Impact of Climate Variability and Abundance of Mosquitoes on Dengue Transmission in Central Vietnam
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Dengue Case Data
2.3. Mosquito Data
2.4. Climate Data
2.5. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Dengue Transmission in Central Vietnam
3.2. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Dengue Transmission in Central Vietnam
3.3. Dengue Transmission in Da Nang and Khah Hoa
3.4. Influence of Climate Variation and Vector Index on Dengue Transmission in Da Nang and Khanh Hoa
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Month | Da Nang | Khanh Hoa | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DTM | NTM | MTM | Rainfall | DTM | NTM | MTM | Rainfall | |
Jan | 23.15 | 16.44 | 20.17 | 16.69 | 24.57 | 17.27 | 20.87 | 5.99 |
Feb | 25.83 | 17.39 | 21.6 | 5.98 | 26.37 | 18.06 | 22.15 | 4.15 |
Mar | 28.44 | 20.8 | 24.71 | 11.23 | 29.53 | 20.13 | 24.97 | 4.33 |
Apr | 31.08 | 22.01 | 26.45 | 6.66 | 31.46 | 22.14 | 26.81 | 1.51 |
May | 31.47 | 23.34 | 27.57 | 20.95 | 31.6 | 22.71 | 27.14 | 6.58 |
Jun | 31.57 | 24.16 | 28.21 | 23.82 | 31.06 | 22.84 | 27.04 | 0.66 |
Jul | 29.73 | 23.54 | 27.15 | 14.34 | 30.9 | 22.72 | 26.59 | 4.48 |
Aug | 30.76 | 23.1 | 26.66 | 36.36 | 31.18 | 22.26 | 26.31 | 3.08 |
Sep | 29.17 | 22.37 | 25.74 | 39.45 | 29.58 | 21.45 | 25.48 | 24.99 |
Oct | 26.22 | 20.59 | 23.7 | 114.96 | 27.85 | 19.9 | 23.78 | 94.93 |
Nov | 25.71 | 19.32 | 22.62 | 268.54 | 26.19 | 19.54 | 23.3 | 71.63 |
Dec | 24 | 14.93 | 20.51 | 39.34 | 24.47 | 17.25 | 20.9 | 9.45 |
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Variable | Area | Median (IQR) | Mean (SD) | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DTM | Da Nang | 28.44 (4.7) | 28.09 (3.2) | 21.3 | 33.36 |
Khanh Hoa | 29.26 (4.5) | 28.73 (2.8) | 22.89 | 33.08 | |
NTM | Da Nang | 21.52 (4.6) | 20.67 (3.1) | 13.08 | 25.44 |
Khanh Hoa | 20.3 (4.7) | 20.52 (2.2) | 15.95 | 23.77 | |
MTM | Da Nang | 25.3 (4.2) | 24.59 (2.9) | 18.45 | 29.33 |
Khanh Hoa | 25.24 (3.3) | 24.61 (2.4) | 18.9 | 28.55 | |
Rainfall | Da Nang | 16.21 (48.3) | 49.86 (102.2) | 0 | 563.65 |
Khanh Hoa | 4.09 (12.9) | 19.32 (43.4) | 0 | 239.32 |
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Province/Variable | Coefficient | p-Value | Coefficient | p-Value | Coefficient | p-Value | Coefficient | p-Value | Coefficient | p-Value |
Da Nang | ||||||||||
NTM | 1.293 | 0.06 | 1.443 | 0.076 | 1.001 | 0.0065 | 1.001 | 0.172 | ||
Rainfall (lag, 2) | 2.414 | 0.0028 | 2.409 | 0.0033 | 2.265 | 0.0094 | 2.442 | <0.001 | ||
IOD | 2.654 | 0.0018 | 2.908 | <0.001 | 2.377 | 0.022 | 1.489 | 0.018 | ||
MEI (lag, 1) | 3.123 | 0.0043 | 2.929 | 0.0194 | 3.349 | <0.001 | 2.425 | 0.068 | ||
AIC | 405.873 | 408.094 | 415.94 | 425.219 | 414.171 | |||||
∆AIC | 2.221 | 10.067 | 19.346 | 8.298 | ||||||
Khanh Hoa | ||||||||||
DTM | 1 | 0.0031 | 1.429 | 0.004 | 1.988 | 0.002 | 1 | 0.0119 | ||
Rainfall | 1.715 | 0.033 | 1.888 | 0.018 | 1 | 0.0028 | 1.033 | 0.277 | ||
IOD (lag, 1) | 2.821 | <0.001 | 2.702 | <0.001 | 2.93 | <0.001 | 3.011 | <0.001 | ||
MEI | 3.187 | <0.001 | 3.503 | <0.001 | 3.313 | <0.001 | 3.063 | <0.001 | ||
AIC | 333.38 | 339.45 | 337.19 | 356.86 | 370.78 | |||||
∆AIC | 6.07 | 3.81 | 23.48 | 37.4 |
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Province/Variable | Coefficient | p-Value | Coefficient | p-Value | Coefficient | p-Value | Coefficient | p-Value |
Da Nang | ||||||||
IOD (lag, 1) | 2.676 | 0.0152 | 2.817 | 0.0298 | 2.205 | 0.001 | ||
MEI | 3.455 | 0.0071 | 3.416 | 0.0243 | 3.178 | <0.001 | ||
CI (lag, 3) | 2.968 | 0.0094 | 1.955 | 0.0094 | 3.107 | <0.001 | ||
AIC | 294.2421 | 300.8429 | 309.1359 | 411.4024 | ||||
∆AIC | 6.6008 | 14.8938 | 117.1603 | |||||
Khanh Hoa | ||||||||
IOD (lag, 1) | 2.203 | <0.001 | 1.901 | <0.001 | 2.877 | <0.001 | ||
MEI | 3.188 | <0.001 | 3.218 | <0.001 | 3.682 | <0.001 | ||
CI (lag, 1) | 1 | <0.001 | 2.865 | <0.001 | 1 | 0.001 | ||
AIC | 245.8264 | 258.581 | 273.5994 | 343.5945 | ||||
∆AIC | 12.7546 | 27.773 | 97.7681 |
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Nguyen, L.T.; Le, H.X.; Nguyen, D.T.; Ho, H.Q.; Chuang, T.-W. Impact of Climate Variability and Abundance of Mosquitoes on Dengue Transmission in Central Vietnam. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 2453. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17072453
Nguyen LT, Le HX, Nguyen DT, Ho HQ, Chuang T-W. Impact of Climate Variability and Abundance of Mosquitoes on Dengue Transmission in Central Vietnam. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(7):2453. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17072453
Chicago/Turabian StyleNguyen, Luong Thi, Huy Xuan Le, Dong Thanh Nguyen, Ha Quang Ho, and Ting-Wu Chuang. 2020. "Impact of Climate Variability and Abundance of Mosquitoes on Dengue Transmission in Central Vietnam" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 7: 2453. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17072453