1. Introduction
The United Nations (UN) classifies people aged 60 years and above as older adults. For the year 2016, the global ageing population for this group was estimated as 12.4%. By the year 2050, it is anticipated that this number will increase to approximately 1.3 billion individuals [
1]. Applying the same UN definition, the Malaysian Department of Statistics reported that in 2020, 3.5 million (or 10.7%) of the Malaysian population were in the older adult category [
2]. The threats faced by ageing populations, in terms of falling ill, encountering accidents, or death, differ from populations in a younger chronological age category [
3]. The increased health risk factors for older adults, make it essential to identify these factors, so that early remedial action can be taken. The accelerating expansion of the elderly population, has led to a growing need to promptly determine the predictors, which could elucidate the mortality risk faced by older adults. This will reduce the incidence of an untimely terminal consequence. According to relevant literature, the mortality predictors among older adults within a stipulated time frame are indisputably age and gender [
4]. The predictors for mortality, identified through previous investigations, include issues, such as hospitalisation, capability for performing daily routines, cognitive deficit, lifestyle factors (i.e., indulgence in smoking and lack of a regular exercise routine), depression tolerance, the occurrence of a life-threatening disease, such as cancer, loneliness, lack of support from family members, the individual’s socioeconomic status, and negative self-assessment of health [
5,
6,
7,
8].
Luy and Gast [
9] conducted a meta-analysis and identified educational level, socioeconomic standing, salary, social network, employment, and health education as the factors contributing to higher death rates among men. Indeed, as early as the middle of the eighteenth, it was established that in terms of an early death, men are at greater risk compared to women [
9]. Previous investigations also found that conduct or social issues contribute to higher mortality rates in men, which include smoking, alcoholism, addiction to drugs, laxity with regards to medical needs, lack of knowledge in terms of health issues, a lethargic lifestyle, an irresponsible and risky driving attitude, and a lack of devotion to religion [
10,
11]. Additionally, men with a childhood entrenched in a family disadvantaged by an inferior socioeconomic standing are at greater risk of suffering cardiovascular related deaths, due to unfortunate experiences, including a lack of family closeness, food deprivation, parents with a smoking habit, and physical or emotional abuse [
4,
11].
Nevertheless, not many population-based studies have reported mortality risk derived from objectively measured clinical or subclinical parameters, particularly among a multi-ethnic Asian population such as Malaysia. Thus, we aimed to investigate the predictors for mortality among community-dwelling older adults in Malaysia in a 5-years longitudinal study using a wide range of factors, including clinical or subclinical.
3. Results
Of the 2322 respondents in this study, a total of 1986 (85.6%) respondents were alive and 336 (14.4%) were reported dead after five years of follow-up.
Table 1 presents the cause of death of the respondents, where most of them died due to ageing-related sickness (43.8%).
The five-year cumulative incidence of mortality was 14.4%. The observed incidence rate of mortality within the five years period was 2.9 per 100 person-years.
Figure 2 depicts the estimated age-specific incidence rate of mortality from the baseline to the five years follow-up. In the age group of 60–64 years, the rates increased with age from 1.5 per 100 person-years to 1.9 per 100 person-years in the 65–69 years age group. Then, the rates substantially increased to 3.2 per 100 person-years in the 70–74 years age group, to 5.3 per 100 person-years in the 75–79 years age group, 6.3 per 100 person-years for 80–84 age group and 10.6 per 100 person-years in the age group of 85 years and above. The incidence rate of mortality was estimated to increase two-fold with an increase in age by 10 years.
Table 2 presents the respondents’ baseline characteristics who were alive and those who died after five years of follow up. In comparison to respondents who were alive after five years, those who died were found to be older, male, Malay, non-married, living alone, having lower mean years of education, having a lower household income, smokers, diagnosed with type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, stroke, heart disease and gout (
p < 0005).
As shown in
Table 3, the systolic blood pressure, waist-hip ratio, fasting blood sugar were significantly higher, while the weight, body mass index, mid-upper arm circumference, calf circumference, hip circumference, skeletal muscle mass and serum albumin were significantly lower among respondents who died earlier as compared to those who were alive (
p < 0.003).
Respondents who had a lower physical fitness (chair sit and reach, 2-min step, chair stand, timed-up-and-go (TUG) and back scratch tests) and IADL score and a poorer cognitive assessments (MMSE, Digit span, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT), Digit Symbol, VR I, and VR II) had died as compared to those who were alive after five years (
p < 0.003) (
Table 4).
With regards to the dietary intake (
Table 5), almost all respondents did not meet the Malaysian recommended nutrient intake for total fibre, vitamin K, niacin, pyridoxine, folate, calcium, zinc, copper and magnesium intake. Energy intake appeared to be significantly lower in respondents who died as compared to those who were alive after five years (
p < 0.05). Furthermore, total fibre, vitamin C, vitamin D, riboflavin, niacin, folate, iron, selenium, copper, and magnesium were significantly lower among respondents who died as compared to those who were alive after five years (
p < 0.002). Whilst, the dietary intake of the respondents based on gender was presented in
Table S1.
As displayed in
Table 6, the results from the Cox regression analysis indicated that smoking (Adj HR = 1.314, 95% CI: 1.004–1.721,
p < 0.05), a higher fasting blood sugar (Adj HR = 1.075, 95% CI: 1.029–1.166,
p < 0.01), a lower serum albumin (Adj HR = 0.947, 95% CI: 0.905–0.990,
p < 0.01), a longer time to complete the TUG test (Adj HR = 1.059, 95% CI: 1.022–1.098,
p < 0.001), and low intake of total fibre (Adj HR = 0.911, 95% CI: 0.873–0.980,
p < 0.01) were the predictors of mortality in this study. Notably, after adjusting the confounding variables, the odds ratio of all potential variables in predicting mortality was reduced but remained as significant predictors of the mortality incidence. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with the area under the curve score (AUC = 76.7%) reflected the accuracy of the final model with good sensitivity (85.8%) and specificity (85.5%) for predicting mortality among community-dwelling older adults.
The survival functions of different variable grouping factors of the respondents are illustrated in
Figure 3a–e.
4. Discussion
This study successfully estimated the incidence rate of mortality of 2.9 per 100 person-years among older adults in Malaysia. In other words, for every 100 respondents involved in this study, it is estimated that three older adults will die per year, which is slightly higher than the mortality rate reported among Singaporean older adults (2.67 per 100 person-years) [
26]. It is noteworthy that the studies on the incidence rate of mortality are not widely reported, particularly among multi-ethnic Malaysian older adults. A cohort study conducted among older adults in the United Kingdom reported a higher all-cause mortality rate with 11 per 100 person-years for fallers and 16.8 per 100 person-years for recurrent falls after three years [
27]. On the contrary, a China cohort study found that the mortality incidence rate was 0.7 per 100 person-years among Chinese older adults after 12-years follow-up [
28], which is lower in comparison to the present result. The variation in the incidence rate might be influenced by the geographic settings, follow-up time, sample size and different health diagnoses considered among the studied population. An increasing age-adjusted trend in mortality was also observed among Malaysian older adults, probably associated with the pace of ageing considering that physiological deterioration increases as people age [
29].
In terms of the risk of death, age is frequently deemed a compelling predictor. This could be attributed to the fact that the probability of contracting a lingering ailment, or succumbing to incapacitation, increases in tandem with ageing [
30]. This is in agreement with the results from our investigation, which indicate that the probability of mortality, increases with each passing year among Malaysian older adults. Similarly, functional capacity also fades with time, thus escalating the vulnerability to health issues, and the likelihood of death [
4]. Reliance on assistance, when it comes to the performance of activities of daily living (such as food consumption, cleaning up, getting dressed, and toilet visits), also increases with age. To compound matters, ageing also increases the incidence of chronic health issues, which include hypertension, diabetes and osteoarticular diseases [
31,
32]. The data derived from this study revealed that the mortality incidence rate can be anticipated to double with each 10-year increase in age. This translates into a 50% increase in the risk of death after 10 years. In the context of developed countries, the risk of death rises by 50% for every five-year increase in age [
4,
33].
Smoking-related ailments (including cardiovascular diseases and cancer), have long been identified, as significant mortality risk factors. A systematic review by Müezzinler et al. [
34] compiled the results from 22 studies to report joint mortality of >100% and more than one-third, for current and former smokers, respectively, compared to those who never indulged such habits. In the context of mortality advancement, these rates can be interpreted as 6.7 and 2.6 years for current and former smokers, respectively [
35]. Efforts to reduce smoking and promote smoking cessation even at an older age are likely to bear a major public health impact [
36]. Thus, it is clear, that the effects of smoking are undoubtedly a major mortality risk factor, for those aged 60 and above. Given the health hazards associated to smoking, serious efforts ought to be in the pipeline, to significantly curb smoking habits in all age groups to substantially reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this indulgence.
Multiple potential risk factors explain the high mortality observed in older adults with high fasting blood sugar. A high glucose reading among older adults, particularly those afflicted with diabetes mellitus, raises the mortality risk considerably [
37,
38]. Accordingly, our investigations revealed that for older adults with diabetes, the risk of mortality can increase by 1.293. It is apparent, that the pathophysiological impairment related to chronic hyperglycaemia, stemming from the glucotoxic and lipotoxic setting, which come together in diabetes, is the main instigator of mortality [
39]. This situation recurs for the cause of death among individuals with chronic hyperglycaemia, with cardiovascular disease being the most prevalent [
40]. Previous studies have revealed the association between chronic hyperglycaemia and the increased risk of end-organ problems, such as retinopathy and kidney disease [
41]. These events emphasise the progressive effects on microvascular dysfunction, which could lead to an increased mortality risk among older adults saddled with long-term diabetes [
39]. The Clinical Practice Guidelines for Malaysian older adults, offers general diabetic management recommendations, which are imperative for slowing down the advancement of macrovascular and microvascular complications that might ultimately culminate in mortality [
42].
Additionally, serum albumin was one of the mortality predictors for older adults in this study. A drop in 1 g/L of serum albumin raises the probability of mortality occurrence by 7.4%. A predictive warning for the onset of disability and mortality is reflected when serum albumin decreases in older adults either in a communal or medical setting. A previous study reported that hypoalbuminemia was associated with 70% mortality risk, and this risk remained unchanged for those without normalisation of albumin. Meanwhile, the normalisation of albumin levels was associated with lower mortality risk (51%) [
43]. Hypoalbuminemia was associated with long-term chronic malnutrition in older adults which was caused by a decline in food consumption [
43]. A decrease in the sense of smell and taste, fluctuations in the hormones that control gastric and intestinal motility, as well as alterations in temperament (including depression, loneliness and dementia) were the most significant sources of geriatric anorexia [
44,
45]. While the link between serum albumin and mortality calls for thorough investigations, it is important that the clinical decisions arrived at, are not confined to any solitary parameter. Thus, the deficiency in serum albumin can be rectified through an appropriate nutritional intervention, which will consequently decrease the occurrence of mortality among older adults.
According to the results, from the timed-up and go (TUG) test we conducted, those with a poor TUG performance face an increased susceptibility to mortality. This is in agreement with the results attained through previous studies in this area [
46,
47,
48]. It was observed that a single-unit climb, in the TUG test, raised the probability of mortality substantially. The TUG test is recommended as a single measurement procedure, to distinguish older adults prone to life-threatening consequences [
49]. The comorbidity burden among older adults, identified through the TUG test, emphasizes the importance of the various interactions among several diverse body systems (this includes the nervous, cardio-pulmonary and musculoskeletal system), with regards to synchronisation of movement and stability [
50,
51]. A reduced gait pace, for instance, is an indication of sub-clinical cerebrovascular disease, even among high-level performing older adults [
48,
51]. Walking speed, a crucial component of TUG, is taken into consideration, to identify fundamental biological changes, as well as analysed and unanalysed ailments [
52]. Walking speed is also a measurement of energy level, as the act of walking, exerts strains on the performance and structures of the body [
53].
In terms of dietary intake, we discovered that the respondents did not fulfil the Recommended Nutrient Intake [
54] for total dietary fibre, vitamin K, niacin, pyridoxine, folate, calcium, zinc, copper and magnesium, as prescribed through previous studies, conducted by Malaysian researchers [
54,
55]. We observed that a decrease in fibre consumption, by 1 g, raises the risk of mortality incidence by 8.9%. The results from our investigations revealed that the total fibre intake, of older respondents, is substantially below the recommended level of 20 to 30 g/day [
56]. Fibre plays a significant role in reducing the mortality incidence by: (a) lowering the cholesterol level, (b) bringing down the blood pressure level, (c) sensitising insulin, (d) generally improving glycaemic management, and (e) inducing anti-inflammatory properties [
57,
58]. These biological effects, which can be linked to the reducing of risk with regards to several prominent chronic ailments (including cardiovascular diseases and cancer), serve as protection against the incidence of mortality [
59]. Furthermore, an increase in the intake of soluble and insoluble fibre lessens the risk of all-cause mortality [
60].
There are several strengths of the current study. First, this study uses numerous of parameters to measure anthropometry, cognitive function, psychosocial status, physical function and dietary intake as possible predictors for mortality in older adults. Second, this study involved a five years longitudinal study from four different regions in Malaysia, comprising a big sample size population and a good representation of the Malaysian older population. However, this study also has several limitations. The medical illness of the respondents was obtained using self-reported questionnaire. Although in the presence of such limitations, the findings may be useful in some way. These data are useful to understand the causes of premature death which is an important step toward the design of future research and public health policy in this field. Malaysian food composition in nutritionist pro is incomplete in terms of vitamin D, E, K, folate, selenium, copper, and magnesium. Hence, the results of this study can make a better health care policy and intervention for the ageing population. It is useful for healthcare professionals and caregivers for the early detection of disease risk and health status in older adults.