Tourism under the Early Phase of COVID-19 in Four APEC Economies: An Estimation with Special Focus on SARS Experiences
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Panel Regression Model
2.2. Data Set
3. Estimation Results
3.1. The Impacts of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic on International Tourism
3.2. The Effects of COVID-19 on Tourism in Economies with and without Experiences of SARS-CoV Epidemic
4. Conclusions
4.1. Limitations of the Study and Recommendations for Future Research
4.2. Taiwan’s Response to COVID-19
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables (Definition) | Data Sources |
---|---|
COVID-19 cases (daily number of COVID-19 confirmed cases) | Taiwan CDC (Centers of Disease Control) [39] Hong Kong Government Open Data Platform [40] Thailand DDC (Department of Disease Control) [41] New Zealand Ministry of Health [42] |
Tourist arrivals (daily number of international tourist arrivals) | Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport Co. Ltd. [43] Hong Kong Immigration Department [44] Thailand Immigration Bureau [45] New Zealand’s official data agency [46] |
Variables | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min. | Max. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Taiwan | ||||
Tourist arrivals (person) | 23,305.79 | 23,438.25 | 69 | 68,663 |
COVID-19 cases (case) | 3.554 | 6.134 | 0 | 27 |
Exchange rate (NTD/USD) | 30.097 | 0.141 | 29.72 | 30.45 |
Travel restriction | 0.355 | 0.481 | 0 | 1 |
Hong Kong | ||||
Tourist arrivals (person) | 6233.63 | 11,875.14 | 66 | 59,577 |
COVID-19 cases (case) | 8.578 | 14.711 | 0 | 65 |
Exchange rate (HKD/USD) | 7.766 | 0.0125 | 7.749 | 7.795 |
Travel restriction | 0.306 | 0.463 | 0 | 1 |
Thailand | ||||
Tourist arrivals (person) | 27,390.01 | 25,744.83 | 42 | 75,249 |
COVID-19 cases (case) | 24.413 | 40.587 | 0 | 188 |
Exchange rate (THB/USD) | 31.613 | 0.908 | 30.15 | 33.04 |
Travel restriction | 0.273 | 0.447 | 0 | 1 |
New Zealand | ||||
Tourist arrivals (person) | 8301.298 | 6433.496 | 0 | 16,830 |
COVID-19 cases (case) | 9.331 | 20.309 | 0 | 95 |
Exchange rate (NZD/USD) | 1.598 | 0.072 | 1.494 | 1.764 |
Travel restriction | 0.355 | 0.481 | 0 | 1 |
Panel data set | ||||
Tourist arrivals (person) | 16,810.29 | 20,980.1 | 0 | 75,249 |
COVID-19 cases (case) | 11.469 | 25.214 | 0 | 188 |
Exchange rate | 17.768 | 13.299 | 1.494 | 33.04 |
Travel restriction | 0.322 | 0.467 | 0 | 1 |
Global deaths (person) | 1878.802 | 2752.062 | 0 | 10,520 |
Variables | Pooled OLS | FE Model | RE Model |
---|---|---|---|
Constant | 7.622 *** (0.165) | 41.503 *** (6.211) | 7.654 *** (0.144) |
LnCOVID_case_lagged | −0.115 *** (0.011) | −0.082 *** (0.011) | −0.142 *** (0.012) |
LnER | 0.506 *** (0.048) | −13.837 *** (2.610) | 0.502 *** (0.043) |
Travel_ban | −3.437 *** (0.155) | −3.342 *** (0.156) | −3.373 *** (0.138) |
R-squared | 0.775 | 0.802 | 0.794 |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.774 | 0.799 | 0.793 |
Root MSE | 0.122 | 0.148 | 0.152 |
F test | 55.14 *** | ||
LM test | 54.33 *** | ||
Hausman test | 57.82 *** |
Variables | Estimated Coefficients |
---|---|
Constant | 34.412 *** (6.638) |
LnCOVID_case_lagged | −0.075 *** (0.012) |
LnGlobal_COVID_death | −0.049 *** (0.012) |
LnER | −10.732 *** (2.829) |
Travel_ban | −3.215 *** (0.160) |
R-squared | 0.806 |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.802 |
Root MSE | 1.137 |
Variables | Taiwan-Hong Kong | Thailand-New Zealand |
---|---|---|
Constant | −185.938 *** (41.180) | 7.524 (8.138) |
LnCOVID_case_lagged | −0.034 *** (0.011) | −0.103 *** (0.018) |
LnGlobal_COVID_death | −0.096 *** (0.016) | −0.056 ** (0.023) |
LnER | 70.369 *** (14.831) | 0.737 (4.694) |
Travel_ban | −2.732 *** (0.140) | −3.943 *** (0.322) |
R-squared | 0.873 | 0.802 |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.871 | 0.797 |
Root MSE | 0.736 | 1.323 |
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Tran, B.-L.; Chen, C.-C.; Tseng, W.-C.; Liao, S.-Y. Tourism under the Early Phase of COVID-19 in Four APEC Economies: An Estimation with Special Focus on SARS Experiences. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 7543. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17207543
Tran B-L, Chen C-C, Tseng W-C, Liao S-Y. Tourism under the Early Phase of COVID-19 in Four APEC Economies: An Estimation with Special Focus on SARS Experiences. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(20):7543. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17207543
Chicago/Turabian StyleTran, Bao-Linh, Chi-Chung Chen, Wei-Chun Tseng, and Shu-Yi Liao. 2020. "Tourism under the Early Phase of COVID-19 in Four APEC Economies: An Estimation with Special Focus on SARS Experiences" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 20: 7543. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17207543