compliance | 0.534 | 0.679 | 0.598 |
Algorithm | Accuracy | ROC Area | Class | Precision | Recall | F-Measure |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logistic | 86.62% | 0.918 | High compliance | 0.983 | 0.873 | 0.942 |
Low compliance | 0.283 | 0.765 | 0.413 | |||
SVM | 87.34% | 0.823 | High compliance | 0.983 | 0.881 | 0.929 |
Low compliance | 0.295 | 0.765 | 0.426 | |||
Random forest | 94.39% | 0.901 | High compliance | 0.964 | 0.977 | 0.970 |
Low compliance | 0.556 | 0.441 | 0.492 | |||
Naive Bayes | 94.03% | 0.875 | High compliance | 0.969 | 0.967 | 0.968 |
Low compliance | 0.514 | 0.529 | 0.522 |
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Roma, P.; Monaro, M.; Muzi, L.; Colasanti, M.; Ricci, E.; Biondi, S.; Napoli, C.; Ferracuti, S.; Mazza, C. How to Improve Compliance with Protective Health Measures during the COVID-19 Outbreak: Testing a Moderated Mediation Model and Machine Learning Algorithms. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 7252. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17197252
Roma P, Monaro M, Muzi L, Colasanti M, Ricci E, Biondi S, Napoli C, Ferracuti S, Mazza C. How to Improve Compliance with Protective Health Measures during the COVID-19 Outbreak: Testing a Moderated Mediation Model and Machine Learning Algorithms. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(19):7252. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17197252
Chicago/Turabian StyleRoma, Paolo, Merylin Monaro, Laura Muzi, Marco Colasanti, Eleonora Ricci, Silvia Biondi, Christian Napoli, Stefano Ferracuti, and Cristina Mazza. 2020. "How to Improve Compliance with Protective Health Measures during the COVID-19 Outbreak: Testing a Moderated Mediation Model and Machine Learning Algorithms" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 19: 7252. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17197252