Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Modeling Study of Factors Driving Variation in Case Fatality Rate by Country
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Collection
2.2. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
Limitations and Future Directions
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Mean (SD) | Rate Ratio (SE) | p (Density Interaction) |
---|---|---|---|
Percent population >70 years old † | 8.9 (4.7) | 1.33 (0.16) * | - |
Population density | 158.7 (148.2) | 1.14 (0.32) | - |
Population size † | 135.4 × 106 (310 × 106) | 1.07 (0.14) | - |
GDP in 2017 ($) † | 1.82 × 1012 (3.57 × 1012) | 1.23 (0.16) | - |
GDP per capita in 2017 | 29761 (22379) | 1.11 (0.15) | - |
Healthcare expenditure per capita | 2849 (2735) | 1.17 (0.16) | - |
Scientific production † | 53393 (91189) | 1.20 (0.15) | - |
Hospital beds per 1000 | 3.95 (2.91) | 0.92 (0.14) | - |
Physicians per 1000 | 2.78 (1.26) | 1.16 (0.14) | - |
General mortality per 1000 | 7.82 (2.62) | 1.44 (0.21) * | - |
Life expectancy | 78.7 (4.3) | 1.21 (0.14) | - |
CT scanners per 1 million | 26.6 (22.2) | 0.75 (0.13) | - |
Radiologists † | 5863 (14180) | 1.20 (0.20) | - |
Radiologists per 1 million | 64.1 (43.2) | 1.25 (0.20) | - |
Total tests † | 330013 (325817) | 1.15 (0.14) | - |
Tests per 1000 | 12.0 (9.4) | 1.04 (0.15) | 0.04 |
Median age | 36.3 (6.8) | 1.23 (0.14) | - |
Days from 100th case to quarantine | 9.5 (8.4) | 1.26 (0.18) | - |
Air travel † | 93587 (165381) | 1.05 (0.13) | - |
Education | 73.5 (19.2) | 0.88 (0.14) | - |
Percent Illiterate † | 4.5 (8.1) | 0.75 (0.09) * | - |
Percent Obese | 21.1 (8.5) | 0.99 (0.15) | 0.005 |
Percent Smokers | 20.3 (6.2) | 1.08 (0.14) | 0.03 |
Percent Tobacco Users | 23.3 (8.0) | 1.11 (0.15) | 0.06 |
Percent HIV | 0.2 (0.3) | 1.30 (0.18) * | 0.001 |
Percent COPD | 5.4 (2.3) | 1.23 (0.15) | - |
Air pollution † | 27.2 (34.0) | 0.68 (0.09) ** | - |
Variable | Model I | Model II | Model III |
---|---|---|---|
RR (95% CI) | RR (95% CI) | RR (95% CI) | |
Prevalence smoking (10% population increase) | |||
at low population density | 1.00 (0.69, 1.44) | 1.13 (0.80, 1.61) | 0.96 (0.69, 1.33) |
at mean population density | 1.59 (0.99, 2.56) | 1.72 (1.12, 2.65) | 1.33 (0.90, 1.96) |
at high population density | 2.53 (1.32, 4.87) | 2.62 (1.46, 4.70) | 1.83 (1.09, 3.07) |
>14 days from 100th case to quarantine | 1.54 (1.01, 2.35) | 1.23 (0.78, 1.92) | 1.57 (1.01, 2.43) |
Hospital beds per 1000 individuals | 0.85 (0.78, 0.92) | 0.84 (0.77, 0.90) | 0.58 (0.45, 0.74) |
Percent population >70 years | 1.15 (1.08, 1.23) | 1.12 (1.03, 1.20) | 1.13 (1.07, 1.20) |
CT scanners per 1 million individuals (log) | 0.49 (0.34, 0.67) | 0.44 (0.32, 0.60) | 0.67 (0.46, 0.98) |
Date of 100th case (days) | - | 0.96 (0.92, 0.99) | - |
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Pan, J.; St. Pierre, J.M.; Pickering, T.A.; Demirjian, N.L.; Fields, B.K.K.; Desai, B.; Gholamrezanezhad, A. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Modeling Study of Factors Driving Variation in Case Fatality Rate by Country. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 8189. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17218189
Pan J, St. Pierre JM, Pickering TA, Demirjian NL, Fields BKK, Desai B, Gholamrezanezhad A. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Modeling Study of Factors Driving Variation in Case Fatality Rate by Country. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(21):8189. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17218189
Chicago/Turabian StylePan, Jennifer, Joseph Marie St. Pierre, Trevor A. Pickering, Natalie L. Demirjian, Brandon K.K. Fields, Bhushan Desai, and Ali Gholamrezanezhad. 2020. "Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Modeling Study of Factors Driving Variation in Case Fatality Rate by Country" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 21: 8189. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17218189