Modeling Effects of Spatial Heterogeneities and Layered Exposure Interventions on the Spread of COVID-19 across New Jersey
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Background: Characterizing Pathways of COVID-19 Transmission
1.2. Modeling COVID-19: Computational Approaches
1.3. New Jersey as a “Microcosm” of COVID-19 Spread Heterogeneities
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Stochastic SEIR Model
2.2. Model Calibration
2.3. Simulation
3. Results
3.1. Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Deaths across New Jersey
3.2. Comparison of Predicted and Reported Confirmed Deaths
3.3. Realistic and Counterfactual Intervention Scenarios
4. Discussion
4.1. Spatially Heterogeneous Transmission Rate
4.2. Reproduction Number at County Level
4.3. Reducing COVID-19 Fatality by Layered Exposure-Relevant Interventions
4.4. Limitations
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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County/ State | Total Deaths | Deaths per 100,000 | Geographic Region | Total Deaths | Deaths per 100,000 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Jersey | 14,068 | 158 | |||||
Bergen | 1768 | 189 | Gateway Region | 8458 | 197 | ||
Essex | 1868 | 234 | |||||
Hudson | 1336 | 198 | |||||
Middlesex | 1218 | 147 | |||||
Passaic | 1098 | 218 | |||||
Union | 1170 | 210 | |||||
Monmouth | 763 | 123 | Shore Region | 1715 | 140 | ||
Ocean | 952 | 158 | |||||
Hunterdon | 69 | 55 | Skyland Region | 1559 | 130 | ||
Morris | 684 | 138 | |||||
Somerset | 487 | 147 | |||||
Sussex | 159 | 113 | |||||
Warren | 160 | 151 | |||||
Burlington | 440 | 99 | Delaware River Region | 1866 | 111 | ||
Camden | 541 | 107 | |||||
Gloucester | 211 | 72 | |||||
Mercer | 589 | 159 | |||||
Salem | 85 | 136 | |||||
Atlantic | 237 | 89 | Southern Shore Region | 470 | 92 | ||
Cape May | 90 | 97 | |||||
Cumberland | 143 | 95 |
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Ren, X.; Weisel, C.P.; Georgopoulos, P.G. Modeling Effects of Spatial Heterogeneities and Layered Exposure Interventions on the Spread of COVID-19 across New Jersey. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 11950. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182211950
Ren X, Weisel CP, Georgopoulos PG. Modeling Effects of Spatial Heterogeneities and Layered Exposure Interventions on the Spread of COVID-19 across New Jersey. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(22):11950. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182211950
Chicago/Turabian StyleRen, Xiang, Clifford P. Weisel, and Panos G. Georgopoulos. 2021. "Modeling Effects of Spatial Heterogeneities and Layered Exposure Interventions on the Spread of COVID-19 across New Jersey" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 22: 11950. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182211950