Population Mobility Trends, Deprivation Index and the Spatio-Temporal Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ireland
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Design and COVID-19 Data
2.2. Mobile Phone Data
2.3. Statistical Analysis
2.3.1. Standardised Incidence Ratio (SIR)
2.3.2. Spatio-Temporal Models
2.3.3. Model Fitting
2.3.4. Model Selection
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Wave 1 2 March 2020–31 May 2020 | Wave 2 1 June 2020–30 November 2020 | Wave 3 1 December 2020–22 February 2021 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total N (%) | 24,957 (12.6) | 47,729 (24.1) | 125,586 (63.3) | |
Sex | f | 14,287 (57.2) | 24,131 (50.6) | 66,082 (52.6) |
m | 10,670 (42.8) | 23,598 (49.4) | 59,504 (47.4) | |
Age | 0−19 | 899 (3.6) | 10,655 (22.3) | 17,783 (14.2) |
20−39 | 7761 (31.1) | 17,922 (37.5) | 47,659 (37.9) | |
40−59 | 8564 (34.3) | 12,524 (26.2) | 38,196 (30.4) | |
60−79 | 4146 (16.6) | 5072 (10.6) | 16,028 (12.8) | |
80+ | 3587 (14.4) | 1556 (3.3) | 5920 (4.7) |
Model | DIC | WAIC | LPML | Dispersion Statistic |
---|---|---|---|---|
Deprivation quintile | 337,975 | 338,798 | −169,485 | 1.02 |
Log population density | 337,541 | 338,307 | −169,224 | 1.06 |
SHI % change | 334,401 | 335,148 | −167,659 | 0.98 |
Cubic spline (week) | 285,226 | 286,153 | −143,171 | 1.13 |
Persons per room | 337,944 | 338,776 | −169,478 | 1.01 |
Deprivation quintile + log population density + SHI % change | 333,869 | 334,537 | −167,329 | 1.03 |
Deprivation quintile + log population density + cubic spline (week) | 284,776 | 285,672 | −142,918 | 1.16 |
Deprivation quintile + SHI % change + cubic spline (week) | 281,942 | 282,899 | −141,538 | 1.15 |
Log population density + SHI % change + cubic spline (week) | 281,604 | 282,552 | −141,357 | 1.16 |
Deprivation quintile + log population density + SHI % change + cubic spline (week) | 281,595 | 282,537 | −141,348 | 1.16 |
Deprivation quintile + log population density + persons per room + cubic spline (week) | 284,764 | 285,658 | −142,911 | 1.16 |
Deprivation quintile + log population density + persons per room + SHI % change + cubic spline (week) | 281,583 | 282,523 | −141,340 | 1.16 |
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable | Mean | 95% Credible Interval | Mean | 95% Credible Interval | Mean | 95% Credible Interval |
Deprivation quintile 2 | 1.171 | 1.060–1.294 | 0.970 | 0.891–1.056 | 0.973 | 0.894–1.059 |
Deprivation quintile 3 | 1.360 | 1.225–1.510 | 1.025 | 0.937–1.121 | 1.044 | 0.955–1.142 |
Deprivation quintile 4 | 1.931 | 1.737–2.147 | 1.159 | 1.056–1.272 | 1.157 | 1.055–1.269 |
Deprivation quintile 5 | 3.819 | 3.406–4.281 | 1.210 | 1.077–1.357 | 1.262 | 1.126–1.414 |
Log population density | 1.985 | 1.915–2.058 | 1.926 | 1.860–1.996 | ||
Person per room | 10.411 | 5.264–22.533 | 11.822 | 5.954–26.231 | ||
SHI% change (per 5) | 0.879 | 0.875–0.883 | ||||
Spline term 1 | 2.207 | 2.100–2.320 | 2.220 | 2.113–2.333 | 1.084 | 1.025–1.145 |
Spline term 2 | 0.061 | 0.058–0.066 | 0.061 | 0.057–0.066 | 0.078 | 0.073–0.084 |
Spline term 3 | 0.124 | 0.117–0.132 | 0.124 | 0.117–0.132 | 0.215 | 0.202–0.228 |
Spline term 4 | 3.398 | 3.265–3.536 | 3.403 | 3.270–3.542 | 5.245 | 5.032–5.467 |
Spline term 5 | 2.254 | 2.172–2.339 | 2.259 | 2.176–2.344 | 2.903 | 2.797–3.014 |
Spline term 6 | 14.805 | 14.282–15.349 | 14.826 | 14.301–15.371 | 16.088 | 15.525–16.672 |
Spline term 7 | 5.915 | 5.657–6.186 | 5.907 | 5.649–6.178 | 3.942 | 3.769–4.123 |
Spatial hyperparameters | ||||||
σui | 1.162 | 1.081–250 | 0.861 | 0.804–0.922 | 0.815 | 0.754–0.878 |
σvi | 0.529 | 0.477–0.580 | 0.466 | 0.429–0.500 | 0.483 | 0.448–0.517 |
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Madden, J.M.; More, S.; Teljeur, C.; Gleeson, J.; Walsh, C.; McGrath, G. Population Mobility Trends, Deprivation Index and the Spatio-Temporal Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ireland. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 6285. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126285
Madden JM, More S, Teljeur C, Gleeson J, Walsh C, McGrath G. Population Mobility Trends, Deprivation Index and the Spatio-Temporal Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ireland. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(12):6285. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126285
Chicago/Turabian StyleMadden, Jamie M., Simon More, Conor Teljeur, Justin Gleeson, Cathal Walsh, and Guy McGrath. 2021. "Population Mobility Trends, Deprivation Index and the Spatio-Temporal Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ireland" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 12: 6285. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126285