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Volume 19
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Article

An Integrated Spatial Autoregressive Model for Analyzing and Simulating Urban Spatial Growth in a Garden City, China

by
Bingkui Qiu
1,
Min Zhou
2,*,
Yang Qiu
3,
Shuhan Liu
2,
Guoliang Ou
4,
Chaonan Ma
2,
Jiating Tu
2 and
Siqi Li
2
1
Department of Tourism Management, Jin Zhong University, Jinzhong 033619, China
2
College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
3
Department of Economics, University College of London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
4
School of Construction and Environmental Engineering, Shenzhen Polytechnic, Shenzhen 518055, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19(18), 11732; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191811732
Submission received: 24 July 2022 / Revised: 10 September 2022 / Accepted: 14 September 2022 / Published: 17 September 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Integration of Land-Use Planning and Management with Environmental and Public Health Impact Assessment)
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Abstract

In the past, the research on models related to urban land-use change and prediction was greatly complicated by the high precision of models. When planning some garden cities, we should explore a more applicable, specific, and effective macro approach than the community-level one. In this study, a model consisting of spatial autoregressive (SAR), cellular automata (CA), and Markov chains is constructed. One It can well-consider the spatial autocorrelation and integrate the advantages of CA into a geographical simulation to find the driving forces behind the expansion of a garden city. This framework has been applied to the urban planning and development of Chengdu, China. The research results show that the application of the SAR model shows the development trend in the southeast region and the needs to optimize the central region and protect the western region as an ecological reserve. The descriptive statistics and the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals are reliable. The influence of spatial variables from strong to weak is distance to water, slope, population density, GDP, distance to main roads, distance to railways, and distance to the center of the county (district). Taking 2005 as the initial year, the land-use situation in 2015 was simulated and compared with the actual land-use situation. It seems that the Kappa coefficient of the construction-land simulation is 0.7634, with high accuracy. Therefore, the land use in 2025 and 2035 is further simulated, which provides a reference for garden cities to formulate a reasonable urban space development strategy.
Keywords: urban spatial growth simulation; GIS; cellular automata; spatial autoregressive; Chengdu urban spatial growth simulation; GIS; cellular automata; spatial autoregressive; Chengdu

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MDPI and ACS Style

Qiu, B.; Zhou, M.; Qiu, Y.; Liu, S.; Ou, G.; Ma, C.; Tu, J.; Li, S. An Integrated Spatial Autoregressive Model for Analyzing and Simulating Urban Spatial Growth in a Garden City, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 11732. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191811732

AMA Style

Qiu B, Zhou M, Qiu Y, Liu S, Ou G, Ma C, Tu J, Li S. An Integrated Spatial Autoregressive Model for Analyzing and Simulating Urban Spatial Growth in a Garden City, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(18):11732. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191811732

Chicago/Turabian Style

Qiu, Bingkui, Min Zhou, Yang Qiu, Shuhan Liu, Guoliang Ou, Chaonan Ma, Jiating Tu, and Siqi Li. 2022. "An Integrated Spatial Autoregressive Model for Analyzing and Simulating Urban Spatial Growth in a Garden City, China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 18: 11732. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191811732

APA Style

Qiu, B., Zhou, M., Qiu, Y., Liu, S., Ou, G., Ma, C., Tu, J., & Li, S. (2022). An Integrated Spatial Autoregressive Model for Analyzing and Simulating Urban Spatial Growth in a Garden City, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(18), 11732. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191811732

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