A Novel Score for Predicting Alzheimer’s Disease Risk from Late Life Psychopathological and Health Risk Factors
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Sample and Procedure
2.2. Diagnosis of Incident AD at Waves II and III
2.3. Risk Factors Assessed
2.3.1. Socio-Demographic Risk Factors
2.3.2. Psychological Risk Factors
2.3.3. Behavioral Risk Factors
2.3.4. Medical Risk Factors
2.4. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
Strengths and Limitations
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Follow-Up AD Status | Univariate Regression Model | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
No AD (N = 2959) | Incident AD (N = 85) | p-Value | SHR (95% CI) a | p-Value | |
Sociodemographic characteristics | |||||
Age (years) | 75.4 (7.7) | 84.2 (6.3) | <0.001 | 1.14 (1.12–1.17) | <0.001 |
Female sex | 1645 (55.6%) | 59 (69.4%) | 0.016 | 1.81 (1.14–2.87) | 0.012 |
Education (years) | 7.3 (3.8) | 5.9 (3.8) | 0.001 | 0.89 (0.82–0.96) | 0.003 |
Marital status (ref. single) | <0.001 | ||||
Married/in couple | 1690 (57.1%) | 25 (29.4%) | 2.06 (0.49–8.68) | 0.320 | |
Formerly married | 980 (33.1%) | 58 (68.2%) | 8.18 (2.00–33.39) | 0.003 | |
Psychological risk factors | |||||
Depression | 306 (10.3%) | 14 (16.4%) | 0.101 | 1.44 (0.81–2.55) | 0.210 |
Anxiety | 66 (2.2%) | 6 (7.0%) | 0.011 | 3.28 (1.43–7.54) | 0.005 |
Behavioral risk factors | |||||
Alcohol or Smoking | 758 (25.6%) | 20 (23.5%) | 0.757 | 0.90 (0.54–1.49) | 0.680 |
BMI | 26.9 (7.3) | 26.3 (5.3) | 0.463 | 0.63 (0.44–0.90) | 0.012 |
Medical risk factors | |||||
Diabetes | 395 (13.5%) | 10 (11.9%) | 0.803 | 0.87 (0.45–1.68) | 0.680 |
Hypertension | 2112 (71.5%) | 55 (64.7%) | 0.214 | 0.73 (0.47–1.15) | 0.170 |
Hearing loss | 22 (0.7%) | 2 (2.3%) | 0.304 | 3.17 (0.80–13.20) | 0.022 |
Angina | 177 (6.1%) | 4 (4.7%) | 0.776 | 0.75 (0.27–2.04) | 0.570 |
Myocardial infarction | 86 (3.0%) | 4 (4.8%) | 0.527 | 1.61 (0.59–4.38) | 0.350 |
Stroke | 171 (5.8%) | 5 (5.9%) | 0.845 | 1.04 (0.80–2.57) | 0.930 |
Variables | β Coefficient | SHR (95% CI) a | p-Value | Risk Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sociodemographic characteristics | ||||
Age | ||||
65–74 (n = 1584) | 0 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 0 | |
75–84 (n = 902) | 1.64 | 5.16 (2.32–11.50) | <0.001 | 11 |
Over 85 (n = 558) | 2.54 | 12.66 (5.71–28.06) | <0.001 | 17 |
Sex | ||||
Male (n = 1340) | 0 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 0 | |
Female (n = 1704) | 0.46 | 1.59 (0.92–2.74) | 0.096 | 3 |
Education (years) | ||||
Secondary or higher (n = 479) | 0 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 0 | |
Primary (n = 2275) | 0.23 | 1.26 (0.59–2.71) | 0.550 | 2 |
Illiterate (n = 266) | 1.08 | 2.95 (1.23–7.10) | 0.015 | 8 |
Marital status | ||||
Single (n = 284) | 0 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 0 | |
Married/in couple (n = 1715) | 1.26 | 3.51 (0.80–15.41) | 0.096 | 9 |
Formerly married (n = 1038) | 1.66 | 5.28 (1.27–22.00) | 0.022 | 11 |
Psychological risk factors | ||||
Depression | ||||
No case (n = 2674) | 0 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 0 | |
Case (n = 370) | 0.15 | 1.16 (0.64–2.12) | 0.630 | 1 |
Anxiety | ||||
No case (n = 2972) | 0 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 0 | |
Case (n = 72) | 1.20 | 3.32 (1.39–7.94) | 0.007 | 8 |
Behavioral risk factors | ||||
BMI | ||||
Overweight/Obesity (n = 2051) | 0 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 0 | |
Normal (n = 993) | 0.50 | 1.65 (1.04–2.63) | 0.034 | 4 |
Medical risk factors | ||||
Hearing loss | ||||
No case (n = 3014) | 0 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 0 | |
Case (n = 24) | 0.49 | 1.63 (0.35–7.47) | 0.530 | 4 |
Risk Score | Univariate Regression Model | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
No. at Risk a | Incident AD Cases (%) | SHR (95% CI) b | p-Value | |
0–14 | 954 | 4 (0.4%) | 1 (reference) | |
15–20 | 676 | 5 (0.7%) | 1.78 (0.48–6.63) | 0.390 |
21–28 | 714 | 17 (2.4%) | 5.78 (1.95–17.16) | 0.002 |
29+ | 663 | 59 (8.9%) | 22.61 (8.23–62.12) | <0.001 |
Risk Score | 5 yr AD Probability (%) |
---|---|
0–5 | 0.11 |
6–10 | 0.24 |
11–15 | 0.49 |
16–20 | 1.02 |
21–25 | 2.13 |
26–30 | 4.41 |
31–35 | 9.01 |
36–40 | 17.92 |
41–45 | 33.82 |
46–50 | 57.81 |
50+ | 83.54 |
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Santabárbara, J.; Bueno-Notivol, J.; Lipnicki, D.M.; de la Cámara, C.; López-Antón, R.; Lobo, A.; Gracia-García, P. A Novel Score for Predicting Alzheimer’s Disease Risk from Late Life Psychopathological and Health Risk Factors. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 1802. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041802
Santabárbara J, Bueno-Notivol J, Lipnicki DM, de la Cámara C, López-Antón R, Lobo A, Gracia-García P. A Novel Score for Predicting Alzheimer’s Disease Risk from Late Life Psychopathological and Health Risk Factors. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(4):1802. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041802
Chicago/Turabian StyleSantabárbara, Javier, Juan Bueno-Notivol, Darren M. Lipnicki, Concepción de la Cámara, Raúl López-Antón, Antonio Lobo, and Patricia Gracia-García. 2021. "A Novel Score for Predicting Alzheimer’s Disease Risk from Late Life Psychopathological and Health Risk Factors" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 4: 1802. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041802