The Identification of Precursor Regulation Impact on the Methamphetamine Market and Public Health Indicators in the Czech Republic: Time Series Structural Break Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Design
2.2. Data and Its Availability and Collectability
2.3. Variables
2.4. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Appendix B
References
- Stoneberg, D.M.; Shukla, R.K.; Magness, M.B. Global methamphetamine trends: An evolving problem. Int. Crim. Justice Rev. 2018, 28, 136–161. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- UNODC. World Drug Report 2018; UNODC: Vienna, Austria, 2018; ISBN 978-92-1-148304-8. [Google Scholar]
- Darke, S.; Kaye, S.; McKetin, R.; Duflou, J. Major physical and psychological harms of methamphetamine use. Drug Alcohol Revs. 2008, 27, 253–262. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Tait, R.J.; Whetton, S.; Shanahan, M.; Cartwright, K.; Ferrante, A.; Gray, D.; Kaye, S.; McKetin, R.; Pidd, K.; Ritter, A.; et al. Quantifying the societal cost of methamphetamine use to Australia. Int. J. Drug Policy 2018, 62, 30–36. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Zábranský, T.; Běláčková, V.; Michaela, Š.; Vopravil, J.; Langrová, M. Společenské Náklady Užívání Alkoholu, Tabáku a Nelegálních Drog v ČR v Roce 2007: Zpráva z Výzkumu: Centrum Adiktologie, Psychiatrická Klinika, 1. LF UK v Praze a VFN v Praze; Centrum Adiktologie, Psychiatrická Klinika, 1. Lékařská Fakulta v Praze a Všeobecná Fakultní Nemocnice v Praze: Prague, Czech Republic, 2011; ISBN 978-80-260-1680-9. [Google Scholar]
- Cherney, A.; O’Reilly, J.; Grabosky, P. The Governance of Illicit Synthetic Drugs; NDLERF: Sydney, Australia, 2005; ISBN 978-0-642-47434-6. [Google Scholar]
- McKetin, R.; Sutherland, R.; Bright, D.A.; Norberg, M.M. A systematic review of methamphetamine precursor regulations: Methamphetamine precursor regulations. Addiction 2011, 106, 1911–1924. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- EMCDDA. Methamphetamine: A European Union Perspective in the Global Context; European Monitoring Centre for Drug and Drug Addiction: Lisbon, Portugal, 2009; ISBN 978-92-9168. [Google Scholar]
- INCB. Precursors and Chemicals Frequently Used in the Illicit Manufacture of Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances; United Nations: Vienna, Austria, 2015; ISBN 978-92-1-148280-5. [Google Scholar]
- INCB. Precursors and Chemicals Frequently Used in the Illicit Manufacture of Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances; United Nations: Vienna, Austria, 2006. [Google Scholar]
- INCB. Precursors and Chemicals Frequently Used in the Illicit Manufacture of Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances; United Nations: Vienna, Austria, 2007; ISBN 978-92-1-148219-5. [Google Scholar]
- INCB. Precursors and Chemicals Frequently Used in the Illicit Manufacture of Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances; United Nations: Vienna, Austria, 2013; ISBN 978-92-1-055968-3. [Google Scholar]
- INCB. Precursors and Chemicals Frequently Used in the Illicit Manufacture of Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances; United Nations: Vienna, Austria, 2016; ISBN 978-92-1-148284-3. [Google Scholar]
- Mazerolle, L.; McGuffog, I.; Ferris, J.; Chamlin, M.B. Pharmaceutical sales of pseudoephedrine: The impact of electronic tracking systems on methamphetamine crime incidents: Pharmaceutical sales of pseudoephedrine. Addiction 2017, 112, 468–474. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cunningham, J.K.; Liu, L.-M. Impacts of federal precursor chemical regulations on methamphetamine arrests. Addiction 2005, 100, 479–488. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dobkin, C.; Nicosia, N. The war on drugs: Methamphetamine, public health, and crime. Am. Econ. Rev. 2009, 99, 324–349. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Dobkin, C.; Nicosia, N.; Weinberg, M. Are supply-side drug control efforts effective? Evaluating OTC regulations targeting methamphetamine precursors. J. Public Econ. 2014, 120, 48–61. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shukla, R.K.; Crump, J.L.; Chrisco, E.S. An evolving problem: Methamphetamine production and trafficking in the United States. Int. J. Drug Policy 2012, 23, 426–435. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gilbreath, A.H. From soda bottles to super labs: An analysis of north America’s dual methamphetamine production networks. Geogr. Rev. 2015, 105, 511–527. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Callaghan, R.C.; Cunningham, J.K.; Victor, J.C.; Liu, L.-M. Impact of Canadian federal methamphetamine precursor and essential chemical regulations on methamphetamine-related acute-care hospital admissions. Drug Alcohol Depend. 2009, 105, 185–193. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cunningham, J.K.; Liu, L.-M. Impacts of federal ephedrine and pseudoephedrine regulations on methamphetamine-related hospital admissions. Addiction 2003, 98, 1229–1237. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Griffiths, P.; Mravcik, V.; Lopez, D.; Klempova, D. Quite a lot of smoke but very limited fire–The use of methamphetamine in Europe. Drug Alcohol Revs. 2008, 27, 236–242. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mounteney, J.; Groshkova, T.; Thanki, D.; Cunningham, A.; Rychert, M. Exploring Methamphetamine Trends in Europe; Publications Office: Luxembourg, 2014; ISBN 978-92-9168-679-7. [Google Scholar]
- EMCDDA. European Drug Report 2019: Trends and Developments; EMCDDA: Lisbon, Portugal, 2019; ISBN 9978-92-9497-398-6. [Google Scholar]
- Zábranský, T. Methamphetamine in the Czech Republic. J. Drug Issues 2007, 37, 155–180. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- EMCDDA. European Drug Report 2018: Trends and Developments; EMCDDA: Lisbon, Portugal, 2018; ISBN 978-92-9497-272-9. [Google Scholar]
- EMCDDA; EUROPOL (Eds.) EU Drug Markets Report: In-depth Analysis; Publications Office of the European Union: Luxembourg, 2016; ISBN 978-92-9168-842-5. [Google Scholar]
- Van Hout, M.C. Kitchen chemistry: A scoping review of the diversionary use of pharmaceuticals for non-medicinal use and home production of drug solutions: Diversionary use of pharmaceuticals for use and home made drugs. Drug Test. Anal. 2014, 6, 778–787. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Petruželka, B. The relationship between the regulation of licit medications containing pseudoephedrine and the illicit methamphetamine market in Czechia and neighbouring countries. DAT 2019, 20, 6–16. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Zeman, P.; Štefunková, M.; Trávníčková, I. Increase in figures on drug offences in the Czech Republic: An epidemic of drug crime or something else? Česká Kriminol. 2017, 2, 1–13. [Google Scholar]
- Petruželka, B.; Barták, M. Analysis of the association between public health and drug market policing: Review of law enforcement indicators. Adiktologie J. 2019, 19, 43–51. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Petruželka, B.; Barták, M. The impact of methamphetamine drug market policing on public health in Czechia: Interrupted time series analysis of selected public health indicators. 2020. Unpublished manuscript. [Google Scholar]
- Zeileis, A. Package ‘Strucchange’; R CRAN Repository Report; Journal of Statistical Software: Innsbruck, Austria, 2019. [Google Scholar]
- Zeileis, A.; Kleiber, C.; Krämer, W.; Hornik, K. Testing and dating of structural changes in practice. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 2003, 44, 109–123. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Lopez Bernal, J.; Cummins, S.; Gasparrini, A. The use of controls in interrupted time series studies of public health interventions. Int. J. Epidemiol. 2018, 47, 2082–2093. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Moritz, S.; Bartz-Beielstein, T. ImputeTS: Time series missing value imputation in R. R J. 2017, 9, 207–218. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Moritz, S.; Sardá, A.; Bartz-Beielstein, T.; Zaefferer, M.; Stork, J. Comparison of different methods for univariate time Series imputation in R. arXiv 2015, arXiv:1510.03924. [Google Scholar]
- Zeman, P.; Štefunková, M.; Trávníčková, I. Drogová Kriminalita a Trestní Zákoník; Institut pro Kriminologii a Sociální Prevenci: Prague, Czech Republic, 2015. [Google Scholar]
- Mravčík, V.; Chomynová, P.; Grohmannová, K.; Janíková, B.; Černíková, T.; Rous, Z.; Tion Leštinová, Z.; Nechanská, B.; Cibulka, J.; Fidesová, H.; et al. Annual Report on Drug Situation 2019–Czech Republic; Úřad Vlády České Republiky: Prague, Czech Republic, 2019; ISBN 978-80-7440-219-7. [Google Scholar]
- Gilmour, S.; Degenhardt, L.; Hall, W.; Day, C. Using intervention time series analyses to assess the effects of imperfectly identifiable natural events: A general method and example. BMC Med. Res. Methodol. 2006, 6, 16. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Petruželka, B.; Barták, M. Potential indicators for the analysis of the association between public health and drug market policing in the Czech Republic: Review of public health indicators. Adiktologie J. 2019, 19, 135–143. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- National Drug Headquarters. Výroční Zpráva 2008; National Drug Headquarters: Prague, Czech Republic, 2009. [Google Scholar]
- Hartnoll, R.; Hendriks, V.M.; Morrival, M.; Europe, W.H.O.R.O. The Assessment of Drug Problems; WHO Regional Office for Europe: Copenhagen, Denmark, 1998. [Google Scholar]
- Singleton, N.; Cunningham, A.; Groshkova, T.; Royuela, L.; Sedefov, R. Drug supply indicators: Pitfalls and possibilities for improvements to assist comparative analysis. Int. J. Drug Policy 2018, 56, 131–136. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Specific Time Series | Number of Breaks | Date of Breakpoint | cf. | Date of Breakpoint | cf. | Date of Breakpoint | cf. | Date of Breakpoint | cf. | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lower | Upper | Lower | Upper | Lower | Upper | Lower | Upper | ||||||
Methamphetamine Arrests | |||||||||||||
Overall | 2 | 2006/2 | 2004/11 | 2007/2 | 2013/2 | 2012/8 | 2013/5 | ||||||
Czech nationals | 1 | 2013/2 | 2012/8 | 2013/7 | |||||||||
Foreign nationals | 1 | 2009/6 | 2008/5 | 2009/9 | 2013/1 | 2011/12 | 2013/4 | ||||||
Vietnamese nationals | 1 | 2010/3 | 2009/6 | 2010/4 | 2012/12 | 2009/2 | 2013/10 | ||||||
Neighboring countries nationals | 1 | 2012/10 | 2011/10 | 2013/1 | |||||||||
Precursor Arrests | |||||||||||||
Overall | 1 | 2011/12 | 2011/7 | 2012/1 | |||||||||
Czech nationals | 1 | 2011/12 | 2011/7 | 2012/1 | |||||||||
Foreign nationals | 1 | 2013/10 | 2009/8 | 2003/12 | |||||||||
Vietnamese nationals | 1 | 2013/4 | 2007/9 | 2013/8 | |||||||||
Neighboring countries nationals | 1 | 2009/5 | 2005/6 | 2009/6 | |||||||||
Methamphetamine and Precursor-Related Organized Crime Arrests | |||||||||||||
Overall | 4 | 2006/3 | 2004/11 | 2007/5 | 2008/2 | 2007/10 | 2008/6 | 2010/1 | 2009/12 | 2010/4 | 2014/1 | 2011/8 | 2014/5 |
Czech nationals | 3 | 2006/3 | 2005/3 | 2007/2 | 2008/2 | 2007/11 | 2008/5 | 2010/1 | 2009/12 | 2010/4 | |||
Foreign nationals | 1 | 2013/9 | 2010/6 | 2014/2 | |||||||||
Vietnamese nationals | 1 | 2013/1 | 2009/6 | 2013/4 | |||||||||
Neighboring countries nationals | 0 | ||||||||||||
Heroin Arrests | |||||||||||||
Overall | 1 | 2010/5 | 2010/2 | 2011/2 | |||||||||
Czech nationals | 2 | 2007/12 | 2007/2 | 2009/10 | 2010/5 | 2010/3 | 2010/7 | ||||||
Foreign nationals | 1 | 2011/10 | 2011/4 | 2014/2 | |||||||||
Vietnamese nationals | 1 | 2011/10 | 2011/9 | 2014/1 | |||||||||
Neighboring countries nationals | 0 | ||||||||||||
Heroin-Related Organized Crime Arrests | |||||||||||||
Overall | 1 | 2009/6 | 2009/5 | 2011/6 | |||||||||
Czech nationals | 2 | 2008/4 | NA | NA | 2010/6 | NA | NA | ||||||
Foreign nationals | 1 | 2009/7 | 2009/6 | 2014/6 | |||||||||
Vietnamese nationals | 0 | ||||||||||||
Neighboring countries nationals | 0 | ||||||||||||
Nonfatal Intoxications | |||||||||||||
Methamphetamine | 1 | 2013/11 | 2012/12 | 2014/4 | |||||||||
Heroin | 1 | 2010/7 | 2010/2 | 2011/11 |
Time Series | Intercepts | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Not Segmented Model | Segmented Models | |||||
Segment 1 | Segment 2 | Segment 3 | Segment 4 | Segment 5 | ||
Methamphetamine Arrests | ||||||
Overall | 123.3 | 94.0 | 111.5 | 158.3 | ||
Czech nationals | 113.0 | 100.2 | 139.5 | |||
Foreign nationals | 8.3 | 3.3 | 7.8 | 14.9 | ||
Vietnam nationals | 4.4 | 0.9 | 5.2 | 8.5 | ||
Neighboring country nationals | 2.0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | |||
Precursor Arrests | ||||||
Overall | 7.2 | 2.2 | 14.3 | |||
Czech nationals | 6.4 | 1.8 | 13.0 | |||
Foreign nationals | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.4 | |||
Vietnamese nationals | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | |||
Neighboring countries nationals | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | |||
Methamphetamine and Precursor-Related Organized Crime Arrests | ||||||
Overall | 9.7 | 15.1 | 7.9 | 28.1 | 3.8 | 9.2 |
Czech nationals | 8.0 | 14.1 | 6.9 | 26.6 | 3.8 | |
Foreign nationals | 1.7 | 1.1 | 3.4 | |||
Vietnamese nationals | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.4 | |||
Neighboring countries nationals | NA | |||||
Heroin Arrests | ||||||
Overall | 8.5 | 12.3 | 5.4 | |||
Czech nationals | 5.9 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 3.4 | ||
Foreign nationals | 2.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | |||
Vietnamese nationals | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | |||
Neighboring countries nationals | NA | |||||
Heroin-Related Organized Crime Arrests | ||||||
Overall | 1.9 | 3.9 | 0.4 | |||
Czech nationals | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 0.1 | ||
Foreign nationals | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | |||
Vietnamese nationals | NA | |||||
Neighboring countries nationals | NA | |||||
Nonfatal Intoxications | ||||||
Methamphetamine | 2.7 | 2.2 | 4.4 | |||
Heroin | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. |
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Petruželka, B.; Barták, M. The Identification of Precursor Regulation Impact on the Methamphetamine Market and Public Health Indicators in the Czech Republic: Time Series Structural Break Analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 7840. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17217840
Petruželka B, Barták M. The Identification of Precursor Regulation Impact on the Methamphetamine Market and Public Health Indicators in the Czech Republic: Time Series Structural Break Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(21):7840. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17217840
Chicago/Turabian StylePetruželka, Benjamin, and Miroslav Barták. 2020. "The Identification of Precursor Regulation Impact on the Methamphetamine Market and Public Health Indicators in the Czech Republic: Time Series Structural Break Analysis" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 21: 7840. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17217840