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Article

Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii

by
Thomas H. Lee
1,2,
Bobby Do
1,
Levi Dantzinger
1,
Joshua Holmes
1,
Monique Chyba
3,
Steven Hankins
4,
Edward Mersereau
5,
Kenneth Hara
6 and
Victoria Y. Fan
1,7,*
1
Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
2
Hawaii Data Collaborative, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA
3
Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
4
John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA
5
Behavioral Health Administration, Hawaii Department of Health, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA
6
Hawaii Department of Defense, Honolulu, HI 96816, USA
7
Center for Global Development, Washington, DC 20036, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19(10), 6119; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106119
Submission received: 29 March 2022 / Revised: 9 May 2022 / Accepted: 12 May 2022 / Published: 18 May 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Diagnosis Tools and Epidemiologic Profile of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19))
Review Reports Versions Notes

Abstract

In the face of great uncertainty and a global crisis from COVID-19, mathematical and epidemiologic COVID-19 models proliferated during the pandemic. Yet, many models were not created with the explicit audience of policymakers, the intention of informing specific scenarios, or explicit communication of assumptions, limitations, and complexities. This study presents a case study of the roles, uses, and approaches to COVID-19 modeling and forecasting in one state jurisdiction in the United States. Based on an account of the historical real-world events through lived experiences, we first examine the specific modeling considerations used to inform policy decisions. Then, we review the real-world policy use cases and key decisions that were informed by modeling during the pandemic including the role of modeling in informing planning for hospital capacity, isolation and quarantine facilities, and broad public communication. Key lessons are examined through the real-world application of modeling, noting the importance of locally tailored models, the role of a scientific and technical advisory group, and the challenges of communicating technical considerations to a public audience.
Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; modeling; epidemiology; isolation and quarantine; media and communication; public health planning; governance; hospital; pandemic preparedness COVID-19; pandemic; modeling; epidemiology; isolation and quarantine; media and communication; public health planning; governance; hospital; pandemic preparedness

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Lee, T.H.; Do, B.; Dantzinger, L.; Holmes, J.; Chyba, M.; Hankins, S.; Mersereau, E.; Hara, K.; Fan, V.Y. Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 6119. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106119

AMA Style

Lee TH, Do B, Dantzinger L, Holmes J, Chyba M, Hankins S, Mersereau E, Hara K, Fan VY. Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(10):6119. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106119

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lee, Thomas H., Bobby Do, Levi Dantzinger, Joshua Holmes, Monique Chyba, Steven Hankins, Edward Mersereau, Kenneth Hara, and Victoria Y. Fan. 2022. "Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 10: 6119. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106119

APA Style

Lee, T. H., Do, B., Dantzinger, L., Holmes, J., Chyba, M., Hankins, S., Mersereau, E., Hara, K., & Fan, V. Y. (2022). Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(10), 6119. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106119

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